The window for a winter attack is narrow, Russia will have to move in before mid-March. Chances are they will now try to stretch the front to exploit their numeric advantage, the opposite of what they did last Fall when they retreated from the Kherson and Kharkiv areas because their <200k forces were stretched very thin across a 1,200mi+ frontline.
Chances are they will attack on several fronts, east (in progress), north and south as well as maintain some pressure on Kiev to keep 100k+ Ukrainian soldiers pinned there, but they are less likely to sweep in big arrow maneuvers and expose their troops to ambushes and logistical failures, as happened last winter.
People are going to look at last Fall, period where Ukraine made large territorial gains, as a huge wasted opportunity for Ukraine to get a peace deal on relatively favorable terms, at a point where their losses were smaller, and where their negotiation position was the strongest since 2014.
Chances are they will attack on several fronts, east (in progress), north and south as well as maintain some pressure on Kiev to keep 100k+ Ukrainian soldiers pinned there, but they are less likely to sweep in big arrow maneuvers and expose their troops to ambushes and logistical failures, as happened last winter.
People are going to look at last Fall, period where Ukraine made large territorial gains, as a huge wasted opportunity for Ukraine to get a peace deal on relatively favorable terms, at a point where their losses were smaller, and where their negotiation position was the strongest since 2014.
