There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

Anarchistbear said:

---

There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

---

Scientists have no idea how to estimate how many people have immunity presently.

Please note that several companies have published promising data. The below only applies to Moderna.

Moderna finally got around to kind of providing some data.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-moderna/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-clears-key-safety-hurdle-in-mouse-study-idUSKBN23J2S4

Here is the only information made public from the human trials that began in early March,:
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22V33X

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/19/scientists-raise-questions-about-moderna-vaccine-in-market-shaking-report/amp/

good times:
https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-tester-fainted-had-high-fever/


https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/
---

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thrillist.com/amphtml/tech/nation/what-does-moderna-therapeutics-do-why-is-it-a-silicon-valley-secret

https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/13/moderna-therapeutics-biotech-mrna/

> always were a mask
since the Troubles i've been known to drive a car mask-less, walk on some sparsely used trails, and eat dinner with my better half. otherwise, yeah, better safe than sorrry.

Big C said:

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dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

---

Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

---

I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

---

The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

---

Vietnam, the Philippines,Thailand have borders or close ties and extensive travel with China, far more so than Italy, and third world dense cities and people in close quarters. They should have been heavily infected all the way back in December/January.

As well, most western European countries have had very draconian confinement directives, and the population has been extremely compliant. In France you literally had to sign a form every time you stepped out of your house to buy groceries and weren't allowed to do anything else, go to a park or travel inside the country. If your job was officially deemed essential, you had to have a written authorization on you to commute to work, and heavily fined if you strayed outside the commute path. Similar laws in place in the UK, Spain etc.


As to Dr Raoult, his HCQ/Azythro treatment protocol has been implemented in at least two dozen countries, including Turkey, Israel, Russia, Morocco, Algeria and most west African countries. Turkey has the same number of covid19 cases as France, about 180k, but less than 1/6th the number of deaths. I don't think the health system in countries like Algeria and Turkey is anywhere near as good as in France or Italy.

There are about 20 times more Maghrebans in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia than in Spain, France, Belgium and Holland, yet nearly 10 times more Maghrebans in Europe died than in their home countries. In other words, an Algerian or Moroccan living in N. Africa, where HCQ is dispensed early and free of charge to anyone showing symptoms, is nearly 50 times less likely to die from covid19 than their counterparts in France, Spain or Belgium.

Iran, which had the worst outbreak outside China all the way back in February, stabilized its situation once they implemented HCQ as a treatment. their death rate per capita is now 1/5 that of Italy. Russia, which also administers HCQ/Azythro to patients testing positive, has over 500,000 covid cases so far, more than the UK and France combined, but 1/10th the covid deaths. Within France proper, regions where Raoult's regimen was widely implemented ended up with 1/7th the death rate of the national average.

Eventually, the shear numbers and differentials from all these countries will be too hard to ignore.

Anarchistbear said:

---

There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

---

There are some tests which have been one to screen for residual coronavirus class antibodies with a high level of sensitivity, they have been used to sample populations, this is where the 40%-70% estimate came from.

Cal88 said:

---

Big C said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

---

Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

---

I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

---

The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

---

Vietnam, the Philippines,Thailand have borders or close ties and extensive travel with China, far more so than Italy, and third world dense cities and people in close quarters. They should have been heavily infected all the way back in December/January.

As well, most western European countries have had very draconian confinement directives, and the population has been extremely compliant. In France you literally had to sign a form every time you stepped out of your house to buy groceries and weren't allowed to do anything else, go to a park or travel inside the country. If your job was officially deemed essential, you had to have a written authorization on you to commute to work, and heavily fined if you strayed outside the commute path. Similar laws in place in the UK, Spain etc.


As to Dr Raoult, his HCQ/Azythro treatment protocol has been implemented in at least two dozen countries, including Turkey, Israel, Russia, Morocco, Algeria and most west African countries. Turkey has the same number of covid19 cases as France, about 180k, but less than 1/6th the number of deaths. I don't think the health system in countries like Algeria and Turkey is anywhere near as good as in France or Italy.

There are about 20 times more Maghrebans in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia than in Spain, France, Belgium and Holland, yet nearly 10 times more Maghrebans in Europe died than in their home countries. In other words, an Algerian or Moroccan living in N. Africa, where HCQ is dispensed early and free of charge to anyone showing symptoms, is nearly 50 times less likely to die from covid19 than their counterparts in France, Spain or Belgium.

