The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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In reply to Big C • 4:12p, 2/26/22
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!

Yup, it was bulls*** when the USA went into Iraq and just as bulls*** now. Worse even, because the US had no intention of making any part of Iraq permanent American territory.
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In reply to dajo9 • 4:18p, 2/26/22
dajo9 said:
concordtom said:
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!
USA went after Iraq, but only after Saddam Hussein went into Quwait.
USA went into Iraq again, but only after we invented false evidence about Weapons of Mass Destruction.
USA went into Afgahnistan, but only after we suspected OBL was hiding there.

Russia went into Ukraine, but only because they feared NATO was getting too close to their borders.

It's all defensible.


Our 2nd invasion of Iraq is not defensible

I believe "It's all defensible" was written with irony.
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to Big C • 4:29p, 2/26/22
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!


The ratings for these things mostly suck- Syria, Yemen,, Gaza, forget about it, local audience only. Guys with funny hats and robes don't sell. This one, however, looks to be the best since shock and awe Iraq 2, which had it all.
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5:00p, 2/26/22
Could Ukraine be Putin's Afghanistan?


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/24/could-ukraine-be-putins-afghanistan/
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5:08p, 2/26/22
Why is it difficult to assassinate Vladimir Putin? - Quora


https://www.quora.com/Why-is-it-difficult-to-assassinate-Vladimir-Putin
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5:16p, 2/26/22
Why is Vladimir Putin attacking Ukraine? He told us. - Vox


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/23/22945781/russia-ukraine-putin-speech-transcript-february-22
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7:55p, 2/26/22
Kyiv comes under huge bombardment leaving a pulsing glow over the sky



https://mol.im/a/10555871
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7:57p, 2/26/22
Why Putin's '15BILLION-a-day' invasion ISN'T going to plan



https://mol.im/a/10554269
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8:26p, 2/26/22
Russia is a kleptocracy with an economy less than half the size of California despite having almost 4x as many people. Their stock market is down 1/3 in the last few weeks. People have long overestimated Russia's largesse - they do not have infinite resources and despite Putin's aims, they are a backwater of a country with mostly abject poverty outside Moscow and a few other cities.

Putin's been losing popularity for years and this may turn out to be the straw that broke the camel's back for him. Despite all the claims of his tactical genius, this doesn't seem like a bright move. The fact that Trump was singing his praises should give him pause lol although to be fair Trump would be licking his boots regardless of his actions.

It will be interesting to see how China plays the situation.
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dimitrig
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8:28p, 2/26/22

This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.



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In reply to dajo9 • 8:29p, 2/26/22
dajo9 said:
concordtom said:
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!
USA went after Iraq, but only after Saddam Hussein went into Quwait.
USA went into Iraq again, but only after we invented false evidence about Weapons of Mass Destruction.
USA went into Afgahnistan, but only after we suspected OBL was hiding there.

Russia went into Ukraine, but only because they feared NATO was getting too close to their borders.

It's all defensible.


Our 2nd invasion of Iraq is not defensible
I was being facetious to start a debate about it. :-)
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In reply to AunBear89 • 8:40p, 2/26/22
AunBear89 said:
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
Pretty big news now breaking . . .

The White House and the EU agree to expel selected Russian Banks from SWIFT.
This is highly significant!
Putin just gave a statement in response.

"That does it, Europe.
I demand that you let me take Ukraine,
that you MUST buy my oil,
and that you send your payment to my bank via SWIFT!

Otherwise, I will nuke your cities."


Please explain why you think this is relevant, or funny, or whatever reason you posted it. Your comments in this conversation lately really contribute nothing. As people are being killed in an invasion, you're trying to crack witty jokes? You're on a par with BearFarce - tons of posts but zero contributions to the discourse.
Fair question.

I was trying to understand why Putin invaded.

Above, you saw that I had answered my own questions about how much NG exports from Russia to Europe, and in reading that I realized just how reliant Russia is on that. Now, that could all end, which would put Russia in a horrible situation.

My post immediately above was essentially a mock of Putin. What an idiot!
He may get Ukraine, but it comes at massive cost, and I don't think the west will ever deal with him the same. He's driving his country (and the world) back into a very dark place.

