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movielover
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We imported deflation. U.S. consumer prices in 2019 showed that prices of imported goods actually declined despite Trumps increased China and EU tariffs. A 2024 report from CPA takes a look at the impact to Chinese exports to the U.S.

https://prosperousamerica.org/section-301-tariffs-reduced-u-s-dependence-on-china-decoupling-has-begun/

President Trump said China was a threat, and his tariffs changed the landscape.

"Since the Section 301 tariffs were imposed, the share of imports from China has steadily declined from 21.6% in 2017 the year prior to the tariffs to 16.5%, a decline of 5.1%. No other country has lost as much share of total U.S. import penetration over the past five years."

Inflation by Administration
Item .................. Trump.......Biden


Energy ...................-0.7%..........34.3%
Gas.........................-6.8%..........38.2%
Electricity................4.5%..........31.3%
Transportation......2.1%...........31.1%
Hotels...................-15.1%..........42.4%
Groceries.................5.9%..........22.1%
Food at K-12 ..........-9.3%..........69.7%
Apparel...................-7.0%..........15.1%
Nonpresc drugs.....-0.8%..........16.6%


Another success for President Trump: food prices had very low year-over-year inflation 0.5 percent. Thanks to low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag's hold on the farm production and the export.

Gary Cohn crickets.
DiabloWags
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The combined U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased to $679 billion in 2020, compared to $481 billion in 2016, the year before Trump took office.

The trade deficit in goods alone hit $916 billion, a record high and an increase of about 21 percent from 2016.

The tariffs on China reduced imports from China, but these were mostly replaced with imports from OTHER countries.
Duh.

TRUMP FAILED TO REDUCE THE TRADE DEFICIT.

America's trade gap soared under Trump, final figures show - POLITICO

DiabloWags
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movielover said:




Another success for President Trump: food prices had very low year-over-year inflation 0.5 percent. Thanks to low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag's hold on the farm production and the export.



The low retail food prices of 2016 and 2017 were the result of the massive increase in U.S. production of Ag commodities across the board in 2015.

Bumper crops along with lower oil prices in 2015 (as low as $33 for WTI) and a strong USD since 2014 that made imported foods less expensive were the drivers of lower retail food prices.

Trump wasn't even in office in 2015.
Duh.

Your constant SPIN is absurd.

bearister
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Data: The Conference Board. (2025 respondents picked their top risk in two categories economic and conflict. 2024 respondents picked their top three overall.) Chart: Axios Visuals
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
philly1121
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.
Cal88
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philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
DiabloWags
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philly1121 said:




You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.

Dont forget that inflation is currently running at 9.5% in Russia and a noted Swedish economist Anders Aslund says that they may run out of liquidity at their National Wealth Fund to pay for their war effort.

The fund has declined from $117 Billion in 2021 to just $31 Billion.

Yup, Russia really is in the "sweet" spot!

Russia Running Out of Money, Could Lose Ability to Fund War: Top Economist | IBTimes
philly1121
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Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
Ladas are not allowed in the US so its really a moot point.

As for the percent GDP, this one is a curious figure. No one knows for sure how much Russia is spending on defense and security. They do have a defense budget but the expenditures are far greater. Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley bank exec has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making the war effort in Ukraine possible. Kennedy calls this an "off budget" scheme, whereby a law enacted in February 2022 forces Russian banks to give preferential loans to military businesses. Kennedy further describes that from February 2022, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDPhigher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures,

This means that Russia's military expenditures far exceed what official budget expenditures are listing.

Kennedy's estimates from his Navigating Russia newsletter, puts defense expenditures at around 9% of Russian GDP. CIA estimates put it as high as 12-14%. Russia's official budget puts it at 5.86%. Kennedy's number seemed reasonable. In fact, its probably higher.

