The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

875,549 Views | 9916 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by bear2034
movielover
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Victoria Nuland has upped her dangerous quotient. Short snippet here with Judge Napolitano and weapons inspector, propagandist, and adult-chat-room bad boy Scott Ritter.

Uncalled for comments on Crimea.



Big C
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oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?

Since you asked, here's what I do:

I cast a skeptical eye on info from sources I do not know and trust. Maybe it's true, but quite possibly not...

Then I draw a line that represents a position that is approximately right in between the two sides.

Finally, I use my own background knowledge and common sense to decide which side might be closer to the truth and I venture over towards that side (maybe far over, maybe nor so far, depending).
sycasey
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oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.
oski003
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
movielover
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Warning - graphic content.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-to-probe-after-videos-show-alleged-russian-pows-shot/
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.
oski003
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.


Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?
movielover
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Cal88
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.


Luring the enemy with tens of thousands of undertrained, underequipped and outgunned "bunnies" to be hunted down by the Russians?
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.


Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?

I don't understand how this reply addresses anything related to my post.
oski003
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sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.


Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?

I don't understand how this reply addresses anything related to my post.


Zelensky gave a passionate speech to Congress saying that Ukraine losing Bakhmut could tip the war in Russia's favor. Zelensky zealously plead for military aid to hold Bakhmut. Now, Russia is about to take Bakhmut. You are arguing that efforts to hold Bakhmut have a high likelihood of being a purposeful distraction to focus Russia on a meaningless target. Therefore, I am asking if Zelensky was trying to fool the secret Russian spies in Congress who would be fooled by his Oscar worthy acting skills and direct Putin to attack Bakhmut.
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

sycasey said:

oski003 said:

You have the BI Patriotic peanut gallery saying Bakhmut is not important (now that Ukraine is losing it) and Zelensky saying, "The fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."

This is confusing. Who do I believe?
Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


4D Chess. Interesting. Was the entire U.S. Congress in on this or were they just a pawn of NATO? ...

Who am I kidding... You are a good patriotic NATO supporter.
One possible instance of tricking the enemy into attacking a low-value target is hardly "4D Chess," but okay.


Was it the Russian spies in Congress who relayed to Putin that Bakhmut is important because Zelensky is rallying Congress to support it? Is that how the queen's gambit worked?

I don't understand how this reply addresses anything related to my post.


Zelensky gave a passionate speech to Congress saying that Ukraine losing Bakhmut could tip the war in Russia's favor. Zelensky zealously plead for military aid to hold Bakhmut. Now, Russia is about to take Bakhmut. You are arguing that efforts to hold Bakhmut have a high likelihood of being a purposeful distraction to focus Russia on a meaningless target. Therefore, I am asking if Zelensky was trying to fool the secret Russian spies in Congress who would be fooled by his Oscar worthy acting skills and direct Putin to attack Bakhmut.
I said nothing about a "high" likelihood, just that it was a possibility.

IMO Zelensky is going to ask the US and everyone else for more resources regardless.
Cal88
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Zelensky at his address before Congress before Christmas:

"just like the Battle of Saratoga, the fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom."

He mentioned Bakhmut 7 times in that speech.

But no, it was all just a feint to draw the Russians in...


Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:


Again, this has already been discussed several times on this thread. If Ukraine is trying to goad Russia into pouring resources into Bakhmut, this is exactly what they would be saying.

I don't know if that's what they're doing, but statements like this don't disprove the theory at all.


There have been a lot of reasons floated for taking Bakhmut on both sides but at this point it's likely that it's for political and not for military reasons.

That said, BBC has a pretty balanced article on it today. Article mentions that Russia wants it for symbolic reasons (this military effort has been an epic disaster for them with wins few and far between), for military reasons (to potentially open up further territorial gains), and because Prigozhin has made it his cause celebre (as evidence that Wagner can do what Russia's ineffective military could never do on its own). It notes that Ukraine's main purpose is to occupy and weaken Russia's military which is taking disproportionate losses but that it has also taken on political significance.

Quote:

So why has Ukraine been defending Bakhmut so doggedly, losing thousands of troops in the process?
The main strategic purpose is to use the battle to weaken Russia's army. One Western official put it bluntly: "Bakhmut, because of the Russian tactics, is giving Ukraine a unique opportunity to kill a lot of Russians."

Nato sources estimate five Russians are dying for every one Ukrainian in Bakhmut. Ukraine's national security secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, says the ratio is even higher at seven to one.

