The ECONOMY Part Deux

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Aunburdened
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12:04p, 7/18/26
The next time somebody posts an article from Politico, please understand what they are all about

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ProBonoBear415
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12:23p, 7/18/26
Consumer spending in the US is now more heavily concentrated among the wealthiest households than at any point in decades.

According to Bank of America, the top 10% of earners spend as much on discretionary items as the bottom 70% combineda sign of how the so-called K-shaped recovery has intensified since the pandemic. Moody's Analytics, analyzing Federal Reserve data, found these high-income households, earning $250,000 or more, drove 49.7% of all consumer spending, up from 36% thirty years ago.

Affluent Shoppers Drive Nearly Half Of US Retail Spending
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ProBonoBear415
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3:48p, 7/22/26
The U.S. Treasury has been borrowing $155 BILLION EVERY MONTH OF THIS FISCAL YEAR.

That's $39 BILLION PER WEEK.

That's roughly $100 Billion more than the same period in 2025.

No wonder why rates are EXPLODING HIGHER!

2 year yield: 4.30%

10 year yield: 4.65%

30 year yield: 5.15%


U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal yearand is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
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Cal88
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In reply to ProBonoBear415 • 8:58a, 7/23/26
Debt should hit $40T by September, that is one hell of a milestone.
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concordtom
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:18a, 7/23/26
It means nothing to many if it hits $50T, certainly not Trump.

Who wants to bet on when that happens?

Who wants to be on what the 30 yr yield will be at when it does?
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Cal88
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In reply to concordtom • 11:12a, 7/23/26
IIRC 42% of income tax is allocated to debt servicing.

We should hit $50T in about 4 years.
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concordtom
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:40a, 7/23/26
Approximate dates when U.S. federal gross debt crossed each milestone:

Debt level Date crossed President at the time
$1 trillion October 22, 1981 Ronald Reagan
$3 trillion October 25, 1990 George H. W. Bush
$5 trillion November 23, 1995 Bill Clinton
$10 trillion September 30, 2008 George W. Bush
$15 trillion November 15, 2011 Barack Obama
$20 trillion September 8, 2017 Donald Trump
$25 trillion May 4, 2020 Donald Trump
$30 trillion January 31, 2022 Joe Biden
$35 trillion July 2024 (around July 26) Joe Biden
$40 trillion Projected/approaching in 2025-2026 Donald Trump (second term)

A few interesting observations:

* It took the U.S. about 205 years (from the Revolutionary War era to 1981) to reach the first $1 trillion.
* The next $9 trillion took about 27 years (19812008).
* Going from $10T to $20T took only about 9 years.
* Going from $20T to $30T took about 4 years and 5 months.
* Going from $30T to $40T is occurring in roughly 3-4 years if the current pace continues.

The acceleration is largely due to a combination of:

* entitlement spending growth (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid),
* defense spending,
* tax policy changes,
* recessions and stimulus programs (especially 2008 and COVID-19),
* and rising interest costs on the debt itself.

The interest expense is now one of the largest federal spending categories, competing with major programs like defense and Medicare.
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concordtom
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12:05p, 7/23/26
This is concerning to me because neither party has been able to accomplish anything in debt constraint since Clinton back in the 1900's.

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Cal88
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12:21p, 7/23/26
Defense budget blowing up to $1.5T+ (they don't usually include all the vet benefits, intel and nuclear programs), so more money for guns, less for butter.


Translated from Spanish
"This is what school food is like in US schools under the National School Lunch ProgramAmerican parents pay to feed their kids this garbage, based on their income.

While they spend 37 billion on bombing Iran, their kids eat grilled plastic."

School meals in Japan, France:



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BearlySane88
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In reply to Cal88 • 12:32p, 7/23/26
The best country to look at for this is actually Japan.

Edited: Ah sorry missed the middle video of Japan.
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dajo9
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In reply to concordtom • 12:34p, 7/23/26
concordtom said:
This is concerning to me because neither party has been able to accomplish anything in debt constraint since Clinton back in the 1900's.



