• So according to Cal Season Ticket " Deposits" is at a record high, which is good. No mention of what the existing renewal ratio is .would be interesting to know.

Sebastabear said:

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BearGreg said:

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By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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BearGreg said:

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By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

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All good questions but unfortunately I don't know any of these answers. For what it's worth the impression I was giving was that this was a very positive development for Cal and things were going even better than they'd hoped. I think your enthusiasm is pretty widely shared.

90% is pretty good.

Kids these days. All they think about is their uncertain futures.

Bobodeluxe said:

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Kids these days. All they think about is their uncertain futures.

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Cal kids' futures are no more uncertain than any other student body. Lots of student support at tons of other schools with far less opportunity than Cal kids have.

LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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BearGreg said:

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By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

---

If we assume 35,000 season ticket holders then 10% not renewing means down 3,500. Not sure if that is seats or accounts but it is a guess as to seats. If 200 put deposits down and Calmis estimating over 1,000 seats that means each person buys 5 seats. Given all these guesses,seats down might be be 2,500, which is an overall loss.

Does this make any sense?

oskidunker said:

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LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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BearGreg said:

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By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

---

If we assume 35,000 season ticket holders then 10% not renewing means down 3,500. Not sure if that is seats or accounts but it is a guess as to seats. If 200 put deposits down and Calmis estimating over 1,000 seats that means each person buys 5 seats. Given all these guesses,seats down might be be 2,500, which is an overall loss.

Does this make any sense?

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Does anyone know how many season ticket holders there are?

oskidunker said:

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LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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BearGreg said:

---

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By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

---

If we assume 35,000 season ticket holders then 10% not renewing means down 3,500. Not sure if that is seats or accounts but it is a guess as to seats. If 200 put deposits down and Calmis estimating over 1,000 seats that means each person buys 5 seats. Given all these guesses,seats down might be be 2,500, which is an overall loss.

Does this make any sense?

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I am more curious about the 70%.

If Cal doesnt renew 30% of season ticket holders early, previously, but is still growing attendance y/y then is it because they renew late, or turnover, or single game buying, etc?

So lets say:
1000 season tickets @ 70% early
- 700 season tickets renewed and none sold after, then
700 season tickets @ 90% early
- 630 season tickets renewed

Thats bad. That would tell me that the people who are left are diehards, right? In this extreme, 90% is pretty terrible.

BUT, we know attendance is on the way up:
1000 season tickets @ 70% early
- 700 season tickets renewed and 500 sold after then
1,300 season tickets @ 90% early
- 1,170 season tickets renewed with ? sold after

Thats a lot better, even "great." That would tell a much different story about the product being sold.

Thats why I asked more about the numbers and the phrase "last several years." I suspect that attendance will continue to grow under Wilcox, so my guess is that after-early-renewal sales are much stronger y/y than the early-renewal numbers show, and then 90% would be absurdly good.

To get a true sense, we would have to control for the upcoming even year home schedule which has great games vs. the odd year home schedule which sucks donkey balls. I imagine there's a bit of a ping pong effect year to year in addition to all of the other factors.

All this said, I think Wilcox currently has the program at a solid level and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in sales even accounting for the even-odd schedule dichotomy.

75bear said:

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To get a true sense, we would have to control for the upcoming even year home schedule which has great games vs. the odd year home schedule which sucks donkey balls. I imagine there's a bit of a ping pong effect year to year in addition to all of the other factors.

All this said, I think Wilcox currently has the program at a solid level and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in sales even accounting for the even-odd schedule dichotomy.

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There is.

Typically I control for the "seasonality" of scheduling when I look at attendance.

It also matters if your "A" OOC is a home game with Ohio State or Tennessee vs North Texas or Nevada, so that gets smoothed out.

Dykes attendance didnt strictly shrink y/y, because it would bump up every other year, but controlling for that, you get him dropping people off every year, for example.

