Lots of interesting info from this Fed report in Q4 2021, a quarter with about 6.4% inflation but before the Fed began to take down the economy. The point here is that the negative impact of inflation was overblown by the media and was not experienced by individuals in aggregate as that much of a negative. The Fed should have begun gradual quarter point increases in the Fed Funds rate back in Q4 2021 but they did not. Now they are behind the curve and threatening major hikes despite the fact that inflation may have peaked (time will tell). The Fed also should have begun QT back in Q4 2021 but instead they continued QE all the way through Q1 2022.

Here is data from the Q4 2021 Fed survey:
- A record high of 68% said they were personally doing ok or living comfortably, financially speaking
- Adults who could afford a $400 emergency was at a record high of 68%, beating the previous high of 50% in 2013.
- 15% reported a job change in 2021, most of whom said it was an improvement

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear, I believe there will be a "V" bottom by GROWTH stocks when all is said and done given that their valuations have been slashed. But there will be a large part of the market that will underperform and face an "L" type recovery.

---

Very possibly true. DW and calbears93, if it is, my strategy works. I do not buy until either the "level" or "L" starts its climb up. Give me NVDA and AMD at 166 and 91 at some time in the future (not now as I tend not to buy in confirmed downtrends) and I am happy. Not today. And I agree with you on growth DW as the valuations are becoming more reasonable, but at the same time that will depend more on where interest rates go and how fast. Let me summarize like everyone else I try to use my limited market smarts to be like the House in Vegas....Would like to win 55%/lose 45% and life is good. Anything better of course is better.

---

I've said this a bunch of times before and I will say it again.... it depends on what equity sector you are looking at.

I'm not gonna pretend that I know what the P/S multiples are for NVDA or AMD. But I am fully aware of growth names that are already trading at 3.5 - 4.5x sales. At this point, it doesnt matter where interest rates go and how fast. There are sectors in the equity market that have ALREADY DISCOUNTED what everyone has been talking about for months. They have already been slaughtered, no matter if they had a solid Q1 and guided higher on full year revenue guidance. These will be the stocks that will eventually show relative strength well before the likes of the "talking heads" on CNBC declare that the S&P has finally bottomed.

I'm fairly data driven on specific companies.

But I "get" that conservative investors will probably want to see a reversal in trend of the major market averages before they do any buying. It's certainly a lower risk methodology that will still give you strong returns, without getting involved in a "catch a falling knife" scenario. Until we see a stock (or the market) rally on bad news, it's probably best to stay away if you are a passive index fund type investor.

On a Macro basis, if you look at the average price declines and duration of the past 19 Bear Markets going back 140 years, you'll find that the average peak-to-trough decline has been 37% with an average duration of 289 days. That would say that the current bear market would end Oct. 19th. That's why people like Michael Hartnett are saying that 3600 is the Bull case.

But again, I would continue to suggest that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market.
There will be stocks and sectors that bottom way before the S&P does.

dajo9 said:

---

Lots of interesting info from this Fed report in Q4 2021, a quarter with about 6.4% inflation but before the Fed began to take down the economy. The point here is that the negative impact of inflation was overblown by the media and was not experienced by individuals in aggregate as that much of a negative. The Fed should have begun gradual quarter point increases in the Fed Funds rate back in Q4 2021 but they did not. Now they are behind the curve and threatening major hikes despite the fact that inflation may have peaked (time will tell). The Fed also should have begun QT back in Q4 2021 but instead they continued QE all the way through Q1 2022.

Here is data from the Q4 2021 Fed survey:
- A record high of 68% said they were personally doing ok or living comfortably, financially speaking
- Adults who could afford a $400 emergency was at a record high of 68%, beating the previous high of 50% in 2013.
- 15% reported a job change in 2021, most of whom said it was an improvement

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

1.) Household surveys of wealth and confidence (for obvious reasons) are lagging indicators.

2.) It should go without saying that the Fed could not have started any kind of rate hikes in Q4 (let alone QT) unless they had already pulled the plug on their $120 Billion per month bond buying. They never seemed to have a Plan B, just in case they were wrong about inflation being transient. As a defensive measure, they could have (at the very least) started tapering their bond buying last Fall so that they could have been in the position to act more aggressively (with rate hikes) should they have underestimated inflationary pressures.

