USC/UCLA supposedly moving to Big Ten

101,658 Views | 746 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Big Dog
maxer
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Big Dog said:

All you who (naively) think the BiG wants Cal are whack. Just sayin'.

The SoCal schools leaving should not be a surprise to anyone. Sure, the Regents could conceivably stop UCLA on principal, but they are not in a strong negotiating position. If the Regents require the BiG to take Cal with UCLA, the BiG says, no problema, we'll take Oregon instead.
This is... misinformed on many levels.

The whole of the state of Oregon is a tiny media market compared to LA, and the Bay Area for that matter.
The Regents don't care if the Big10 takes a different team -- their interest is in the system. If they let this happens it crushes Cal's sports revenue, which leaves the regents/state on the hook for the stadium debt (amongst many other problems).

There are more issues too but let's just start there.
ducky23
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Big Dog said:

All you who (naively) think the BiG wants Cal are whack. Just sayin'.

The SoCal schools leaving should not be a surprise to anyone. Sure, the Regents could conceivably stop UCLA on principal, but they are not in a strong negotiating position. If the Regents require the BiG to take Cal with UCLA, the BiG says, no problema, we'll take Oregon instead.


There is absolutely zero equivalency between Oregon and ucla as far as value to the big10
BearSD
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Athletic department staff meeting at Cal today:

HateRed
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If the BIG 10 does not take Cal and Stanford along with UCLA and USC, Cal and Stanford are pretty much dead. If the new PAC 12 commissioner did not that USC and UCLA were joining the BIG10 than we have a huge problem.
sycasey
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Big Dog said:

sycasey said:

ducky23 said:

sycasey said:

BearSD said:

maxer said:

BigDaddy said:



Pac-12 gonna be a zombie league.
"Yes let's take the smallest media markets and the most dubious academic schools!"
Yeah, you never know, but it's hard to see the Big Ten going for Tempe Community College, as the Zona fans call them.
That's not what this tweet says, it says the Big TWELVE will come for the Arizona schools and Colorado/Utah.

The unstated assumption there is that likely the Big Ten comes for the rest of the Pac.


I don't think the big 10 would mind taking furd/cal SOLELY for their academic clout.
And as Greg noted, the media market.
yeah, but I disagree with Greg. The Bay Area may have millions or residents and eyeballs, but on a per capita basis, teh region is just not that into televised college sports.
It's still going to be more valuable than other markets they could add.
eastcoastcal
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What are the other alternatives to Cal if lets say, the B10 adds 4 more teams?

Oregon
Washington
Furd
Notre Dame

that's the biggest package I could imagine that excludes Cal. That would absolutely suck.
okaydo
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calumnus
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eastcoastcal said:

What are the other alternatives to Cal if lets say, the B10 adds 4 more teams?

Oregon
Washington
Furd
Notre Dame

that's the biggest package I could imagine that excludes Cal. That would absolutely suck.


Worst case Cal would remain in the PAC which would raid the MWC for more members. Big Game would continue. The upside is Cal would finally be king of the PAC (8?).

philly1121
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BigDaddy said:



I have a pretty reliable source at USC that is telling me that this is a done deal. It will be announced in 24 hours if not sooner. The main reason: television. Pac12 deal is not going to improve significantly. But the TV deal for the B1G is said to be near a billion dollars.

Also source said Coliseum Commission is meeting on this as well and going to make a formal presentation to B1G officials about revamped Coliseum and facilities.

The Pac 12 is dead.
sycasey
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maxer said:

sycasey said:

BearSD said:

maxer said:

BigDaddy said:



Pac-12 gonna be a zombie league.
"Yes let's take the smallest media markets and the most dubious academic schools!"
Yeah, you never know, but it's hard to see the Big Ten going for Tempe Community College, as the Zona fans call them.
That's not what this tweet says, it says the Big TWELVE will come for the Arizona schools and Colorado/Utah.

The unstated assumption there is that likely the Big Ten comes for the rest of the Pac.
Ahh you're right.

I doubt the Big 10 has much use for Washington St and Oregon St but you never know I guess.
The thought is that the state governments would make a stink if Washington and Oregon left and the rival state schools got screwed as a result. So in order to get those schools they go ahead and take the rivals as well.
maxer
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philly1121 said:

BigDaddy said:



I have a pretty reliable source at USC that is telling me that this is a done deal. It will be announced in 24 hours if not sooner. The main reason: television. Pac12 deal is not going to improve significantly. But the TV deal for the B1G is said to be near a billion dollars.

Also source said Coliseum Commission is meeting on this as well and going to make a formal presentation to B1G officials about revamped Coliseum and facilities.

