The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

861,055 Views | 9883 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by sycasey
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com



Why is it a strategic military blunder? Does Ukraine have A-10 Warthogs in the sky?

If you cant see what a "blunder" having a 45 mile long convoy in the middle of plain sight from the air is.
I cant help you. No, Ukraine doesnt have any A-10's. But they do have the 7th largest Air Force in Europe with 225 aircraft.
oski003
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oskidunker said:

DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com

Supposedly Ukraine has operational aircraft plus Poland has sen a few more. I wonder what they are waiting for?


Ukraine won't have air superiority unless NATO actually fights.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com



Why is it a strategic military blunder? Does Ukraine have A-10 Warthogs in the sky?

If you cant see what a "blunder" having a 45 mile long convoy in the middle of plain sight from the air is.
I cant help you. No, Ukraine doesnt have any A-10's. But they do have the 7th largest Air Force in Europe with 225 aircraft.



Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:




Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.

It wouldnt require "air superiority" to stop that convoy in its tracks or at least provide a significant delay.
A drone strike could even do it.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:




Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.

It wouldnt require "air superiority" to stop that convoy in its tracks or at least provide a significant delay.
A drone strike could even do it.



A successful drone strike would delay, definitely not stop, the convoy. Russia has taken out much of Ukraine's drone force with electronic devices, air defenses, and fighter jets. I think they are just trying to get the largest force there as quickly as possible before Ukraine gets more hardware. Russia is going in with overwhelming force but is heavily disadvantaged attacking such a large city with civilians taking up weapons. They may also hope to intimidate the Ukrainians.
sycasey
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:




Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.

It wouldnt require "air superiority" to stop that convoy in its tracks or at least provide a significant delay.
A drone strike could even do it.



A successful drone strike would delay, definitely not stop, the convoy. Russia has taken out much of Ukraine's drone force with electronic devices, air defenses, and fighter jets. I think they are just trying to get the largest force there as quickly as possible before Ukraine gets more hardware. Russia is going in with overwhelming force but is heavily disadvantaged attacking such a large city with civilians taking up weapons. They may also hope to intimidate the Ukrainians.
"Intimidating" the Ukrainians seems off the table at this point.
oski003
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:




Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.

It wouldnt require "air superiority" to stop that convoy in its tracks or at least provide a significant delay.
A drone strike could even do it.



A successful drone strike would delay, definitely not stop, the convoy. Russia has taken out much of Ukraine's drone force with electronic devices, air defenses, and fighter jets. I think they are just trying to get the largest force there as quickly as possible before Ukraine gets more hardware. Russia is going in with overwhelming force but is heavily disadvantaged attacking such a large city with civilians taking up weapons. They may also hope to intimidate the Ukrainians.
"Intimidating" the Ukrainians seems off the table at this point.


Yes!
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:




Again, Ukraine does not have air superiority. Russia has almost 4,000 aircraft. Russia has air superiority in parts of, but not all of Ukraine.

It wouldnt require "air superiority" to stop that convoy in its tracks or at least provide a significant delay.
A drone strike could even do it.



A successful drone strike would delay, definitely not stop, the convoy. Russia has taken out much of Ukraine's drone force with electronic devices, air defenses, and fighter jets. I think they are just trying to get the largest force there as quickly as possible before Ukraine gets more hardware. Russia is going in with overwhelming force but is heavily disadvantaged attacking such a large city with civilians taking up weapons. They may also hope to intimidate the Ukrainians.

I dont think that anyone really knows what the Ukrainian military capabilities are at this point.
Do you have a link that supports your claim that Russia has already taken out much of the Ukraine's drone force, air defenses, and fighter jets?

I would also suggest that Russia's failure to control airspace has lead to a surprising fight by the Ukraine,and could actually explain how they have been able (so far) to prevent a rout. I've read reports that the Ukraine has retained a majority of its surface-to-air missile systems and a majority of hits helicopters and airplanes.

Russia slow to win Ukraine's airspace, limiting war gains (yahoo.com)

By the way, it would be terribly naive to think that there couldnt be "non-Ukrainian" drones put into service. As it is, Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to start the process of taking control of fighter planes they expect to be donated by European countries, according to EU security chief, Hosep Borrell.

Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland to pick up donated fighter jets (yahoo.com)

I'm not going to keep going back and forth with you on this topic.
I'll just leave it at that.
concordtom
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oskidunker said:

DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com

Supposedly Ukraine has operational aircraft plus Poland has sen a few more. I wonder what they are waiting for?
Supposedly NOT. Else they'd have attacked on that sitting duck.
The "ghost of Kiev" pilot is probably no longer alive.
DiabloWags
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concordtom said:

oskidunker said:

DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com

Supposedly Ukraine has operational aircraft plus Poland has sen a few more. I wonder what they are waiting for?
Supposedly NOT. Else they'd have attacked on that sitting duck.
The "ghost of Kiev" pilot is probably no longer alive.

The "Ghost of Kiev" pilot is most likely a totally fictitious character.
dimitrig
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DiabloWags said:

That 45 mile long Russian convoy that is approaching Kiev has got to be the biggest military strategic blunder in the making. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has thought out loud what a few A-10 "Warthogs" would do to that convoy.

A-10 'Warthog' Thunderbolt II | Military.com

Ukraine must not have a functioning air force at this point or it would be stupid.


bearister
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A Russian missile hit the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial site in Kyiv today, killing at least five people, Ukrainian officials said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted: "[W]hat is the point of saying 'never again' for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar?"
"Between 1941 and 1943, the Nazis shot between 70,000 and 100,000 people at Babyn Yar, including almost the entire Jewish population of Kyiv," according to the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center." Axios
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concordtom
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bearister said:

A Russian missile hit the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial site in Kyiv today, killing at least five people, Ukrainian officials said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted: "[W]hat is the point of saying 'never again' for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar?"
"Between 1941 and 1943, the Nazis shot between 70,000 and 100,000 people at Babyn Yar, including almost the entire Jewish population of Kyiv," according to the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center." Axios
The point is that Putin has thousands of nuclear warheads sitting atop rockets that can bomb the world. I appreciate where he's coming from, but there is a dance to be danced. It's not as straight forward as flying in and blowing up this invading horde, which we COULD do.

What are the chances that Putin launches missiles if we were to do that?
Is that a chance anyone other than the Ukrainians looking at Russian trucks right now is willing to take?
1 bomb would kill way more people than are going to die in this ordeal. Their country will be wrecked, sure. But in terms of loss of life, the nuclear option has to be avoided at all costs.
okaydo
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DiabloWags
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DiabloWags said:






By the way, it would be terribly naive to think that there couldnt be "non-Ukrainian" drones put into service. As it is, Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to start the process of taking control of fighter planes they expect to be donated by European countries, according to EU security chief, Hosep Borrell.


Borrell's tweet has since been deleted.
going4roses
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Hmm ?
Tell someone you love them and try to have a good day
bearister
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Mutinous Russian troops overheard complaining about Ukraine invasion



https://mol.im/a/10567135
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Unit2Sucks
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Just learned that NYPD's budget is almost 2x Ukraine's defense budget. Crazy on so many levels but next time someone complains about calls to reduce funding to police just think about that.
dimitrig
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Unit2Sucks said:

Just learned that NYPD's budget is almost 2x Ukraine's defense budget. Crazy on so many levels but next time someone complains about calls to reduce funding to police just think about that.


Can we pay NYPD officers in rubles?
chazzed
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Thus far, Biden has done a good job of dealing with the Russian invasion:
https://newrepublic.com/article/165545/state-union-biden-ukraine-economy
going4roses
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Where are Jan 6 patriots ?
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going4roses
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https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdAewAvV/

Is he wrong or right ?
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cbbass1
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sycasey said:

Big C said:


You know what really strikes me about all this?

Here we are in the 21st century and we have a major, nuclear power invading another country -- a sovereign nation -- under false pretexts, for the purposes of regime change! I mean, tanks... missiles... heading straight into the capital city and obliterating anyone/anything that tries to stop them!

I can't believe this is happening! Unprecedented!