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Lots of interesting info from this Fed report in Q4 2021, a quarter with about 6.4% inflation but before the Fed began to take down the economy. The point here is that the negative impact of inflation was overblown by the media and was not experienced by individuals in aggregate as that much of a negative. The Fed should have begun gradual quarter point increases in the Fed Funds rate back in Q4 2021 but they did not. Now they are behind the curve and threatening major hikes despite the fact that inflation may have peaked (time will tell). The Fed also should have begun QT back in Q4 2021 but instead they continued QE all the way through Q1 2022.

Here is data from the Q4 2021 Fed survey:
- A record high of 68% said they were personally doing ok or living comfortably, financially speaking
- Adults who could afford a $400 emergency was at a record high of 68%, beating the previous high of 50% in 2013.
- 15% reported a job change in 2021, most of whom said it was an improvement

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

1.) Household surveys of wealth and confidence (for obvious reasons) are lagging indicators.

2.) It should go without saying that the Fed could not have started any kind of rate hikes in Q4 (let alone QT) unless they had already pulled the plug on their $120 Billion per month bond buying.

---

1 - Yes, I am talking about this entirely as a concept of where we were in Q4 2021. I'm not sure why that is hard to comprehend.

2 - Yes, hard to do QT when you are doing QE. QE should have ended back in Q3 2020. QT still hasn't started. Powell is awful at his job (unless you consider that his job is to make the right people more rich).

How come the market is bullish today?

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

Dead cat bounce?

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

Automatic investment plans are extremely common and so therefore there's going to be inherit buy demand.
Buying opportunities occur after extreme down days.

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

I would say the market is going to be choppy for awhile, with some blips here and there up or down. I am not saying it will be like 2008 but it won't be like 2020. One of the biggest concern is recession and stubborn inflation. I think most assume that there will be a recession since the FED waited too long for a soft landing to be possible. The question is whether we will have stagflation. The FED committing to keep raising by 50 bps until inflation is under control gives comfort to the market that the FED is taking this inflation seriously. This is the time where the market would have went down if they said 25 bps. Everyone I talk to seems to assume a recession. It is a question of how long, and that depends on the stubbornness of inflation. Anyone else hearing anything else from fund managers or executives?

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

I would say the market is going to be choppy for awhile, with some blips here and there up or down. I am not saying it will be like 2008 but it won't be like 2020. One of the biggest concern is recession and stubborn inflation. I think most assume that there will be a recession since the FED waited too long for a soft landing to be possible. The question is whether we will have stagflation. The FED committing to keep raising by 50 bps until inflation is under control gives comfort to the market that the FED is taking this inflation seriously. This is the time where the market would have went down if they said 25 bps. Everyone I talk to seems to assume a recession. It is a question of how long, and that depends on the stubbornness of inflation. Anyone else hearing anything else from fund managers or executives?

---

I haven't heard anything to the contrary. The other thing I would note is that the sickness is in the mail but it's not really here yet.

What I mean by that is we are just starting to see businesses adjust their operating plans to account for the expected fallout. Venture-backed companies are slowing growth and starting to lay people off on the expectation that future funds will be more difficult to raise. I've seen countless outreach in the last week about how to manage through this sort of situation and to make it short and sweet - people are going to reduce burn by reducing opex.

So what this means for individuals is two things. First - expect a less frothy environment for capital raising for startups and growth companies. Even though there have been record amounts of capital raised in the last year or two, VCs have deployed a lot of it and are worried about running out of cash before they can raise a new fund. For example, one prominent fund announced a new $10B+ fund in March which is already 2/3 deployed. Companies that are burning cash are going to either put themselves at risk or change their plan to allow them to be profitable before they run out of cash. This will have an impact on the broader economy. Second - if you are at one such company or at a company who relies on those companies as customers, you may now have some career risk that you didn't just a few months ago. This may cause you to want to become more conservative in your asset allocation. Think about how closely your wages correlate with the investments you are making and whether that's a good thing for your personal financial situation.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