Kennedy's forecast, of which many economists agree, is that the off budget scheme is masking the real costs of the war in Ukraine and if interests rates climb (they will) and inflation goes higher (it might) then a serious credit crisis will result.
bear2034
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Michelle Obama didn't appear at Jimmy Carter's funeral and will not be present at Donald Trump's inauguration.
MinotStateBeav
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Welp, we survived it. We got the full impact lol.

Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/



It's one thing to ask $288,000 for an old car. It's a much more difficult thing to find a chump willing to pay that much for it.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/



It's one thing to ask $288,000 for an old car. It's a much more difficult thing to find a chump willing to pay that much for it.

The equivalent product here would be a vintage Ford Bronco, same square lines and streamlined design values. A 1970s Bronco in mint condition can easily fetch six figures:


^asking $199,000
https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/listing/1975-ford-bronco-carrollton-tx-2844810

The market for those trucks is a very rich boomer or older Xer with a case of nostalgia and emotional attachment for cars from his youth as well as an appreciation for simpler designs. Russia has around 400,000 millionaires. This being said, the mileage on that Lada does not justify the asking price of $288k, but I can see it easily going for low 6 figures. Keep in mind that with the winter conditions there, vehicles will start rusting in 5 to 10 years, so a vintage mint car is at a higher premium compared to markets like California with dry temperate weather.
Cal88
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philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
Ladas are not allowed in the US so its really a moot point.

As for the percent GDP, this one is a curious figure. No one knows for sure how much Russia is spending on defense and security. They do have a defense budget but the expenditures are far greater. Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley bank exec has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making the war effort in Ukraine possible. Kennedy calls this an "off budget" scheme, whereby a law enacted in February 2022 forces Russian banks to give preferential loans to military businesses. Kennedy further describes that from February 2022, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDPhigher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures,

This means that Russia's military expenditures far exceed what official budget expenditures are listing.

Kennedy's estimates from his Navigating Russia newsletter, puts defense expenditures at around 9% of Russian GDP. CIA estimates put it as high as 12-14%. Russia's official budget puts it at 5.86%. Kennedy's number seemed reasonable. In fact, its probably higher.

Kennedy's forecast, of which many economists agree, is that the off budget scheme is masking the real costs of the war in Ukraine and if interests rates climb (they will) and inflation goes higher (it might) then a serious credit crisis will result.

The accounts of the main weapons manufacturers are known, and not likely to feature "off-budget" or shadow accounts. A plant that makes 40 tanks per month has to have all its price inputs and procurement, production costs clearly outlined and tracked, down to the last bolt, in order to operate.

Most of that surge in corporate loans comes from the fact that Russian industry has been making huge investments since the beginning of the war sanctions into production facilities to replace imported products like consumer goods, processed food, agricultural equipment, chips, ball bearings, packaging etc. Russia imported a lot of machine tools equipment from China and also Europe through third parties in countries like Turkey or Kazakhstan.

According to French economist Jacques Sapir, the Russian manufacturing capacity usage is near 90%, which is very high (France is at 60% in comparison), meaning that they need to invest in increasing their capacity. He believes a lot of the inflation there is due to this, fewer goods available in the marketplace due to capacity constraints, and that the Russian central bank's response of higher interest rate is the wrong prescription for them.
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

philly1121 said:




You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.

Dont forget that inflation is currently running at 9.5% in Russia and a noted Swedish economist Anders Aslund says that they may run out of liquidity at their National Wealth Fund to pay for their war effort.

The fund has declined from $117 Billion in 2021 to just $31 Billion.

Yup, Russia really is in the "sweet" spot!

Russia Running Out of Money, Could Lose Ability to Fund War: Top Economist | IBTimes

Aslund works for the Atlantic Council and is based in DC, his analyses are highly politicized, kind of similar to the team of economists from Yale who predicted back in 2022 a quick collapse of the Russian economy.

Also, while the Russian national fund has declined, their central bank has been accumulating gold reserves. Furthermore, Russia has the lowest debt to GDP ratio among industrialized nations at around 16% IIRC. In comparison Japan is at 260%, the US at 130% and most of western Europe in the low 3 figures.
philly1121
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Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
Ladas are not allowed in the US so its really a moot point.

