bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

There's been a lot of finger pointing in the past few days over who isn't taking the coronavirus seriously. Some have pointed to millennials out at bars or brunch, saying they are not taking recommendations to stay home and avoid crowds to prevent the spread of the virus. Others have gotten frustrated with baby boomers stubbornly carrying on with their weekly gatherings and travel plans. (President Trump asked Americans to avoid unnecessary travel in new national guidelines Monday.)

But when you look at recent polls, there just isn't any evidence that one age group is more concerned than another about the spread of the disease. And furthermore, there doesn't seem to be an age gap in people's willingness to adopt preventive measures.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-one-generation-taking-the-coronavirus-less-seriously-than-others-not-really/

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

Yeah I think it's sunk in for most people.

Going out and getting some sun and exercise is good. They could probably keep the beaches open if they don't get crowded, UVs destroy the virus and sunlight is great for vitamin D. Also great for morale, stress is a killer too.

Cal88 said:

---

Yeah I think it's sunk in for most people.

Going out and getting some sun and exercise is good. They could probably keep the beaches open if they don't get crowded, UVs destroy the virus and sunlight is great for vitamin D. Also great for morale, stress is a killer too.

---

Agreed. Saw a very interesting analysis last night that showed that the tradeoff in deliberately tanking the economy to possibly reduce deaths may result in less deaths from the virus, but will greatly increase deaths due to economic upheaval. It's a Sophie's Choice kind of predicament. Suicide deaths from the 2008-2009 collapse were used in the analysis.

golden sloth said:

---

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

There's been a lot of finger pointing in the past few days over who isn't taking the coronavirus seriously. Some have pointed to millennials out at bars or brunch, saying they are not taking recommendations to stay home and avoid crowds to prevent the spread of the virus. Others have gotten frustrated with baby boomers stubbornly carrying on with their weekly gatherings and travel plans. (President Trump asked Americans to avoid unnecessary travel in new national guidelines Monday.)

But when you look at recent polls, there just isn't any evidence that one age group is more concerned than another about the spread of the disease. And furthermore, there doesn't seem to be an age gap in people's willingness to adopt preventive measures.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-one-generation-taking-the-coronavirus-less-seriously-than-others-not-really/

---

Thanks for that. I suspected as much. Stupid and/or stubborn people exist in every demographic.

LMK5 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Yeah I think it's sunk in for most people.

Going out and getting some sun and exercise is good. They could probably keep the beaches open if they don't get crowded, UVs destroy the virus and sunlight is great for vitamin D. Also great for morale, stress is a killer too.

---

Agreed. Saw a very interesting analysis last night that showed that the tradeoff in deliberately tanking the economy to possibly reduce deaths may result in less deaths from the virus, but will greatly increase deaths due to economic upheaval. It's a Sophie's Choice kind of predicament. Suicide deaths from the 2008-2009 collapse were used in the analysis.

---

Yes indeed, we've dropped the ball in totally underestimating this epidemic back in January and February, and now it looks like we risk overreacting, the pendulum might swing too far on the other side.

The economic shock is going to push tens of millions of people into despair, there will be far more deaths from elevated stress levels and severe economic hardship, and not just from suicides. High levels of cortisol and other direct and indirect effects from this (like people having to choose between food, rent money or medecines) are at least as deadly as covid19, way higher than its 1%-2% kill rate.

We should go into full lockdown mode for a month or so, then move to the kind of semi-functional safer plateau they have already successfully implemented in Korea and Japan, with constant temperature checks, very high levels of testing, tracking, isolating and quarantining any outbreaks. That's how we get through this with minimum impact.


Hopefully the full testing mode will be in place by mid/late April, masks should start trickling in by then, followed by a flood of masks later this Spring, at which point we will be told that masks work and we shouldn't even think about leaving home without one, as opposed to being told they are ineffective (because there aren't enough of them right now)...

LMK5 said:

---

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

---

But here's the thing about that...

I am sitting in my living room today watching a parade of people (mostly younger women) walking and jogging by on my residential street. They are all keeping a very far distance from each other - maybe 100 feet or more.

However, if someone coughs the virus can linger in the air for 30 minutes. Sure, it disperses quickly outdoors, but how quickly? (Answer: It depends.)

Even though some of these joggers are 100 feet apart, they pass through the space the other person was occupying in only a matter of seconds, maybe 10-20 at most.

That is an example of following the letter of the law but not the spirit. Sure, they are not collecting in groups, but it is certainly not the best way to isolate - especially when none of them are wearing masks.

