Unit2Sucks said:
Today's update on reality.
David Frum sucks, but this is pretty much spot on.
Despite people who may claim otherwise, the international sanctions are having meaningful impacts on Russia. In addition to preventing Russia from repairing/replacing modern military hardwear and material, they are suffering bigly from loss of access to semis, even worse that we have seen from the pandemic.
The cherry on top of all of the Putin and Kremlin delusion, is their announcement of "martial law" in areas of Ukraine that they only pretend to control. Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache. He does have a horse tho. Of course, there are a number of possible reasons that have been floated for why he declared martial law, and all of them speak to Putin's incredibly weak hand and the continued erosion of any advantages he had in this war. He's losing far more troops than Ukraine and has been exhausting his offensive arsenal. He's basically reduced to sniping guerilla warfare which can be successful for a defense but is no way to win an offensive war. Putin knows he won't win but is continuing to try to save face and hope that some useful idiot bails him out.
You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.
First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Rouble has been the strongest currency in the world:
The rouble's strength is tied to the strength of the Russian economy and its growing trade surplus, due to the sanctions having a very limited effect on its export volume, and a positive effect on commodities price. Not just oil and gas, but also grains, metals, cement, fertilizer etc, with Russia now having the world's cheapest energy, and competitors like Europe, Japan or Korea now having to deal with much higher oil and gas prices (esp Europe).
On the frontlines, the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian losses has been around 3 to 1, due to the fact that Ukraine is on the offensive, and Russia has retreated to defensible lines. Ukraine has been losing between 600 and 1,000 troops daily, with most of these losses coming in the Kherson region. They are trying to establish an advantage before the end of the Fall season, in anticipation of a major Russian escalation and winter campaign.
