SwimSwam expects Cal to repeat as NCAA champs, despite the loss of Trenton Julian, Daniel Carr, Sean Grieshop and Bryce Mefford , and the possible departure of Hugo Gonzalez. Hugo is apparently training in Spain having graduated, but he has left the door open to rejoin the team in January, like Bryce Mefford did last year.
If Hugo decides to remain in Spain, I figure the meet is a toss-up between Texas and the Bears. The Horns have returning swimmers and divers who scored 378.5 points in last year's championship meet, keeping relay points the same as in 2022. Cal, without Hugo, return 363 on the same relay assumption, but possibly can make up some of the gap in the relays where Texas must replace the contributions of Drew Kibler, Cam Auchinachie and Alvin Jiang. Cal must find relay replacements for Carr and Julian (and possibly Hugo) but they appear to have candidates available to step in. While Texas got a massive boost with the return of 5th year sprinter Dan Krueger, the departures of Kibler and Auchinachie without question weaken the Texas relays.
I also expect increased points from Gabriel Jett, and possible new points from Michigan transfer Patrick Callan, sophomore sprinter Jack Alexy and freshman Matt Chai. Luke Rodarte a 52.7 breaststroker and D3 champ may surprise as his improvement curve could jump as he moves into the Cal training group.
If Hugo Gonzalez does return, and assuming the staff can run the new combined program without major issues, the Bears should be favored to repeat.
While the 2022 recruiting class may be "light" in terms of impact swimmers (currently ranked by SwimSwam as the 15th best class), the 2023 class looks to be top 3or 4 and should help keep the Bears in the NCAA hunt for the foreseeable future.
https://swimswam.com/college-swimming-previews-1-cal-men-seeking-first-repeat-as-champions-since-2012/