Yup, it was bulls*** when the USA went into Iraq and just as bulls*** now. Worse even, because the US had no intention of making any part of Iraq permanent American territory.
The territory remains Iraqi.

The oil became "American".
calbearinamaze
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going4roses said:

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdAewAvV/

Is he wrong or right?


Statistically, he's full of crap

At the beginning he throws out the numbers $3,100/year and $5,100/year
as average (mean) and median Russian income.

1. he'd have to prove to me that the numbers are anywhere near that low
e.g.
What is the average salary of a Russian citizen in U.S. dollars? - Quora

2. he completely misstates the effect of oligarch incomes

It's the median that controls for "the few" not the average=> his is a totally boneheaded statement


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going4roses
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Thanks

The teeth were giving weirdo vibes for sure. Appreciate you swiftly clearing it up in an informational/respectful manner.
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DiabloWags
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Russian Air Superiority?

Not so fast.

Ukraine's drone strikes reveal Russian planning failures, expert says (yahoo.com)
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Russian Air Superiority?

Not so fast.

Ukraine's drone strikes reveal Russian planning failures, expert says (yahoo.com)



Nice job Ukraine. They said they have destroyed 32 Russian vehicles with their 20 drones since the war started. Russia said they have shot down some. The article said Russia has done a bad job of keeping it's anti-drone defense with the targets they are protecting. Even though Russia has air superiority over much of the large country of Ukraine, their vehicles and bombers still have vulnerabilities.
bearister
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"Russia is likely to repeat what it sees as a war-winning tactic of besieging cities and exploiting the destruction of their infrastructure to leave their inhabitants facing intolerable conditions. The question may soon be how long the millions of Ukrainians who have remained in major cities can survive in underground shelters while Russia does its best to deny them access to food, water and medical supplies. The only restraining factor on Russia's campaign of destruction is likely to be the knowledge that cities that have been reduced to rubble are harder to fight into and capture than ones that can be seized intact."


This is Russia's way of war. Putin has no qualm about medieval levels of brutality


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/02/ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-medieval-levels-of-brutality?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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dimitrig
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

Russian Air Superiority?

Not so fast.

Ukraine's drone strikes reveal Russian planning failures, expert says (yahoo.com)



Nice job Ukraine. They said they have destroyed 32 Russian vehicles with their 20 drones since the war started. Russia said they have shot down some. The article said Russia has done a bad job of keeping it's anti-drone defense with the targets they are protecting. Even though Russia has air superiority over much of the large country of Ukraine, their vehicles and bombers still have vulnerabilities.

What happened to Russia's Air Force?
bearister
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Pictured: Charred remains of Putin's tanks smouldering on edge of Kyiv



https://mol.im/a/10569027
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concordtom
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chazzed said:

Thus far, Biden has done a good job of dealing with the Russian invasion:

Feel free, people, to respond to this by creating a list of what you would have liked him to do differently?

Let's see.... he announced what was happening, to everyone.
He has committed to keeping US bodies out of conflict.
He evacuated embassies and told American citizens to leave country.
He has worked with global leaders to coordinate financial sanctions, and they are massive!
He he announced release of oil reserves to help soften the global increase in price.
He has committed to sending Ukraine military and humanitarian support, covertly in a way that doesn't allow Russia to pinpoint our deliveries, and we will not be sending in complicated weapons systems that Ukrainians may not know how to operate or would fall directly into the hands of the invading army.
What else has he done, not done.

I'm good with all that.
What say ye?
Big C
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concordtom said:

chazzed said:

Thus far, Biden has done a good job of dealing with the Russian invasion:

Feel free, people, to respond to this by creating a list of what you would have liked him to do differently?

Let's see.... he announced what was happening, to everyone.
He has committed to keeping US bodies out of conflict.
He evacuated embassies and told American citizens to leave country.
He has worked with global leaders to coordinate financial sanctions, and they are massive!
He he announced release of oil reserves to help soften the global increase in price.
He has committed to sending Ukraine military and humanitarian support, covertly in a way that doesn't allow Russia to pinpoint our deliveries, and we will not be sending in complicated weapons systems that Ukrainians may not know how to operate or would fall directly into the hands of the invading army.
What else has he done, not done.