As for the percent GDP, this one is a curious figure. No one knows for sure how much Russia is spending on defense and security. They do have a defense budget but the expenditures are far greater. Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley bank exec has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making the war effort in Ukraine possible. Kennedy calls this an "off budget" scheme, whereby a law enacted in February 2022 forces Russian banks to give preferential loans to military businesses. Kennedy further describes that from February 2022, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDPhigher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures,

This means that Russia's military expenditures far exceed what official budget expenditures are listing.

Kennedy's estimates from his Navigating Russia newsletter, puts defense expenditures at around 9% of Russian GDP. CIA estimates put it as high as 12-14%. Russia's official budget puts it at 5.86%. Kennedy's number seemed reasonable. In fact, its probably higher.

Kennedy's forecast, of which many economists agree, is that the off budget scheme is masking the real costs of the war in Ukraine and if interests rates climb (they will) and inflation goes higher (it might) then a serious credit crisis will result.

The accounts of the main weapons manufacturers are known, and not likely to feature "off-budget" or shadow accounts. A plant that makes 40 tanks per month has to have all its price inputs and procurement, production costs clearly outlined and tracked, down to the last bolt, in order to operate.

Most of that surge in corporate loans comes from the fact that Russian industry has been making huge investments since the beginning of the war sanctions into production facilities to replace imported products like consumer goods, processed food, agricultural equipment, chips, ball bearings, packaging etc. Russia imported a lot of machine tools equipment from China and also Europe through third parties in countries like Turkey or Kazakhstan.

According to French economist Jacques Sapir, the Russian manufacturing capacity usage is near 90%, which is very high (France is at 60% in comparison), meaning that they need to invest in increasing their capacity. He believes a lot of the inflation there is due to this, fewer goods available in the marketplace due to capacity constraints, and that the Russian central bank's response of higher interest rate is the wrong prescription for them.
You're not understanding comrade. The off budget scheme is forcing banks to loan money to these military arms manufacturers to purchase materials for production that they would not have otherwise been able to afford. They are not offering any interest rates other than 21% to civil society industries. So if you're thinking that the 6% of GDP spent on the military economy is accurate, that's simply not true. And it will result in a credit crisis since offering rates to select industries in a non civilian sector of the economy cannot last.
Cal88
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I have only heard the first few minutes, apparently this is the mother of Cal CS grad Suchir Balaji, who was involved in ChatGPT and a whistleblower on its use. He died a few weeks ago, alleged suicide, but his mother claims he was offed.

movielover
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I listened to the whole thing. Terrific young man. Sounds like murder, just like the two Boeing Whistleblowers.

This AI is another planet. There is an argument that assembling the database of information is a key to success.
Cal88
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philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
Ladas are not allowed in the US so its really a moot point.

As for the percent GDP, this one is a curious figure. No one knows for sure how much Russia is spending on defense and security. They do have a defense budget but the expenditures are far greater. Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley bank exec has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making the war effort in Ukraine possible. Kennedy calls this an "off budget" scheme, whereby a law enacted in February 2022 forces Russian banks to give preferential loans to military businesses. Kennedy further describes that from February 2022, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDPhigher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures,

This means that Russia's military expenditures far exceed what official budget expenditures are listing.

Kennedy's estimates from his Navigating Russia newsletter, puts defense expenditures at around 9% of Russian GDP. CIA estimates put it as high as 12-14%. Russia's official budget puts it at 5.86%. Kennedy's number seemed reasonable. In fact, its probably higher.

Kennedy's forecast, of which many economists agree, is that the off budget scheme is masking the real costs of the war in Ukraine and if interests rates climb (they will) and inflation goes higher (it might) then a serious credit crisis will result.

The accounts of the main weapons manufacturers are known, and not likely to feature "off-budget" or shadow accounts. A plant that makes 40 tanks per month has to have all its price inputs and procurement, production costs clearly outlined and tracked, down to the last bolt, in order to operate.

