Well got into a interesting Zoom round table with some scientists from Scientists Against COVID. Will try to be as non-political as possible:
1) COVID is more harmful and less controllable than most viruses.
2) Countries close to or eradicating COVID so far fit into two different categories: (1) strong central governments that can control the public, and relied on testing, investigation and isolating carriers (cited were the Swiss, Norway and New Zealand) or the Asian model which is masks and social separation of certain populations, which makes more sense due to density, greater use of public transportation, etc. Political comment: the US and many other countries have left it to local authorities - the central and state equivalent governments the may have overarching non-uniform policies, but the local folks really make health decisions. Not the greatest approach for stopping a pandemic.
3) Upbeat about vaccines surprisingly. The US Warp Speed Initiative is working. Expectations is that there will be 3 to 5 successful vaccines in a few months. There are several candidates that now work 100% on monkeys. Two are in Phase 2 tests which will take a month and one in Phase 3, which is efficacy, and which under new guidelines is 2 to 3 months. The one pharm company that is ahead (political comment coming) probably is through its relationship with Dr. Fauci (yes, they really said that). But the NIH now is partnering with a lot of companies. Likely there will be 3 or so vaccines that will dominate the US market, due to a lot of things, some of the dealing with the nature of the the companies themselves, such as ability to ramp-up production and distribution (just because a vaccine is done with testing, doesn't mean you can get it). All are injections. They expect to vaccines to be very effective. COVID-19 is a very stable virus despite what you read in the papers, and doesn't mutate much. Also to eradicate COVID-19, you don't need 100% effectiveness, just need to immunize a sufficient portion of the population (which is another discussion). The big issue is whether the vaccines will have other immune system impacts. This panel said monkeys didn't have impacts, which is a good sign.
4. There are two promising alternatives. One deals with using approved FDA drugs to block the proteins that deliver COVID. There is a potency issue, you have to take a lot of pills a day for a decent number fo days. The drugs interestingly are owned by the same company (which also is trying to make a vaccine), so the scientists are asking the company to look at the approach, which has been proven in the laboratory, and they think the company will go for it. The other has to do with injecting blood from younger people into older people or those with compromised immune systems. This is over simplified, but the younger blood has stuff in it that will have a regenerative impact on lost smell, taste, neurological or respiratory function. The blood will also have young immune cells, which seem much better at fighting the cells carrying COVID (in other words, the new immune cells attack and kill the COVID impacted cells).
5. They need bodies for their tests. Can't use live subjects. They have to import them because the US doesn't have enough dead folks. Also SIP has lowered the number of influenza deaths, and the need more to these bodies to be used as a control.
6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.
7. Masks are extremely effective (85% to 95%). One of the several areas that the WHO took a beating.
This is a layman listening to scientists. So you get it though my notes, which are subject to my lack of understanding, my possible biases, etc.
Stay safe.