MoragaBear said:

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The season ticket renewal rate of 90% is the highest it's been since at least the stadium remodel in 2012.

For comparison, the national season ticket renewal average is close to 80% than 90.

For obvious reasons, 100% renewals never occur because people age out or pass away, move, etc.

What will be interesting is where total season ticket sales end up before the start of the season. New season ticket holders don't really have incentive to buy season tickets this early so their buying period is much more fluid. There will also be some of the 10% who didn't renew in January who will renew later when they know their travel plans, get more excited for the team's prospects, are better able to financially pay for it, etc.

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How many of the 30% that sabasta used as an example renew late?


FWIW, I think its notable that Wilcox is growing attendance, not just for Wilcox as a program builder, but vs the national downward trend of attendance.

75bear said:

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To get a true sense, we would have to control for the upcoming even year home schedule which has great games vs. the odd year home schedule which sucks donkey balls. I imagine there's a bit of a ping pong effect year to year in addition to all of the other factors.

All this said, I think Wilcox currently has the program at a solid level and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in sales even accounting for the even-odd schedule dichotomy.

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A couple of years ago, Stanford wanted to switch odd for even, but the Golden Bear Clown Force made that idea a "surrender to the dark side" issue. Good job.

It could still be done

MoragaBear said:

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The season ticket renewal rate of 90% is the highest it's been since at least the stadium remodel in 2012.

For comparison, the national season ticket renewal average is close to 80% than 90.

For obvious reasons, 100% renewals never occur because people age out or pass away, move, etc.

What will be interesting is where total season ticket sales end up before the start of the season. New season ticket holders don't really have incentive to buy season tickets this early so their buying period is much more fluid. There will also be some of the 10% who didn't renew in January who will renew later when they know their travel plans, get more excited for the team's prospects, are better able to financially pay for it, etc.

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I thought aging out was the same as passing away...

oskidunker said:

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LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

---

By point of comparison for those interested, we have been in the high 70s on renewals at this time of the year for the last several years. Am also told we have a few hundred new accounts translating into a bit over a thousand additional seats for next year sold already. Lot of enthusiasm for the team and the schedule in 2020. Should be great.

---

What is last several years?

Attendance is growing under Wilcox, is that not reflected by early renewals?

Also how does this translate to season ticket packages, total for seasons? Are we getting better early numbers because of a shrinking to the diehard group or are later buyers growing and then renewing earlier?

I ask because I have been pretty vocal about Wilcox being the first coach since 2006 to grow attendance, but in fairness, he started from pretty damn low, like Tedford.


90% could be pretty rough, or great.

I haven't been this interested in Cal football since the mid '00s.

---

If we assume 35,000 season ticket holders then 10% not renewing means down 3,500. Not sure if that is seats or accounts but it is a guess as to seats. If 200 put deposits down and Calmis estimating over 1,000 seats that means each person buys 5 seats. Given all these guesses,seats down might be be 2,500, which is an overall loss.

Does this make any sense?

---

Season tickets reached their recent zenith at 35K-40K in the Tedford era. More recently, (based upon announced attendance at games), I would guess season ticket sales are in the 20K-25K range. There should be an uptick this season.

71Bear said:

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MoragaBear said:

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The season ticket renewal rate of 90% is the highest it's been since at least the stadium remodel in 2012.

For comparison, the national season ticket renewal average is close to 80% than 90.

For obvious reasons, 100% renewals never occur because people age out or pass away, move, etc.

What will be interesting is where total season ticket sales end up before the start of the season. New season ticket holders don't really have incentive to buy season tickets this early so their buying period is much more fluid. There will also be some of the 10% who didn't renew in January who will renew later when they know their travel plans, get more excited for the team's prospects, are better able to financially pay for it, etc.

---

I thought aging out was the same as passing away...

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as you get older sometimes the night games, the in game experience and the short notice start times could cause you to feel you are too old to jump through all the hoops, especially since every game is televised.

