GBear4Life said:

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Are these numbers at this point really helpful in telling us how well the self quarantine is working? These are people who have had it for a over a week prior to the quarantine. Numbers should be going up as people actually get tested. It gives us an idea of how many people may have it based on updated confirmed cases but not for a few weeks will we know how well this is working. Am I wrong?

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Correct, it's too early for these numbers to tell us about how the social distancing/shelter in place is working. We will begin to get an idea on that in early April. Right now, it is still getting worse before it gets better.

These numbers also can be highly influenced by the amount of testing (obviously). California ain't testing for squat at this point.

Number of fatalities (and whether the rate of them is accelerating or not) is probably even better, but I thought I was already getting too morbid just counting the cases on a sports fan board. Even the fatalities can be fudged, as Cal88 noted, by saying, "Cause of death: pneumonia."

Another meaningful number to show where a region is on the curve is "recovered cases" / "fatalities", which is also on the MSN COVID-19 tracker.

Thursday, 3/26/20, Noon

At the risk of trivializing this or sounding the wrong tone, according to the MSNBing COVID-!9 tracker, it looks like both Italy and the U.S. are about to overtake China for the top spot* at almost the same time! (China is stable at 81,000+. Italy is 80,000+ and rising. We are 79,000+ and rising rapidly.) Should happen some time this afternoon. This is a little like watching the BART car races on the scoreboard at Memorial Stadium.

Edit: We just passed 80k. and will be overtaking China before Italy does, unless those Italians are about to do a data dump.


* total cases reported

We've passed Italy!

You older folks may remember Dave Wottle in the 800 m. run in the '72 Olympic Games. ("He's passed one Kenyan! He's passed the other Kenyan! ... ")

And the lead story for the next news cycle is:

The U.S.A. has passed China and now has the most reported COVID-19 cases of any country.

The US chart is going to keep surging as the testing starts getting implemented on a wider scale. You're going to see the US curve shoot up over Italy in the next 10 days then flatten around 150k-200k.

With the uneven measures we're taking, could it maybe go even higher? We don't do "Draconian" too well...

Let me guess: We're actually NOT going to be "raring to go by Easter".

NUMBER 1!!!! We're Number 1! Thank you, Great Pumpkin Leader! MAGA!

Cal88 said:

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The US chart is going to keep surging as the testing starts getting implemented on a wider scale. You're going to see the US curve shoot up over Italy in the next 10 days then flatten around 150k-200k.

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I have to say my one issue with this chart is that some of the curves are "flattening" at 50K because the graph is set up so the 2nd 50K on the chart is about 1/10 the height of the first 50K. If the chart was one to one proportion, those curves would look hell scary.

OaktownBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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The US chart is going to keep surging as the testing starts getting implemented on a wider scale. You're going to see the US curve shoot up over Italy in the next 10 days then flatten around 150k-200k.

---

I have to say my one issue with this chart is that some of the curves are "flattening" at 50K because the graph is set up so the 2nd 50K on the chart is about 1/10 the height of the first 50K. If the chart was one to one proportion, those curves would look hell scary.

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The scale on those charts is logarithmic, because it's a much more useful way to track a data set growing at an exponential rate. If on a log scale the curves flatten, it actually means that the growth rate is declining, and the epidemic is being curtailed, even though the numbers themselves might still be growing in absolute terms. That aspect is highlighted on a log scale chart, whereas on a regular/linear graph you would miss it.

Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-digit" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

---

Wow, the situation has really progressed in only four days' time. Cases as of Thursday afternoon, 3/26:

"5 digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

USA, 84k
China, 81k
Italy, 81k
Spain, 56k
Germany, 46k
Iran, 29k
France, 29k
Switzerland, 12k
UK, 12k

"4 digit" States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 37,000
NJ, 4,400
WA, 3,200
CA, 2,600
MI, 2,300
FL, 2,000
IL, 1,900
MA, 1800
LA, 1,800
PA, 1,700
TX, 1,400
GA, 1,200
CO, 1,100

Wishful thinking makes me want to say that I see the curve starting to flatten in California, but that might well be the lack of testing. Meanwhile, you can see spreads from NY to NJ and then to PA (also up to Boston, but that might be separate). Also from New Orleans, LA, north to Texas (Houston area). Other worsening hot spots are Chicago and Detroit areas.

Yikes, the US is now the center of all of this. April is going to be... interesting.

April is gonna suck, which may be the most obvious thing ever. This is great news for our health workers and, by extention us, though:
https://www.seiu-uhw.org/press/union-locates-massive-supply-of-n95-masks/

Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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The US chart is going to keep surging as the testing starts getting implemented on a wider scale. You're going to see the US curve shoot up over Italy in the next 10 days then flatten around 150k-200k.