These numbers are impossible to verify. Serhii Kuzan told the BBC: "As long as Bakhmut fulfils its function, allowing us to grind down the enemy's forces, to destroy much more of them proportionately than the enemy inflicts losses on us, until then we will of course keep on holding Bakhmut." By defending the city, Ukraine also ties up Russian forces that could be deployed elsewhere on the front line.

There is obviously a pretty big divide between the useful idiots pushing Kremlin propaganda and people who support Ukraine. Splitting the difference like Big C does is one approach, but that really just incentivizes the useful idiots to continue to amplify quite ridiculous propaganda which we know is not even close to the truth.

If the propaganda that the Kremlin were pushing was even remotely true, this war would have been over last spring - like they predicted it would be. If their propaganda were true, they would have won in Vuhledar and they would have taken Bakhmut a long time ago - as they predicted. One of the key elements of this firehose of falsehoods is that they definitely don't want people to be able to examine their predictions in hindsight because they have been wrong on every single count. They often manage to contradict themselves and yet be wrong on every count. But none of that matters to them, flooding the zone with BS to confuse everyone and mask their failure is the point.

If Ukraine's military is out of ammo, is untrained, and has lost half a million or more troops, how is it that Russia has literally been unable to make any significant progress in this war in a year? If Russia has unlimited artillery, well-trained and motivated forces, strong leadership, clear strategic imperatives and the support of people in Ukraine, why has this war been such a disaster for them? Why have all of their limited gains in the last year come from released convicts employed by Wagner? Why would Prigozhin be complaining about running out of ammo? Why would Russia be begging Iran, North Korea and China for ammo?

I'll give you guys a hint: it's not true and we should regard it as the garbage it is. And we should understand that the people spreading this vile Kremlin propaganda are doing so knowingly, with intention to deceive and in support of Putin's inhumane war effort. Only they really know why it is they are rooting for Putin to conquer Ukraine, murder hundreds of thousands of their soldiers (at the expense of hundreds of thousands of Russians) and with the utter disregard for the well being of tens of millions of civilians in Ukraine.
movielover
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[useful idiots]

Your name calling doesn't advance your position.

The BBC = UK's CNN?

[If the propaganda that the Kremlin were pushing was even remotely true, this war would have been over last spring]

You must not be listening to people like Colonel McGregor. He's acknowledged two different phases. Russia started out with a total military of 200,000 soldiers, and Ukraine had what, 600,000 - 700,000 NATO trained soldiers?

[Vuhledar] This one defeat really excites you, I can tell.

[and they would have taken Bakhmut a long time ago - as they predicted.]

Ukraine allegedly spent years fortifying Bakhmut for this clash. It also takes 3x the force to remove an entrenched force (Ukraine) playing defense.

[One of the key elements of this firehose of falsehoods is that they definitely don't want people to be able to examine their predictions in hindsight because they have been wrong on every single count.]

Not every count. McGregor and Ritter have said Russia misjudged the original engagements, and has adjusted. Russia now has over 500,000 trained military while Ukraine has diminished in size. They've become closer to Iran and China, Iran providing them drones, which they have weaved into their battle strategies. This is not "shock and awe" Hollywood - they're protecting their soldiers and grinding away.

I've posted the loss at Vuhledar, something you would never do.

No progress? Russia has 18% of the country, and is apparently moping up the biggest land battle in decades, possibly 50 years. They can't make big moves now because of legendary mud.

You're confusing land with casualties. Right now we're in the Fog of War where we don't have clear data. We'll know in time.

[Why would Prigozhin be complaining about running out of ammo?]

Ocassional turf war?

[Why would Russia be begging Iran, North Korea and China for ammo?]

Nobody said they're begging. Ukraine is predicting another three years, so maybe Putin is being a wise manager. NATO, Germany all reportedly incredibly low on ammo, Germany can't even defend herself (Colonel McGregor). Europe has admitted they don't have the manufacturing capability, and our smart bombs take a long time to produce in limited quantities. Meanwhile, Russia has 1500 new tanks and outfitted 500,000 men.

It is Victoria Nuland, Lloyd Austin, NATO, Blinken, Sullivan and Biden who want to "weaken Russia". The opposite appears to have occurred. Not to mention Biden and Blinken bombing Nordstream 1 and 2.

Colonel McGregor alleges 200K-300K Ukrainian KIA, and 200K wounded, 100K who will never fight again. Taking 300K-400K of their best soldiers off the battlefield would explain the videos of Ukraine allegedly kidnapping men in their 40s and teens off the street for the military. Your viewpoint is that these numerous, detailed, different videos are largely propoganda. The gloves are off, which is why Russia has taken out utilities, energy systems, and also air defense.

