Uncalled for comments on Crimea.
oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
sycasey said:One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
"Iranian engineers receive from Russia samples of Western-made weapons seized in Ukraine, including Javelin, Stinger anti-tank systems etc," CNN reports. pic.twitter.com/kw916N09CZ
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) March 10, 2023
In a footage made by Ukrainian soldiers we can see that the roads out of Bakhmut are littered with vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Artillery of the RuAF destroyed tanks, armored vehicles and cars. pic.twitter.com/hs2n9C2w9c
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) March 10, 2023
‼️⚠️🇭🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺Hungarian Prime Minister Orban believes that the West is "very close" to seriously discussing the prospect of sending its forces to Ukraine
— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) March 10, 2023
So I have to say that... the world has never been so close to turning a local war - after all, it was about Lugansk and Donetsk - into a world war. The probability of this is growing from day to day," Orban said on Kossuth Radio.
— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) March 10, 2023
sycasey said:One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
oski003 said:sycasey said:One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?
sycasey said:oski003 said:sycasey said:One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?
I don't understand how this reply addresses anything related to my post.
I said nothing about a "high" likelihood, just that it was a possibility.oski003 said:sycasey said:oski003 said:sycasey said:One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.oski003 said:sycasey said:Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.oski003 said:
You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
This is confusing. Who do I believe?
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...
Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?
I don't understand how this reply addresses anything related to my post.
Zelensky gave a passionate speech to Congress saying that Ukraine losing Bakhmut could tip the war in Russia's favor. Zelensky zealously plead for military aid to hold Bakhmut. Now, Russia is about to take Bakhmut. You are arguing that efforts to hold Bakhmut have a high likelihood of being a purposeful distraction to focus Russia on a meaningless target. Therefore, I am asking if Zelensky was trying to fool the secret Russian spies in Congress who would be fooled by his Oscar worthy acting skills and direct Putin to attack Bakhmut.
sycasey said:
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.
I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
Quote:
So why has Ukraine been defending Bakhmut so doggedly, losing thousands of troops in the process?
The main strategic purpose is to use the battle to weaken Russia's army. One Western official put it bluntly: "Bakhmut, because of the Russian tactics, is giving Ukraine a unique opportunity to kill a lot of Russians."
Nato sources estimate five Russians are dying for every one Ukrainian in Bakhmut. Ukraine's national security secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, says the ratio is even higher at seven to one.
These numbers are impossible to verify. Serhii Kuzan told the BBC: "As long as Bakhmut fulfils its function, allowing us to grind down the enemy's forces, to destroy much more of them proportionately than the enemy inflicts losses on us, until then we will of course keep on holding Bakhmut." By defending the city, Ukraine also ties up Russian forces that could be deployed elsewhere on the front line.
movielover said:
Right now we're in the Fog of War where we don't have clear data. We'll know in time.
Quote:
Colonel McGregor alleges 200K-300K Ukrainian KIA, and 200K wounded, 100K who will never fight again.
US is luring Europeans with promises of access to some of tax credits and subsidies from last year's 'landmark' US climate bill.
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) March 10, 2023
But even in EU, they understand leaving the Chinese market will be the beginning of the end of the 'sweet European life' at the expense of others.
movielover said:US is luring Europeans with promises of access to some of tax credits and subsidies from last year's 'landmark' US climate bill.
— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) March 10, 2023
But even in EU, they understand leaving the Chinese market will be the beginning of the end of the 'sweet European life' at the expense of others.
Follow links for more.
Eastern Oregon Bear said:movielover said:
Right now we're in the Fog of War where we don't have clear data. We'll know in time.Quote:
Colonel McGregor alleges 200K-300K Ukrainian KIA, and 200K wounded, 100K who will never fight again.
Something tells me McGregor can't see through the Fog of War any better than we can. Especially since he's retired and not in active duty anymore.
What’s really behind the latest Color Revolution attempt in Georgia? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/sGxIcrlDzy
— Andrew Korybko (@AKorybko) March 9, 2023
Good news ➡️ the Georgian government intends to withdraw proposed "foreign agent" laws that would have made it difficult for NGOs & media to operate. The people of Georgia made clear they want a country with free expression, a free press, & a path to Euro-Atlantic integration.