---

I have to say my one issue with this chart is that some of the curves are "flattening" at 50K because the graph is set up so the 2nd 50K on the chart is about 1/10 the height of the first 50K. If the chart was one to one proportion, those curves would look hell scary.

---

The scale on those charts is logarithmic, because it's a much more useful way to track a data set growing at an exponential rate. If on a log scale the curves flatten, it actually means that the growth rate is declining, and the epidemic is being curtailed, even though the numbers themselves might still be growing in absolute terms. That aspect is highlighted on a log scale chart, whereas on a regular/linear graph you would miss it.

---

An exponential plotted on a log plot is a straight line.

Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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The US chart is going to keep surging as the testing starts getting implemented on a wider scale. You're going to see the US curve shoot up over Italy in the next 10 days then flatten around 150k-200k.

---

I have to say my one issue with this chart is that some of the curves are "flattening" at 50K because the graph is set up so the 2nd 50K on the chart is about 1/10 the height of the first 50K. If the chart was one to one proportion, those curves would look hell scary.

---

The scale on those charts is logarithmic, because it's a much more useful way to track a data set growing at an exponential rate. If on a log scale the curves flatten, it actually means that the growth rate is declining, and the epidemic is being curtailed, even though the numbers themselves might still be growing in absolute terms. That aspect is highlighted on a log scale chart, whereas on a regular/linear graph you would miss it.

---

I DO understand the value of it, so I'm not criticizing it in that way, but I think that it is misleading to people who mostly don't realize what it is plotting and it makes the situation look a lot less scary.

According to a report released on Sunday, over 43,000 people who had tested positive for the Chinese coronavirus were not included in the official tally of confirmed coronavirus cases in China.
The South China Morning Post revealed that Communist China purposely left these people out of the tally because they were "silent carriers" and had little to no symptoms.

Quote:

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The asymptomatic individuals were placed in quarantine and were monitored by authorities, but they were not added to the China's official tally of confirmed coronavirus cases, the SCMP reported.
China's failure to report asymptomatic coronavirus cases in its official tally goes against the World Health Organization's guidance that anyone who tests positive for the virus should be counted as a confirmed case, regardless of their symptoms.

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bearlyamazing said:

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Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

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*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stop gap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

bearister said:

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bearlyamazing said:

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Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

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*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stop gap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

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How do they reach that 3.5 billion number? 10 for every single person in our country? The dominant majority of people aren't using masks. Let's say 1 million medical personnel and other individuals need masks. That's 3,500 per person. If 10 million need masks (which is hard to imagine), that's 350 masks per person.

bearlyamazing said:

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bearister said:

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bearlyamazing said:

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Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

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*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stop gap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

---

How do they reach that 3.5 billion number? 10 for every single person in our country? The dominant majority of people aren't using masks. Let's say 1 million medical personnel and other individuals need masks. That's 3,500 per person. If 10 million need masks (which is hard to imagine), that's 350 masks per person.

---

Have you left your bunker to look around? Almost everyone out and about is wearing masks!

I'm out probably more than most and only see a handful of people here or there in them.

Are you living in a leper colony? Do you think more than 10 million people in the country are wearing masks daily?

Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-digit" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

---

Wow, the situation has really progressed in only four days' time. Cases as of Thursday afternoon, 3/26:

"5 digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

USA, 84k
China, 81k
Italy, 81k
Spain, 56k
Germany, 46k
Iran, 29k
France, 29k
Switzerland, 12k
UK, 12k

"4 digit" States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 37,000
NJ, 4,400
WA, 3,200
CA, 2,600
MI, 2,300
FL, 2,000
IL, 1,900
MA, 1800
LA, 1,800
PA, 1,700
TX, 1,400
GA, 1,200
CO, 1,100

Wishful thinking makes me want to say that I see the curve starting to flatten in California, but that might well be the lack of testing. Meanwhile, you can see spreads from NY to NJ and then to PA (also up to Boston, but that might be separate). Also from New Orleans, LA, north to Texas (Houston area). Other worsening hot spots are Chicago and Detroit areas.

Yikes, the US is now the center of all of this. April is going to be... interesting.

---

It's only been six days since I started keeping track like this. Sure, a lot of it can be attributed to more testing. Still...

Saturday Afternoon, 3/28/2020

Countries Reporting Cases in the "5-digits" (well, 6 digits in one case):

U.S., 123k
Italy, 92k
China, 81k
Spain, 73k
Germany, 57k
France, 38k
Iran, 35k
UK, 17k
Switz., 14k
Neth., 10k

Notes: China, once in the lead, won't even be in medal contention pretty soon. The UK is on the move, led by their Prime Minister and Crown Prince.