Not sure how many season tickets we had in 2006. But we averaged 64,318 per game at Memorial, selling out three times. Our lowest attendance that year was 55K with Minnesota coming to the season home opener a week after we got blown out by Tennessee on the road.

We also played with 106K at Tennessee and 93K at the Coliseum that year.

I think we had about 45K season tickets that year. That was the season that got our new stadium built.

Cal will just hype the renewals and never really give us a bottom line. Maybe we are not entitled to it.I non renewed after 50 years mainly because of the price in the bench backs with night games a close second. Winning never was a factor. Will buy single game to tickets to non night games.

Oski87 said:

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Not sure how many season tickets we had in 2006. But we averaged 64,318 per game at Memorial, selling out three times. Our lowest attendance that year was 55K with Minnesota coming to the season home opener a week after we got blown out by Tennessee on the road.

We also played with 106K at Tennessee and 93K at the Coliseum that year.

I think we had about 45K season tickets that year. That was the season that got our new stadium built.

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Speaking of the stadium remodel, I read that there was a phase planned that would have added bathrooms, concessions, etc. to the east side, but was later postponed indefinitely. Does anyone know whether that will ever become a reality?

LMK5 said:

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Oski87 said:

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Not sure how many season tickets we had in 2006. But we averaged 64,318 per game at Memorial, selling out three times. Our lowest attendance that year was 55K with Minnesota coming to the season home opener a week after we got blown out by Tennessee on the road.

We also played with 106K at Tennessee and 93K at the Coliseum that year.

I think we had about 45K season tickets that year. That was the season that got our new stadium built.

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Speaking of the stadium remodel, I read that there was a phase planned that would have added bathrooms, concessions, etc. to the east side, but was later postponed indefinitely. Does anyone know whether that will ever become a reality?

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Given the huge outstanding debt for phase 1 of the stadium remodel (technically phase 2 - Simpson Center was phase 1), there's no way this gets going until they sell out all of ESP. And as a reminder the approximate sales percentage for University Club, Stadium Club and Field Club were 40%, 50% and 60%, respectively. Now if JW can get us to a few Rose Bowls (and all that would mean for ticket sales) then I think you'll see us finally fixing the East Side. But barring that, I wouldn't hold my breath.

LMK5 said:

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Speaking of the stadium remodel, I read that there was a phase planned that would have added bathrooms, concessions, etc. to the east side, but was later postponed indefinitely. Does anyone know whether that will ever become a reality?

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Get used to the porta cans, because the permanent restrooms and concession stands aren't happening in our lifetimes, unless Cal gets to a few Rose Bowls and attendance at Memorial routinely reaches capacity.

Sebastabear said:

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MoragaBear said:

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Lol at this talk of "a few" Rose Bowls

I'll settle for at least one for now and we can take it from there.

---

As would I. The point I'm making is that even making a single Rose Bowl, as amazing, cathartic and mind-blowingly awesome as that would be, won't result in us selling enough ESP seats to fund Phase 3. It would literally take sustained winning on a level we haven't seen since the 1920's to create that kind of demand. And while I'd sacrifice almost anything to see that happen, I ain't holding my breath. Hence why I wouldn't go shorting any porta-potty stocks just yet.

---

I actually believe that if Cal makes a RB in the next few years there will be a significant number of Old Blues who reup for years to come if not endowments or trusts to fund season tickets.

Evidence for this goodwill is the enthusiasm of the Tedford years...as short as they were, having another regime about a decade later will demonstrate that winning is possible and will spur a level of giving we haven't seen before.

The enthusiasm at the RedBox Bowl was terrific...if the squad can build on the momentum, Cal will be known as a fan base that travels well, is gracious and passionate without pretentiousness.

91Cal said:

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Sebastabear said:

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MoragaBear said:

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Lol at this talk of "a few" Rose Bowls

I'll settle for at least one for now and we can take it from there.