Most of that surge in corporate loans comes from the fact that Russian industry has been making huge investments since the beginning of the war sanctions into production facilities to replace imported products like consumer goods, processed food, agricultural equipment, chips, ball bearings, packaging etc. Russia imported a lot of machine tools equipment from China and also Europe through third parties in countries like Turkey or Kazakhstan.

According to French economist Jacques Sapir, the Russian manufacturing capacity usage is near 90%, which is very high (France is at 60% in comparison), meaning that they need to invest in increasing their capacity. He believes a lot of the inflation there is due to this, fewer goods available in the marketplace due to capacity constraints, and that the Russian central bank's response of higher interest rate is the wrong prescription for them.
You're not understanding comrade. The off budget scheme is forcing banks to loan money to these military arms manufacturers to purchase materials for production that they would not have otherwise been able to afford. They are not offering any interest rates other than 21% to civil society industries. So if you're thinking that the 6% of GDP spent on the military economy is accurate, that's simply not true. And it will result in a credit crisis since offering rates to select industries in a non civilian sector of the economy cannot last.

It sounds like a pretty weird explanation, because arms manufacturers in Russia are paid by the state, who is supposed to cover all their costs. Why would companies have to resort to taking bank loans to operate and produce. As well, historically speaking, Russians have gotten a lot of bang for their military buck, due to lower input costs (materials, energy, labor, facilities already set up).
movielover
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Mary McCord, Lawfare guru.




movielover
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AP: Some immigrants are already leaving the US in 'self-deportations' as Trump's threats loom
bearister
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How many are carpenters and other tradesmen in the greater Los Angeles area?
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
bear2034
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movielover said:

Mary McCord, Lawfare guru.

Mary McCord, Deep State

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/120106/replies
bear2034
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BREAKING: FBI closed its Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the end of December 2024 per Fox News.
bear2034
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Daniel Penny. He's back.
tequila4kapp
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bearister said:

How many are carpenters and other tradesmen in the greater Los Angeles area?
Who cares? There's an insidious element of racism in this. Let's sneak in as many brown people as possible to do the work that's beneath white people. We are creating a caste system and it's disgusting..

Further, the proper phrase we're looking for in the post preceding yours is "illegal immigrants." If they entered the country legally and avoid committing crimes while here they wouldn't have to worry about being deported.
philly1121
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Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Must be why GAZPROM is doing so well.
40% of workforce is hetting laid off.

Because the ruble and Russian economy is so STRONG.

Lmfao!

https://fortune.com/europe/2025/01/14/gazprom-russia-cutting-hundreds-jobs/


Gazprom is laying off 1,600 office jobs in St. Petersburg, not "40% of its workforce". That is such a ridiculous statement.

Because Gazprom's total workforce is nearly half a million people.

Gazprom added nearly 100,000 employees to its payroll in the last decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/350709/employee-numbers-at-gazprom-worldwide

You should cancel your WSJ subscription, it's not helping you here.

Glad I could help you here again.
I say go big on Gazprom shares 88. Share price is 133 rubles. Or....drum roll....$1.29 USD. Gazprom is laying off 40% of its staff at its headquarters. That's 1600 people. $7 billion loss in 2023.

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin, and military spending is set to jump by almost 30 percent again in 2025. As I've said before, inflation has also been driven higher by unprecedented labor shortages across civilian industries. <<The real economy. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have joined the army, been recruited by booming arms manufacturers (largely because of higher pay and bonuses) or fled the country since Moscow launched its military offensive in February 2022.

You don't need the Journal to understand what's coming for Russia. Putin steering a 1980 Russian Lada towards a cliff.