US States in or Past "4 digits":

NY, 52,800
NJ, 11,100
MI, 4,700
CA, 4,600
WA, 4,300
MA, 4,300
FL, 4,000
IL, 3,500
LA, 3,300
PA, 2,800
GA, 2,400
CO, 2,000
TX, 2,000
CT, 1,500
OH, 1,400
TN, 1,400
IN, 1,200

Notes: Michigan is getting a lot of ink, but look at some of those northeast states on the rise, like Penn, Mass. and Conn. (not to mention Jersey). Down south, we hear about NOLA, but Georgia is coming up, too. Less than 10 days ago, WV was so proud of being the last state to not have a case reported, they were thinking of redoing their state motto, but now they're up over 100, with a reported outbreak in a nursing home (I can kid WV, as I have some roots there... my uncle helped found the first church of its denomination in the state capital, Charleston).

Bottom line: We're kinda screwed, aren't we? But tell me it's more than my imagination that CA is starting to rise at a bit slower rate. It might be lack of testing, but it might be the beginnings of shelter-in-place paying dividends.

Question for Florida: How is that Spring Break thing workin' out?

Columbia is going to win the natty.

bearlyamazing said:

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bearister said:

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bearlyamazing said:

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Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

---

*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stop gap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

---

How do they reach that 3.5 billion number? 10 for every single person in our country? The dominant majority of people aren't using masks. Let's say 1 million medical personnel and other individuals need masks. That's 3,500 per person. If 10 million need masks (which is hard to imagine), that's 350 masks per person.

---

One number I saw days ago is that hospitals that used to use 4000 masks needed and exponential number of that for COVID19. Take a look what should be done by a health care worker going from infected patient to infected patient. It is not about you and me bunkered in our homes.

bearlyamazing said:

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bearister said:

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bearlyamazing said:

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Great news but how does one supplier have 39 million masks and why weren't they sold or given to hospitals till they were called on? That's A LOT of masks.

---

*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stop gap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

---

How do they reach that 3.5 billion number? 10 for every single person in our country? The dominant majority of people aren't using masks. Let's say 1 million medical personnel and other individuals need masks. That's 3,500 per person. If 10 million need masks (which is hard to imagine), that's 350 masks per person.

---

Here's one way to reach that number. 1 million front line responders x 10 masks a day each x 300 working days each = 3 billion masks. Throw in another .5B for good measure. You know, in case there are more than a million responders, they need more than 10 a piece, etc.

Taking a break today from the tedious every-other-day COVID Case Count. Instead, I'd like to answer the charge that I am actually rooting for the U.S. to have a lot of cases because I don't really love my country, or I hate President Trump, or whatever.

Nothing could be further from the truth! (Well, except for that very last part about me hating Trump.) And to prove it, I'd like to share a stat about the good ol' U.S.A. that's more positive than a guest at a Westport, Connecticut birthday party:

Let's compare the US coronavirus situation with that of the top five countries in Europe (combined):

US, population about 330 million.

Germany + France + Italy + Great Britain + Spain, population about 320 million. (so, approximately the same)

US COVID-19 cases as of today, about 170,000.
Those Euro countries as of today, about 324,000!

Now, some people hate the cases stat, citing its dependence on testing, so let's look at fatalities...

US COVID-19 fatalities as of today, about 3,000
Those Euro countries as of today, about 24,000!

Is this a great country, or what? The last thing I want our country to be is one of those Socialist Euro-nations that don't even speak English! [ Edit: AMERICAN English... the REAL English ]

And please don't tell me it's still pretty early in this game, because I'm the guy, when we score first against Stanfurd or U$C, I turn to their rooting section and start the gloating! Ya got to do it while you still can!

Go Bears! Go USA! Let's whup this thing! Worldwide!

Keepsin its real in th' Oaktown, my Homies!

going4roses said:

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Damn. Gangster.

Bobodeluxe said:

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Keepsin its real in th' Oaktown, my Homies!

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Makes me think a pandemic to thin out the herd isn't the worst thing in the world...my god.

GBear4Life said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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Keepsin its real in th' Oaktown, my Homies!

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Makes me think a pandemic to thin out the herd isn't the worst thing in the world...my god.

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That's quite a large herd of organ donors!

Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Big C said:

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Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

---

48 hours later (from above): Cases reported as of Tuesday afternoon (3/24)

"5-digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 69k
USA 54k
Spain, 40k
Germany, 33k
Iran, 25k
France, 22k

"4-digit" states (to nearest hundred)

NY, 26,000
NJ, 3,700
CA, 2,300
WA, 2,200
MI, 1,800
IL, 1,500
FL, 1,400
GA, 1,000

Source: MSN COVID-19 tracker

Notes: USA rising fast. New York and New Jersey rising fast. Look out for Georgia.