That's false. Obama's ACA was the most effective cost reduction bill ever passed. He also raised taxes on the wealthy.
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BearNIt
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2:20p, 7/23/26
New tariffs now? What must he be thinking to raise cost on the American consumer with the spike in oil prices, increases in grocery prices, and rising inflation? The Fed has to at least consider a rate increase based on stubborn inflation.Talk about tone deaf. The courts did him a favor when they disallowed some of the tariffs but, he has jumped back into the fire. The effect on inflation should further disadvantage Republicans running for office who are already worried about the upcoming elections. There will surely be legal challenges to his tariffs.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to BearNIt • 2:40p, 7/23/26
Don't worry. President Trump has assured us that all tariffs will be paid by the importers and that the American people won't see any price increases.

He also says he can get us a cheap deal on the Brooklyn Bridge too.
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concordtom
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In reply to dajo9 • 10:11p, 7/23/26
dajo9 said:
concordtom said:
This is concerning to me because neither party has been able to accomplish anything in debt constraint since Clinton back in the 1900's.



That's false. Obama's ACA was the most effective cost reduction bill ever passed. He also raised taxes on the wealthy.


It's true that Clinton was the last president to have a budget surplus, and that's what I was referring to. Not sure why that wasn't understood. It's pretty well documented everywhere.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 10:31p, 7/23/26
dajo9 said:
concordtom said:
This is concerning to me because neither party has been able to accomplish anything in debt constraint since Clinton back in the 1900's.



Obama's ACA was the most effective cost reduction bill ever passed.


This is an opinion, not fact.

U.S. health care expenditures have risen every year since the ACA was enacted. Many people who purchased insurance without employer coverage or substantial subsidies saw large premium increases, especially between 2014 and 2018. Deductibles and out-of-pocket costs increased. It did not significantly lower prescription drug prices. Employer-sponsored insurance costs continued rising. Much of the slowdown in spending occurred before full implementation, the recession was as much a reason as the ACA. Coverage expansion isn't the same as cost reduction.

Overall health care spending, insurance premiums, deductibles, and drug costs continued to rise. There is little basis for calling it unequivocally "the most effective cost reduction bill ever passed."
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Cal88
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1:18p, 7/24/26
New UC Regent sees sharp decline in the market as 40% of the S&P500 is invested in AI, whose revenue model is threatened by Chinese competition.

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chazzed
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8:51a, 7/29/26
Big news, everybody. Bessent thinks that we soon won't need to worry about saving for retirement.

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oski003
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In reply to chazzed • 9:20a, 7/29/26
chazzed said:
Big news, everybody. Bessent thinks that we soon won't need to worry about saving for retirement.



We only have three years left until 2029. Retirement accounts definitely won't matter.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUpcx1iD3h6/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
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Aunburdened
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In reply to chazzed • 3:20p, 7/29/26
chazzed said:
Big news, everybody. Bessent thinks that we soon won't need to worry about saving for retirement.


In 5-6 years, people won't need to worry about saving for retirement because the robots will have killed us all
Free Wags.
Also Free Dwight Way and ProBonoBear415.
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SBGold
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In reply to Aunburdened • 9:54a, 7/30/26
Aunburdened said:
chazzed said:
Big news, everybody. Bessent thinks that we soon won't need to worry about saving for retirement.


In 5-6 years, people won't need to worry about saving for retirement because the robots will have killed us all

This is more likely. They might as well start now and thin the herd.
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dajo9
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5:14p, 7/30/26
"Fox Business: "Second quarter GDP came in at 1.5%. The estimate was a gain of 2.1%, so we're coming in a little bit light.""

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mrulsujj2g2x
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cal83dls79
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In reply to dajo9 • 5:23p, 7/30/26
dajo9 said:
"Fox Business: "Second quarter GDP came in at 1.5%. The estimate was a gain of 2.1%, so we're coming in a little bit light.""

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mrulsujj2g2x
"a little light" , If that doesn't scream "Golden Age" I don't know what does!
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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Cal88
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7:02a, 8/4/26
Pricetags point to a 28% annualized increase in the price of NY strip at Costco


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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:31a, 8/4/26
Cal88 said:
Pricetags point to a 28% annualized increase in the price of NY strip at Costco

Ummm… If the price has gone up from $10.99 to $15.99 in 16 months, it seems like it would be more than a 28% increase but I'm too lazy to do the math. Who knows how much higher it's gotten in the year since then?