Another example is golfers. Until Garcetti shut down the golf courses yesterday people were still getting together to golf! (The closure affects playgrounds, fitness equipment areas, courts, skate parks, multi-use fields, pickleball courts, golf courses and lawn bowling.)


Look at this!:

https://abc7.com/video/embed/?pid=6041000

The idea is to stay away from other people. If a place is "full of people" I would not want to be there no matter how far away they stayed from me.

dimitrig said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

---

But here's the thing about that...

I am sitting in my living room today watching a parade of people (mostly younger women) walking and jogging by on my residential street. They are all keeping a very far distance from each other - maybe 100 feet or more.

However, if someone coughs the virus can linger in the air for 30 minutes. Sure, it disperses quickly outdoors, but how quickly? (Answer: It depends.)

Even though some of these joggers are 100 feet apart, they pass through the space the other person was occupying in only a matter of seconds, maybe 10-20 at most.

That is an example of following the letter of the law but not the spirit. Sure, they are not collecting in groups, but it is certainly not the best way to isolate - especially when none of them are wearing masks.

Another example is golfers. Until Garcetti shut down the golf courses yesterday people were still getting together to golf! (The closure affects playgrounds, fitness equipment areas, courts, skate parks, multi-use fields, pickleball courts, golf courses and lawn bowling.)


Look at this!:

https://abc7.com/video/embed/?pid=6041000

The idea is to stay away from other people. If a place is "full of people" I would not want to be there no matter how far away they stayed from me.

---

Yes, I was only stating what I observed, not what I thought was correct. At the airport, with old ladies being carefully screened and such, we have "security theater" on display. Much of what is being practiced in public today is "social distancing theater."

I guess I'm not too concerned about joggers passing people in the street. Yes, I suppose it's possible someone could catch the virus that way, but given that (1) you're outdoors and (2) you're still much more limited in exposure than if you were commuting to and from work, visiting the gym, pregaming at a bar, then going to a concert or sporting event, etc., it seems like allowing people to do this and not any of the above is still effective social distancing. Maybe there are or will be studies that disprove this idea, I don't know.

It's sort of like doing restaurant takeout instead of dine-in. The risk is not zero, but it's significantly less than the other option and at least gives people a way to still have the food they like.

dimitrig said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

---

But here's the thing about that...

I am sitting in my living room today watching a parade of people (mostly younger women) walking and jogging by on my residential street. They are all keeping a very far distance from each other - maybe 100 feet or more.

However, if someone coughs the virus can linger in the air for 30 minutes. Sure, it disperses quickly outdoors, but how quickly? (Answer: It depends.)

Even though some of these joggers are 100 feet apart, they pass through the space the other person was occupying in only a matter of seconds, maybe 10-20 at most.

That is an example of following the letter of the law but not the spirit. Sure, they are not collecting in groups, but it is certainly not the best way to isolate - especially when none of them are wearing masks.

Another example is golfers. Until Garcetti shut down the golf courses yesterday people were still getting together to golf! (The closure affects playgrounds, fitness equipment areas, courts, skate parks, multi-use fields, pickleball courts, golf courses and lawn bowling.)


Look at this!:

https://abc7.com/video/embed/?pid=6041000

The idea is to stay away from other people. If a place is "full of people" I would not want to be there no matter how far away they stayed from me.

---

Golfers aren't going to get CV from breathing the air of the party ahead of them, but potentially from others in their party, or from touching their eyes/mouth/inside their nose after lifting the flag, ball, clipboard, getting a drink or going to the bathroom at the clubhouse.

I don't think the virus lingers in the air for 30min outdoors, especially not in warm dry sunny CA weather. It's probably more like for a minute or less, in very low concentrations. The larger droplets fall to the ground right away within a few feet from the origin.

Japan is starting its cherry blossom festival now, they've cancelled large events, and foreign tourism, but I think it is still ongoing, in a low-key small party toned down version. Families and parties that live together should be allowed to stroll outside as long as the crowd size is small enough.

Cal88 said:

---

...Golfers aren't going to get CV from breathing the air of the party ahead of them, but potentially ....from touching their eyes/mouth/inside their nose after lifting the flag...

---

Whoever came up with the rule change that you can leave the pin in while putting must have been clairvoyant.

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

That's OK. They don't vote.

sycasey said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

There's been a lot of finger pointing in the past few days over who isn't taking the coronavirus seriously. Some have pointed to millennials out at bars or brunch, saying they are not taking recommendations to stay home and avoid crowds to prevent the spread of the virus. Others have gotten frustrated with baby boomers stubbornly carrying on with their weekly gatherings and travel plans. (President Trump asked Americans to avoid unnecessary travel in new national guidelines Monday.)