— Samantha Power (@PowerUSAID) March 9, 2023
movielover said:
Evgeny Prigozhin announces desire to be PM of Ukraine in 2024.
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦The commander of the AFU Ground Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, "visited" Bakhmut for the 5th time
— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) March 11, 2023
"It is necessary to gain time for the accumulation of reserves and the beginning of the spring counteroffensive, which is just around the corner," said Syrskyi. pic.twitter.com/xcCVpCaaBG
1/ Many videos have been posted by mobilised Russians in the past month, complaining about the conditions they face in Russia's current offensive. Here's a deeper look at their complaints and a major new factor – the role of the Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics'. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/PDYaL6PYvk
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
9/ 🔺 They lack equipment and armoured vehicles
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
🔺 Fire support is absent
🔺 Communications are poor
🔺 Orders are unclear or lacking entirely
🔺 They are taking unnecessary casualties
🔺 Medical help and evacuation is unavailable
12/ Another consistent theme in the recent videos is the mobiks describing how they have been ordered to carry out assaults despite having no training as assault troops. This was true of the earlier wave of videos, as well. But the circumstances are different. pic.twitter.com/CjMTPfqgnj
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
17/ The two 'republics' – the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic (DNR and LNR) each have an Army Corps, numbered as the 1st and 2nd respectively. They were equipped with obsolete, in some cases WW2-era, weapons such as 80-year-old Mosin rifles. pic.twitter.com/HQEMKgJN3c
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
19/ The mobilisation was a remarkably brutal process – men were literally snatched off the street at gunpoint and impressed into the army. Prisoners and students were also forcibly conscipted. Exemptions for age or infirmity were routinely ignored.https://t.co/Ze7EPfVmJv
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
Unit2Sucks said:
Good thread on the new wave of mobik videos "appeals to the czar" which has a long history in Russia. Obviously, they will get nowhere with Putin but we can gleam from the videos what sorts of challenges the Russian military is facing. In a prior wave of the videos there were legions of men complaining about not having food, water, armor, etc. and we learned of families selling their possessions in order to provide their mobilized men with equipment.
While the complaints about food and water may have been resolved, there are still a lot of complaints which confirms a lot of the reporting we've seen and is, of course, counter to all of the Russian propaganda which fills this thread.
He also discusses the relationship between the Russian forces and the "independent" republics, and talks about the brutal mobilization, which the Russian trolls here would have you believe is really just a UFA issue - classic firehose of falsehoods projection at its finest.1/ Many videos have been posted by mobilised Russians in the past month, complaining about the conditions they face in Russia's current offensive. Here's a deeper look at their complaints and a major new factor – the role of the Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics'. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/PDYaL6PYvk
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 20239/ 🔺 They lack equipment and armoured vehicles
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
🔺 Fire support is absent
🔺 Communications are poor
🔺 Orders are unclear or lacking entirely
🔺 They are taking unnecessary casualties
🔺 Medical help and evacuation is unavailable12/ Another consistent theme in the recent videos is the mobiks describing how they have been ordered to carry out assaults despite having no training as assault troops. This was true of the earlier wave of videos, as well. But the circumstances are different. pic.twitter.com/CjMTPfqgnj
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 202317/ The two 'republics' – the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic (DNR and LNR) each have an Army Corps, numbered as the 1st and 2nd respectively. They were equipped with obsolete, in some cases WW2-era, weapons such as 80-year-old Mosin rifles. pic.twitter.com/HQEMKgJN3c
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 202319/ The mobilisation was a remarkably brutal process – men were literally snatched off the street at gunpoint and impressed into the army. Prisoners and students were also forcibly conscipted. Exemptions for age or infirmity were routinely ignored.https://t.co/Ze7EPfVmJv
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) March 10, 2023
One of the many reasons to be skeptical of Russian propaganda reporting on casualties is the fact that, in addition to being completely full of sh(t you can pretty much guarantee that they aren't counting the "independent" forces or the mercs they are using, all of whom are facing extremely high casualty rates.