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think 28% is probably right.
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LudwigsFountain
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 10:29a, 8/4/26
Wow, I remembered the math

15.99/10.99 = e^4/3r

ln(15.99/10.99) = 4/3r

couple of calculations later, r = .281

Now, if I could only remember why I went upstairs
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Cal88
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In reply to LudwigsFountain • 11:17a, 8/4/26
GJ!
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Cal88
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5:45a, 8/5/26
Another sign of K-shaped economy:

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Cal88
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6:46a, 8/6/26
Price of ground beef charted across the last 3 administrations.

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cal83dls79
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In reply to Cal88 • 6:54a, 8/6/26
Heard count at low point and shrinking…so no end in sight.

Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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cal83dls79
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In reply to cal83dls79 • 7:05a, 8/6/26
I guess the argument is that Big Beef is holding
back supply in order to actually make money raising
cows if left unsubsidized? Or are they making super-profits la the oil companies? I let the beef industry experts chime in.
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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dajo9
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In reply to cal83dls79 • 8:02a, 8/6/26
cal83dls79 said:
I guess the argument is that Big Beef is holding
back supply in order to actually make money raising
cows if left unsubsidized? Or are they making super-profits la the oil companies? I let the beef industry experts chime in.

Haven't researched the specifics but cattle inventories could be down because they are underpaid by the meatpacking conglomerates that are likely gouging the consumers and the suppliers with their market power.
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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dajo9
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6:48a, 8/7/26
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July and previous months were revised downward making the 12 month average 34,000 for job growth. Government job losses were primarily local education jobs. Is that DOGE? Because we need more teachers not fewer teachers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% amid a decreasing participation rate led by Baby Boomer retirements.

Trump continues to track towards being the worst jobs president since Herbert Hoover - even if you remove the jobs lost during covid.

Year-over-year average earnings also dropped to the lowest level since May 2021. Good job, MAGA.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html
Censorship has always been a tool of the fascist
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chazzed
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:26a, 8/7/26
dajo9 said:
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July and previous months were revised downward making the 12 month average 34,000 for job growth. Government job losses were primarily local education jobs. Is that DOGE? Because we need more teachers not fewer teachers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% amid a decreasing participation rate led by Baby Boomer retirements.

Trump continues to track towards being the worst jobs president since Herbert Hoover - even if you remove the jobs lost during covid.

Year-over-year average earnings also dropped to the lowest level since May 2021. Good job, MAGA.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html

Imagine having to pretend that he is doing a good job on the economy. Welcome to the world of a MAGA.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to chazzed • 5:48p, 8/7/26
chazzed said:
dajo9 said:
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July and previous months were revised downward making the 12 month average 34,000 for job growth. Government job losses were primarily local education jobs. Is that DOGE? Because we need more teachers not fewer teachers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% amid a decreasing participation rate led by Baby Boomer retirements.

Trump continues to track towards being the worst jobs president since Herbert Hoover - even if you remove the jobs lost during covid.

Year-over-year average earnings also dropped to the lowest level since May 2021. Good job, MAGA.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html

Imagine having to pretend that he is doing a good job on the economy. Welcome to the world of a MAGA.


Imagine a President telling everyone and anyone that we are the "hottest country in the world" right now and people actually believing him.

Delusional.

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SBGold
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In reply to DiabloWags • 5:55p, 8/7/26
DiabloWags said:
chazzed said:
dajo9 said:
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July and previous months were revised downward making the 12 month average 34,000 for job growth. Government job losses were primarily local education jobs. Is that DOGE? Because we need more teachers not fewer teachers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% amid a decreasing participation rate led by Baby Boomer retirements.

Trump continues to track towards being the worst jobs president since Herbert Hoover - even if you remove the jobs lost during covid.

Year-over-year average earnings also dropped to the lowest level since May 2021. Good job, MAGA.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html

Imagine having to pretend that he is doing a good job on the economy. Welcome to the world of a MAGA.


Imagine a President telling everyone and anyone that we are the "hottest country in the world" right now and people actually believing him.

Delusional.


Back and ready for it all, welcome Wags
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