The Pac 12 is dead.
That's all well and good for USC but UCLA can't go unless the Regents approve it.
Strykur
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ducky23
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Thank god we have a wartime leader in knowlton to guide us thru this period of tumult.


I don't think there's any way we get to the big10 under knowlton's leadership unless a combination of the regents/ucla/furd drag us along with them
maxer
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ducky23 said:

Thank god we have a wartime leader in knowlton to guide us thru this period of tumult.


I don't think there's any way we get to the big10 under knowlton's leadership unless a combination of the regents/ucla/furd drag us along with them
This is going to happen above Knowlton's head. This is University President/Regent stuff now.
philly1121
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maxer said:

philly1121 said:

BigDaddy said:



I have a pretty reliable source at USC that is telling me that this is a done deal. It will be announced in 24 hours if not sooner. The main reason: television. Pac12 deal is not going to improve significantly. But the TV deal for the B1G is said to be near a billion dollars.

Also source said Coliseum Commission is meeting on this as well and going to make a formal presentation to B1G officials about revamped Coliseum and facilities.

The Pac 12 is dead.
That's all well and good for USC but UCLA can't go unless the Regents approve it.

Good point. As I genuinely don't know - is there something in the UC Charter or Athletic regulations that ties UC schools together, athletically? Or ties them to the Pac12 Conference?
sycasey
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ducky23 said:

I don't think there's any way we get to the big10 under knowlton's leadership unless a combination of the regents/ucla/furd drag us along with them
That's pretty much what would happen. The thing just happens, whether Knowlton does anything or not.
BearGreg
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Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago
eastcoastcal
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BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago

BG, when would a regents vote take place? If USC/UCLA are supposedly announcing today/this week.
BearGreg
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eastcoastcal said:

BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago

BG, when would a regents vote take place? If USC/UCLA are supposedly announcing today/this week.
Appears to me that they plan to announce prior to a Regents vote. Can't imagine the Regents meeting, voting, and keeping the news confidential, not to mention not having Chancellor Christ and Jim Knowlton involved prior to any vote. Simply not plausible.
philly1121
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BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago


Do we know for a fact that Regents must approve? If so, how?

Cal, within the context of football programs and in comparison to USC and UCLA, is miles behind both of these schools. There is no upward trajectory for Cal.

As to point 6, the LA media market is #2 in the country. Between LA and SF/Bay Area, there is no comparison.

If they are close to announcing, this - and I think they are, then either the Regents have already let them go (unknown), or UCLA believes that they can win in court in time for 2024 football season.
ducky23
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BearGreg said:

eastcoastcal said:

BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago

BG, when would a regents vote take place? If USC/UCLA are supposedly announcing today/this week.
Appears to me that they plan to announce prior to a Regents vote. Can't imagine the Regents meeting, voting, and keeping the news confidential, not to mention not having Chancellor Christ and Jim Knowlton involved prior to any vote. Simply not plausible.


Here's what's confusing to me

If we assume ucla requires regents approval, Wouldn't ucla get at least the regents tentative approval before announcing the move?

Let's say ucla did get regents tentative approval. Let's also assume you're right and regents stipulated any approval is contingent upon taking cal.

Wouldn't cal going to the big10 gotten leaked by now as well?
BigDaddy
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eastcoastcal said:

What are the other alternatives to Cal if lets say, the B10 adds 4 more teams?

Oregon
Washington
Furd
Notre Dame

that's the biggest package I could imagine that excludes Cal. That would absolutely suck.
North Carolina and Virginia would also be schools that are attractive to the B1G.
“My tastes are simple; I am easily satisfied with the best.” - Winston Churchill
pingpong2
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At this point we're the zach maynard to ucla's keenan allen.
MinotStateBeav
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Never thought the pac would do this, feels a bit stabby in the backy. Even if Cal gets into the have's..it feels like total crap to leave Wazzu and OSU completely f'd. Just another nail in my interest in college sports.
juarezbear
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philly1121 said:

BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago


Do we know for a fact that Regents must approve? If so, how?

Cal, within the context of football programs and in comparison to USC and UCLA, is miles behind both of these schools. There is no upward trajectory for Cal.

As to point 6, the LA media market is #2 in the country. Between LA and SF/Bay Area, there is no comparison.