Iran, which had the worst outbreak outside China all the way back in February, stabilized its situation once they implemented HCQ as a treatment. their death rate per capita is now 1/5 that of Italy. Russia, which also administers HCQ/Azythro to patients testing positive, has over 500,000 covid cases so far, more than the UK and France combined, but 1/10th the covid deaths. Within France proper, regions where Raoult's regimen was widely implemented ended up with 1/7th the death rate of the national average.

Eventually, the shear numbers and differentials from all these countries will be too hard to ignore.

---

I think that the numbers in Third World countries don't look as bad because they do a poor job of testing. If they find a pauper dead in the street in an African slum I am imagining that they don't do an autopsy to find a cause of death including a COVID-19 test. The Western European countries are very meticulous about such things. Here in the US we are seeing that some states are doing a lot of testing and producing accurate records while others are not.

Anarchistbear said:

---

There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

---

While there is no data yet to strongly support the idea that people who have recovered from COVID-19 will have some immunity, if they DIDN'T it would fly in the face of everything we know about human viruses like this.

Isn't this basically how vaccines work?

New York is making the U.S.' coronavirus trends look better than they are - Axios


https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-new-cases-second-wave-new-york-b6eda2dc-ef39-4b61-9385-d02a2fd3c494.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Big C said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

---

Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

---

I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

---

The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

---

Vietnam, the Philippines,Thailand have borders or close ties and extensive travel with China, far more so than Italy, and third world dense cities and people in close quarters. They should have been heavily infected all the way back in December/January.

As well, most western European countries have had very draconian confinement directives, and the population has been extremely compliant. In France you literally had to sign a form every time you stepped out of your house to buy groceries and weren't allowed to do anything else, go to a park or travel inside the country. If your job was officially deemed essential, you had to have a written authorization on you to commute to work, and heavily fined if you strayed outside the commute path. Similar laws in place in the UK, Spain etc.


As to Dr Raoult, his HCQ/Azythro treatment protocol has been implemented in at least two dozen countries, including Turkey, Israel, Russia, Morocco, Algeria and most west African countries. Turkey has the same number of covid19 cases as France, about 180k, but less than 1/6th the number of deaths. I don't think the health system in countries like Algeria and Turkey is anywhere near as good as in France or Italy.

There are about 20 times more Maghrebans in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia than in Spain, France, Belgium and Holland, yet nearly 10 times more Maghrebans in Europe died than in their home countries. In other words, an Algerian or Moroccan living in N. Africa, where HCQ is dispensed early and free of charge to anyone showing symptoms, is nearly 50 times less likely to die from covid19 than their counterparts in France, Spain or Belgium.

Iran, which had the worst outbreak outside China all the way back in February, stabilized its situation once they implemented HCQ as a treatment. their death rate per capita is now 1/5 that of Italy. Russia, which also administers HCQ/Azythro to patients testing positive, has over 500,000 covid cases so far, more than the UK and France combined, but 1/10th the covid deaths. Within France proper, regions where Raoult's regimen was widely implemented ended up with 1/7th the death rate of the national average.

Eventually, the shear numbers and differentials from all these countries will be too hard to ignore.

---

I think that the numbers in Third World countries don't look as bad because they do a poor job of testing. If they find a pauper dead in the street in an African slum I am imagining that they don't do an autopsy to find a cause of death including a COVID-19 test. The Western European countries are very meticulous about such things. Here in the US we are seeing that some states are doing a lot of testing and producing accurate records while others are not.

---

Many of these countries have had long histories and plenty of experience with dangerous epidemics, there is an infrastructure in place to monitor outbreaks. As well those African cities have tight-knit communities and families, with national heath programs implemented by well-funded local NGOs, and active local media. In any case, the delta in the death rate between a country like Morocco and its neighbor Spain across the Gibraltar Strait is of the order of 100 to 1, far too wide to be bridge by a difference in body count methodologies.


I think a lot of the deaths that took place in the industrialized world, in hot spots like Stockholm, Montreal or NYC took out older people in retirement homes who had no children or close family members to follow up on them and who were left in a weakened physical and mental state. Even in the best of times, the nursing home environment is a precarious environment, this was a kind of shock that required a very strong and well-planned response, and that wasn't the case in most of these places.

Big C said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

---

Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

---

I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

---

The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

---

Watch the South Park SARS episode and learn something

Big C said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

---

While there is no data yet to strongly support the idea that people who have recovered from COVID-19 will have some immunity, if they DIDN'T it would fly in the face of everything we know about human viruses like this.

