The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

875,753 Views | 9918 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by movielover
MinotStateBeav
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"That article has been debunked, all kinds of holes."

"Ok what are the holes?"

"I'm not going to get into that right now"



How anyone listens to Applebaum and expects truth is a joke beyond all jokes. The J6 committee called for her testimony hahhahah. The media creamed themselves over her appearance hah.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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MinotStateBeav said:



"That article has been debunked, all kinds of holes."

"Ok what are the holes?"

"I'm not going to get into that right now"



How anyone listens to Applebaum and expects truth is a joke beyond all jokes. The J6 committee called for her testimony hahhahah. The media creamed themselves over her appearance hah.
Why didn't they just call Radoslaw Sikorski to testify since it's his tweet?
MinotStateBeav
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

MinotStateBeav said:



"That article has been debunked, all kinds of holes."

"Ok what are the holes?"

"I'm not going to get into that right now"



How anyone listens to Applebaum and expects truth is a joke beyond all jokes. The J6 committee called for her testimony hahhahah. The media creamed themselves over her appearance hah.
Why didn't they just call Radoslaw Sikorski to testify since it's his tweet?
It's not just Radoslaw...it's Biden, it's Nuland, that dude in the state dept, forget his name,It's the Hersch article..too many in this white house have said they would essentially end NS2, which is hilarious because prior to the Ukraine invasion, Biden essentially removed the restriction on NS2 construction that Trump had placed on it. NS2 was stuck at 90% complete and no construction contractors would touch it for fear of being sanctioned.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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MinotStateBeav said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

MinotStateBeav said:



"That article has been debunked, all kinds of holes."

"Ok what are the holes?"

"I'm not going to get into that right now"



How anyone listens to Applebaum and expects truth is a joke beyond all jokes. The J6 committee called for her testimony hahhahah. The media creamed themselves over her appearance hah.
Why didn't they just call Radoslaw Sikorski to testify since it's his tweet?
It's not just Radoslaw...it's Biden, it's Nuland, that dude in the state dept, forget his name,It's the Hersch article..too many in this white house have said they would essentially end NS2, which is hilarious because prior to the Ukraine invasion, Biden essentially removed the restriction on NS2 construction that Trump had placed on it. NS2 was stuck at 90% complete and no construction contractors would touch it for fear of being sanctioned.
OK, I totally get why they have somebody's wife testifying about her husband's three word tweet.

There must be thousands of similar tweets. I look forward to the testimony of their significant others.
movielover
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At a recent speech in India, head Russian diplomat Lavrov said Zelensky signed a law last year which makes it *illegal* for any Ukranian to engage in peace talks if Putin is President.

That's really helpful. s/

Items like this probably push Russia to move towards Kiev again.
Cal88
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movielover said:

At a recent speech in India, head Russian diplomat Lavrov said Zelensky signed a law last year which makes it *illegal* for any Ukranian to engage in peace talks if Putin is President.

That's really helpful. s/

Items like this probably push Russia to move towards Kiev again.

They didn`t have sign a law to dissuade any Ukrainians from engaging in peace talks, as exactly one year ago, Ukraine boldly assassinated in broad daylight Denys Kireyev, a main member of their Istanbul peace talks official delegation, who was deemed to be too much of a dove:



https://7news.com.au/news/ukraine/competing-claims-emerge-after-ukraine-official-denis-kireev-accused-of-treason-shot-dead-in-street-c-5958770

This sent a clear message for any other Ukrainian officials that their lives would be in danger if they sought peace with Russia.
movielover
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I happened to meet a new young immigrant from Russia (Sochi) this weekend, and we had a nice chat.

- She was no fan of Putin and blames it all on him
- When I politely brought up Minsk and the Israeli PM peace talks, she was silent
- She claimed that in Russia those that are Caucasian are seen as "real Russians"; and others are referred to with a Russian term I can't recall. I said, "Second class citizen?", and she said "Yes". I told her that the vast majority of Americans understand someone might have a different culture, but we're all equal. She said "This is what I really like about America."
- I asked her about Nazis in Ukraine; she claimed these groups exist 'all over Europe'
- Only here six months, but claims there's no good Russian food in The City. Doesn't like tacos. I advised her to find a taqueria with a grandmother who doesn't speak English. She agreed. "That's always the best."
Cal88
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movielover said:

I happened to meet a new young immigrant from Russia (Sochi) this weekend, and we had a nice chat.

