The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Unit2Sucks
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Incredibly sad that Putin has sacrificed 90k young Russian men to his vanity and pathos. Even sadder that people in the US are placing the blame for this on Ukraine, the US or NATO. There is one person who can prevent the further atrocities and that person is in his dacha right now trying to figure out what combination of war crimes and nuclear threats it will take to break Ukraine's will so he can eventually take their sovereignty. Shame on everyone who has enabled him.
Unit2Sucks
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More and more Russians starting to figure it out.



So much for pretending to care about nazis.




I don't think this is true, but funny to think about.




Unit2Sucks
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Russia may have the most overrated military in the world with awful strategy, no training and non existent logistics, but at least they aren't woke.







It's amazing that Putin was dumb enough to believe that his military was legitimate or dumb enough to expose how subpar they are to the world. In less than a year they've gone from pretend military power to laughing stock. Of course this is all terribly sad because Putin is sacrificing his people for an unjust cause and in hopes of killing other innocent people. Here's hoping he is held accountable before he dies alone.

EDIT: This is despicable. Wonder what else Putin has in mind.

bearister
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Elite Iranian troops secretly enter Ukraine frontline to help Putin's horror blitz - World News - Mirror Online


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/elite-iranian-troops-secretly-enter-28242533


*The Ukrainians must be giggling up a storm over this. Unless these "Elite" Iranian troops stay very far from the front lines, what's left of them will be sent home in a box and they will literally be dick heads.
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DiabloWags
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Putin needs to be ELIMINATED.

Bucha.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bucha-gravediggers-60-minutes-2022-10-16/
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
bearister
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Brutal story. After hearing that father speak of his murdered young family, and after that attack on Russian soldiers at the firing range, I see a lot of suicide bombers in Moscow's future.
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DiabloWags
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bearister said:

Brutal story. After hearing that father speak of his murdered young family, and after that attack on Russian soldiers at the firing range, I see a lot of suicide bombers in Moscow's future.


Like that Father said, he has nothing left to live for. I too, see a lot of suicide bombers in Moscow's future.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
concordtom
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Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.
dimitrig
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concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.


I don't know about NATO, but maybe UN

concordtom
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China and Russia are on the UN Security Council. I don't see how that could proceed.
Cal88
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concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.

If NATO were concerned about people not starving and freezing this winter, perhaps they wouldn't have blown up Nordstream.
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.

If NATO were concerned about people not starving and freezing this winter, perhaps they wouldn't have blown up Nordstream.


There is no evidence NATO blew up nordstream, no one knows what happened. There are plenty of people speculating on who blew it up, but speculation is not fact.
Cal88
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Sigh.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

Sigh.
Facts are hard.
Cal88
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Professor Plum, in the library, with a candlestick?
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

Sigh.
I know. Guilty until proven innocent is SO convenient.
Big C
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concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.

I'd love it if some other country who always wanted to attack Russia launched an offensive on a completely different part of their country. Even if it was only a semi-minor incursion, it would give them a little something else to worry about.
bearister
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Big C said:

concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??



I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.

I'd love it if some other country who always wanted to attack Russia launched an offensive on a completely different part of their country. Even if it was only a semi-minor incursion, it would give them a little something else to worry about.


The Boys from Brazil Division?

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concordtom
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Cal88 said:

concordtom said:

Knee jerk hot take.
Russia is knocking out Ukraine electrical and water resources just before winter??

I think NATO should start trucking in massive columns of military and humanitarian forces to keep millions from starving and freezing.

Just make an announcement to Putin that this is not okay and do it. He's not going to attack nato forces.

If NATO were concerned about people not starving and freezing this winter, perhaps they wouldn't have blown up Nordstream.

OMG, what evidence is there that ANYONE blew it up?
Unit2Sucks
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Today's update on reality.

David Frum sucks, but this is pretty much spot on.



Russian state media is becoming far more eyes wide open so I hope they don't find themselves near open windows any time soon given how unsafe they are in Russia.


Despite people who may claim otherwise, the international sanctions are having meaningful impacts on Russia. In addition to preventing Russia from repairing/replacing modern military hardwear and material, they are suffering bigly from loss of access to semis, even worse that we have seen from the pandemic.



The cherry on top of all of the Putin and Kremlin delusion, is their announcement of "martial law" in areas of Ukraine that they only pretend to control. Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache. He does have a horse tho. Of course, there are a number of possible reasons that have been floated for why he declared martial law, and all of them speak to Putin's incredibly weak hand and the continued erosion of any advantages he had in this war. He's losing far more troops than Ukraine and has been exhausting his offensive arsenal. He's basically reduced to sniping guerilla warfare which can be successful for a defense but is no way to win an offensive war. Putin knows he won't win but is continuing to try to save face and hope that some useful idiot bails him out.






DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:


If NATO were concerned about people not starving and freezing this winter, perhaps they wouldn't have blown up Nordstream.