Ukraine's border will someday be restored.
Putin is going to die. What is he doing? Establishing a hundred year leadership/succession plan?
No. He's blowing it!
Obviously, we don't know what's in his head.

I fully support the move to shut Russia out of SWIFT!

.... I was reading about how rest of world could meet Europe's needs for natural gas. Could be good business for USA, and for renewables. But it's a tough task ahead.
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In reply to Big C • 8:51p, 2/26/22
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!
Yes, it's very shocking.
I think I threw some of you off earlier.
This is a complete disaster, horrible, sad.
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In reply to going4roses • 8:54p, 2/26/22
going4roses said:
I look forward to the post-mortem on this episode.
What WAS he thinking?

I don't think he can ever be accepted again - not that he was, but the west has to now continue to shut him out of everything, until he dies. Then we might restart.
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In reply to dimitrig • 8:55p, 2/26/22
dimitrig said:

This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.





It is ironic that is an attempt to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO Putin will end up fighting NATO.

I do understand his position which is that it is better to fight now than later after the ink is dry. It makes a lot of strategic sense. However, I think he really miscalculated how much tolerance the West has for his bull*****

China is right is that he was backed into a corner but he really made a mistake here under pressure.

If he wants to use his nuclear arsenal he will be making an even bigger mistake and that is something I wish Biden would push more on publicly.

Putin wants to threaten nuclear war?

US response should be "Don't even think about it, ****head."

I realize that we have a lot more to lose in that exchange but at some point we need to point out that every loser with a nuke can't be dictating terms to us.

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In reply to Anarchistbear • 9:02p, 2/26/22
Anarchistbear said:
Big C said:

You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!


The ratings for these things mostly suck- Syria, Yemen,, Gaza, forget about it, local audience only. Guys with funny hats and robes don't sell. This one, however, looks to be the best since shock and awe Iraq 2, which had it all.
Good point.
Perhaps the reason there is so much attention (and opposition) is because Putin gathered 150,000 soldiers all around Ukraine, which did NOTHING in preparation.

We all go a good pregame show, like, "hey, watch this.... these Ukrainians are about to be taken over by a massive army." And now we are in the midst of it.

****ing crazy!
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In reply to bearister • 9:04p, 2/26/22
bearister said:
Why is it difficult to assassinate Vladimir Putin? - Quora


https://www.quora.com/Why-is-it-difficult-to-assassinate-Vladimir-Putin
Inquiring minds want to know!

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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 9:13p, 2/26/22
Unit2Sucks said:
Russia is a kleptocracy with an economy less than half the size of California despite having almost 4x as many people. Their stock market is down 1/3 in the last few weeks. People have long overestimated Russia's largesse - they do not have infinite resources and despite Putin's aims, they are a backwater of a country with mostly abject poverty outside Moscow and a few other cities.

Putin's been losing popularity for years and this may turn out to be the straw that broke the camel's back for him. Despite all the claims of his tactical genius, this doesn't seem like a bright move. The fact that Trump was singing his praises should give him pause lol although to be fair Trump would be licking his boots regardless of his actions.

It will be interesting to see how China plays the situation.
I've written in the past about population growth models for planet earth, broken down by country.

Most of Europe, and even the USA, has a declining # of children per woman. Anything less than 2 and your population is shrinking. It's a problem if you don't have enough workers (or robots) to take the place of the aging population. Lots of economic growth comes from population growth.

USA and Europe has a lot of people migrating to it.
Nobody wants to migrate to Russia. They have a talent/brain drain.

So, Putin has some built-in structural problems, and this is going to increase that.

Best thing he can do for his country (not that I'm actually advocating this, want it) is building birthing hospitals, ban abortion and condoms.




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In reply to dimitrig • 9:22p, 2/26/22
dimitrig said:

This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.



Good post.
Again, I think short term, Russia wins. Long term, they lose big time.
What are they gaining??? A sense of security?
Come on, now. The west was never going to invade Russia or lob bombs their way.
They've just wrecked themselves. Now we aren't going to be trade partners, and they have this long term guerrilla war to deal with.