- She was no fan of Putin and blames it all on him
- When I politely brought up Minsk and the Israeli PM peace talks, she was silent
- She claimed that in Russia those that are Caucasian are seen as "real Russians"; and others are referred to with a Russian term I can't recall. I said, "Second class citizen?", and she said "Yes". I told her that the vast majority of Americans understand someone might have a different culture, but we're all equal. She said "This is what I really like about America."
- I asked her about Nazis in Ukraine; she claimed these groups exist 'all over Europe'
- Only here six months, but claims there's no good Russian food in The City. Doesn't like tacos. I advised her to find a taqueria with a grandmother who doesn't speak English. She agreed. "That's always the best."

I guess you're using "Caucasian" here is in the American framework, meaning of European stock, because in Russia, Caucasians or people hailing from the north Caucasus region are ethnic minorities, like Chechnyans, Dagestanis or Tatars who are mostly of Turkic or Northern Caucasian extraction as opposed to European Slav. These people speak their native language at home but learn Russian as their primary language in schools and universities, and have a dual identity as ethnic Dagestani, Chechen etc and also as Russian citizens.

Russia endorses (at the very least nominally) a civic nationalist state identity where its ~20% minorities and the 3 main minority religions of Islam Buddhism and Judaism are the official state religions. Russia has the highest percentage of Muslims in Europe (excluding small Balkan states like Bosnia and Albania), at around 15%, but contrary to countries like France, Netherlands, UK etc with large Muslim minorities, the Muslim Russians have been a part of the national mosaic from day 1, and don't consider themselves as foreign, immigrant peoples.

Most ethnic minorities/migrant workers in big Russian cities like Moscow or St Petersburg are Turkic minorities hailing from former Soviet central Asian countries, the "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Tadjikistan, Kyrgyzstan etc. They might be considered as 2nd class citizens because they're usually foreign nationals who take on lower-paid/menial jobs, though that dynamic is not as strong as in most western countries where the cultural and historical gap between the locals and migrants is much wider.

By and large, the majority of Russian immigrants in the US don't like Putin, they tend to be younger liberal professionals hailing from the big cities who migrate to coastal cities in the US. This demographic also is the most anti-Putin in Russia itself. Older, blue-collar Russians however are solidly supportive of Putin, in good part because they've lived through the hellish dystopia of the 1990s, where 40%-50% of Russians were plunged into abject poverty, and their economy and civic society completely cratered.

Russians who remember the 90s credit Putin for having righted that ship and bringing relative stability and prosperity to their country. And Russia having a typical eastern European demography with a relatively small young cohort, this translates into the high ratings Putin gets at home.
Unit2Sucks
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movielover said:


- When I politely brought up Minsk and the Israeli PM peace talks, she was silent

Funny, when I bring up Minsk, you continue to be silent. Yet, as I predicted, rather than try to understand why Minsk is a Kremlin talking point you are back to pretending that it's something you can use to defend Russia's invasion. I established that Putin's official position is that Russia is not a party to or bound by Minsk. Do you agree with that position? If you do agree with that position, do you still think that Putin can complain about Ukraine not adhering to an agreement that Putin doesn't consider Russia to be a party to? Bonus points if you can tell us how you would react to evidence that Russia was actually a party to the agreement and that Putin is just full of sh(t.

Have you figured out yet why you care about Minsk or are you going to ignore this because you are still waiting for someone to tell you what you are suppose to think?
Unit2Sucks
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Good thread from Mick Ryan on Bakhmut. I think he undersells just how little regard Putin has for his own forces which causes Ryan to overvalue Russia's losses to win Bakhmut, but ultimately I don't see much debate in that Russia's victory in Bakhmut is entirely symbolic. They burned 10k of their own troops over 8 months to capture a town that they reduced to rubble and that can't support their operations. Obviously the question is why Ukraine fought so hard and whether it was worth it - they suffered massive casualties and unlike Russia care about preserving their soldiers. Perhaps they determined that keeping Wagner and Russian military forces occupied in the pointless front at Bakhmut paid dividends in preventing them from making gains elsewhere.







movielover
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Yes, Ukraine will withdraw with some battalions at 50% staffed, and with allegedly limited ammunition.

Interesting that you don't give an estimate for Ukraine's loses in Bakhmut.

Is the Donbas more valuable in resources than central or western Ukraine?
Unit2Sucks
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movielover said:

Yes, Ukraine will withdraw with some battalions at 50% staffed, and with allegedly limited ammunition.

Interesting that you don't give an estimate for Ukraine's loses in Bakhmut.

