golden sloth said:Cal88 said:oski003 said:Cal88 said:movielover said:
Haven't been able to keep up with our proxy war news.
Is Ukraine still bleeding men? Are combatants now chiefly Ukrainian and Poles?
Is Russia bringing 200,000 new troops?
Are we really low on ammo and other military equipment?
Ukraine has been bleeding men at a very high rate, 700-1,000 men/day in a desperate bid o hold on to Bakhmut, the regional hub in the Donbass, and site of their main fortress in the area. If it falls, the remainder of the Donbass becomes vulnerable.
https://www.ft.com/content/dcdd09bf-440a-4648-9664-6084b11dddd4
Poland has had a large contingent in the war, and may have already lost around 4,000 men, some of the political repercussions from this are going to be felt domestically.
Russia is taking its time, grdually injecting the first half of the 350,000 new troops. These troops are not conscripts, they're reservists who have already served in the military, along with 70,000 volunteers.
This is the kind of somewhat static type of warfare they favor where their heavy artillery advantage makes a big difference. They might keep the slow grind going through winter and the spring mud season. Their main goal is to push Ukrainian losses past their breaking point, and at this rate, they're halfway there.
The main result of NATO's help has been to raise that breaking point, virtually eliminating the prospect for a diplomatic settlement. It doesn't change the final result, and herein lies the tragedy of this war.
At this point Russia has less and less incentive to work out a settlement, as they no longer trust their counterparts, especially with the recent open declarations by both Merkel and former Ukr. prez Poroshenko, who stated that Minsk II was just a temporary truce meant to give Ukraine and NATO time to arm themselves and reconquer the Donbass and Crimea, as opposed to the permanent peace settlement it was meant to be. As a result of this, Russia is going to go all the way, demanding a surrender on its own terms, much less favorable than what Ukraine could have asked for today or earlier this year.
The US/NATO have ordered 100,000 shells from South Korea a month ago, about 2-3 weeks' worth of ammo for Ukraine. Their inventories are running very low on shells and anti-tank weaponry, as well as tanks, FSU planes, the arsenals of Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia etc have been depleted, with high material and personnel losses having been incurred in the Kherson offensive. Russia has destroyed over 100% of Ukraine's original arsenal, most of its smaller current arsenal is made up of donations/purchases from its neighbors.
With this in mind, the Russians are probably going to keep grinding away, conducting a slow and steady artillery war where they have a huge advantage in fire volume and have a correspondingly favorable body count. They can further ratchet up their grip on the situation through taking out Ukrainian infrastructure.
Why are these 350,000 trained reservists now entering the war? Why didn't they enter the war months ago? Why enter the untrained when you had trained reservists?
Part of it is that the Russians expected to have a short war with a decapitation operation, or an early settlement after their show of force. They've managed to capture nearly a quarter of Ukraine with those 200,000 conscripts. They would have gotten that result, a Minsk III type agreement, had it not been for the intervention of NATO.
As well Putin is very risk-averse, going with a larger force has political risks, and most of all, he wanted to hold off the bulk of his forces for fear of NATO jumping in on several fronts (Georgia, Kaliningrad, Baltics, the Pacific etc) with the bulk of his army bogged down in Ukraine.
Since February, there is a greater political acceptance of the war at home, due to the reports of Ukrainian atrocities like the sadistic execution of Russian POWs and the open displays of nazi ideology. And even more so because Russia was able to sustain the economic embargo and sanctions, winning the diplomatic and economic wars. The BRICS are emerging as an economic and political force in the world, and the Russians have managed to win over important global players like India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, along with China.
I'll just correct a few statements:
1. Russia failed in their rush on Kyiv not because of NATO who was pleading for Zelensky to flee the country, but because Ukraine was able to prevent Russia from holding the airport outside Kyiv and Russia didnt have a logistical capability to support the war that deep into enemy territory. Russia also failed in acknowledging Russia would be greeted as an enemy not a savior.
2. The embargo is working as Russia is struggling to manufacture new weapons to sustain the war effort, all the men in the world dont matter if they dont have a weapon to use.
3. Russia is not winning the diplomatic war. Turkey is still very much a NATO ally. India is just taking advantage of the cheap oil, they do not support Russia or Russia's war. China has not helped Russia at all and has made Russia puppet Chinese talking points as russia is desperate.
1. Agree about the military failure in Kiev, though that show of force, along with their strong advances particularly in the south would have precipitated a diplomatic settlement in March, if it wasn't for the intervention of NATO, particularly Boris Johnson. This led to a hardening of Ukrainian govt position, with the purging of moderates within its ranks, like the assassination of one moderate member of their Istanbul peace talks delegation, liquidated gangster-style.
https://7news.com.au/news/ukraine/competing-claims-emerge-after-ukraine-official-denis-kireev-accused-of-treason-shot-dead-in-street-c-5958770
Ukraine's internal KGB-like security apparatus, the 30,000-strong SBU, has maintained an iron grip on the country, intimidating and liquidating moderate local politicians who don't fully support the war.
2. Russia military-industrial complex is operating at full capacity, they've been preparing for this and hoarding a lot of ammunition. They're producing drones and missiles at a high rate, and ammunition on a large industrial scale, as reported by British think tank RUSI. It's NATO that is being depleted, they are now sourcing Soviet-era equipment in places like Morocco as the inventory of EE members are being depleted. There are no large-scale production facilities in Europe or the US capable of matching that of Russia. That was the gist of this article:
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
3. India is not only buying Russian oil, which it is reexporting to western markets like Rotterdam, but it is also setting up new trade routes with Russia through Iran:
India & Russia plan to open new trade route via Iran despite threat of US sanctions
Turkey has also become a hub for Russian exports and grey market imports. It is at odds with the US due to the US support of Kurds in Syria, which Turkey views as an existential threat. Turkey accused the US of being indirectly responsible for the recent bombing in Istanbul's busy Istiklal street.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3734308-turkey-alleges-us-complicity-in-deadly-istanbul-bombing-rejects-condolence-statement/
3. China has been covertly helping Russia, supplying them with chips for their MIC. Several Russian military transport Antonovs have been spotted shuttling back and forth.
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-russian-transport-aircraft-visit-china-en-masse-fuel-speculation-on-military-supplies