Isn't this basically how vaccines work?

---

It would certainly be the expectation but to date we know antibodies are produced, but that is meaningless unless you know whether the antibodies are neutralizing- that is they repel infection and for how long- the virus has been only around for 6 months, so it is difficult to answer whether you are immune without human trials- how well and how long are you protected and are there mitigating factors.

Vaccine development is different-.more bioengineering- understanding the mechanism of attack at the cell level and building biochemical fortifications to protect cells.

bearister said:

---

New York is making the U.S.' coronavirus trends look better than they are - Axios


https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-new-cases-second-wave-new-york-b6eda2dc-ef39-4b61-9385-d02a2fd3c494.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

The US death figure is an aggregate of big cities and the epidemic has to cycle through them. It's already been through most coastal cities and what's left to grow is a smaller population located in less vulnerable terrain, as opposed to cities with dense streets and crowded public transits.

As well, the number of cases is going to climb up due to more testing being done and a larger proportion of people being detected vs in the earlier stages when testing was being scaled up. If you look at the new deaths curve, the decline is much more clearly visible, we're already well past the aggregate national peak.

https://covidly.com/graph?country=United%20States#new

^ If you compare the new cases vs the new deaths on this curve, you see that the deaths curve tapers a lot more dramatically.

Big C said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

There is no data that there is human immunity from contacting COVID let alone other corona viruses; nor is there any data as to how long immunity lasts. So far all the experimental data is from monkeys which is positive.

If you assume an Ro of 3, approx 67% of the population would need to be immune mas o
menos to stop the spread. The idea that there is currently anywhere near this number immune anywhere is transparent nonsense.

---

While there is no data yet to strongly support the idea that people who have recovered from COVID-19 will have some immunity, if they DIDN'T it would fly in the face of everything we know about human viruses like this.

Isn't this basically how vaccines work?

---

There are at least five strains of the virus going around, and the virus does mutate, even more so because of confinement, which extends the span of the epidemic and its scope to mutate. Different regions have been infected with different virus strains.



https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-coronavirus-genome-is-like-a-shipping-label-that-lets-epidemiologists


The good news is that there has been no reinfection from different strains observed nearly six months into the pandemic, that is, there is no rebound in countries already hit with one strain by another, which indicates a level of immunity against other strains among the infected.

This in turn butresses Dr Raoult's theory of herd immunity already in place prior to SARS-CoV2 aka Covid19 in many parts of the world from previous exposure to corona class viruses, which are part of the yearly flu mix. They are a bit like defenses in football, they only get special names like SARS, Covid19, Steel Curtain or Hit Squad when they're exceptionally strong editions...

What is different about this virus is that most people that get it don't infect anyone. There is a Ro of nominally 3 which typically means if there were 7 people who contacted the virus you would expect 21 people infected. But when the data is examined for these 21 the distribution is skewed and it is typically 2-4 people that infect 21 and five who do not infect anyone. The reasons are not clear but obviously of critical interest.

Cal88 said:

---

bearister said:

---

New York is making the U.S.' coronavirus trends look better than they are - Axios


https://www.axios.com/us-coronavirus-new-cases-second-wave-new-york-b6eda2dc-ef39-4b61-9385-d02a2fd3c494.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

---

The US death figure is an aggregate of big cities and the epidemic has to cycle through them. It's already been through most coastal cities and what's left to grow is a smaller population located in less vulnerable terrain, as opposed to cities with dense streets and crowded public transits.

As well, the number of cases is going to climb up due to more testing being done and a larger proportion of people being detected vs in the earlier stages when testing was being scaled up. If you look at the new deaths curve, the decline is much more clearly visible, we're already well past the aggregate national peak.

https://covidly.com/graph?country=United%20States#new

^ If you compare the new cases vs the new deaths on this curve, you see that the deaths curve tapers a lot more dramatically.

---

Couldn't this be explained by increased testing uncovering more non-fatal cases?

Anarchistbear said:

---

What is different about this virus is that most people that get it don't infect anyone. There is a Ro of nominally 3 which typically means if there were 7 people who contacted the virus you would expect 21 people infected. But when the data is examined for these 21 the distribution is skewed and it is typically 2-4 people that infect 21 and five who do not infect anyone. The reasons are not clear but obviously of critical interest.