Is the Donbas more valuable in resources than central or western Ukraine?
You find it interesting that I don't make up numbers the way that your propagandists sources do?

I find it interesting that you continue to dodge the question on Minsk. After months of pretending that Ukraine's failure to adhere to Minsk caused the war, I provided you with unimpeachable public statements from Russia proving that they did not believe Russia to be a party to or bound by Minsk, in response to your repeated request. Now that you have that information, you still have been unable to provide your opinion - whether because you are waiting for propagandists to tell you what that opinion should be or because you simply can't understand what is really happening. Feel free to let us know.

In other news, it looks like Putin poisoned his erstwhile BFF Kadyrov. Rumor has it that his palace in Grozny doesn't have any functioning windows so defenestration wasn't an option. Another war criminal colleague ally of his in Chechnya was poisoned by Putin last month as well.

I'm sure someone will share some propaganda showing that Kadyrov wasn't really poisoned and is doing just fine, but there is a lot of solid reporting that Kadyrov went to the UAE for emergency healthcare because he doesn't trust Russian doctors.
movielover
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HistoryLegends covers the Russian victory in Vuhledar. Tank graveyard, failed military commander of the Tartar (?) Volunteer Battalion promoted. WagnerPNC questions logic.

Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Good thread from Mick Ryan on Bakhmut. I think he undersells just how little regard Putin has for his own forces which causes Ryan to overvalue Russia's losses to win Bakhmut, but ultimately I don't see much debate in that Russia's victory in Bakhmut is entirely symbolic. They burned 10k of their own troops over 8 months to capture a town that they reduced to rubble and that can't support their operations. Obviously the question is why Ukraine fought so hard and whether it was worth it - they suffered massive casualties and unlike Russia care about preserving their soldiers. Perhaps they determined that keeping Wagner and Russian military forces occupied in the pointless front at Bakhmut paid dividends in preventing them from making gains elsewhere.





You might get a better picture of what is really going on in Bakhmut if you cared to listen to the candid testimony of an Australian officer embedded in the Ukrainian army fighting there, instead of those of a professional author/media figure from Australia whose job is to sell a narrative to a gullible audience.

Here's what this officer had too say, he layed it out in this 3 minute summary in an interview with an independent source:



-Ukrainian brigade in the Donbass front "massively underequipped"

-Wagner equipped with latest technology, including "blue force" tracking drones identifying friendlies, artillery integrated combined arms attacks,

-Wagner have numeric superiority and are "attriting Ukrainians", meaning it's not Wagner that is experiencing 1-sided losses

-Wagner using effective tactics like infiltration teams-Ukrainian troops lacking NVGs (night vision goggles)/NFEs (night-fighting equipment)

-Wagner "have taken very few casualties", taking full advantage of superior ISR (drone reconnaissance combined with heavy artillery fire to identify, reduce and then finish weaker Ukrainian positions

Notice that anytime a media source talks about Russian casualties, they do not mention those of the Ukrainian army, which started out the war last year with a personnel size of ~650,000, has had 11 rounds of mobilizations since, and now fields a force of ~250,000, less that half the size of what it started with.

The truth is that Ukraine has been losing men at a far higher rate than Russia in this war of attrition. Russia has been relying on its vast advantage in the sheer volume of artillery, preferring to advance slowly and systematically.

Ukraine has not shown concern for preserving its troops, they should have retreated from Bakhmut months ago, and instead used up nearly 40,000 men in a failed attempt to hold on to that strategic city. Ukraine is also not making efforts to retrieve its dead, for PR reasons, but also to avoid paying pensions to their widows. Their ratio of KIA to wounded/MIA is almost 1 to 1, which is an appalling number.
dajo9
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Does anybody think movielover was assigned here because the bosses are disappointed in the results that cal88 has achieved?
oski003
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dajo9 said:

Does anybody think movielover was assigned here because the bosses are disappointed in the results that cal88 has achieved?


I don't.
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Does anybody think movielover was assigned here because the bosses are disappointed in the results that cal88 has achieved?

If those "results" were so bad, you wouldn't have been so compelled to make repeated vile and far-fetched character smears at me...
movielover
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Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

Does anybody think movielover was assigned here because the bosses are disappointed in the results that cal88 has achieved?

If those "results" were so bad, you wouldn't have been so compelled to make repeated vile and far-fetched character smears at me...