I would say the market is going to be choppy for awhile, with some blips here and there up or down. I am not saying it will be like 2008 but it won't be like 2020. One of the biggest concern is recession and stubborn inflation. I think most assume that there will be a recession since the FED waited too long for a soft landing to be possible. The question is whether we will have stagflation. The FED committing to keep raising by 50 bps until inflation is under control gives comfort to the market that the FED is taking this inflation seriously. This is the time where the market would have went down if they said 25 bps. Everyone I talk to seems to assume a recession. It is a question of how long, and that depends on the stubbornness of inflation. Anyone else hearing anything else from fund managers or executives?

---

I haven't heard anything to the contrary. The other thing I would note is that the sickness is in the mail but it's not really here yet.

What I mean by that is we are just starting to see businesses adjust their operating plans to account for the expected fallout. Venture-backed companies are slowing growth and starting to lay people off on the expectation that future funds will be more difficult to raise. I've seen countless outreach in the last week about how to manage through this sort of situation and to make it short and sweet - people are going to reduce burn by reducing opex.

So what this means for individuals is two things. First - expect a less frothy environment for capital raising for startups and growth companies. Even though there have been record amounts of capital raised in the last year or two, VCs have deployed a lot of it and are worried about running out of cash before they can raise a new fund. For example, one prominent fund announced a new $10B+ fund in March which is already 2/3 deployed. Companies that are burning cash are going to either put themselves at risk or change their plan to allow them to be profitable before they run out of cash. This will have an impact on the broader economy. Second - if you are at one such company or at a company who relies on those companies as customers, you may now have some career risk that you didn't just a few months ago. This may cause you to want to become more conservative in your asset allocation. Think about how closely your wages correlate with the investments you are making and whether that's a good thing for your personal financial situation.

---

That's great summary.

Stocks look to have their first positive week in months amidst more dovish comments from the Fed, including Bostic and Bullard talking about pauses and eventual rate cuts.

Bullard suggesting rate cuts in 2023/24 and now Bostic talking about a pause. lol https://t.co/4Cd2uohMYB

— G.A.M.M.A (@jaygatzbee1) May 23, 2022

I tend to think of the stock market as excitable kids while the Treasury market tells you what is going on with the economy. 10 year yields went down this week (prices up) despite the move up in stocks. That tells me there is still a move to safety by the adults and this is most likely a bear rally. Plus, even if the stock market is happy that the Fed is showing willingness to be flexible in the face of a potential economic downturn, the Treasury market knows QT is still in view. That would be bearish for stocks and bullish for Treasuries (flight to safety) if it ever happens.

I'm pretty much at my normal allocation between stocks and Treasuries. I really only care about the timing of the bottom because if I can, I'll supercharge my portfolio by selling the Treasuries and buying stocks at the approximate bottom. If I miss, not a big deal. I did this in 2020 by following the Fed and made a killing (posted on it in real time here at BI). I also did it in 2009 (with very small dollars) by looking at market sentiment - which completely synched up with Fed activity, though I didn't realize it at the time.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

I would say the market is going to be choppy for awhile, with some blips here and there up or down. I am not saying it will be like 2008 but it won't be like 2020. One of the biggest concern is recession and stubborn inflation. I think most assume that there will be a recession since the FED waited too long for a soft landing to be possible. The question is whether we will have stagflation. The FED committing to keep raising by 50 bps until inflation is under control gives comfort to the market that the FED is taking this inflation seriously. This is the time where the market would have went down if they said 25 bps. Everyone I talk to seems to assume a recession. It is a question of how long, and that depends on the stubbornness of inflation. Anyone else hearing anything else from fund managers or executives?

---

I haven't heard anything to the contrary. The other thing I would note is that the sickness is in the mail but it's not really here yet.

What I mean by that is we are just starting to see businesses adjust their operating plans to account for the expected fallout. Venture-backed companies are slowing growth and starting to lay people off on the expectation that future funds will be more difficult to raise. I've seen countless outreach in the last week about how to manage through this sort of situation and to make it short and sweet - people are going to reduce burn by reducing opex.