But when you look at recent polls, there just isn't any evidence that one age group is more concerned than another about the spread of the disease. And furthermore, there doesn't seem to be an age gap in people's willingness to adopt preventive measures.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-one-generation-taking-the-coronavirus-less-seriously-than-others-not-really/

---

Thanks for that. I suspected as much. Stupid and/or stubborn people exist in every demographic.

---

Including the BI Off Topic demographic. Not you. You're on the other end of the scale.

Cal88 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

---

But here's the thing about that...

I am sitting in my living room today watching a parade of people (mostly younger women) walking and jogging by on my residential street. They are all keeping a very far distance from each other - maybe 100 feet or more.

However, if someone coughs the virus can linger in the air for 30 minutes. Sure, it disperses quickly outdoors, but how quickly? (Answer: It depends.)

Even though some of these joggers are 100 feet apart, they pass through the space the other person was occupying in only a matter of seconds, maybe 10-20 at most.

That is an example of following the letter of the law but not the spirit. Sure, they are not collecting in groups, but it is certainly not the best way to isolate - especially when none of them are wearing masks.

Another example is golfers. Until Garcetti shut down the golf courses yesterday people were still getting together to golf! (The closure affects playgrounds, fitness equipment areas, courts, skate parks, multi-use fields, pickleball courts, golf courses and lawn bowling.)


Look at this!:

https://abc7.com/video/embed/?pid=6041000

The idea is to stay away from other people. If a place is "full of people" I would not want to be there no matter how far away they stayed from me.

---

Golfers aren't going to get CV from breathing the air of the party ahead of them, but potentially from others in their party, or from touching their eyes/mouth/inside their nose after lifting the flag, ball, clipboard, getting a drink or going to the bathroom at the clubhouse.

I don't think the virus lingers in the air for 30min outdoors, especially not in warm dry sunny CA weather. It's probably more like for a minute or less, in very low concentrations. The larger droplets fall to the ground right away within a few feet from the origin.

Japan is starting its cherry blossom festival now, they've cancelled large events, and foreign tourism, but I think it is still ongoing, in a low-key small party toned down version. Families and parties that live together should be allowed to stroll outside as long as the crowd size is small enough.

---

The key for golfers (and others, for that matter) is to wash your balls with care.

Big C said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

I was walking on the path in Newport Beach yesterday. While it was full of people, it seemed that most were consciously avoiding collecting in groups.

---

But here's the thing about that...

I am sitting in my living room today watching a parade of people (mostly younger women) walking and jogging by on my residential street. They are all keeping a very far distance from each other - maybe 100 feet or more.

However, if someone coughs the virus can linger in the air for 30 minutes. Sure, it disperses quickly outdoors, but how quickly? (Answer: It depends.)

Even though some of these joggers are 100 feet apart, they pass through the space the other person was occupying in only a matter of seconds, maybe 10-20 at most.

That is an example of following the letter of the law but not the spirit. Sure, they are not collecting in groups, but it is certainly not the best way to isolate - especially when none of them are wearing masks.

Another example is golfers. Until Garcetti shut down the golf courses yesterday people were still getting together to golf! (The closure affects playgrounds, fitness equipment areas, courts, skate parks, multi-use fields, pickleball courts, golf courses and lawn bowling.)


Look at this!:

https://abc7.com/video/embed/?pid=6041000

The idea is to stay away from other people. If a place is "full of people" I would not want to be there no matter how far away they stayed from me.

---

Golfers aren't going to get CV from breathing the air of the party ahead of them, but potentially from others in their party, or from touching their eyes/mouth/inside their nose after lifting the flag, ball, clipboard, getting a drink or going to the bathroom at the clubhouse.

I don't think the virus lingers in the air for 30min outdoors, especially not in warm dry sunny CA weather. It's probably more like for a minute or less, in very low concentrations. The larger droplets fall to the ground right away within a few feet from the origin.

Japan is starting its cherry blossom festival now, they've cancelled large events, and foreign tourism, but I think it is still ongoing, in a low-key small party toned down version. Families and parties that live together should be allowed to stroll outside as long as the crowd size is small enough.

---

The key for golfers (and others, for that matter) is to wash your balls with care.

---

https://imgur.com/gallery/4tmqdVD

Professor David Romer said:

---

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

That's OK. They don't vote.

---

.

...and now that we know young people can get the virus, this may be a great way to improve the gene pool via Social Darwinism.