I'm good with all that.
What say ye?


Our recent response has been fine. Measured. We're doing what we can do.
concordtom
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Alexander Vindman says Trump, Mike Pompeo, and Fox News helped bring about Putin's invasion of Ukraine
  • Former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman accused Trump and the GOP of emboldening Vladimir Putin.
  • He said the GOP had "blood on its hands" over the Ukraine crisis.
  • Vindman testified in Trump's first impeachment investigation.
Former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who rose to prominence as a witness in Donald Trump's first impeachment trial, said the the Republican Party has "blood on its hands" for emboldening Russia to invade Ukraine.
Vindman, who is Ukrainian-American, made the comments in an interview with Salon that was published on Monday.
He said that Trump's refusal to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the factors that led Putin to act. He also blamed Trump for weakening the US internally with his divisive politics.
He singled out Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Fox News host Tucker Carlson for criticism, highlighting their praise for Putin even as it became clear that he would invade.

"The Tucker Carlsons, the Donald Trumps, the Mike Pompeos, they and other Republicans are going to have to own this issue because they are the reason that Russia launched this operation," said Vindman.
Vindman, who served as the top Europe expert on the National Security Council, said that the domestic divisions exposed by the Jan 6 riot had likely been a factor in Putin deciding to act now.
"Putin, like Trump, smells vulnerability and exploits it. Vladimir Putin perceived that the United States was distracted and vulnerable. He's been testing our resolve. He's been getting positive signals in that regard," he said.
"There is blood on the Republican Party's hands. They were partially responsible for what is happening in Ukraine," he said.
"Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump were basically as popular on Russian TV as they are here in this country. They're constantly being played there. What is the impression given? The United States is divided, and there's an opportunity there. So these folks now own it."
Vindman was serving as director for European affairs on the National Security Council when he was subpoenaed in 2019 by lawmakers probing allegations Trump had abused his power in witholding military aid from Ukraine.
Vindman testified that he thought a phone call in which Trump sought to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to produce dirt on Joe Biden was improper, prompting a backlash of criticism from Trump and his allies.
Vindman is currently suing several allies of Trump, claiming they waged a campaign of intimidation to stop him testifying.
He accused them of punishing him for his testimony by spreading lies about him and forcing him from his job, which ultimately led to him resigning from the military in summer 2020.
In recent weeks he has criticized Trump and his allies for their stance on Russia, but also said that Biden had not done enough to deter its aggression.
Unit2Sucks
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concordtom said:

chazzed said:

Thus far, Biden has done a good job of dealing with the Russian invasion:

Feel free, people, to respond to this by creating a list of what you would have liked him to do differently?

Let's see.... he announced what was happening, to everyone.
He has committed to keeping US bodies out of conflict.
He evacuated embassies and told American citizens to leave country.
He has worked with global leaders to coordinate financial sanctions, and they are massive!
He he announced release of oil reserves to help soften the global increase in price.
He has committed to sending Ukraine military and humanitarian support, covertly in a way that doesn't allow Russia to pinpoint our deliveries, and we will not be sending in complicated weapons systems that Ukrainians may not know how to operate or would fall directly into the hands of the invading army.
What else has he done, not done.

I'm good with all that.
What say ye?

Two pieces of criticism that I've heard. First - we should be sending way more aid. The cost is a drop in the bucket for us but would be a difference maker for Ukraine. Second - from Ben Sasse on NPR - that we aren't getting the intel over fast enough. He blames the fact that the administration is slowing things down to have lawyers sign off to ensure that we aren't actively involved in the war. I don't know whether this is valid criticism or how much difference it would make, but it's colorable criticism.
MinotStateBeav
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A guy I watch periodically named Bald and Bankrupt, he visits many eastern european countries and likes to see old soviet monuments, architecture, etc. He happened to be on the Polish/Ukraine Border 1 day before the invasion and traveled to Kharkiv.

One Day Before Invasion




Escaping Kharkiv/Kyiv to Hungary

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