My off the cuff personal opinion, FWIW...the real experts on the board will no doubt chime in with a more insightful and better thought-out analysis... :p
IMO, basically no need to panic (quite yet) lol. Recruiting successes tend to come & go in cycles & waves. Even the best programmes will eventually hit a bit of a barrier now & then, and are then seen as lamentably "underperforming" by their fan base.
LSJU was knocking on the door for quite some time as bridesmaids before Neal/Manuel/Ledecky ushered in their red hot age of utter scoring depth & domination, going on to easily top the recruting class ranks by a wide margin for 3 straight seasons.
But even the mighty Furdette Juggernaut had encountered a stumble or two - our plucky underdog Bears almost pulled off the upset @ 2019 NCAAs in spite of the Trees' uber 2018 recruiting class headlined by #1 Ruck, and I have a feeling Greg Meehan's incoming freshies may not make SwimSwam's Top 3 when their 2019 recruiting class by school rankings is finally published.
However the Furd seems to be bouncing back with a vengeance courtesy of their 2020 haul of #1 Regan Smith & #6 Lillie Nordmann, with even more top talent announcements to come down there on the Farm.
Yes Cal has been perceived as "slipping" the past few cycles, when compared to the Golden era of Bootsie/Lizzie, Missy, and then the Dream Team (Thleen/Dubs/Bug/Billy). Yet a significant number of our unheralded recruits have unassumingly shown some impressive upside development since training & racing in the blue & gold - Farida, Robin, Sarah, Ema, Madds, Ali, Alicia...to name but a few.
All too easy for us armchair observers on the outside to naturally wish for or even expect all the "big name stars" to come to Berkeley...after all, what's not to like haha.
However reckon that athletic prowess in the pool & swim stats,
on their own, don't really convey the whole picture of what truly constitutes a desirable recruit - mutual fit & a heartfelt interest in the programme & school culture, how well one meshes with the team & coaches, academics, how much the recruit buys into Teri's vision & style (which frankly may not be everyone's cuppa tea), etc...these all play an equally essential role.
Don't believe Cal was ever really on #5 Phoebe's radar, as her known official visits = Michigan, Texas, Virginia, Georgia...and Wisconsin where Bacon ended up committing to (Yuri as Head Coach may have something to do with that decision, I'd like to imagine
).
Whilst #1 Regan has been rumoured to be quite favourably disposed towards Bears and good friends with several of the team (Izzy, Isa etc), her verbal had pointedly alluded to LSJU as having always been her dream school since age 10, so who can argue with that?!
I personally believe that we'll see something special from 2020 Baby Bear #4 Stadden going forward (even greater than what she has accomplished in her young career to this point) - Isabelle's sprint strokes, which had previously appeared to be a step or two behind her middle distance strengths, has shown massive improvements as of late, esp her 100 Back
That's not to ignore or trivialise the rapid ascent of some of the fast rising programmes out East, such as the ACC - notably UVa (headlined by #1 Kate Douglass in 2019 + #2 Alex Walsh in 2020), and their arch-rival NC State (#3 Katharine Berkoff in 2019)...
Believe Bears will continue their record streak of Top 3 finishes for a while yet...fingers crossed
Although absolutely agree we can't ever afford to become too complacent and rest on past laurels. The NCAA recruiting scenery & rules have undergone some radical transformations recently, resulting in a shift in favour of several programmes who have aggressively adapted and leveraged this change in the recruiting landscape to their schools' considerable advantage...