---

Maybe the five people who don't infect anyone were sheltering in place, whereas the 2-4 who spread the virus were out and about. One difference about this virus is the way we are reacting to it by staying home, which we pretty much haven't done before, at least not to this extent.

Big C said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

What is different about this virus is that most people that get it don't infect anyone. There is a Ro of nominally 3 which typically means if there were 7 people who contacted the virus you would expect 21 people infected. But when the data is examined for these 21 the distribution is skewed and it is typically 2-4 people that infect 21 and five who do not infect anyone. The reasons are not clear but obviously of critical interest.

---

Maybe the five people who don't infect anyone were sheltering in place, whereas the 2-4 who spread the virus were out and about. One difference about this virus is the way we are reacting to it by staying home, which we pretty much haven't done before, at least not to this extent.

---

No

https://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-dont-spread-virus-all

Anarchistbear said:

---

What is different about this virus is that most people that get it don't infect anyone. There is a Ro of nominally 3 which typically means if there were 7 people who contacted the virus you would expect 21 people infected. But when the data is examined for these 21 the distribution is skewed and it is typically 2-4 people that infect 21 and five who do not infect anyone. The reasons are not clear but obviously of critical interest.

---

This touched on a key aspect that is fairly counterintuitive that some experienced epidemiologists have tried to explain. Basically, as the virus works its way through the population, going from individual to individual and through many immune systems, it tends to lose its virulence. It's a bit like when you make a photocopy of an original, then keep on making copies of the copies, your picture loses sharpness. That's one of the main supports for the argument in favor of herd immunity.

Conversely, you would want the individuals with strongest immune systems in the front lines, that's the argument for keeping schools and colleges open. What happened instead in the worst hit places like N. Italy, Paris, NYC or Montreal was that the virus first worked its way through the most vulnerable people, with the nursing homes as the beachhead.

Quote:

---

Big C:

Couldn't this be explained by increased testing uncovering more non-fatal cases?

---

Yes, that was my argument there. If you scale up the number of tests, you're going to find more cases, with a higher proportion of no-fatal cases.

Su Tando said:

---

Big C said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

---

Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

---

I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

---

The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

---

Watch the South Park SARS episode and learn something

---

Nobody respects the medical wisdom of Beavis and Butthead.

To understand why it is important to proceed with caution in developing a vaccine, it's important to understand the phenomenon of antibody- dependent enhancement, which has been observed with mosquito-borne flaviviruses such as Dengue virus, Yellow fever virus and Zika virus, with HIV, and with coronaviruses. The last bit of text was copy-pasted from the Wikipedia page on the subject since I'm on my phone and can't insert the link. Sometimes the immune response can be harmful. A vaccination program involves immunizing millions of people, most of whom will never get sick anyway, so it's important to do no harm to even a small fraction, which would end up being many people because of the large scale of the program. The payout for developing an effective vaccine is huge in many ways - profit, glory, election outcome - so the potential for conflict of interest for those developing the vaccine is considerable.

GoCal80 said:

---

most of whom will never get sick anyway

---

stumbling forward, nearly blind in the dark, wouldn't it be nice if there was any good reason to believe that's true.

but we don't

smh said:

---

GoCal80 said:

---

most of whom will never get sick anyway

---

stumbling forward, nearly blind in the dark, wouldn't it be nice if there was any good reason to believe that's true.

but we don't

---

What I should have written is "most of whom will never get seriously ill", as in life-threatening illness, which I believe is the case.

I didn't realize the U.S. death rate was 0.4%.

Coronavirus: 8 things we got wrong then but know now


https://www.mercurynews.com/coronavirus-8-things-we-got-wrong-at-first-about-the-deadly-pandemic
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/10/coronavirus-8-things-we-got-wrong-at-first-about-the-deadly-pandemic/amp/

Today several Eruorpean countries (France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands) a deal with a big Pharma company, AstraZeneca Plc, and indicated they expected to be fully vaccinated by the end of the year. Seems optimistic, but still good news. Interesting EU is not acting in unison.

GoCal80 said:

---

smh said:

---

stumbling forward, nearly blind in the dark, wouldn't it be nice if there was any good reason to believe that's true. but we don't

---

What I should have written is "most of whom will never get seriously ill", as in life-threatening illness, which I believe is the case.

---

agreed, thanks '80. oh, and according to profiles your 1st sharing's 10th anniversary was just a few weeks ago. time flies..