To think that poor Clem here is never going to get to pass on his "Fosters beer can in the face trick" to his spawn.

Anarchistbear said:

---

If you look at the CDC website it says 15,200 cases with the following caveat:

"This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting."

In other words they are still on last thursday? The numbers are purposely being kept low by the government.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

---

This website seems to be a lot more current than CDC's: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's the real picture here with Clem...

First it was the Herd Immunity Theory. Now it's...

Coronavirus: UK goes into lockdown with public ordered to stay at home - Business Insider


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-public-ordered-stay-at-home-covid-19-2020-3
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-public-ordered-stay-at-home-covid-19-2020-3%3famp

...but didn't the...,,




....already?

bearister said:

---

Professor David Romer said:

---

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

That's OK. They don't vote.

---

.

...and now that we know young people can get the virus, this may be a great way to improve the gene pool via Social Darwinism.

To think that poor Clem here is never going to get to pass on his "Fosters beer can in the face trick" to his spawn.

---

I'm sure his parents are so proud.

bearister said:

---

First it was the Herd Immunity Theory. Now it's...

Coronavirus: UK goes into lockdown with public ordered to stay at home - Business Insider


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-public-ordered-stay-at-home-covid-19-2020-3
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-public-ordered-stay-at-home-covid-19-2020-3%3famp

...but didn't the...,,




....already?

---

I like that.

I saw the original and it was the wrong people. These were his real parents.

the message in Japan seems to have gotten through to everyone:

Big C said:

---

Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-digit" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

LMK5 said:

---

bearister said:

---

Professor David Romer said:

---

bearister said:

---

College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

That's OK. They don't vote.

---

.

...and now that we know young people can get the virus, this may be a great way to improve the gene pool via Social Darwinism.

To think that poor Clem here is never going to get to pass on his "Fosters beer can in the face trick" to his spawn.

---

I'm sure his parents are so proud.

---

Parents that have shame don't produce kids that dumb

Shut down the country for 4 weeks as Bill Ackman advocated last week.

Big C said:

---

Big C said:

---

Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-figure" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-figure" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

---

Almost doubling in 2 days. Not good.

Are these numbers at this point really helpful in telling us how well the self quarantine is working? These are people who have had it for a over a week prior to the quarantine. Numbers should be going up as people actually get tested. It gives us an idea of how many people may have it based on updated confirmed cases but not for a few weeks will we know how well this is working. Am I wrong?

sycasey said:

---

I guess I'm not too concerned about joggers passing people in the street. Yes, I suppose it's possible someone could catch the virus that way, but given that (1) you're outdoors and (2) you're still much more limited in exposure than if you were commuting to and from work, visiting the gym, pregaming at a bar, then going to a concert or sporting event, etc., it seems like allowing people to do this and not any of the above is still effective social distancing. Maybe there are or will be studies that disprove this idea, I don't know.

It's sort of like doing restaurant takeout instead of dine-in. The risk is not zero, but it's significantly less than the other option and at least gives people a way to still have the food they like.

---

Took the newspaper down to the beach to read yesterday along with the book of the week. Parked looking at the channel in front of the Dana Point jetty. Walkway right in front. Combine Sunday with indoor frustration and hoards walking on the sidewalk. Problem was we commented in passing everyone was nowhere near six feet away. There is still a casualness about certain parts of this even though a general attempt is being made. The more serious we take it collectively, the better off we will be in the long run.

GBear4Life said:

---

Are these numbers at this point really helpful in telling us how well the self quarantine is working? These are people who have had it for a over a week prior to the quarantine. Numbers should be going up as people actually get tested. It gives us an idea of how many people may have it based on updated confirmed cases but not for a few weeks will we know how well this is working. Am I wrong?

---

I would agree that we need to get more testing before we can be sure, but the article I cited isn't just looking at total numbers. It's also looking at deaths, and also comparing CA to NY, the Bay Area to LA, etc. By each metric the Bay Area looks to have a flatter curve.

dimitrig said:

---

Big C said:

---

Big C said:

---

Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-figure" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-figure" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

---

Almost doubling in 2 days. Not good.

---

And look out, smaller states, because here comes Louisiana! 1,400 with a bullet! The Big Easy's looking like a new hot spot, with most all of the state's cases being in Jefferson or Orleans Parrish. When you think of it, Mardi Gras was a little over four weeks ago, just enough time for...

Hard to believe, what with "Coach O" having released that video not only recommending, but also DEMONSTRATING how to cough into one's arm. (very February of him)

Cal88 said:

---

---

Japan's placement on that chart doesn't seem quite right.