And he ignores:

- I posted the HistoryLegends video of a recent Ukraine victory, and Russian mistakes
- I posted about a young Russian immigrant I met who puts all the blame on Putin
Cal88
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movielover said:

Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

Does anybody think movielover was assigned here because the bosses are disappointed in the results that cal88 has achieved?

If those "results" were so bad, you wouldn't have been so compelled to make repeated vile and far-fetched character smears at me...


And he ignores:

- I posted the HistoryLegends video of a recent Ukraine victory, and Russian mistakes
- I posted about a young Russian immigrant I met who puts all the blame on Putin

That was another excellent analysis by HistoryLegends, it would have gotten more views and interest on this board had you properly labelled it as a Russian military defeat, which it clearly was.

Key to that victory, in addition to poor Russian strategy, was the Ukrainians' excellent use of their US-made Volcano mine delivery system, which remined parts that the Russians had already demined, contributing to the confusion and panic in the Russian ranks. Also contributing to that success is the thin layer of snow which made these air-scattered mines very hard to spot.

Overall this was a great, well-researched piece of how that ill-fated Russian attack went down, one that Zelensky fans would have enjoyed had they bothered watching.
movielover
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I appreciated your take on my convo w the young sharp woman. When I told her about the Israeli PM conducting peace talks which Boris Johnson ended, she was either unaware or it ran against her beliefs. But we were both being civil, having had a wide-ranging conversation w a stranger.

HL has a lag, but you can see the work he puts into them.
movielover
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Tony Shaffer: three times General McMaster tried to send our military into Syria (starts around 9:00). President Trump said no.

https://www.youtube.com/live/U2Zubr7gjl0?feature=share
MinotStateBeav
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NordStream2 News: It's a "Pro-Ukrainian Group" hahahahhahahaha
MinotStateBeav
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movielover said:

Tony Shaffer: three times General McMaster tried to send our military into Syria (starts around 9:00). President Trump said no.

https://www.youtube.com/live/U2Zubr7gjl0?feature=share
here's the timestamp of where he says it

movielover
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The fact that NPR prints this, likely means the State Dept / Foggy Bottom want the message out.

NPR: In the Donbas, Russia's vast numbers of troops weigh heavily on Ukraine's defenders

"...The Russian and Ukrainian armies have burned through many of their best soldiers in the past year of war. Both sides now rely heavily on conscripts. Andriy says the problem is that Russia has far more troops than Ukraine, and even young, inexperienced men like the ones killed last night pose a challenge simply by virtue of their numbers."

Worst case scenario, a Ukranian soldier says Russia takes half the country. I'd cut a deal now. The longer they wait, more men will be killed, and more land in play.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1159671076/ukraine-war-donbas-russian-ukrainian-troops
Big C
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Open question (to which I doubt anybody here has a reliable answer):

How's the support for this war in Russia lately (both from the POV of the powerful oligarchs and also the average Russian)?

I kind of figured they might be getting sick and tired of it by now and maybe Putin would feel like it's time to accept a largely-Ukraine-favorable settlement, as long as he got a couple of bones thrown his way, which he could spin so as to save face. (Either that, or Putin would just flat-out get toppled.)

(Sorry, but I can't trust any opinion polls that are released by his regime.)
oski003
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Big C said:


Open question (to which I doubt anybody has the answer):

How's the support for this war in Russia lately (both from the POV of the powerful oligarchs and also the average Russian)?

I kind of figured they might be getting sick and tired of it by now and maybe Putin would feel like it's time to accept a largely-Ukraine-favorable settlement, as long as he got a couple of bones thrown his way, which he could spin so as not to lose face. (Either that, or Putin would just flat-out get toppled.)

Sorry, but I can't trust any opinion polls that are released by his regime.


If the Russian news is as pro-Russian as our news is pro-Nato, they probably are anticipating toppling Kyiv by the end of the year and therefore most (but hardly all) are tolerating the war.
movielover
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FT: Germany confronts a broken business model

https://www.ft.com/content/50a462b3-0e8b-49e1-873c-9505760d4a66

The deindustrialization of Germany?
MinotStateBeav
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movielover said:



FT: Germany confronts a broken business model

https://www.ft.com/content/50a462b3-0e8b-49e1-873c-9505760d4a66

The deindustrialization of Germany?
Wait till their green energy policies kick in and they have to run heaters on it while having an industry sector.
movielover
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And Ukraine receives 130 soldiers.

movielover
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Banderas was funded by our CIA??
Unit2Sucks
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movielover said:

Banderas was funded by our CIA??
Yes, that was the plot of Once Upon A Time in Mexico. Not Antonio Banderas' finest hour but kudos to you for remembering it.

oski003
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Unit2Sucks said:

movielover said:

Banderas was funded by our CIA??
Yes, that was the plot of Once Upon A Time in Mexico. Not Antonio Banderas' finest hour but kudos to you for remembering it.