And to anyone still reading this thread in good faith, I apologize for the resulting firehose of falsehoods that will likely flood the zone following this post.
Oh and also worth noting there was reportedly a sniper ambush by UFA which wiped out a Wagner unit in Bakhmut which is easy to believe given how poor the command and control continues to be with Russian forces.
Як тільки росіяни займуть дорогу на Хромове, Бахмут плавно почне перетворюватись з фортеці на велику брацьку могилу. Тоді вже мовчати про речі, які бісять багато місяців, сенсу не залишиться. Можливо хтось побачить в них зраду, але мені вже буде глибоко начхати. Терпіння спливає.
— твій друг Стус (@slovyanskasil) March 10, 2023
In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.Quote:
As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.Quote:
"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
MinotStateBeav said:
Reading on a Credible Defense forum on reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/11nolb9/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_10_2023/
One of the guys that went down to bahkmut last month says there is an internal argument between the old guard that served in the soviet army and now are back serving and the new nato trained guys. The old guard is turning the army into the old soviet army..so you have essentially a soviet vs soviet battle. The new guys want to use mobility to disrupt the numbers advantage Russia has. The old guard is winning the argument atm. Another is a post from a guy that is currently serving in Bahkmut and is talking about leadership...
iAMfish007 -
Prominent UA mil-figures are warning of the dangers of holding Bakhmut for longer.
Here's a well-known drone operator from 93rd Brigade:Як тільки росіяни займуть дорогу на Хромове, Бахмут плавно почне перетворюватись з фортеці на велику брацьку могилу. Тоді вже мовчати про речі, які бісять багато місяців, сенсу не залишиться. Можливо хтось побачить в них зраду, але мені вже буде глибоко начхати. Терпіння спливає.
— твій друг Стус (@slovyanskasil) March 10, 2023In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.Quote:
As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
Prominent TG channel Vae Victis also comments the following: https://t. me/adbestias/6794Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.Quote:
"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
First off, you're right, it's not credible because I can't corroborate it, however, some of this stuff isn't the first I've heard. I had heard there was a disconnect between senior leadership and the on ground platoon guys weeks ago. They should have kept the old soviet guard out of the fight and let the nato trained guys take the lead.dimitrig said:MinotStateBeav said:
Reading on a Credible Defense forum on reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/11nolb9/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_10_2023/
One of the guys that went down to bahkmut last month says there is an internal argument between the old guard that served in the soviet army and now are back serving and the new nato trained guys. The old guard is turning the army into the old soviet army..so you have essentially a soviet vs soviet battle. The new guys want to use mobility to disrupt the numbers advantage Russia has. The old guard is winning the argument atm. Another is a post from a guy that is currently serving in Bahkmut and is talking about leadership...
iAMfish007 -
Prominent UA mil-figures are warning of the dangers of holding Bakhmut for longer.
Here's a well-known drone operator from 93rd Brigade:Як тільки росіяни займуть дорогу на Хромове, Бахмут плавно почне перетворюватись з фортеці на велику брацьку могилу. Тоді вже мовчати про речі, які бісять багато місяців, сенсу не залишиться. Можливо хтось побачить в них зраду, але мені вже буде глибоко начхати. Терпіння спливає.
— твій друг Стус (@slovyanskasil) March 10, 2023In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.Quote:
As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
Prominent TG channel Vae Victis also comments the following: https://t. me/adbestias/6794Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.Quote:
"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
The media isn't talking about it because they don't have any facts to report.
A few posts from some soldiers who claim to be involved isn't reporting. Even if these are legitimate takes and they really are involved they aren't high level enough to have all the facts.
It would be irresponsible to report this information without any ability to corroborate it. Reddit and Twitter are entertainment, not news.
A closer look at the Bakhmut supply "roads" shows there is still a few viable routes. Keep in mind, all of these "roads" are dirt tracks in fields at best. pic.twitter.com/isxzkNfOgy
— Def Mon (@DefMon3) March 10, 2023
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Soldiers in Bakhmut have the time, ability and internet access to be posting on Reddit? Yeah, right.