We all should be very concerned with the risk that this blows up with internet hacks.
Time to get solar panels with battery backup!
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9:22p, 2/26/22


I hope the Ukrainians send Putin's Chechen hit squad home to Mother Russia dismembered in garbage bags.
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In reply to bearister • 9:29p, 2/26/22
I don't hope for that.
Death is bad all the way around.
A lot of those guys are kids who don't know any better.
They have limited opportunities, and get told they have to run over there and kill people.
Same thing happens in this country. We have a brainwash about military service. I hate it when America wraps itself up in the flag. I'm sure there is a circumstance, but I can't imagine ever serving in the military. It's a murder for hire gig. No thanks. And yet, we praise them endlessly, give them discounts at stores, march them constantly.

Yo, man, can't we all just get along?
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In reply to concordtom • 9:49p, 2/26/22
Those are the a$$h@les that spawned the Boston Marathon bombers and brought you the Beslan school slaughter. They are not reluctant teenage conscripts. They are grown men that need to be dead. They volunteered. Vermin. If dismemberment offends you, then I will settle for zip tying them and pushing them off 2 story buildings.

Beslan school siege - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege
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In reply to concordtom • 9:52p, 2/26/22
concordtom said:
dimitrig said:

This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.



Good post.
Again, I think short term, Russia wins. Long term, they lose big time.
What are they gaining??? A sense of security?
Come on, now. The west was never going to invade Russia or lob bombs their way.
They've just wrecked themselves. Now we aren't going to be trade partners, and they have this long term guerrilla war to deal with.

We all should be very concerned with the risk that this blows up with internet hacks.
Time to get solar panels with battery backup!

Russia knows they would never be invaded but in their mind in order to achieve parity with the US (or even China and India) they need to expand. By cutting off their ability to do so it means they will be relegated to a economy on the order of Italy or Canada which isn't a horrible thing unless your name is Putin.





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In reply to dimitrig • 9:56p, 2/26/22
Putin is a feral dog.

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In reply to bearister • 10:40p, 2/26/22
bearister said:
Those are the a$$h@les that spawned the Boston Marathon bombers and brought you the Beslan school slaughter. They are not reluctant teenage conscripts. They are grown men that need to be dead. They volunteered. Vermin. If dismemberment offends you, then I will settle for zip tying them and pushing them off 2 story buildings.

Beslan school siege - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege
Okay, upon second thought, maybe it's not so bad.
I'll trade you 10 chechens for each Trumpist.
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concordtom
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In reply to dimitrig • 10:45p, 2/26/22
dimitrig said:
concordtom said:
dimitrig said:

This is rapidly devolving into a proxy war between Russia and the West. That is something Russia can't win given the relative sizes of the economies and the lack of appetite for war among the Russian populace.

It is interesting how Russia has approached this invasion completely differently from how the US has done this. The US would typically have days of cruise missile strikes and air raids in order to establish air superiority before sending a single soldier in.

Russia has either chosen not to do that or simply can't.

I do think Russia is trying to hold back some of their military strength in order to avoid civilian casualties which will harm their argument but so far nothing Russia has done should cause NATO any worry about all - at least militarily.

Russia will probably take the kid gloves off soon but then they will be sunk politically and economically. NATO is already openly admitted to sending weapons into Ukraine. They aren't even being coy about it.



Good post.
Again, I think short term, Russia wins. Long term, they lose big time.
What are they gaining??? A sense of security?
Come on, now. The west was never going to invade Russia or lob bombs their way.
They've just wrecked themselves. Now we aren't going to be trade partners, and they have this long term guerrilla war to deal with.

We all should be very concerned with the risk that this blows up with internet hacks.
Time to get solar panels with battery backup!

Russia knows they would never be invaded but in their mind in order to achieve parity with the US (or even China and India) they need to expand. By cutting off their ability to do so it means they will be relegated to a economy on the order of Italy or Canada which isn't a horrible thing unless your name is Putin.
I was with you up until "Canada".
I think Canada has gotta be on the rise. As global temps increase, people be moving up there!
Population and resource boom.

