concordtom said:

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Oh.
Thx for the value add.

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Yw. Fyi, I don't consider your exaggerations to add value to discussions. Personally, I would appreciate more scoring and agree that the goals could be a little wider and higher or the off-sides rule to allow the offensive player to be on-side if any bodypart is even with the second to last defender.

Good to know you do like some of my proposals, as well as one of your own.

What's one of my exaggerations you don't like?
5% 0-0 is too many, by far. I never stated a figure for it, did I?

What % of premier league games end with the following number of combined goals scored:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10


Here's the approximate percentage of Premier League matches that finish with each total (combined) number of goals.

These figures are based on long-term historical averages (38-game seasons, ~380 matches per season, typical mean 2.7-2.8 goals per game).



Percentage of Matches by Total Goals

Total Goals % of Matches (Approx.)
0: 7-8%
1: 20-22%
2: 23-25%
3: 20-22%
4: 13-15%
5: 6-7%
6: 2-3%
7: ~1%
8: ~0.3%
9: ~0.1%
10: <0.05%




What This Means
2 goals total is historically the most common outcome.
Roughly 65-70% of matches end with 2 or 3 goals or fewer.
Very high-scoring games (7+ goals) are rare.
10-goal matches have occurred only a handful of times in Premier League history.

concordtom said:

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Good to know you do like some of my proposals, as well as one of your own.

What's one of my exaggerations you don't like?
5% 0-0 is too many, by far. I never stated a figure for it, did I?

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"it's not such a beautiful game. What's so great about having 20 top athletes fail to score for 90 minutes and thus have a game decided by a simulated penalty dive or kicks from the mark?"

Why bother writing this if it happens only 3% of the time? It is either poor writing or purposeful hyperbole.

Hyperbole is fine to make a point.
I don't think you need to be so oppositional when you agreed with the point, which is that the sport could use some more scoring.

It was illuminating to get the actual stats. And you initiated that, thank you.

0-0, 0-1, 1-1
These are all failures to score.

I suggest removing set piece goals from consideration:
Penalties
Corners
Free kicks outside the box

Goals scored in the run of play are far too rare!

We need to see heroic dribbling, long runs with the ball around and past players, or sharp passing combinations, and they just don't happen often enough to call the game Beautiful.

Debating in slow motion whether a defender left his toe out too long to catch the guy running by him is not beautiful.

These runs ARE beautiful, though the first run would be canceling as handling today - they fixed at least one thing! Progress.

What percentage of goals are scored off set pieces (pk, corner, free kicks outside of box)


In the Premier League, the long-term averages over recent seasons look roughly like this:

% of Goals from Set Pieces

Type of Goal % of All Goals (Approx.)
Penalties (PK) 9-11%
Corners 10-13%
Direct free kicks (outside box) 2-4%
Other indirect free kicks 3-5%
Total Set Pieces Combined 25-30%




Big Picture
Roughly 1 in 4 goals in the Premier League comes from a set piece.
Corners have become increasingly important in recent years due to specialist coaching.
Direct free kicks are relatively rare compared to the early 2000s.
Penalty rates fluctuate year-to-year (VAR caused a spike in 2019-20).

I'd have thought set pieces would be 33-50%

One good proposal for dealing with 0-0 ties is teams get 0 points instead of 1 for a scoreless tie.

The average # of goals scored is just under 3 actually, and for every goal scored there are about 3-4 near goals, so you get an exciting play every 7-9min or so, on average. And if you know and like the game, the rest of the action is not just filler.

One proposal to replace the PK shootouts would be to go the hockey route and take out 1 player from each side every 5 or 10 minutes in overtime. One problem with this, is that with small teams the counterattack becomes lethal (see the hockey final yesterday) so teams could just sit back, but on the other hand teams with offensive stars would attack as they have more space to operate and score.

I like time of possession in attacking half. Or even anywhere in the field. It forces teams to do something other than bunker. It gets players tired. Goals happen when fatigue sets in and mistakes are made.

I've never heard anyone seriously propose this as a tiebreaker.

Running out of defensive shell to get possession opens the field up for goals to be scored.


Maybe you do
3 points for a win
2 points for a tie with the ToP advantage
1 point for a tie without the ToP advantage
0 for a loss


It would have to be tested in some league for a couple seasons in order for strategies to get figured out, and problems to emerge, which would prompt further improvement.