Cool story bro.
Cool story.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
bearister
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I figure declaring Martial Law in territory you don't control with boots on the ground translates to:

A free pass to kill civilians you spot from the sky on the ground after curfew with drones (if you have any left).
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sonofabear51
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Sounds like good solid Russian logic.
Start Slowly and taper off
Cal88
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Martial law has been in place across the Donbass since 2014, put into place by the Kiev government. Russia extended it to the warzone in Kherson in anticipation of a major Ukrainian offensive, probably the last one before the late Fall mud season.

Ukraine wants to reduce Russian positions on the right bank of the Dniepr before the onset of winter and in anticipation of the massive escalation in Russian military manpower with the addition of 300,000 troops.

In addition to this, Ukraine will have some serious issues with their infrastructure having been targeted, they will have to fend off 2 to 3 times as many Russian forces with limited fuel and power, which will significantly hamper their military logistics.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Today's update on reality.

David Frum sucks, but this is pretty much spot on.

Despite people who may claim otherwise, the international sanctions are having meaningful impacts on Russia. In addition to preventing Russia from repairing/replacing modern military hardwear and material, they are suffering bigly from loss of access to semis, even worse that we have seen from the pandemic.

The cherry on top of all of the Putin and Kremlin delusion, is their announcement of "martial law" in areas of Ukraine that they only pretend to control. Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache. He does have a horse tho. Of course, there are a number of possible reasons that have been floated for why he declared martial law, and all of them speak to Putin's incredibly weak hand and the continued erosion of any advantages he had in this war. He's losing far more troops than Ukraine and has been exhausting his offensive arsenal. He's basically reduced to sniping guerilla warfare which can be successful for a defense but is no way to win an offensive war. Putin knows he won't win but is continuing to try to save face and hope that some useful idiot bails him out.

You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.

First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Rouble has been the strongest currency in the world:




The rouble's strength is tied to the strength of the Russian economy and its growing trade surplus, due to the sanctions having a very limited effect on its export volume, and a positive effect on commodities price. Not just oil and gas, but also grains, metals, cement, fertilizer etc, with Russia now having the world's cheapest energy, and competitors like Europe, Japan or Korea now having to deal with much higher oil and gas prices (esp Europe).



On the frontlines, the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian losses has been around 3 to 1, due to the fact that Ukraine is on the offensive, and Russia has retreated to defensible lines. Ukraine has been losing between 600 and 1,000 troops daily, with most of these losses coming in the Kherson region. They are trying to establish an advantage before the end of the Fall season, in anticipation of a major Russian escalation and winter campaign.
calpoly
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Today's update on reality.

David Frum sucks, but this is pretty much spot on.

Despite people who may claim otherwise, the international sanctions are having meaningful impacts on Russia. In addition to preventing Russia from repairing/replacing modern military hardwear and material, they are suffering bigly from loss of access to semis, even worse that we have seen from the pandemic.

The cherry on top of all of the Putin and Kremlin delusion, is their announcement of "martial law" in areas of Ukraine that they only pretend to control. Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache. He does have a horse tho. Of course, there are a number of possible reasons that have been floated for why he declared martial law, and all of them speak to Putin's incredibly weak hand and the continued erosion of any advantages he had in this war. He's losing far more troops than Ukraine and has been exhausting his offensive arsenal. He's basically reduced to sniping guerilla warfare which can be successful for a defense but is no way to win an offensive war. Putin knows he won't win but is continuing to try to save face and hope that some useful idiot bails him out.

You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.

First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world:


"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!
Cal88
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calpoly said:

Cal88 said:

You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.

First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world.

"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!

Hello Calpoly, what part of this graph below showing YTD comparative currency returns vs the US$ don't you understand, maybe I can help (I'll go slowly), perhaps it's been a while since you took Econ 1:

Cal88
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It's also very noteworthy to mention that Russia has been winning big on the diplomatic front as well, they've somehow managed to pry Turkey from the NATO/EU side, and have turned Saudi Arabia into a partner, along with keeping India politically outside the NATO coalition and economically as a solid trade partner, with the creation of a new land/intermodal trade route between Russia and India:


https://www.bilaterals.org/?india-russia-plan-to-open-new


Unit2Sucks
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calpoly said:

Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Today's update on reality.

David Frum sucks, but this is pretty much spot on.

Despite people who may claim otherwise, the international sanctions are having meaningful impacts on Russia. In addition to preventing Russia from repairing/replacing modern military hardwear and material, they are suffering bigly from loss of access to semis, even worse that we have seen from the pandemic.

The cherry on top of all of the Putin and Kremlin delusion, is their announcement of "martial law" in areas of Ukraine that they only pretend to control. Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache. He does have a horse tho. Of course, there are a number of possible reasons that have been floated for why he declared martial law, and all of them speak to Putin's incredibly weak hand and the continued erosion of any advantages he had in this war. He's losing far more troops than Ukraine and has been exhausting his offensive arsenal. He's basically reduced to sniping guerilla warfare which can be successful for a defense but is no way to win an offensive war. Putin knows he won't win but is continuing to try to save face and hope that some useful idiot bails him out.

You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.

First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world:


"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!
He's not worth responding to - he's immune to reality and just here to parrot Kremlin talking points and make predictions that will prove laughably false in a few months time.