Quote:

---

GoCal80 In reply to Schroeder71 10:36p, 4/12/10

I think that Cal could break into the top half of the conference, not because we will be that good, but because I can't count five teams that I think are a sure thing to finish ahead of us. Hopefully we can avoid the humiliating losses that we endured last season, though. Tedford is to me a total enigma. A meteoric rise in his first years at Cal, the thrilling Aaron Rogers era, then a series of underachieving teams with some amazing talent (Lynch, Jackson, Hawkins, etc) but a lack of something - heart? coaching? chemistry?

---

thanks for the link B (steps away .. .. .. returned)

hey now, just got back from the driveway. found the same article splashed on top of the merc's sunday front page. lots of illustrations too. # who knew

wifeisafurd said:

---

> ..deal with a big Pharma company, AstraZeneca Plc, and indicated they expected to be fully vaccinated by the end of the year. Seems optimistic, but still good news. Interesting EU is not acting in unison.

---

Top of AZ's wikipedia page..

Quote:

---

AstraZeneca plc is a British-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical company with its global headquarters in Cambridge, England Its R&D is concentrated in Cambridge, Gaithersburg, Maryland, and Mlndal in Sweden. AstraZeneca has a portfolio of products for major disease areas including cancer, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, infection, neuroscience, respiratory and inflammation.. ..

---

( ignore the useless wikipedia hyperlinks )

smh said:

---

GoCal80 said:

---

smh said:

---

stumbling forward, nearly blind in the dark, wouldn't it be nice if there was any good reason to believe that's true. but we don't

---

What I should have written is "most of whom will never get seriously ill", as in life-threatening illness, which I believe is the case.

---

agreed, thanks '80. oh, and according to profiles your 1st sharing's 10th anniversary was just a few weeks ago. time flies..

Quote:

---

GoCal80 In reply to Schroeder71 10:36p, 4/12/10

I think that Cal could break into the top half of the conference, not because we will be that good, but because I can't count five teams that I think are a sure thing to finish ahead of us. Hopefully we can avoid the humiliating losses that we endured last season, though. Tedford is to me a total enigma. A meteoric rise in his first years at Cal, the thrilling Aaron Rogers era, then a series of underachieving teams with some amazing talent (Lynch, Jackson, Hawkins, etc) but a lack of something - heart? coaching? chemistry?

---

---

Whatever happened to Schroeder, I hope he is well. We've lost another solid member of the class of 71, Gary aka GldnBear71 (sp?) a few years ago...

smh said:

---

GoCal80 said:

---

smh said:

---

stumbling forward, nearly blind in the dark, wouldn't it be nice if there was any good reason to believe that's true. but we don't

---

What I should have written is "most of whom will never get seriously ill", as in life-threatening illness, which I believe is the case.

---

agreed, thanks '80. oh, and according to profiles your 1st sharing's 10th anniversary was just a few weeks ago. time flies..

Quote:

---

GoCal80 In reply to Schroeder71 10:36p, 4/12/10

I think that Cal could break into the top half of the conference, not because we will be that good, but because I can't count five teams that I think are a sure thing to finish ahead of us. Hopefully we can avoid the humiliating losses that we endured last season, though. Tedford is to me a total enigma. A meteoric rise in his first years at Cal, the thrilling Aaron Rogers era, then a series of underachieving teams with some amazing talent (Lynch, Jackson, Hawkins, etc) but a lack of something - heart? coaching? chemistry?

---

---

That's cool about my tenth anniversary. I had no idea. Thanks for pointing it out smh!

Cal88 said:

---

Whatever happened to Schroeder, I hope he is well. We've lost another solid member of the class of 71, Gary aka GldnBear71 (sp?) a few years ago...

---

good as gold, over 25K posts and not slowed a bit (as eventually happens)..
https://bearinsider.com/account/profile/742
> "retired on 08/01/2017 as a registered investment advisor"

reminded of dear departed G71.. coincidentally his beloved wife Jill was/is employed year round by the U.S. census organization. can't imagine how she's doing these days, but last heard she'd relocated back to the Fresno area?

wifeisafurd said:

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Well got into a interesting Zoom round table with some scientists from Scientists Against COVID. Will try to be as non-political as possible:


3) Upbeat about vaccines surprisingly. The US Warp Speed Initiative is working. Expectations is that there will be 3 to 5 successful vaccines in a few months. There are several candidates that now work 100% on monkeys. Two are in Phase 2 tests which will take a month and one in Phase 3, which is efficacy, and which under new guidelines is 2 to 3 months. The one pharm company that is ahead (political comment coming) probably is through its relationship with Dr. Fauci (yes, they really said that). But the NIH now is partnering with a lot of companies. Likely there will be 3 or so vaccines that will dominate the US market, due to a lot of things, some of the dealing with the nature of the the companies themselves, such as ability to ramp-up production and distribution (just because a vaccine is done with testing, doesn't mean you can get it). All are injections. They expect to vaccines to be very effective. COVID-19 is a very stable virus despite what you read in the papers, and doesn't mutate much. Also to eradicate COVID-19, you don't need 100% effectiveness, just need to immunize a sufficient portion of the population (which is another discussion). The big issue is whether the vaccines will have other immune system impacts. This panel said monkeys didn't have impacts, which is a good sign.

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I'm having a hard time getting my head around what you suggest about the speed of developing a vaccine against the SARS-CoV2 virus. Typically one would give the vaccine to a large number of people - maybe 15,000 - and a placebo to another 15,000, and would study the two populations over a span of months/years to see if there is statistically- significant reduction in incidence of disease. You can speed this up by a human challenge study, intentionally giving the study subjects the pathogen, but there are ethical problems, they'd never do that before a drug therapy was available, and they'd only do the challenge to young, healthy people, not older people who most urgently need a vaccine. I think 18 months for a vaccine is super optimistic and would be delighted to be proven wrong.

GoCal80 said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Well got into a interesting Zoom round table with some scientists from Scientists Against COVID. Will try to be as non-political as possible:


3) Upbeat about vaccines surprisingly. The US Warp Speed Initiative is working. Expectations is that there will be 3 to 5 successful vaccines in a few months. There are several candidates that now work 100% on monkeys. Two are in Phase 2 tests which will take a month and one in Phase 3, which is efficacy, and which under new guidelines is 2 to 3 months. The one pharm company that is ahead (political comment coming) probably is through its relationship with Dr. Fauci (yes, they really said that). But the NIH now is partnering with a lot of companies. Likely there will be 3 or so vaccines that will dominate the US market, due to a lot of things, some of the dealing with the nature of the the companies themselves, such as ability to ramp-up production and distribution (just because a vaccine is done with testing, doesn't mean you can get it). All are injections. They expect to vaccines to be very effective. COVID-19 is a very stable virus despite what you read in the papers, and doesn't mutate much. Also to eradicate COVID-19, you don't need 100% effectiveness, just need to immunize a sufficient portion of the population (which is another discussion). The big issue is whether the vaccines will have other immune system impacts. This panel said monkeys didn't have impacts, which is a good sign.

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I'm having a hard time getting my head around what you suggest about the speed of developing a vaccine against the SARS-CoV2 virus. Typically one would give the vaccine to a large number of people - maybe 15,000 - and a placebo to another 15,000, and would study the two populations over a span of months/years to see if there is statistically- significant reduction in incidence of disease. You can speed this up by a human challenge study, intentionally giving the study subjects the pathogen, but there are ethical problems, they'd never do that before a drug therapy was available, and they'd only do the challenge to young, healthy people, not older people who most urgently need a vaccine. I think 18 months for a vaccine is super optimistic and would be delighted to be proven wrong.

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Yeah, about three months ago, I asked (here on BI) if the 12-18 month absolute minimum lead time being floated could be shortened a little bit by throwing tons of resources at the process and maybe even cutting a few non-essential corners (like red-tape stuff). "No because of this"/"No because of that" was the universal reply. Now it's suddenly down to nine months? What corners are being cut and how "non-essential" are they?

Lucas Lee said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Su Tando said:

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Big C said:

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dimitrig said:

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Cal88 said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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6. Many folks may have immunity because they have had viruses similar to COVID-19.

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Item (6) is a key item, and perhaps the main reason the covid death toll turned out to be a lot smaller than expected. According to Dr.Didier Raoult, that percentage of people with immunity due to prior exposure to corona class of viruses is between 40% and 70% of the population.

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I wonder if this is why China and nearby countries like Vietnam fared better than most - they had already been exposed through SARS and similar diseases.

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The conventional wisdom is that SARS awakened these countries to the threat of pandemics and that they were more willing to follow strong government directives (because of SARS and also just their culture).

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Watch the South Park SARS episode and learn something

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Nobody respects the medical wisdom of Beavis and Butthead.

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Nobody respects your position on, well, anything.

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That's a heavy burden to carry through life, but I'll do my best to bear up under the load.