If they are close to announcing, this - and I think they are, then either the Regents have already let them go (unknown), or UCLA believes that they can win in court in time for 2024 football season.
I've attached the media markets here:

https://www.lyonspr.com/latest-nielsen-dma-rankings/

Bay Area is #6 and I'd think that B10 and Fox Sports would want to include it in an expansion. Seattle is #14 and Portland is #25 although Oregon is almost like Notre Dame with a national following thanks to Nike. The B10 wisely cherry picked the #2 market that will hopefully drive the addition of the Bay Area schools along with Washington and Oregon. I wonder if Washington and Oregon would have similar problems leaving Wazzu and OSU behind or if those schools have a separate board of Regents.
Bear_Territory
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I think Cal has no choice but to follow…both financially and for the future of the program.
sycasey
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BearGreg said:

6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago
Rutgers is the big data point here. No one thinks Rutgers is really bringing eyeballs, but they are in the NYC regional market so that's what they bring. Cal and Stanford would bring the same (plus, again, USC and UCLA's donors probably want to keep playing those schools).
BearSD
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If anyone wants to hear Canzano and Wilner hold a wake for the Pac-12...

Big Dog
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eastcoastcal said:

The way I see it there are only two decent scenarios for Cal

1) We get invited to Big10 as well which is an upgrade and woohoo we make lots more money
2) We genuinely join the Ivy League at which point we've clearly given up on sports but hey at least the academic association will be great

Everything else is generally stated as being part of a Mountain West-like conference which I have no desire to watch or follow
2) Ain't happening. The Ivy League is comprised of 8 schools a bus ride apart. No way they regularly schedule west coast games. Not only costly, but takes time out of class.
Bobodeluxe
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Bay Area eyeballs don't show up for Cal or Stanford, so what is the need for local representation?
Dgoldnbaer
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The demise of the Pac 12 as we know it. Ivy West here we come.
Strykur
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Bobodeluxe said:

Bay Area eyeballs don't show up for Cal or Stanford, so what is the need for local representation?
There are more Big Ten alumni here than in Chicago.
Rushinbear
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calumnus said:

eastcoastcal said:

What are the other alternatives to Cal if lets say, the B10 adds 4 more teams?

Oregon
Washington
Furd
Notre Dame

that's the biggest package I could imagine that excludes Cal. That would absolutely suck.


Worst case Cal would remain in the PAC which would raid the MWC for more members. Big Game would continue. The upside is Cal would finally be king of the PAC (8?).


I can see this happening, although would the Big just add teams? Would NW, IU, Ill, Rut just opt out? Maybe back to the national academic model - Cal, Furd, NW, Rice, Vandy, Duke, GT, militaries? Wouldn't make a lot of money but would be interesting...and honest. Two divisions to limit travel - Cal, Furd, Rice, NW, AF, maybe Tulane in West. Something like that.
HateRed
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The only option is for Cal and Stanford to get invited to the Big 10. Otherwise, they're both dead. I would have no interest in buying football tickets if they were to join any other conference unless it's the ACC or SEC. the SEC ain't gonna happen.
Big Dog
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BearGreg said:

Several factors to ground this discussion:

1.) The Regents do have to approve this decision
2.) Cal has to create an outcome that manages the Stadium Debt and the ongoing need for revenue (both direct and the large indirect amounts) that come from Cal participating in big time college athletics
3.) If the Regents approve UCLA leaving for the B10, it is very hard to imagine it happening without Cal. If not, hard to imagine the Regents approving UCLA leaving.
4.) There is no middle ground here for Cal. A diminished P12 will starve it of the capital needed to pay off the Stadium, maintain an athletic presence beyond the sports that have evergreen funding (e.g. aquatics, rugby, crew), and fulfill Title IX
5.) The Regents will understand points 2 and 4 well and will act accordingly
6.) Perhaps more importantly, the B10, FOX, and ESPN are all about eyeballs and revenue. Why wouldn't they want the Bay Area? It's one of the six largest in the US. These are the same entities that decided to add Maryland and Rutgers to the B10 not long ago

1. I have no knowledge, so will accept as fact.

2. Maybe its time to step back from "big time" athletics (many faculty, staff, students and parents would concur). My point is that big time athletics is no longer a guarantee. Not sure the Regents care.

3. All about the Benjamins. If UCLA can double/triple (?) their budget, put some money back to teh academic side of the house, and the BiG is adamant to not take Cal, The Regents will not say no.

4. Stadium is sunk cost. The Regents/Cal will have to eat it (and perhaps charge UCLA an 'exit' fee to help offset their leaving).

5. They care about expenses, yes, but do they care about big time sports?

6. This is my biggest disagreement with you. Not sure the BA college sports viewing audience is as big as you think. And don't forget, much of the BiG is in the eastern time zone, so the west night time kickoff doesn't work for it.
 
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