Big C said:

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I'm envious of all y'all who appreciate and love soccer. My daughter is on a club and will start high school next year, but I'm a late Baby Boomer, didn't grow up with the sport and, try as I might, just can't get really into it.

The sports I grew up watching and dabbling in, baseball, football, basketball, track and field and boxing, I just have this deeper understanding of that I will never have for soccer (unless my daughter ends up getting really good, instead of just decent). My loss; I have no doubt that it's a "beautiful game".

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Maybe you have not watched the right game. Barcelona and Madrid are playing on 5/10 (time TBD but probably noon pacific and definitely on a Disney channel). Watch that and tell me you are not into it and I will believe you.

Yes the bunkering in modern soccer is bad. It is rare to have two teams attacking in the same game. I think the solution is something like illegal defense, you can't have too many players in positions that are too defensive. It would be hard to catch without the players wearing sensors, but they are already wearing them to track their movements. I also think back passes to the goalie's feet should only be allowed if the goalie is outside the box. That would incentivize pressure defense over bunkering.

But as someone who had played on and off for 50 years just watching the skills of the top players is enough to keep me very entertained no matter the score or anything else. And the continuous action makes it superior to any other sport.

I think the game is fine as it is, less defensive than it used to be in the 90s.

One new wrinkle would be to substitute shootouts starting with 1 attacker say 30m out, 1 defender inside the box with his goalie and 30s for the attacker to score, attempt ends after 30s or if ball goes out of bounds or in GK's possession. Much more challenging than a PK and requires solid skills to score.

Cal88 said:

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I think the game is fine as it is, less defensive than it used to be in the 90s.

One new wrinkle would be to substitute shootouts starting with 1 attacker say 30m out, 1 defender inside the box with his goalie and 30s for the attacker to score, attempt ends after 30s or if ball goes out of bounds or in GK's possession. Much more challenging than a PK and requires solid skills to score.

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When I was a kid playing soccer in Montclair, Oakland had a protein that I think was called the stompers. They had one big name, shep messing,

Our soccer team went to the Colosseum and it ended in a tie, and they had a modified shootout as you described, but with no additional defender.

As you described it, I think it would be utterly impossible. The format back, then was the offensive player got the ball at midfield and the goalie started on his goal line, and the two grand towards each other. He attack her head to always be moving forward, and the goalie would not come so far out that the ball could be chipped over his head. Usually the action occurred with the goalkeeper at the PK spot, and the attacker driving the ball fast on the left or right. I don't know what the conversion percentage was, but if you added a defender into that scenario, you can forget about it.

sluggo said:

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Big C said:

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I'm envious of all y'all who appreciate and love soccer. My daughter is on a club and will start high school next year, but I'm a late Baby Boomer, didn't grow up with the sport and, try as I might, just can't get really into it.

The sports I grew up watching and dabbling in, baseball, football, basketball, track and field and boxing, I just have this deeper understanding of that I will never have for soccer (unless my daughter ends up getting really good, instead of just decent). My loss; I have no doubt that it's a "beautiful game".

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Maybe you have not watched the right game. Barcelona and Madrid are playing on 5/10 (time TBD but probably noon pacific and definitely on a Disney channel). Watch that and tell me you are not into it and I will believe you.

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I have a good friend who lives north of Madrid in San Sebastian de los Reyes.
He is a Barca fan. Some of his friends are Atletico. They sometimes send me videos of them having bbq and beers at his house with the games on - the way we do with NFL.

One time he flew to Barcelona for the game vs real so that his son could see Messi.

I get it. I enjoy all the WC games, it will be great.
I just hate watching too many games that are epic battles and then nothing happens. Like, let's open it up so there could be a big finish, ya know?


I once listened to a podcast about prostate cancer and a guy telling his testimonial said that after his treatment he was still able to get an erection and have an orgasm, but there was no big finish, and that felt a bit difficult for him. He described it as if he had one of these guns.



Perhaps that's what a soccer game without goals is like.
You need goals to cheer and get the back and forth of emotions

Anyways, the horse I'm beating (no pun intended) is dead.

Hahaha.
Sorry, that just slipped out.

There is finally US Soccer national team news. The US team will play friendlies a week from Saturday (3/28) against Belgium and a week from Tuesday (3/31) against Portugal. Both are good teams, particularly Portugal, and with the World Cup starting in June, the US team will basically be the US team for the Cup.