So what this means for individuals is two things. First - expect a less frothy environment for capital raising for startups and growth companies. Even though there have been record amounts of capital raised in the last year or two, VCs have deployed a lot of it and are worried about running out of cash before they can raise a new fund. For example, one prominent fund announced a new $10B+ fund in March which is already 2/3 deployed. Companies that are burning cash are going to either put themselves at risk or change their plan to allow them to be profitable before they run out of cash. This will have an impact on the broader economy. Second - if you are at one such company or at a company who relies on those companies as customers, you may now have some career risk that you didn't just a few months ago. This may cause you to want to become more conservative in your asset allocation. Think about how closely your wages correlate with the investments you are making and whether that's a good thing for your personal financial situation.

---

By the way, I had drinks with a friend who focused on compounders and industrials. He mentioned that M&A is slowing down, partly because sellers have not readjusted to the new reality and the buyers are not willing other than for the most top assets. I also heard that revenue growth guidance has been lower and companies are looking to maintain operating margin growth through cost measures, including discrete restructurings (workforce reduction). Funny thing is that the workforce is still in a flux with a lot of attrition. Gen Z and the great resignation may be in for a shock. So what you are describing may be going beyond tech as well. Seems recession is a strong likelihood.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

How come the market is bullish today?

---

I would say the market is going to be choppy for awhile, with some blips here and there up or down. I am not saying it will be like 2008 but it won't be like 2020. One of the biggest concern is recession and stubborn inflation. I think most assume that there will be a recession since the FED waited too long for a soft landing to be possible. The question is whether we will have stagflation. The FED committing to keep raising by 50 bps until inflation is under control gives comfort to the market that the FED is taking this inflation seriously. This is the time where the market would have went down if they said 25 bps. Everyone I talk to seems to assume a recession. It is a question of how long, and that depends on the stubbornness of inflation. Anyone else hearing anything else from fund managers or executives?

---

I haven't heard anything to the contrary. The other thing I would note is that the sickness is in the mail but it's not really here yet.

What I mean by that is we are just starting to see businesses adjust their operating plans to account for the expected fallout. Venture-backed companies are slowing growth and starting to lay people off on the expectation that future funds will be more difficult to raise. I've seen countless outreach in the last week about how to manage through this sort of situation and to make it short and sweet - people are going to reduce burn by reducing opex.

So what this means for individuals is two things. First - expect a less frothy environment for capital raising for startups and growth companies. Even though there have been record amounts of capital raised in the last year or two, VCs have deployed a lot of it and are worried about running out of cash before they can raise a new fund. For example, one prominent fund announced a new $10B+ fund in March which is already 2/3 deployed. Companies that are burning cash are going to either put themselves at risk or change their plan to allow them to be profitable before they run out of cash. This will have an impact on the broader economy. Second - if you are at one such company or at a company who relies on those companies as customers, you may now have some career risk that you didn't just a few months ago. This may cause you to want to become more conservative in your asset allocation. Think about how closely your wages correlate with the investments you are making and whether that's a good thing for your personal financial situation.

---

By the way, I had drinks with a friend who focused on compounders and industrials. He mentioned that M&A is slowing down, partly because sellers have not readjusted to the new reality and the buyers are not willing other than for the most top assets. I also heard that revenue growth guidance has been lower and companies are looking to maintain operating margin growth through cost measures, including discrete restructurings (workforce reduction). Funny thing is that the workforce is still in a flux with a lot of attrition. Gen Z and the great resignation may be in for a shock. So what you are describing may be going beyond tech as well. Seems recession is a strong likelihood.

---

We will see large reduction in home sales volume for the same reason. Buyers quickly adjust but sellers need time to accept that their assets are worth less.

Nothing to see here.

Just another MASSIVE DECLINE across the board in equities as trader's get out before tomorrow's MAY CPI report.

Dow off 639 points.
S&P off 98 points.
Naz off 332 points.

Consensus is for an 8.2% annual rate.

MAY CPI comes in at a whopping 8.6% shocking the markets.

Dow Jones - 755 points.

DiabloWags said:

---

MAY CPI comes in at a whopping 8.6% shocking the markets.

