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sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

DiabloWags said:

FROM NATE SILVER:



Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin

Rule of thumb: if the poll is from Rasmussen or Trafalgar, chances are it's the lone outlier with sunnier results for Trump.


Then the same can be said for every left leaning poll lol. What's your point?

What about cnn and pew which showed polling for Biden at dismal numbers? Should we discredit those too?

No, I think Biden legitimately had poor approval at the end of his term.

Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.
BearlySane88
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sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

DiabloWags said:

FROM NATE SILVER:



Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin

Rule of thumb: if the poll is from Rasmussen or Trafalgar, chances are it's the lone outlier with sunnier results for Trump.


Then the same can be said for every left leaning poll lol. What's your point?

What about cnn and pew which showed polling for Biden at dismal numbers? Should we discredit those too?

No, I think Biden legitimately had poor approval at the end of his term.

Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.


Biden had poor approval almost his entire presidency. After Afghanistan, it was all bad.

The snapshot is good in theory if you have the same number of left leaning and right leaning polls represented
sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

DiabloWags said:

FROM NATE SILVER:



Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin

Rule of thumb: if the poll is from Rasmussen or Trafalgar, chances are it's the lone outlier with sunnier results for Trump.


Then the same can be said for every left leaning poll lol. What's your point?

What about cnn and pew which showed polling for Biden at dismal numbers? Should we discredit those too?

No, I think Biden legitimately had poor approval at the end of his term.

Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.


Biden had poor approval almost his entire presidency. After Afghanistan, it was all bad.

The snapshot is good in theory if you have the same number of left leaning and right leaning polls represented

Yeah, that's the point of creating an average of all the polls.
BearlySane88
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sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

DiabloWags said:

FROM NATE SILVER:



Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin

Rule of thumb: if the poll is from Rasmussen or Trafalgar, chances are it's the lone outlier with sunnier results for Trump.


Then the same can be said for every left leaning poll lol. What's your point?

What about cnn and pew which showed polling for Biden at dismal numbers? Should we discredit those too?

No, I think Biden legitimately had poor approval at the end of his term.

Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.


Biden had poor approval almost his entire presidency. After Afghanistan, it was all bad.

The snapshot is good in theory if you have the same number of left leaning and right leaning polls represented

Yeah, that's the point of creating an average of all the polls.


Yes, I understand that. My critic is that if you average 10 left leaning polls and 5 right leaning polls, the end result is skewed left. I don't know the answer, is it an even split left/right in his average?

To be fair, I put little weight in polls either way. They are a barometer but they certainly never tell the whole story. Data analysis is as flawed as it is beautiful
PAC-10-BEAR
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Happy Christopher Columbus Day, fellow Bearinisders.

Christopher Columbus might be the only immigrant the libs hate?

I love pizza!
movielover
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No bueno.

sycasey
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BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

BearlySane88 said:

sycasey said:

DiabloWags said:

FROM NATE SILVER:



Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin

Rule of thumb: if the poll is from Rasmussen or Trafalgar, chances are it's the lone outlier with sunnier results for Trump.


Then the same can be said for every left leaning poll lol. What's your point?

What about cnn and pew which showed polling for Biden at dismal numbers? Should we discredit those too?

No, I think Biden legitimately had poor approval at the end of his term.

Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.


Biden had poor approval almost his entire presidency. After Afghanistan, it was all bad.

The snapshot is good in theory if you have the same number of left leaning and right leaning polls represented

Yeah, that's the point of creating an average of all the polls.


Yes, I understand that. My critic is that if you average 10 left leaning polls and 5 right leaning polls, the end result is skewed left. I don't know the answer, is it an even split left/right in his average?

To be fair, I put little weight in polls either way. They are a barometer but they certainly never tell the whole story. Data analysis is as flawed as it is beautiful

Models like Nate Silver's tend to weight polls depending on past performance. So if a poll tends to overvalue Republicans then he will weight that accordingly. No model will be perfect but he makes a good faith effort IMO and is usually very close.
PAC-10-BEAR
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Is this the same Nate Silver that had Kamala Harris winning the general election at +1.0% margin?
PAC-10-BEAR
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sycasey said:


Take an average of all the polls, as Nate Silver does. That's the best snapshot.

Except when most polls skew left, and therefore, incorrect.
DiabloWags
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In wet, rainy conditions the much maligned JAKE MOODY kicks the game winner on the road to put the Chicago BEARS back on top with their 3rd straight win

FG's of 48, 47, 41, and 38.

Bears 25
Commanders 24



sycasey
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

Is this the same Nate Silver that had Kamala Harris winning the general election at +1.0% margin?

Yes, his model had it as a very close election and it was. Getting the result within 2 or 3% is a pretty good prediction.

He also wrote an editorial that his "gut" said Trump would win, but also that the election was ultimately a tossup.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html
Big C
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

Happy Christopher Columbus Day, fellow Bearinisders.

Christopher Columbus might be the only immigrant the libs hate?

I love pizza!

Let's start the celebration off with a hypocritical Land Acknowledgement!
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