Well, in anticipation of SwimSwam's
College Swimming Previews & Team rankings for the 2018-2019 season coming out in a day or two with an article on our likely #2 ranked Golden Bears, here are their
2018-2019 OUTLOOK for the competition. For a more in-depth analysis, please go & read up the full text in the links below.
Will add the #1 ranked Furdettes (er, SS rankings, not necessarily mine haha) to this post once the writeup is published.
Bears will more than deservedly get a separate & more detailed post here on the thread once we have the article in hand, of course
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- UPDATED with summaries on the #1 & #2 Team Rankings upon publication:
STRONG FRESHMAN CLASS KEEPS STANFORD AT #1Last year's Cardinal team was so historically dominant that it's impossible to be replicated. The departures of Manuel and Ledecky are obviously huge, but Howe and Hu were also key cogs in the machine that were relied upon heavily and seemingly delivered every time. That being said, the returnees and the incoming freshman class certainly look like a team capable of bringing Stanford a third straight national title.
Taylor Ruck has limitless potential, and looks as though she'll be able to instantly bring in 50+ individual points and be a driving force on four relays.
Ella Eastin,
Katie Drabot and
Brooke Fordecarry over from last year and will be relied upon a bit more this year with such important pieces now gone, but all three have proven they can shoulder a big load, bringing a lethal combination of talent and versatility.
It also cannot be overstated the help brought in from the likes of Tankersley, Nordmann, Fackenthal and Goeders, as twelve of their 20 finals relay positions from last year are now gone, and those four, along with Ruck, will be able to seamlessly step in and keep the team competitive across the board.
While they're now weaker in the distance freestyles and perhaps the 100 fly, they got a whole lot stronger on breaststroke, last year's weak point (if they had one), and now shape up to be the top team in the country there.
Another relay sweep is optimistic, and they probably won't be putting up record setting point totals like last year, but the Cardinal are poised for their first three-peat since 1996 (when they won five straight beginning in '92) and the first three-peat of any team since Auburn did so from 2002-04.
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NO MORE BAKER FOR #2 CALCal lost Baker and Thomas, two huge talents, but their roster is padded with so much primo talent that they will fare just fine without them. Their freshman class is a bit more modest than some of the classes we've seen in the past (Baker-Bilquist-McLaughlin?! All in one class?!) but has the potential to bite, and the depth for relays paired with the fact that at least 7-8 women are poised to score on their own means Cal should be in good standing for another 2nd place finish.
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STRONG FREE CORPS BUOYS #3 MICHIGAN WOMENMichigan appears to be a very good place heading into this season, despite the losses at the top. They're strong across the freestyle spectrum, and could even score more individual points there than they did last year.
Thanks to Tucker, breaststroke is a strength rather than the weakness that even many top-notch teams have. Their fly group should get better this year, and the other three strokes are strong enough that they don't have to have a stellar backstroke group. Add in a diver or two who can score at NCAAs, and you've got the recipe for an incredibly strong team.
We'll toss in the usual caveat about how Stanford and Cal are still juggernauts, but Michigan stands a very good chance of being at the top of the "not Stanford or Cal" sub-division.------
SOMETHING'S COOKING WITH #4 TEXAS LONGHORNSBefore we get into our outlook, it's important to note that Texas is a team that will again benefit from its diving group - the Longhorns return two NCAA scorers, including 2018 platform runner-up
Murphy Bromberg.
Adams and Pfeifer are back with potential for more than one A final appearance each, with freestylers Evans and Carrozza and butterfliers Rule and Case lurking and carrying potential for individual scoring. There isn't a significant weak point in this roster, and the stud freshman sprinters are going to elevate relays and should both have great scoring chances on their own.
Texas should give Louisville a run for their money, and with Michigan and Texas A&M suffering considerable graduation losses, the 'Horns may have enough in the tank to jump up - maybe just enough for a coveted top 3 finish.
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#5 LOUISVILLE WOMEN RETURN ALL FROM FIVE TOP SIX RELAYSWith no big losses but no freshmen who seem immediately poised to make an impact at NCAAs, there's every reason to think that the Cardinals should perform very similar to how they did last year. There doesn't immediately appear to be a ton of depth, in terms of NCAA scoring, behind last year returners, but many of them saw some big improvements last year.
They're not going to challenge Stanford, or even Cal, but they definitely have the ability to hold position and maybe jump up a spot or two if everything breaks right.
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#6 TEXAS A&M REBUILDING AFTER BIG DEPARTURESSprint free takes a huge hit due to Gastaldello's departure, and the medleys may run into trouble finding a strong enough lead-off leg. The sheer depth on this roster shows, though, as A&M will still have a fantastic IM and breaststroke group led by Pickrem and Belousova.
Rasmus and Portz will be key in keeping the free relays together, Quah and Pike could do substantial damage in butterfly, and key sophomores like Yelle and Toney will be relied on to pitch in individually. Freshmen Kopenski and Carlton might end up yielding considerable contributions, while Carlton will be a very important piece in the medley and sprint free relay re-works.