Dow Jones - 755 points.

---

Hey, good news for all my covered calls.

This proposal by SEC Chief Gary Gensler on Wednesday would be the end of Robinhood's business model.
Payment for Order Flow.
(PFOF).

U.S. SEC chief Gary Gensler unveils plan to overhaul Wall Street stock trading (cnbc.com)

DiabloWags said:

---

This proposal by SEC Chief Gary Gensler on Wednesday would be the end of Robinhood's business model.
Payment for Order Flow.
(PFOF).

U.S. SEC chief Gary Gensler unveils plan to overhaul Wall Street stock trading (cnbc.com)

---

My daughter's boyfriend is pretty high up in a non technical, non financial part of Robinhood. I've had some talks with him and he hasn't come across as terribly worried. I'll have to talk with him again. He may be too close to be objective.

Nothing to see here.
Dow Jones down 1000 points and the S&P collapsing 165 (4.25%) on top of last Friday's rout.

Yield on the 10 year exploding by 6.6% to 3.36%
Highest yield since 2011.

Market participants clearly afraid of a 75 basis point rate increase come Wednesday.
They havent hiked rates that hard at a single meeting since1994.

The stock market performance is a just a distraction from J6.

Biden once bragged about the stock market 'hitting record, after record after record on my watch.' How about now?"

Dow Jones is down 500 points below level when Biden entered office.

DiabloWags said:

---

Nothing to see here.
Dow Jones down 1000 points and the S&P collapsing 165 (4.25%) on top of last Friday's rout.

Yield on the 10 year exploding by 6.6% to 3.36%
Highest yield since 2011.

Market participants clearly afraid of a 75 basis point rate increase come Wednesday.
They havent hiked rates that hard at a single meeting since1994.

---

Yes, as bad a day as the 10 year had the 2 year had an even worse day and they are only 3 basis points away from inversion.

Cap rates in almost all commercial markets have risen materially. Equity markets are down. Lot of asset values are down. I'm not sure where prospective residential buyers were keeping the next eggs, but I can see overheated housing prices tanking significantly and quickly. With net worths tumbling, coupled with an inflation reactive FED, I'm seeing a stagflation coming, without even having to go to Davos to hear all the important people say that.

dajo9 said:

---

Yes, as bad a day as the 10 year had the 2 year had an even worse day and they are only 3 basis points away from inversion.

---

If I'm not mistaken, we havent seen the 2 year yield this high since 2008.
Definitely a lot more market participants expecting a 75 basis rate hike come Wednesday after May's CPI #.

Triple Witch this Friday with SPX rebalancing too.
Should be fun!

Ed Hyman forecasting 1.4% GDP for 2022 and no Recession.
4.0% CPI for 2023.

On the Bull Side you have JP Morgan's quant Marko Kolanovic.
On the Bear Side you have Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.

Looking at the SPY chart there is some support coming in from the March 4th and 5th lows of 2021 at
371.88 and 372.65 as well as the January 29th low at 368.29

DiabloWags said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

A lot of companies that have the same financial profile as SIDUS are going to go out of business. Looks like SIDUS has 1 year + of cash on the balance sheet and needs to raise money to continue as a going concern. If they are able to save the company and turn it into a real business, you will make a strong return on your investment.

---

Great minds think alike!
That was the very first thing that I went to check.
Basically no more than 1 year of cash on the balance sheet given the current quarterly losses.
If they truly have some IP, they might get bought out by someone like L-3 Harris or Lockheed Martin.

---

Sidus just got a big subcontract as part of a huge NASA contract. Stock jumped from $1.46 to $4.80 PPS today. Something was brewing.

oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

A lot of companies that have the same financial profile as SIDUS are going to go out of business. Looks like SIDUS has 1 year + of cash on the balance sheet and needs to raise money to continue as a going concern. If they are able to save the company and turn it into a real business, you will make a strong return on your investment.

---

Great minds think alike!
That was the very first thing that I went to check.
Basically no more than 1 year of cash on the balance sheet given the current quarterly losses.
If they truly have some IP, they might get bought out by someone like L-3 Harris or Lockheed Martin.