He is a master of cherry-picking and pretending he has any clue what he's taking about but if you dig deep enough there is always a giveaway - whether it's a fake time magazine cover or some other obvious Kremlin-backed source. I'm done wasting my time fact-checking him and have put him on ignore. The less people respond to his unreliable Kremlin-narrative driven dogma, the better.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

calpoly said:


"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!
He's not worth responding to - he's immune to reality and just here to parrot Kremlin talking points and make predictions that will prove laughably false in a few months time.

He is a master of cherry-picking and pretending he has any clue what he's taking about but if you dig deep enough there is always a giveaway - whether it's a fake time magazine cover or some other obvious Kremlin-backed source. I'm done wasting my time fact-checking him and have put him on ignore. The less people respond to his unreliable Kremlin-narrative driven dogma, the better.

You're decades deep into your career as a lawyer, so the notion that you can make a falsehood true by lying over and over again has been completely ingrained into your psyche. Hang on to the slightest wrinkle in your opponent's argument and drown the conversation with it.

Goldman Sachs chart on the comparative GDP growth rate history of Russia and European countries = cherrypicking, and outright "Kremlin-based propaganda"

FX chart showing relative currency strength over the year = more cherrypicking and more "Kremlin-based propaganda"

Neocon hacks Frum and Davis commentary on the situation in Ukraine = absolutely not cherrypicking, gospel.

Thanks for playing.

I can understand why you want to take your ball and go home.
Cal88
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The bottom line here is that if you buy uncritically into the propaganda of Frum and Davis, who have managed to sell disasters like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, you will think that Ukraine is going to drive Russia off its territories and reconquer Crimea.

You would be basically throwing hundreds of thousands of mostly Ukrainian lives into the Great Game meat grinder, in a military campaign with a tiny probability of success, and a large probability of a major escalation, if not outright a world war and nuclear conflagration. You're like nationalists in 1915 wanting to prolong WW1 instead of seeking an end of the war through diplomacy.

Ukraine has to accept that Crimea is never coming back, the same way that Germany accepted that Alsace-Lorraine or Danzig was never coming back. The majority of Ukrainians wanted a settlement in thee Donbass along the Minsk agreements lines, that was the platform that got Zelensky elected in the first place. This is the only possible outcome here, the question is how many more hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will have to die in order for the parties to get back to the negotiating table.
smh
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> Putin is turning into Emperor Norton but without the fashion sense, charisma or panache.

wikiwiki grab for the uninformed (me)..
> On the evening of January 8, 1880, Norton collapsed on the corner of California Street and Dupont Street (now Grant Avenue) in front of Old Saint Mary's Cathedral while on his way to a lecture at the California Academy of Sciences [23] His collapse was immediately noticed, and "the police officer on the beat hastened for a carriage to convey him to the City Receiving Hospital", according to the next day's obituary in the San Francisco Morning Call. Norton died before a carriage could arrive. The Call reported, "On the reeking pavement, in the darkness of a moonless night, under the dripping rain ... Norton I, by the grace of God, Emperor of the United States and Protector of Mexico, departed this life". Two days later, the San Francisco Chronicle led its article on Norton's funeral with the headline "Le Roi Est Mort."
>
> It quickly became evident that Norton had died in complete poverty, contrary to rumors of wealth.

src..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Norton#Later_years_and_death
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

calpoly said:

Cal88 said:

You're going to be pretty far from reality by relying on neocon zealots like Frum and Davis for your news on Ukraine.

First of all, Russia is doing well economically, its currency has strengthened and has been remarkably stable in 2022. In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world.

"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!

Hello Calpoly, what part of this graph below showing YTD comparative currency returns vs the US$ don't you understand, maybe I can help (I'll go slowly), perhaps it's been a while since you took Econ 1:




If the Russian economy was working, they would be producing their weapons en masse. Instead they are buying weapons from countries not known for their weapons capability like Iran.

The russian war economy is faltering.
Unit2Sucks
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golden sloth said:




If the Russian economy was working, they would be producing their weapons en masse. Instead they are buying weapons from countries not known for their weapons capability like Iran.

The russian war economy is faltering.
Russia has nothing to hide. They are the best of everything - just ask the Kremlin.




oops.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

calpoly said:


"In fact the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world"

Right, and I have a bridge for you to buy!
He's not worth responding to - he's immune to reality and just here to parrot Kremlin talking points and make predictions that will prove laughably false in a few months time.

He is a master of cherry-picking and pretending he has any clue what he's taking about but if you dig deep enough there is always a giveaway - whether it's a fake time magazine cover or some other obvious Kremlin-backed source. I'm done wasting my time fact-checking him and have put him on ignore. The less people respond to his unreliable Kremlin-narrative driven dogma, the better.

FX chart showing relative currency strength over the year = more cherrypicking and more "Kremlin-based propaganda"



You forgot to mention that the Russian Govt had to institute massive capital controls to stabilize the Ruble this year as well as their Central Bank raising interest rates to 20 percent earlier this year. Rates are currently at 7.5%.

Zero context = Cherry-picking



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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