Vlad should seriously think of reconsidering, as a 1980 Lada Niva in good condition can fetch over a quarter million United States Dollars on the Russian market, there are a lot of afficionados there with deep pockets:

"A 1980 Lada Niva With 137 Miles In Original Wraps Listed For An Absurd $288,000"
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/05/1980-lada-niva-with-137-miles-and-original-wrapping-listed-for-an-absurd-288k/




Also Philly, I've noticed that you have had a tendency to take some liberties with your narratives and make up some numbers as you go. Do you have a source for your statement above:

Quote:

Russia is spending almost nine percent of its GDP on defence and security, according to Putin

Russia's current defense spending (for 2024) was just under 5%, set to rise to 6.2% next year. Your fudge factor there is nearly 100%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/24/russia-to-boost-military-spending-to-40-of-state-budget-in-2025-bloomberg-a86450

The Moscow Times btw is an anti-Putin outlet, published out of Holland.
Ladas are not allowed in the US so its really a moot point.

As for the percent GDP, this one is a curious figure. No one knows for sure how much Russia is spending on defense and security. They do have a defense budget but the expenditures are far greater. Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley bank exec has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making the war effort in Ukraine possible. Kennedy calls this an "off budget" scheme, whereby a law enacted in February 2022 forces Russian banks to give preferential loans to military businesses. Kennedy further describes that from February 2022, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDPhigher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures,

This means that Russia's military expenditures far exceed what official budget expenditures are listing.

Kennedy's estimates from his Navigating Russia newsletter, puts defense expenditures at around 9% of Russian GDP. CIA estimates put it as high as 12-14%. Russia's official budget puts it at 5.86%. Kennedy's number seemed reasonable. In fact, its probably higher.

Kennedy's forecast, of which many economists agree, is that the off budget scheme is masking the real costs of the war in Ukraine and if interests rates climb (they will) and inflation goes higher (it might) then a serious credit crisis will result.

The accounts of the main weapons manufacturers are known, and not likely to feature "off-budget" or shadow accounts. A plant that makes 40 tanks per month has to have all its price inputs and procurement, production costs clearly outlined and tracked, down to the last bolt, in order to operate.

Most of that surge in corporate loans comes from the fact that Russian industry has been making huge investments since the beginning of the war sanctions into production facilities to replace imported products like consumer goods, processed food, agricultural equipment, chips, ball bearings, packaging etc. Russia imported a lot of machine tools equipment from China and also Europe through third parties in countries like Turkey or Kazakhstan.

According to French economist Jacques Sapir, the Russian manufacturing capacity usage is near 90%, which is very high (France is at 60% in comparison), meaning that they need to invest in increasing their capacity. He believes a lot of the inflation there is due to this, fewer goods available in the marketplace due to capacity constraints, and that the Russian central bank's response of higher interest rate is the wrong prescription for them.
You're not understanding comrade. The off budget scheme is forcing banks to loan money to these military arms manufacturers to purchase materials for production that they would not have otherwise been able to afford. They are not offering any interest rates other than 21% to civil society industries. So if you're thinking that the 6% of GDP spent on the military economy is accurate, that's simply not true. And it will result in a credit crisis since offering rates to select industries in a non civilian sector of the economy cannot last.

It sounds like a pretty weird explanation, because arms manufacturers in Russia are paid by the state, who is supposed to cover all their costs. Why would companies have to resort to taking bank loans to operate and produce. As well, historically speaking, Russians have gotten a lot of bang for their military buck, due to lower input costs (materials, energy, labor, facilities already set up).
They are conglomerates. All under Rostec, they are separate entities such as United Shipbuilding - that's one of the biggest ones. Since their primary business was exports, with sanctions they had to shift much of their business to domestic business. Since Russia can use the federal or state budget allocation to fund these businesses, to keep up, these companies need more money for purchase of parts, machining, etc. And alot of these loans are going to suppliers that are not very credit worthy. So, it is unlikely that these loans with better rates are even going to be paid back. And there you have the credit crisis, which, the more I read, the more I see that this is the real threat to the Russian economy. But its driving inflation upwards as well.
bearister
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tequila4kapp said:

bearister said:

How many are carpenters and other tradesmen in the greater Los Angeles area?
Who cares? There's an insidious element of racism in this. Let's sneak in as many brown people as possible to do the work that's beneath white people. We are creating a caste system and it's disgusting..