The chosen players are below. Two starters, Sergino Dest at right back and Tyler Adams at defensive midfielder, are injured. Noahkai Banks, who should be a starting center back, can't decide whether to play for the US or Germany so he will probably skip the World Cup. My guess at the current starting team, which assumes a 4-2-3-1 formation:
GK: Freese
LB: A. Robinson
LCB: Ream (a disaster)
RCB: Richards
RB: Freeman (son of Antonio Freeman)
Defensive midfielder: Tessman (offered a placekicking scholarship by Godfather Dabo Swinney but turned it down to become a professional soccer player, but maybe like Brandon Aubrey he can go back)
Defensive midfielder: Reyna (or Cardoso)
Offensive midfielder: McKennie (this season one of the best players in the world)
LW: Pulisic
CF: Balogun
RW: Weah

And due to the emergence of some young players this year, I think the US will competitive with anyone in 2030. I have waited this long, I can wait four more years.

GOALKEEPERS (4): Chris Brady (Chicago Fire; 0/0), Roman Celentano (FC Cincinnati; 0/0), Matt Freese (New York City FC; 13/0), Matt Turner (New England Revolution; 52/0)
DEFENDERS (9): Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew; 16/1), Alex Freeman (Villarreal/ESP; 13/2), Mark McKenzie (Toulouse/FRA; 25/0), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC; 79/1), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace/ENG; 35/3), Antonee Robinson (Fulham/ENG; 50/4), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati; 38/3), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach/GER; 22/0), Auston Trusty (Celtic/SCO; 5/0)
MIDFIELDERS (8): Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps/CAN; 9/1), Johnny Cardoso (Atletico Madrid/ESP; 22/0), Weston McKennie (Juventus/ITA; 62/11), Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough/ENG; 13/0), Gio Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach/GER; 34/9), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders; 43/0), Tanner Tessmann (Olympique Lyon/FRA; 12/1); Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen/GER; 26/3)
FORWARDS (6): Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United/ENG; 56/9); Patrick Agyemang (Derby County/ENG; 12/5), Folarin Balogun (Monaco/FRA; 23/8), Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven/NED; 34/13), Christian Pulisic (AC Milan/ITA; 82/32), Tim Weah (Olympique Marseille/FRA; 47/7)

USMNT group has Paraguay, Australia, and I presume a Euro team (one of Italy, Czechia, Ireland, Poland etc), top 2 advance? (new expanded format)

Cal88 said:

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USMNT group has Paraguay, Australia, and I presume a Euro team (one of Italy, Czechia, Ireland, Poland etc), top 2 advance? (new expanded format)

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That is correct except the European teams are Turkiye, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo, as the winner of a particular bracket of UEFA will be added. Historically we would prefer Romania or Kosovo, but I can't say I know how good any of these teams are right now.

None of the teams in the group are a layup, but the US should be favored to win the group, I think.

(And when did Turkey become Turkiye, I missed the announcement.)

Thx for your soccer news!!!

So you are saying Adams and Dest will NOT play in the WC?? Or injured just for these upcoming friendlies?

Turkiye has been a couple few years now.
It does make one laugh!

I think with the expanded format teams must squeeze more games in so there is an advantage to bring a deep squad and resting and rotating players.

We want to win easily and be well prepared for later rounds. Ideally.

It's a strategy for coaches to select their starters - especially for teams that go deep!!

concordtom said:

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Thx for your soccer news!!!

So you are saying Adams and Dest will NOT play in the WC?? Or injured just for these upcoming friendlies?

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They are out for friendlies. Both will potentially come back, but they also both have extensive injury histories.

I used to read ASN regularly.
And in this article, I see that my guy, Yunus Musah is left off simply for lack of that killer instinct.

Sadly, I guess I have to agree. He's a wonderful talent, but he doesn't push the envelope and make those daring moves I think he's capable of. Like, it'll flash here and there, but then he retreats into the game again.

Too defensive of a mindset.
I remember when Ponch first came in, they put him up as an offensive winger in order to take of defenders and finish.
I guess it's just not his mindset.