It's ugly. Ukraine also killed their peace negotiator; some claim one of the Nazi elements did it.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

Right now we're in the Fog of War where we don't have clear data. We'll know in time.

Quote:

Colonel McGregor alleges 200K-300K Ukrainian KIA, and 200K wounded, 100K who will never fight again.

Something tells me McGregor can't see through the Fog of War any better than we can. Especially since he's retired and not in active duty anymore.
movielover
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Possibly. But I know he has more DOD and Mossad contacts than you or I.

And I bet he doesn't buy the story of some yacks on a sailboat taking out ND 1 and 2. Joe Biden, the first POTUS ever to attack an ally via a terrorist act.
movielover
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Follow links for more.
dajo9
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movielover said:




Follow links for more.


Can never get enough Trollstoy88
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Right now we're in the Fog of War where we don't have clear data. We'll know in time.
Quote:

Colonel McGregor alleges 200K-300K Ukrainian KIA, and 200K wounded, 100K who will never fight again.

Something tells me McGregor can't see through the Fog of War any better than we can. Especially since he's retired and not in active duty anymore.

MacGregor has close personal relationships with NATO officers that he has known and worked with over the course of his military career, fought together in Iraq etc., including high-ranking officers from Germany and France, who have access to the real intel on the Ukraine war, as opposed to the stuff that is issued for public consumption. Ukraine and NATO know the exact figure of Ukrainian losses but these figures have been a closely guarded secret.


Good 10min conversation about intel around the Ukraine war with career CIA officer Larry Johnson:



movielover
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Samantha Power at it again. Their new proposed foreign agent law, based on our FARA laws, would expose the US?



movielover
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Evgeny Prigozhin announces desire to be PM of Ukraine in 2024.
Big C
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movielover said:

Evgeny Prigozhin announces desire to be PM of Ukraine in 2024.

Is he the Wagner Group oligarch guy? Yeah he would be super-popular as PM! He could wander into crowds in Kiev and press the flesh, kind of like a 21st century Bobby Kennedy (in a number of respects).
movielover
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Cal88
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^ I'm not sure how easy it is for him to get out of there soon, provided he is really there:



As well mud season is starting there now. It's not going to be easy for the thousands of Ukrainian troops left in Bakhmut to retreat from the slowly-closing wide pincer.
movielover
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I would expect nothing less from a vodka-drinking Putin propagandist! s/
Unit2Sucks
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Good thread on the new wave of mobik videos "appeals to the czar" which has a long history in Russia. Obviously, they will get nowhere with Putin but we can gleam from the videos what sorts of challenges the Russian military is facing. In a prior wave of the videos there were legions of men complaining about not having food, water, armor, etc. and we learned of families selling their possessions in order to provide their mobilized men with equipment.

While the complaints about food and water may have been resolved, there are still a lot of complaints which confirms a lot of the reporting we've seen and is, of course, counter to all of the Russian propaganda which fills this thread.

He also discusses the relationship between the Russian forces and the "independent" republics, and talks about the brutal mobilization, which the Russian trolls here would have you believe is really just a UFA issue - classic firehose of falsehoods projection at its finest.











One of the many reasons to be skeptical of Russian propaganda reporting on casualties is the fact that, in addition to being completely full of sh(t you can pretty much guarantee that they aren't counting the "independent" forces or the mercs they are using, all of whom are facing extremely high casualty rates.

And to anyone still reading this thread in good faith, I apologize for the resulting firehose of falsehoods that will likely flood the zone following this post.

Oh and also worth noting there was reportedly a sniper ambush by UFA which wiped out a Wagner unit in Bakhmut which is easy to believe given how poor the command and control continues to be with Russian forces.
dimitrig
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Unit2Sucks said:

Good thread on the new wave of mobik videos "appeals to the czar" which has a long history in Russia. Obviously, they will get nowhere with Putin but we can gleam from the videos what sorts of challenges the Russian military is facing. In a prior wave of the videos there were legions of men complaining about not having food, water, armor, etc. and we learned of families selling their possessions in order to provide their mobilized men with equipment.

While the complaints about food and water may have been resolved, there are still a lot of complaints which confirms a lot of the reporting we've seen and is, of course, counter to all of the Russian propaganda which fills this thread.

He also discusses the relationship between the Russian forces and the "independent" republics, and talks about the brutal mobilization, which the Russian trolls here would have you believe is really just a UFA issue - classic firehose of falsehoods projection at its finest.