---

Sidus just got a big subcontract as part of a huge NASA contract. Stock jumped from $1.46 to $4.80 PPS today. Something was brewing.

---

$9. Crazy.

oski003 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

A lot of companies that have the same financial profile as SIDUS are going to go out of business. Looks like SIDUS has 1 year + of cash on the balance sheet and needs to raise money to continue as a going concern. If they are able to save the company and turn it into a real business, you will make a strong return on your investment.

---

Great minds think alike!
That was the very first thing that I went to check.
Basically no more than 1 year of cash on the balance sheet given the current quarterly losses.
If they truly have some IP, they might get bought out by someone like L-3 Harris or Lockheed Martin.

---

Sidus just got a big subcontract as part of a huge NASA contract. Stock jumped from $1.46 to $4.80 PPS today. Something was brewing.

---

$9. Crazy.

---

Congrats! Sounds like the gamble paid off (assuming you are taking some winnings off the table).

When I was in law school I bought into a stock shortly after IPO at $7 per share. I knew the space pretty well, had evaluated the technology and believed in it. A few months later there was a rumor that a competitor would be buying the company and it spiked to $35. I didn't believe the rumor so I liquidated my entire position at the very peak. It soon dropped back to $7 so I bought some more at the trough. It doubled again about a month later and I got out again never to return. It ended up going to zero and exited in a liquidation sale for ~$10M. In retrospect it was quite a gamble (it was the only stock I invested in and was, for a poor student like me, a large amount of money). The gains I made from the stock paid most of my law school tuition so the gamble paid off.

Found this interesting, mostly because I'm cash-heavy lol.

Quote:

---

What's Hurting Millionaires The Most? Not Just S&P 500

It's tempting to blame the plunging stock market and S&P 500 for millionaires' financial pain this year. But that's only part of the story.

Yes, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is down 15.6% over the past 12 months. Millionaires put 29% of their portfolio in stocks. That, though, is not the hardest hit portion of most millionaires' portfolios on a percentage decline basis. The 15% of their portfolios in real estate is down even more, 17.2%, in that time.
Perhaps more noteworthy, though, is that the part of millionaires' portfolios designed to buffer them from bear markets isn't working. Millionaires put 18% of their portfolios in bonds. And yet, the aggregate bond market is down more than 14% in a year's time. That's a rare implosion for the bond market many wealthy people don't expect.

That means cash is the only relative safe spot, for now, for millionaires. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) is only down 1.3% over the past 12 months. That makes it the rare safe haven.
"However, yet to be seen is whether market corrections and geopolitical crises will push HNWIs to restructure their portfolios over time. So, again, let's keep our eyes on the markets," said the Capgemini report.

One thing's for sure now, though. Some millionaires probably wished they put more than 24% of their portfolio in cash. It's too late for that now.

---

It doesnt take a rocket-scientist to figure out that CASH has been the only safe place.
That article is literally meaningless.

And the typical "Balanced" 60/40 portfolio that most financial advisors have their clients in (not reserved for Millionaires) has been a double-whammy "hit" for anyone that has been paying attention. The yield on the 10 year has essentially doubled YTD.

Triple Witch Tomorrow and SPX Rebalancing

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Found this interesting, mostly because I'm cash-heavy lol.

Quote:

---

What's Hurting Millionaires The Most? Not Just S&P 500

It's tempting to blame the plunging stock market and S&P 500 for millionaires' financial pain this year. But that's only part of the story.

Yes, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is down 15.6% over the past 12 months. Millionaires put 29% of their portfolio in stocks. That, though, is not the hardest hit portion of most millionaires' portfolios on a percentage decline basis. The 15% of their portfolios in real estate is down even more, 17.2%, in that time.
Perhaps more noteworthy, though, is that the part of millionaires' portfolios designed to buffer them from bear markets isn't working. Millionaires put 18% of their portfolios in bonds. And yet, the aggregate bond market is down more than 14% in a year's time. That's a rare implosion for the bond market many wealthy people don't expect.