He is talking about Stepan Andriyovych Bandera, who was a Ukrainian far-right leader of the radical, militant wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, and is honored throughout Ukraine today. Yes, the U.S. supported Banderas, despite him being a Nazi collaborator. The enemy of your enemy (Russia) is your friend?
Cal88
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Big C said:


Open question (to which I doubt anybody has the answer):

How's the support for this war in Russia lately (both from the POV of the powerful oligarchs and also the average Russian)?

I kind of figured they might be getting sick and tired of it by now and maybe Putin would feel like it's time to accept a largely-Ukraine-favorable settlement, as long as he got a couple of bones thrown his way, which he could spin so as not to lose face. (Either that, or Putin would just flat-out get toppled.)

Sorry, but I can't trust any opinion polls that are released by his regime.

GW Bush's ratings in the year after the start of the Iraq War were in the 80%-90% range, perhaps the highest of any POTUS in the last 50 years. Putin has been in that range. I've provided the US context here to illustrate that most people will rally behind the flag in times of war.

Russia's economy has been largely unscathed, so the war hasn't affected the average citizen there much, which would have been one of the main triggers for popular discontent. The other trigger would be military casualties, which have been relatively small, around 20k-25k Russian soldiers killed in action to date.

There is perhaps another 10k-15k KIAs from the Donbass militias and Wagner mercenaries, whose losses don't affect the average Russian as much. The Russians are conducting this war in a manner that minimizes their losses, relying heavily on artillery volume and not going for "big arrow" moves like they did early last year, which came at a higher cost.

Putin is in no danger whatsoever of being overthrown, he's got too much of a following and legacy at home. He will be around through this decade, baring a successful attempt on his life.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:


Open question (to which I doubt anybody has the answer):

How's the support for this war in Russia lately (both from the POV of the powerful oligarchs and also the average Russian)?

I kind of figured they might be getting sick and tired of it by now and maybe Putin would feel like it's time to accept a largely-Ukraine-favorable settlement, as long as he got a couple of bones thrown his way, which he could spin so as not to lose face. (Either that, or Putin would just flat-out get toppled.)

Sorry, but I can't trust any opinion polls that are released by his regime.

GW Bush's ratings in the year after the start of the Iraq War were in the 80%-90% range, perhaps the highest of any POTUS in the last 50 years. Putin has been in that range. I've provided the US context here to illustrate that most people will rally behind the flag in times of war.

Russia's economy has been largely unscathed, so the war hasn't affected the average citizen there much, which would have been one of the main triggers for popular discontent. The other trigger would be military casualties, which have been relatively small, around 20k-25k Russian soldiers killed in action to date.

There is perhaps another 10k-15k KIAs from the Donbass militias and Wagner mercenaries, whose losses don't affect the average Russian as much. The Russians are conducting this war in a manner that minimizes their losses, relying heavily on artillery volume and not going for "big arrow" moves like they did early last year, which came at a higher cost.

Putin is in no danger whatsoever of being overthrown, he's got too much of a following and legacy at home. He will be around through this decade, baring a successful attempt on his life.

Good point referencing Bush and the Iraq War, except we started out really well, then it gradually became a slog as we needed to hold what we had taken. Russia started out terrible, then picked up steam, then faded and now is resurgent. But yeah, the people hear the propaganda and rally around their country.

I'm not sure the Russian people aren't feeling the effects of the war, or at least they are hearing about it. Aren't a lot of their young men being conscripted? Aren't a lot of young, educated Russians thinking they might want to live elsewhere these days? I have to believe their casualty rates are significant, their lines for consumer goods have gotten longer and many of their citizens are hearing stories from the West.
movielover
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That's the point - compared to Ukraine, some 'pro-Russian' individuals claim their casualties aren't high.

This is an old-fashioned war fought from great distances much of the time. By Russia using long-range artillery, aided by Iranian drones, they can avoid a lot of close combat.

Interwebs: "Russia also has access to a large number of other artillery systems: 9A52-4 "Tornado" MLRS: up to 90km range. BM-30 "Smerch" MLRS: 70 to 90km range. 2S7 "Pion" 203mm heavy artillery: 37,5 to 55km range."

That's the distance from San Francisco to San Jose.
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