A&M will be hard-pressed to repeat in the top 3 with their relays under renovation, but there are still several high-impact individuals on this roster who have a proven record of getting the job done - this team is down, but they're not out.
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#7 IU INJECTS NEW BLOOD INTO SPRINT GROUPAll in all, the Hoosiers are realistically looking to compete for another top-10 finish at NCAA's. Based on what they lost and what they have gained, there isn't any tangible evidence that suggests they can make a large jump as a team - say top-5 or top-3 NCAA finish. As they have been for the last 3 years, Indiana will be led by the superstar King. They gained some much needed talent to fill holes in the sprint freestyle arena, but that likely won't materialize into significant NCAA points right away. IU's top 3 medley relays took a big shot with the loss of Rockett and will need an unlikely hero to step up in a big way if those relays want to stay in the top 8.
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SOARING CEILING FOR #8 TENNESSEE WOMENWhile we don't dedicate a section entirely to diving, it's worth noting that Tennessee had one-even scorer
Rachel Rubadue put up 7 points as a junior and brings in Georgia state champ
Rachel Renner.There was a lot of internal discussion within our staff regarding Tennessee's #8 ranking and for good reason. It's hard not to get excited by the ceiling of this team. Scoring last year's NCAA meet just based on season-bests (
using our Swimulator program), Tennessee finishes 6th at NCAAs, and just a half-point back of Louisville in 5th. Without two very strange relay flubs alone, Tennessee scores about 56 more points than it actually did last year. They also graduated very few point and impact scorers from last year.
On the other hand, there are plenty of teams that look great on paper, but it's hard to project a team to swim to their ceiling when they previously haven't done so at NCAAs. Outside of projecting the future (which is usually a difficult task), the biggest pluses for Tennessee are an absolutely loaded sprint group (complete with dominant relays), great IMers and flyers and all the momentum in the world. On the flip side, the issues are the very painful graduations of the team's best backstroker and breaststroker along with a freshman class that looks like great developmental talent without any surefire instant-impact additions.
All that combined makes this #8 ranking one of the higher-variance rankings of our top 10. Check back later this fall, because this is one high-talent team that could see some serious fluctuations in our running Power Rankings.
KOZELSKY, DIVERS LEAD #9 MINNESOTAThis is a thinner roster than we're used to seeing with the Gophers, but there's no doubt they have a proven star in Kozelsky and enough talent to field strong relays. Look for their medleys to make noise again this year, especially the 200 medley, which is looking for an encore after cracking into the A final in 2018.
Padington, Nack, and Avestruz hold things down in the freestyle, but it would be hugely beneficial if a newcomer can step up and become a relay asset for Minnesota. It certainly helps, though, that they return 2018 NCAA 1-meter diving champ
Sarah Bacon as well as NCAA scorers
Kristen Hayden and
Morgan Justus.
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#10 USC POWERED BY HANSSON AND BREASTSTROKELouise Hansson,
Madison Wright, and breaststrokers Scott and Aroesty are the big returners for the Trojans. This team is very strong in butterfly and breast, but isn't incredibly deep in backstroke. Caldwell helps the backstroke hole and makes the sprint free group considerably stronger.
Kirsten Vose (a 47/1:42 free split on relays, and a 59/2:07 breaststroker) and Leach are both on the roster for the upcoming season, and the Trojans will be hugely supported if both are back and near their bests.
Sullivan is the blue-chip addition of the freshman class who should be a great individual scoring option, but the Trojans may need to employ some interesting relay choices and bank on their stars delivering to stay afloat in the top ten nationally this season.
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FRESHMEN BRINGING REINFORCEMENTS FOR #11 GEORGIAIt's getting tougher and tougher for recruits to come in with times that'll score big points at NCAAs, but this freshmen class feels like it has a very high ceiling. How much they develop their first year in Athens will go a long way to determining just how much the Bulldogs are able to bounce back.
They're bringing in enough that they should not slip any more, both in terms of SEC finish (2nd behind Texas A&M) or NCAAs. If they are able to hit on all, or even most, of their cylinders, the 'Dawgs could end up as high as 7th or so at NCAAs this season, with the potential to move back up the ranks rapidly in the next few years.
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#12 VIRGINIA WOMEN NEED TO FILL SPRINT RELAY SPOTSThere's no doubt that the loss of the seniors will hurt, particularly on the sprint free relays. However, DeSorbo does have a reputation for working some sprinting magic, so there's a good chance that the Cavaliers will find some new faces to fill in those relays. A lot will depend on the freshmen, some of whom's best times come from two or three years ago.
This team looks built to contend for another ACC title, but there's some question as to whether or not it has the top end point scorers necessary for March. If the team wants to hold on to a top ten position at NCAAs, it'll also need some of the women who took a step back from ACCs to NCAAs to peak in March rather than February, something that should happen with experience.
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