That means cash is the only relative safe spot, for now, for millionaires. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) is only down 1.3% over the past 12 months. That makes it the rare safe haven.
"However, yet to be seen is whether market corrections and geopolitical crises will push HNWIs to restructure their portfolios over time. So, again, let's keep our eyes on the markets," said the Capgemini report.

One thing's for sure now, though. Some millionaires probably wished they put more than 24% of their portfolio in cash. It's too late for that now.

---

---

No bitcoin, huh?

Real estate down 17%? Must be commercial real estate. My real estate has been killing it.

dajo9 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Found this interesting, mostly because I'm cash-heavy lol.

Quote:

---

What's Hurting Millionaires The Most? Not Just S&P 500

It's tempting to blame the plunging stock market and S&P 500 for millionaires' financial pain this year. But that's only part of the story.

Yes, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is down 15.6% over the past 12 months. Millionaires put 29% of their portfolio in stocks. That, though, is not the hardest hit portion of most millionaires' portfolios on a percentage decline basis. The 15% of their portfolios in real estate is down even more, 17.2%, in that time.
Perhaps more noteworthy, though, is that the part of millionaires' portfolios designed to buffer them from bear markets isn't working. Millionaires put 18% of their portfolios in bonds. And yet, the aggregate bond market is down more than 14% in a year's time. That's a rare implosion for the bond market many wealthy people don't expect.

That means cash is the only relative safe spot, for now, for millionaires. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) is only down 1.3% over the past 12 months. That makes it the rare safe haven.
"However, yet to be seen is whether market corrections and geopolitical crises will push HNWIs to restructure their portfolios over time. So, again, let's keep our eyes on the markets," said the Capgemini report.

One thing's for sure now, though. Some millionaires probably wished they put more than 24% of their portfolio in cash. It's too late for that now.

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Real estate down 17%? Must be commercial real estate. My real estate has been killing it.

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Yeah I think that is just talking about REITs and ignores residential real estate entirely.

Regardless of what Diablo says, I'm going to take credit for being a rocket scientist. I've been wrong until I was right, not because I'm a good decision maker though.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Found this interesting, mostly because I'm cash-heavy lol.

Quote:

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What's Hurting Millionaires The Most? Not Just S&P 500

It's tempting to blame the plunging stock market and S&P 500 for millionaires' financial pain this year. But that's only part of the story.

Yes, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is down 15.6% over the past 12 months. Millionaires put 29% of their portfolio in stocks. That, though, is not the hardest hit portion of most millionaires' portfolios on a percentage decline basis. The 15% of their portfolios in real estate is down even more, 17.2%, in that time.
Perhaps more noteworthy, though, is that the part of millionaires' portfolios designed to buffer them from bear markets isn't working. Millionaires put 18% of their portfolios in bonds. And yet, the aggregate bond market is down more than 14% in a year's time. That's a rare implosion for the bond market many wealthy people don't expect.

That means cash is the only relative safe spot, for now, for millionaires. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) is only down 1.3% over the past 12 months. That makes it the rare safe haven.
"However, yet to be seen is whether market corrections and geopolitical crises will push HNWIs to restructure their portfolios over time. So, again, let's keep our eyes on the markets," said the Capgemini report.

One thing's for sure now, though. Some millionaires probably wished they put more than 24% of their portfolio in cash. It's too late for that now.

---

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Real estate down 17%? Must be commercial real estate. My real estate has been killing it.

---

Yeah I think that is just talking about REITs and ignores residential real estate entirely.

Regardless of what Diablo says, I'm going to take credit for being a rocket scientist. I've been wrong until I was right, not because I'm a good decision maker though.

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My favorite part of this market is this Twitter feed

Looks like it’s time for Plan C pic.twitter.com/LGKfUKHCOs

— Crypto Bros Taking Ls (@CoinersTakingLs) June 14, 2022

A poster has made previous comments that the S&P could go down 50% and it would be no "biggie".
Just the other day, they posted that the S&P was simply back to March 2021 levels. No biggie.
But that's a terribly simplistic view of the equity market.

What he doesnt seem to have a clue about is that nearly $900 Billion came into exchange traded and long-only funds in 2021. As a result, the current decline will be having a generational impact.