---

As would I. The point I'm making is that even making a single Rose Bowl, as amazing, cathartic and mind-blowingly awesome as that would be, won't result in us selling enough ESP seats to fund Phase 3. It would literally take sustained winning on a level we haven't seen since the 1920's to create that kind of demand. And while I'd sacrifice almost anything to see that happen, I ain't holding my breath. Hence why I wouldn't go shorting any porta-potty stocks just yet.

---

I actually believe that if Cal makes a RB in the next few years there will be a significant number of Old Blues who reup for years to come if not endowments or trusts to fund season tickets.

Evidence for this goodwill is the enthusiasm of the Tedford years...as short as they were, having another regime about a decade later will demonstrate that winning is possible and will spur a level of giving we haven't seen before.

The enthusiasm at the RedBox Bowl was terrific...if the squad can build on the momentum, Cal will be known as a fan base that travels well, is gracious and passionate without pretentiousness.

---

I did hear there was a far amount of politicking over which team would get the RedBox Bowl and who would get a lesser bowl. Part of what sold it for Cal in the end was how well we travelled to Cheez-It and Ole Miss (to just take recent examples). Sometimes the fates help those who help themselves.

Sebastabear said:

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91Cal said:

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Sebastabear said:

---

MoragaBear said:

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Lol at this talk of "a few" Rose Bowls

I'll settle for at least one for now and we can take it from there.

---

As would I. The point I'm making is that even making a single Rose Bowl, as amazing, cathartic and mind-blowingly awesome as that would be, won't result in us selling enough ESP seats to fund Phase 3. It would literally take sustained winning on a level we haven't seen since the 1920's to create that kind of demand. And while I'd sacrifice almost anything to see that happen, I ain't holding my breath. Hence why I wouldn't go shorting any porta-potty stocks just yet.

---

I actually believe that if Cal makes a RB in the next few years there will be a significant number of Old Blues who reup for years to come if not endowments or trusts to fund season tickets.

Evidence for this goodwill is the enthusiasm of the Tedford years...as short as they were, having another regime about a decade later will demonstrate that winning is possible and will spur a level of giving we haven't seen before.

The enthusiasm at the RedBox Bowl was terrific...if the squad can build on the momentum, Cal will be known as a fan base that travels well, is gracious and passionate without pretentiousness.

---

I did hear there was a far amount of politicking over which team would get the RedBox Bowl and who would get a lesser bowl. Part of what sold it for Cal in the end was how well we travelled to Cheez-It and Ole Miss (to just take recent examples). Sometimes the fates help those who help themselves.

---

Even though the "Cal travels well" reputation may be true, it still makes me laugh. Perhaps I'm misremembering the history, but it seems to me that we were not known as noted travelers for the first 25-or-so years of my 41 years of fandom. In fact, it was the common wisdom for years that we couldn't sell tickets outside of California. I find this new regard for our fan base astonishing to the point of laughter. Let's keep it up and I'll laugh all the way to Pasadena and beyond. Roll On You Bears!

Fyght4Cal said:

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Sebastabear said:

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91Cal said:

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Sebastabear said:

---

MoragaBear said:

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Lol at this talk of "a few" Rose Bowls

I'll settle for at least one for now and we can take it from there.

---

As would I. The point I'm making is that even making a single Rose Bowl, as amazing, cathartic and mind-blowingly awesome as that would be, won't result in us selling enough ESP seats to fund Phase 3. It would literally take sustained winning on a level we haven't seen since the 1920's to create that kind of demand. And while I'd sacrifice almost anything to see that happen, I ain't holding my breath. Hence why I wouldn't go shorting any porta-potty stocks just yet.

---

I actually believe that if Cal makes a RB in the next few years there will be a significant number of Old Blues who reup for years to come if not endowments or trusts to fund season tickets.