Surely not reliable statistics, as noted, for so many reasons, but sticking to the same source might tend to make it "unreliable in a consistent sort of way". And the unreliablity is certainly in the under-reporting, not over-reporting.

---

Wow, the situation has really progressed in only four days' time. Cases as of Thursday afternoon, 3/26:

"5 digit" Countries (to nearest thousand)

USA, 84k
China, 81k
Italy, 81k
Spain, 56k
Germany, 46k
Iran, 29k
France, 29k
Switzerland, 12k
UK, 12k

"4 digit" States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 37,000
NJ, 4,400
WA, 3,200
CA, 2,600
MI, 2,300
FL, 2,000
IL, 1,900
MA, 1800
LA, 1,800
PA, 1,700
TX, 1,400
GA, 1,200
CO, 1,100

Wishful thinking makes me want to say that I see the curve starting to flatten in California, but that might well be the lack of testing. Meanwhile, you can see spreads from NY to NJ and then to PA (also up to Boston, but that might be separate). Also from New Orleans, LA, north to Texas (Houston area). Other worsening hot spots are Chicago and Detroit areas.

Yikes, the US is now the center of all of this. April is going to be... interesting.

---

It's only been six days since I started keeping track like this. Sure, a lot of it can be attributed to more testing. Still...

Saturday Afternoon, 3/28/2020

Countries Reporting Cases in the "5-digits" (well, 6 digits in one case):

U.S., 123k
Italy, 92k
China, 81k
Spain, 73k
Germany, 57k
France, 38k
Iran, 35k
UK, 17k
Switz., 14k
Neth., 10k

Notes: China, once in the lead, won't even be in medal contention pretty soon. The UK is on the move, led by their Prime Minister and Crown Prince.


US States in or Past "4 digits":

NY, 52,800
NJ, 11,100
MI, 4,700
CA, 4,600
WA, 4,300
MA, 4,300
FL, 4,000
IL, 3,500
LA, 3,300
PA, 2,800
GA, 2,400
CO, 2,000
TX, 2,000
CT, 1,500
OH, 1,400
TN, 1,400
IN, 1`,200

Notes: Michigan is getting a lot of ink, but look at some of those northeast states on the rise, like Penn, Mass. and Conn. (not to mention Jersey). Down south, we hear about NOLA, but Georgia is coming up, too. Less than 10 days ago, WV was so proud of being the last state to not have a case reported, they were thinking of redoing their state motto, but now they're up over 100, with a reported outbreak in a nursing home (I can kid WV, as I have some roots there... my uncle helped found the first church of its denomination in the state capital, Charleston).

Bottom line: We're kinda screwed, aren't we? But tell me it's more than my imagination that CA is starting to rise at a bit slower rate. It might be lack of testing, but it might be the beginnings of shelter-in-place paying dividends.

---

Day Ten of keeping this list. COVID-19 cases as of Wednesday Afternoon, 4/1/2020 (no April Fools Joke)

Countries with More than 10,000 Cases (cases / fatalities):

USA, 215,000 / 5,000
Italy, 111,000 / 13,000
Spain, 104,000 / 9,400
China, 82,000 / 3,300
Germany, 78,000
France, 57,000
Iran, 48,000
UK, 29,000 / 2,400
Switz, 18,000
Turkey, 16,000
Belgium, 14,000
Neth.,14,000
Austria, 11,000
S Korea, 10,000
Canada, 10,000

US States with More than 2,000 Cases (cases / fatalities):

NY, 84,000 / 1940
NJ, 22,000 / 355
CA, 9,600 / 200
MI, 9,300 / 337
FL, 7,800 / 100
MA, 7,700 / 122
IL, 7,000 / 140
LA, 6,400 / 270
WA, 6,000 / 250
PN, 5,800 / 74
GA, 4,800 / 154
TX, 4,000 / 58
CT, 3,600 / 85
CO, 3,300
TN, 2,900 / 24
IN, 2,600
OH, 2,500 / 65
MD, 2,000

Notes: Previous state lists went down to 1,000 cases reported, but now I stopped at 2,000 (too many). The mayor of some city in Georgia CANCELLED his city's plan to shelter-in-place (to begin this week), as he was getting too much negative feedback about it from citizens fearing Big Government control. Wow.

I wonder how Side Show attendance is in Moscow?

Russians Risk Fines, Jail Time for Dodging Coronavirus Quarantine - The Moscow Times


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/01/russians-risk-fines-jail-time-for-dodging-coronavirus-quarantine-a69818