One of the many reasons to be skeptical of Russian propaganda reporting on casualties is the fact that, in addition to being completely full of sh(t you can pretty much guarantee that they aren't counting the "independent" forces or the mercs they are using, all of whom are facing extremely high casualty rates.

And to anyone still reading this thread in good faith, I apologize for the resulting firehose of falsehoods that will likely flood the zone following this post.

Oh and also worth noting there was reportedly a sniper ambush by UFA which wiped out a Wagner unit in Bakhmut which is easy to believe given how poor the command and control continues to be with Russian forces.


Both sides do a lot of lying. This "snatching people off the streets" narrative has been suggested by both sides. It is likely completely false. Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there? He might desert or, worse, actively try to get you killed.

If you want to see how the war is going I think you just need to look at the fact that it has been a year and Russia hasn't made any advances. That's how it is going.

movielover
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Those Rooskies must be some tough hombres, fighting the Stalingrad of Ukraine - Bakhmut - with shovels! Yes. Shovels, I tell you. Ukraine (NATO) prepared their defensive positions and war tactics for eight years, but the Mighty Shovels of Crimea are turning the tide! Moguchiye lopaty Kryma!

We'll see what Russia does with the shovels once the pincer move closes on Bakhmut. Some analysts claim its the Gordian knot in Ukraine's defense.

Soledar was nothing.
Bakhmut is nothing.
Ukraine & NATO running out of ammo is nothing.

It's the message that's important.

movielover
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CNBC: Ukraine war live updates: Biden hosts top EU official as Ukraine reels from hypersonic missile attacks
MinotStateBeav
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Reading on a Credible Defense forum on reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/11nolb9/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_10_2023/

One of the guys that went down to bahkmut last month says there is an internal argument between the old guard that served in the soviet army and now are back serving and the new nato trained guys. The old guard is turning the army into the old soviet army..so you have essentially a soviet vs soviet battle. The new guys want to use mobility to disrupt the numbers advantage Russia has. The old guard is winning the argument atm. Another is a post from a guy that is currently serving in Bahkmut and is talking about leadership...

iAMfish007 -
Prominent UA mil-figures are warning of the dangers of holding Bakhmut for longer.
Here's a well-known drone operator from 93rd Brigade:
Quote:

As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.
Prominent TG channel Vae Victis also comments the following: https://t. me/adbestias/6794
Quote:

"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.
dimitrig
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MinotStateBeav said:

Reading on a Credible Defense forum on reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/11nolb9/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_10_2023/

One of the guys that went down to bahkmut last month says there is an internal argument between the old guard that served in the soviet army and now are back serving and the new nato trained guys. The old guard is turning the army into the old soviet army..so you have essentially a soviet vs soviet battle. The new guys want to use mobility to disrupt the numbers advantage Russia has. The old guard is winning the argument atm. Another is a post from a guy that is currently serving in Bahkmut and is talking about leadership...

iAMfish007 -
Prominent UA mil-figures are warning of the dangers of holding Bakhmut for longer.
Here's a well-known drone operator from 93rd Brigade:
Quote:

As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.
Prominent TG channel Vae Victis also comments the following: https://t. me/adbestias/6794
Quote:

"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.


The media isn't talking about it because they don't have any facts to report.

A few posts from some soldiers who claim to be involved isn't reporting. Even if these are legitimate takes and they really are involved they aren't high level enough to have all the facts.

It would be irresponsible to report this information without any ability to corroborate it. Reddit and Twitter are entertainment, not news.


MinotStateBeav
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dimitrig said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Reading on a Credible Defense forum on reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/11nolb9/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_10_2023/

One of the guys that went down to bahkmut last month says there is an internal argument between the old guard that served in the soviet army and now are back serving and the new nato trained guys. The old guard is turning the army into the old soviet army..so you have essentially a soviet vs soviet battle. The new guys want to use mobility to disrupt the numbers advantage Russia has. The old guard is winning the argument atm. Another is a post from a guy that is currently serving in Bahkmut and is talking about leadership...

iAMfish007 -
Prominent UA mil-figures are warning of the dangers of holding Bakhmut for longer.
Here's a well-known drone operator from 93rd Brigade:
Quote:

As soon as the Russians take the road to Khromovo, Bakhmut will gradually begin to transform from a fortress into a large mass grave. Then there will be no point in keeping silent about things that have been bothering you for many months. Maybe someone will see treason in them, but I will not care. Patience is running out.
In comments, he seems to imply that this is General Sirsky's idea and thinks that if Ukrainians stay for a while longer, all of the equipment will have to be left in Bakhmut as they eventually retreat under fire.
Prominent TG channel Vae Victis also comments the following: https://t. me/adbestias/6794
Quote:

"Drinking in pressure" is what happened during the entire more than six months of Bakhmut's defense. Hundreds and thousands of soldiers plunged their lives into the advancing ranks of the enemy, sacrificing their lives for the sake of holding the next landing for a few more days, weeks or months. This continues even now, only in much worse conditions than not long ago.
The enemy did not manage to cut off the last supply channel to Bakhmut as quickly as he would have liked. However, this supply channel does not look like one that can sustain the city's defenses for at least another couple of weeks - it is narrow and vulnerable to enemy artillery, which is adjusted from UAVs. How to effectively hold the defense in tough urban battles, when a medevac is stuck in the mud of early spring on a single dirt road? Is it worth it?
Our military leadership probably thinks it's worth it. I have no doubt that this is a military decision, not a political one, as some nasty tabloids wrote - for the enemy to advance further, it is necessary to overcome the water barrier and be trapped in the dense urban development of the city center and the massive northern industrial zone. In such conditions, it is possible to inflict significant losses on the enemy, and eventually force him to stop offensive actions earlier due to the depletion of reserves, which can save such cities as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Konstantinivka from the transfer of battles to their territory. An additional factor is the growing conflict within the occupying forces - yes, the bandit leader Prigozhin openly enters into conflict with the military leadership of the Russian Federation in order to increase the supply of ammunition for units of the Wagner criminal group. Due to the exhaustion of Soviet warehouses, the Russian military leadership began to more strictly ration ammunition for artillery units, and fortunately for us, the sociopath Prigozhin refuses to accept this information and introduces internal discord into the ranks of the advancing troops, believing that this is a conspiracy against him personally. This conflict has a tendency to escalate, and favorable conditions may finally be created for it to erupt. However, not everything is so smooth.
Currently, the enemy has occupied Dubovo-Vasylivka and continues its attempts to capture Bohdanivka. He realized that he will not be able to close the encirclement along the outskirts of the city so easily, so he tries to continue digging under the "lifeline", making the reach deeper and deeper, and the only channel of communication more and more vulnerable - it may even turn out that the battles on the outskirts of the Chasiv Yar will begin before the Defense Forces leave the city of Bakhmut. This can lead to catastrophic consequences - the longer the vulnerable section of the front, the greater the probability that somewhere it will not be possible to hold it and the garrison will be surrounded before our military leadership can conduct countermeasures.
Bakhmut is an important node of our defense. However, its importance is declining faster due to the fact that the city continues to be flanked. In conditions where communications are difficult, and even the evacuation of the wounded becomes too risky, the question of the effectiveness of its defense from the point of view of the loss ratio becomes more and more ambiguous. It will not be a lie to say that the situation continues to deteriorate there is an invariable tendency to gradually dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions, "deep" counterattacks that pushed the enemy far away, during which there were virtually no battles for the city. This cannot continue forever - the situation must either be radically changed by a successful counterattack with the involvement of significant reserves and the subsequent occupation of frontiers advantageous to us, or the city must finally be abandoned in order to preserve personnel.
I sincerely hope for the wisdom of our military leadership.
Another UFA soldier said only dirt roads remain to get out of Bahkmut. I think Ukraine's leaders are going to have those guys f'd. I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.


The media isn't talking about it because they don't have any facts to report.

A few posts from some soldiers who claim to be involved isn't reporting. Even if these are legitimate takes and they really are involved they aren't high level enough to have all the facts.

It would be irresponsible to report this information without any ability to corroborate it. Reddit and Twitter are entertainment, not news.



First off, you're right, it's not credible because I can't corroborate it, however, some of this stuff isn't the first I've heard. I had heard there was a disconnect between senior leadership and the on ground platoon guys weeks ago. They should have kept the old soviet guard out of the fight and let the nato trained guys take the lead.

map of the remaining area to get out
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Soldiers in Bakhmut have the time, ability and internet access to be posting on Reddit? Yeah, right.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Soldiers in Bakhmut have the time, ability and internet access to be posting on Reddit? Yeah, right.

They usually post on Telegram. And yes, in wartime, soldiers have plenty of downtime between scrimmages. They can sit in trenches or apartment blocks for hours on end. The Ukrainian side is much more prolific as the Russian regular army bans its grunts from using cellphones.
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