Further, the proper phrase we're looking for in the post preceding yours is "illegal immigrants." If they entered the country legally, and avoid committing crimes while here they wouldn't have to worry about being deported.


Nice try on the race card. Everyone knows young White guys are too f@ucking lazy to put in a hard days work….its not beneath them. They would rather listen to Joe Rogan, hear how screwed they are, talk about what victims they are, and have a good cry.

My plumber has a big business and would love his son to take over but the son is TOO F@UCKING LAZY. My plumber's assistant is Latino. Get your racism b@ullsh@it outa here.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
movielover
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Many Caucasians and African Americans have been driven out of the state or trades bc of low ball offers, inconsistent work, job instability, and cheap customers.

If an illegal immigrant will work for $15 - $25 an hour, he drives out the family man. The GC might charge his hourly fee at $60 or $100, but the worker gets the lowball offer and the GC makes out. If the worker gets hurt, the GC drops him off at the ER. The work is sometimes good, or sometimes shoddy.
philly1121
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movielover said:

Many Caucasians and African Americans have been driven out of the state or trades bc of low ball offers, inconsistent work, job instability, and cheap customers.

If an illegal immigrant will work for $15 - $25 an hour, he drives out the family man. The GC might charge his hourly fee at $60 or $100, but the worker gets the lowball offer and the GC makes out. If the worker gets hurt, the GC drops him off at the ER. The work is sometimes good, or sometimes shoddy.
The family man? So the guy with a green card or the undoc doesn't have a family? Wow, thats pretty nativist.

No white "family man" is going to put up drywall or do roofing in 100 degree weather. Nor are they going to pick oranges in Exeter or Porterville. Or pick strawberrys in Salinas.

The closer we get to 1/20, the more the true colors are showing. The veil will eventually come fully off. Movielover is showing the way.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

AP: Some immigrants are already leaving the US in 'self-deportations' as Trump's threats loom


Are you going to be picking strawberries or lettuce?
tequila4kapp
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philly1121 said:

No white "family man" is going to put up drywall or do roofing in 100 degree weather. Nor are they going to pick oranges in Exeter or Porterville.
The hell they won't. I have done drywall and other construction jobs. I have working class friends that did/do all those jobs. My dad was a union construction worker for 25 years. When he ran crews his workers were under educated working class people.

Working class Americans stopped doing those jobs when employers could pick up day workers and pay them less money under the table. I was first aware of this in LA - there was a known spot to show up at by like 6am to get hired as a day laborer. Then it was the case you'd see likely illegals congregating in big box store parking lots to be hired as day laborers. Then we just opened the border to make corporations happy.
movielover
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Thank you. Talk about nativist and racist.

Your observations are spot on. In the early 80s a dear neighbor, African American, was a roofer. The crew he was working with were doing roofs in a new Orange County housing track. A GC pulls up w a truckload of illegals and asks the Superintendent what his weekly cost is for roofing labor. He tells the man. The GC says they'll do it for HALF the cost.

The Superintendent pulls the current roofing crew together, it was a Tuesday, tells them the reality, and he's swapping crews. He'll pay them through Friday, as a small severance, but they can take the week off right now and go home. They were quite angry, most married men. They refused the week off, seen as a handout - they all worked through Friday for their paycheck.

35 - 50 million illegal immigrants are one big reason for stagnating blue collar wages, and millions aren't used to pick fruit. That's a liberal fallacy.
movielover
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Moss Landing huge battery power plant fire. Arson?

movielover
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Democrats...

Eastern Oregon Bear
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bearister said:

How many are carpenters and other tradesmen in the greater Los Angeles area?
Eh, you don't need carpenters and tradesmen to rebuild all those houses and businesses. Besides, if there's problems, it'll be the fault of those liberal democrats.
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