I guess you could say the exact same thing about Russia, except they don't have a political situation that is workable.
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Big C
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In reply to bearister • 10:48p, 2/26/22
bearister said:
Why is it difficult to assassinate Vladimir Putin? - Quora


https://www.quora.com/Why-is-it-difficult-to-assassinate-Vladimir-Putin

Not everybody in Russia is stupid. You'd better believe powerful Russians right now are scheming to get to a post-Putin world ASAP, because what he is doing now isn't helping anybody, or even enriching them. Let's hope they are successful before something absolutely crazy happens (not that this isn't crazy enough, but it could be a lot worse if it ever bleeds westward).

Maybe the oligarchs are starting to figure out that there is still space for them to thrive in a democracy. Hell, look at the U.S.!
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11:05p, 2/26/22
Stories of places where Russian vodka and other spirits banned from being sold in NH and Canada.

Gov. Sununu bans sale of Russian spirits at state liquor outlets, grocery stores

https://www.foxnews.com/us/russian-vodka-us-canada-bars-liquor-stores-shelves
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Sebastabear
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1:07a, 2/27/22
As we watch this unfold I think it's now pretty obvious Putin expected Ukraine to go down almost immediately and is shocked by the fact that he's got the entire citizenry mixing up Molotov cocktails in their bathtubs to toss at his soldiers. He must have legitimately believed the nonsense he's been spewing about Zelensky and his government being a bunch of Neo-Nazi drug addicts and that the average Ukrainian would be delighted to be liberated from them. By the way, how out of it do you have to be to think the neo-Nazi's have a Jewish leader? He seems to be a fan of history (or at least a distorted version of it). He may want a refresher on how the Nazis felt about the children of Abraham.

But it does once again illustrate the problem with autocrats. At some point they insulate themselves to such an extent that they start to believe their own musings are fact. If you kill or drive off everyone who ever tells you "no" then whatever you want to be "yes" becomes the truth in your own mind. Stalin absolutely couldn't imagine a world where everyone didn't love him and so he'd shoot whoever sat down first in the Politburo after his standing ovations, because the only explanation was that they were a traitor. Saddam Hussein absolutely believed his troops would engage America in the mother of all battles and I'm sure was amazed to see them trying to surrender to CNN cameras. And I'm sure Putin's mind is blown by grandmothers grabbing kalashnikovs to fight him rather than throwing flowers at the feet of their "liberators."

Why the ancient Romans had the right idea. During the Republic when the general returned from a campaign and was given a triumphal parade he'd always be accompanied by a slave whose sole job was to repeatedly whisper to him "Memento mori" - or "Remember that you will die." He needed to be kept grounded and humbled even (or maybe especially) at the moment when all of Rome was telling him he was loved.

Which in conclusion I'll say is why Cal fans are the most grounded people in the world. Whenever there's a fleeting moment of good news half our fan base (at least) is always there to whisper "Memento mori . . ."
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calbearinamaze
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5:59a, 2/27/22

When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

If you believe in forever
Then life is just a one-night stand
If there's a rock and roll heaven
Well you know they've got a hell of a band
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7:03a, 2/27/22
Vladimir Putin puts Russia's nuclear deterrence forces on high alert


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-puts-russia-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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7:22a, 2/27/22
Swift action at last brings meaningful sanctions against Putin regime


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/swift-action-at-last-brings-meaningful-sanctions-against-putin-regime?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Vladimir Putin: What's going on inside his head?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/valdimir-putin-russia-ukraine-inside-his-head?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Financier Bill Browder says Vladimir Putin is worth $200 billion


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/financier-bill-browder-says-vladimir-putin-is-worth-200-billion.html
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7:38a, 2/27/22



Fuel and logistics problems frustrate Russian advance - analysis - The Jerusalem Post


https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698800


Six Russian government websites including Kremlin website down - The Jerusalem Post


https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-698718
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blungld
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7:57a, 2/27/22
Relative in Warsaw sent this photo he took from protest at Russian embassy. I love to see this display of solidarity and support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe.

The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
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prospeCt
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8:18a, 2/27/22
~ this may have been addressed, pure imaginative speculation, what would things be like with the previous cat still at the reins, helm, currently? Kamala -Bernie2024



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