hanky1;842733083 said:
It's now been a full 16 game slate since Rodgers has played well. He just doesn't look good anymore. Definitely can't say he's the top QB in the League right now. No way top 5. Probably not even top 10. Perhaps top 15. Maybe. Forget his performance 2, 3, or 4 years ago. Look at him in recent games. He's aweful. Last year the excuse was WR. This year it is Oline. Truth is he is in decline. Some guys fall off later than others in their careers. Rodgers just happened to fall off much earlier and much more rapidly than most.
It is a provocative question, but I don't believe he is in the sort of decline you suggest. Certainly there has been some degree of physical decline, but his experience should have him at or near his peak. Overall, I believe it is a combination of numerous factors, including lax fundamentals (AR has touched upon this lately, I am not going to rehash, it has already been discussed online, check the Ringer article referenced in this thread as just one example), a lesser team around him, a diminished emphasis on offensive players, and injuries.
Consider this: the top 7 players on the packers in 2016 take up 52.1% of the salary cap. In 2011, when he was great, it was 41.1%. There was more money for the team around him. He had superior skill position players back then -- the offense around him now sort of sucks. It isn't terrible, but AR is at his best when he has guys who make plays down the field, but that hasn't been the case in awhile now. Add one 40-50 yard throw per game to his numbers, things suddenly stack up much differently in terms of his stats.
The Packers' positional emphasis has also changed. In 2011, 6 of the top 9 highest paid players were on offense. The 2016 Packers have gone the other way and stocked up on defense, with 4 of their top 9 players playing on offense, with one of those -- Jordy Nelson -- still not up to the level he was when signed. Further, in 2015 the offensive line really struggled to stay healthy, which led to less time to make decisions, more hits, and likely contributing to the decline in his fundamentals.
I understand these changes may appear slight, but the NFL's parity means small losses around the edges can have large effects. There simply isn't the margin for error there was when the salary cap was spread more equally. There has been a slow change in the quality and type of personnel surrounding AR, and his results have seen a similar decline. There is more reliance on street FAs, more reliance on practice squad players, more reliance on young players period, as there is less money to go around on the Packers. These factors, along with several more speculative I am too lazy to hash out in enough detail to decide how much weight I'd assign them (ex. McCarthy's offense becoming too predictable/easy to defend, whether that offense has changed to feature short passing to the exclusion of a vertical downfield attack, stuff like that, obviously huge questions that require a great deal of research before coming to a reasoned conclusion), adequately explain the decline in performance beyond it being exclusively an atrophy in ability. I believe AR remains capable of roughly replicating his MVP performance from the past, but the surrounding conditions make that unlikely I think. I mean, just look at the talent around him. When he was the best QB on the planet, sure his receivers had big numbers. And they are solid receivers. But they aren't #1 receivers. Right now, they probably have a two and a couple 3's. Maybe Nelson will get it back, but right now, there is no GB receiver you feel uncomfortable putting on an island with an above avg CB. Neither the OL nor the RBs are going to pound the opposing front 7 into submission so as to force the safeties and LBs to respect the run. Just no playmakers the last couple years other than AR.