Well, that's sad. I've been hoping for Yunus to flash as a star. Now it appears he is forever finished as a US National.

http://www.americansoccernow.com/articles/full-breakdown-pochettino-names-final-roster-before-world-cup

concordtom said:

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I used to read ASN regularly.
And in this article, I see that my guy, Yunus Musah is left off simply for lack of that killer instinct.

Sadly, I guess I have to agree. He's a wonderful talent, but he doesn't push the envelope and make those daring moves I think he's capable of. Like, it'll flash here and there, but then he retreats into the game again.

Too defensive of a mindset.
I remember when Ponch first came in, they put him up as an offensive winger in order to take of defenders and finish.
I guess it's just not his mindset.

Well, that's sad. I've been hoping for Yunus to flash as a star. Now it appears he is forever finished as a US National.

http://www.americansoccernow.com/articles/full-breakdown-pochettino-names-final-roster-before-world-cup

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I also used to read ASN regularly. Now I read Bigsoccer, where the editor of ASN posts, or twitter/X.

Things look bad for Musah. Right now he is behind Aidan Morris, Sebastian Berhalter and Christian Roldan as a midfielder, and one of those guys is probably dropped when Tyler Adams comes back. And he might be behind Jack McGlynn, who has a fantastic long distance shot but nothing else. And possibly others.

Musah broke through in Spain at Valencia when he was 17. And he has not gotten better. Actually, I think he is probably worse and he is heavier now and probably slower. He is only 23, so he is not finished. There will be a new manager in 2030, Poch is just through the Cup, and that manager might like Musah better. Musah is one of the two players I would have included that did not make it for these games.

Musah is still probably the best dribbler on the team, but he is famous for not scoring or making a good pass after beating people off the dribble. He also sometimes plays a more defensive position, but he is not as rugged a tackler as Adams or Tessman. He is kind of like McKennie in that he can do everything, but McKennie is great at everything and Musah is merely good at everything. He does not really have a position.

The other missing play is Xavier Gozo, an 18-year-old winger/wingback who plays for Salt Lake in MLS. I think he is the fastest US player I have ever seen, and this year his skills have caught up with athleticism. I think I read he was headed to Aston Villa, who are now 4th in the Premier League. He is going to be a huge star. I would want him at the end of the game when everyone was tired.

concordtom said:

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I used to read ASN regularly.
And in this article, I see that my guy, Yunus Musah is left off simply for lack of that killer instinct.

Sadly, I guess I have to agree. He's a wonderful talent, but he doesn't push the envelope and make those daring moves I think he's capable of. Like, it'll flash here and there, but then he retreats into the game again.

Too defensive of a mindset.
I remember when Ponch first came in,

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1977?

Cal88 said:

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concordtom said:

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I used to read ASN regularly.
And in this article, I see that my guy, Yunus Musah is left off simply for lack of that killer instinct.

Sadly, I guess I have to agree. He's a wonderful talent, but he doesn't push the envelope and make those daring moves I think he's capable of. Like, it'll flash here and there, but then he retreats into the game again.

Too defensive of a mindset.
I remember when Ponch first came in,

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1977?

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Are you referring to Chips, the Mexican jacket, or big bellies?

Mauricio Pochettino

I guess the N comes later

concordtom said:

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Mauricio Pochettino

I guess the N comes later

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That is Poch. I was curious what 1977 referred to for Ponch.

Pulling for Ireland and Italy to get through their playoff, would be great to have their fans this summer.

A huge day ahead 🤩#WCQ pic.twitter.com/kxODAjwBXa

— UEFA EURO (@UEFAEURO) March 26, 2026

Wales-Bosnia and Ukraine-Sweden are the hidden bottom two matches on that graphic.

Turkey-Romania is a very old European regional rivalry.

Hope Ukraine makes it too, so that the players don't get forcibly drafted (not entirely joking here).

Most likely UEFA opponent in USMNT group looks like Turkey (should be favored in playoff vs Kosovo).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)#Path_A

Ireland-Czechia in OT, 10min left could go to PKs

Thx for keeping me updated.
Here's a website with it (scores, etc) all spelled out.
Didn't exactly go as planned, did it?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/soccer/worldcup/2026/03/26/world-cup-2026-qualifying-live-scores-playoff-brackets/89323909007/

Canada group is going to get Italy. Dumb luck.

Italy is in a bit of a slump right now.

US playing today at 1230 Pacific. Today's team should be the starting team if the world cup was today minus injuries.

USA is getting hammered today.