Evidence for this goodwill is the enthusiasm of the Tedford years...as short as they were, having another regime about a decade later will demonstrate that winning is possible and will spur a level of giving we haven't seen before.

The enthusiasm at the RedBox Bowl was terrific...if the squad can build on the momentum, Cal will be known as a fan base that travels well, is gracious and passionate without pretentiousness.

---

I did hear there was a far amount of politicking over which team would get the RedBox Bowl and who would get a lesser bowl. Part of what sold it for Cal in the end was how well we travelled to Cheez-It and Ole Miss (to just take recent examples). Sometimes the fates help those who help themselves.

---

Even though the "Cal travels well" reputation may be true, it still makes me laugh. Perhaps I'm misremembering the history, but it seems to me that we were not known as noted travelers for the first 25-or-so years of my 41 years of fandom. In fact, it was the common wisdom for years that we couldn't sell tickets outside of California. I find this new regard for our fan base astonishing to the point of laughter. Let's keep it up and I'll laugh all the way to Pasadena and beyond. Roll On You Bears!

---

We've done a real good job traveling to our OOC opponents in recent years. Attendance at North Carolina and even BYU was very solid. And the Cheez-It, Ole Miss and Texas numbers were spectacular. RedBox was also spectacular but that wasn't really "traveling" for most of us. I think it's the offshoot of having a large affluent fan base with a team that has been on the cusp of being great a few times over the last 30 years but never managed to break all the way through. We're so hungry for a great season it's palpable.

Sebastabear said:

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Fyght4Cal said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

91Cal said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

MoragaBear said:

---

Lol at this talk of "a few" Rose Bowls

I'll settle for at least one for now and we can take it from there.

---

As would I. The point I'm making is that even making a single Rose Bowl, as amazing, cathartic and mind-blowingly awesome as that would be, won't result in us selling enough ESP seats to fund Phase 3. It would literally take sustained winning on a level we haven't seen since the 1920's to create that kind of demand. And while I'd sacrifice almost anything to see that happen, I ain't holding my breath. Hence why I wouldn't go shorting any porta-potty stocks just yet.

---

I actually believe that if Cal makes a RB in the next few years there will be a significant number of Old Blues who reup for years to come if not endowments or trusts to fund season tickets.

Evidence for this goodwill is the enthusiasm of the Tedford years...as short as they were, having another regime about a decade later will demonstrate that winning is possible and will spur a level of giving we haven't seen before.

The enthusiasm at the RedBox Bowl was terrific...if the squad can build on the momentum, Cal will be known as a fan base that travels well, is gracious and passionate without pretentiousness.

---

I did hear there was a far amount of politicking over which team would get the RedBox Bowl and who would get a lesser bowl. Part of what sold it for Cal in the end was how well we travelled to Cheez-It and Ole Miss (to just take recent examples). Sometimes the fates help those who help themselves.

---

Even though the "Cal travels well" reputation may be true, it still makes me laugh. Perhaps I'm misremembering the history, but it seems to me that we were not known as noted travelers for the first 25-or-so years of my 41 years of fandom. In fact, it was the common wisdom for years that we couldn't sell tickets outside of California. I find this new regard for our fan base astonishing to the point of laughter. Let's keep it up and I'll laugh all the way to Pasadena and beyond. Roll On You Bears!

---

We've done a real good job traveling to our OOC opponents in recent years. Attendance at North Carolina and even BYU was very solid. And the Cheez-It, Ole Miss and Texas numbers were spectacular. RedBox was also spectacular but that wasn't really "traveling" for most of us. I think it's the offshoot of having a large affluent fan base with a team that has been on the cusp of being great a few times over the last 30 years but never managed to break all the way through. We're so hungry for a great season it's palpable.

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I'm really hoping that not only do we sell out our 5,000 ticket allotment at ND, but that we truly make it a hot ticket on the secondary market, offering enough to persuade a significant number of ND faithful to give up their seats for the day.