The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to MinotStateBeav • 9:22a, 3/12/23
MinotStateBeav said:
I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.
I think the nuance is a bit different, but the media has covered this extensively. We know that Zelensky fired Moskalyov a few weeks ago. We know that there has been a lot of discussion by Zelensky and military leadership about whether to continue to defend Bakhmut. We know that part of the reason Ukraine continues to defend Bakhmut is because it is generating a high ratio of Russian casualties compared to UFA casualties.

I think the specific discussion of old guard Soviet-trained leaders being more willing to sacrifice their men and making poor strategic and tactical decisions is unsurprising - it's exactly what we are seeing from Russia and will continue to see from Russia as this war continues. Ukraine will obviously benefit from continuing to employ a modern command and control structure and more sophisticated tactics because they aren't going to beat Russia at its own game.
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Cal88
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In reply to dimitrig • 9:29a, 3/12/23
dimitrig said:
Unit2Sucks said:
...

Both sides do a lot of lying. This "snatching people off the streets" narrative has been suggested by both sides. It is likely completely false. Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there? He might desert or, worse, actively try to get you killed.

If you want to see how the war is going I think you just need to look at the fact that it has been a year and Russia hasn't made any advances. That's how it is going.

That video U2S posted above of a forced conscription on the Russian side was the first I've heard of or seen, and I would note it's from a Donbass militia, the DPR. As well there were a lot of issues between the DPR, LPR and the regular Russian forces as the former have had to bear a disproportionate weight of the fighting, though the discrepancy has diminished since the official merger late last year.

Forced conscriptions are a much bigger problem in Ukraine, as reflected by the sheer volume of videos posted from across the country of men being forcibly gang-pressed.

Quote:
Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there?
These conscripts are kept in line once they join the ranks:



Note that this is not a CGI, or astaged video, the bully in black shirt beating up the young recruit is a well-known Ukrainian officier/militia boss with a public profile, and this video comes from his own sources, as a way to broadcast to weak-minded soldiers that they better get in line.

Nearly all the bad material on Ukrainian war conduct, like their use of chemical weapons, comes from their own sources, often from known Ukrainian military personalities.

There are also videos of Ukrainian soldiers trying to surrender who are literally shot down from behind, and some where those who were caught trying to surrender are executed - some shot execution-style, others looked like they were being burried alive.


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dimitrig
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:32a, 3/12/23
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:
Unit2Sucks said:
...

Both sides do a lot of lying. This "snatching people off the streets" narrative has been suggested by both sides. It is likely completely false. Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there? He might desert or, worse, actively try to get you killed.

If you want to see how the war is going I think you just need to look at the fact that it has been a year and Russia hasn't made any advances. That's how it is going.

That video U2S posted above of a forced conscription on the Russian side was the first I've heard of or seen, and I would note it's from a Donbass militia, the DPR. As well there were a lot of issues between the DPR, LPR and the regular Russian forces as the former have had to bear a disproportionate weight of the fighting, though the discrepancy has diminished since the official merger late last year.

Forced conscriptions are a much bigger problem in Ukraine, as reflected by the sheer volume of videos posted from across the country of men being forcibly gang-pressed.

Quote:
Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there?
These conscripts are kept in line once they join the ranks:



Note that this is not a CGI, or astaged video, the bully in black shirt beating up the young recruit is a well-known Ukrainian officier/militia boss with a public profile, and this video comes from his own sources, as a way to broadcast to weak-minded soldiers that they better get in line.

Nearly all the bad material on Ukrainian war conduct, like their use of chemical weapons, comes from their own sources, often from known Ukrainian military personalities.

There are also videos of Ukrainian soldiers trying to surrender who are literally shot down from behind, and some where those who were caught trying to surrender are executed - some shot execution-style, others looked like they were being burried alive.



If you believe all of that propaganda I have a bridge I want to sell you.


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Cal88
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In reply to dimitrig • 11:29a, 3/12/23
dimitrig said:

If you believe all of that propaganda I have a bridge I want to sell you.

If some of the most basic elements of this war completely elude you, like the fact that soldiers from the front have been posting thousands of videos from the front for the last year (and even before that from the star of the Donbass war in 2014), then you're not going to be able to have a real clue as to what is really going on.


HistoryLegends with an excellent overview of the fast-moving late stage Bakhmut situation:


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dimitrig
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:35a, 3/12/23
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:

If you believe all of that propaganda I have a bridge I want to sell you.

If some of the most basic elements of this war completely elude you, like the fact that soldiers from the front have been posting thousands of videos from the front for the last year (and even before that from the star of the Donbass war in 2014), then you're not going to be able to have a real clue as to what is really going on.


HistoryLegends with an excellent overview of the fast-moving late stage Bakhmut:




So you have the capacity to sort through thousands of videos and figure out which ones are legitimate and which ones are propaganda? You seem to select the ones that support your narrative.

I personally am skeptical of all of them and don't think they are a good source of information even if some of them are posted by actual soldiers in good faith.

I mean this about pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine videos both. Most of them are bull.

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MinotStateBeav
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:41a, 3/12/23
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:
Unit2Sucks said:
...

Both sides do a lot of lying. This "snatching people off the streets" narrative has been suggested by both sides. It is likely completely false. Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there? He might desert or, worse, actively try to get you killed.

If you want to see how the war is going I think you just need to look at the fact that it has been a year and Russia hasn't made any advances. That's how it is going.

That video U2S posted above of a forced conscription on the Russian side was the first I've heard of or seen, and I would note it's from a Donbass militia, the DPR. As well there were a lot of issues between the DPR, LPR and the regular Russian forces as the former have had to bear a disproportionate weight of the fighting, though the discrepancy has diminished since the official merger late last year.

Forced conscriptions are a much bigger problem in Ukraine, as reflected by the sheer volume of videos posted from across the country of men being forcibly gang-pressed.

Quote:
Do you really want a guy fighting in your unit that doesn't want to be there?
These conscripts are kept in line once they join the ranks:



Note that this is not a CGI, or astaged video, the bully in black shirt beating up the young recruit is a well-known Ukrainian officier/militia boss with a public profile, and this video comes from his own sources, as a way to broadcast to weak-minded soldiers that they better get in line.

Nearly all the bad material on Ukrainian war conduct, like their use of chemical weapons, comes from their own sources, often from known Ukrainian military personalities.

There are also videos of Ukrainian soldiers trying to surrender who are literally shot down from behind, and some where those who were caught trying to surrender are executed - some shot execution-style, others looked like they were being burried alive.


Article here about it, Ukraine is launching investigation, it was a conscript beaten by trainer apparently.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/03/12/7393070/
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Cal88
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In reply to dimitrig • 12:08p, 3/12/23
dimitrig said:
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:

If you believe all of that propaganda I have a bridge I want to sell you.

If some of the most basic elements of this war completely elude you, like the fact that soldiers from the front have been posting thousands of videos from the front for the last year (and even before that from the star of the Donbass war in 2014), then you're not going to be able to have a real clue as to what is really going on.


HistoryLegends with an excellent overview of the fast-moving late stage Bakhmut:




So you have the capacity to sort through thousands of videos and figure out which ones are legitimate and which ones are propaganda? You seem to select the ones that support your narrative.

I personally am skeptical of all of them and don't think they are a good source of information even if some of them are posted by actual soldiers in good faith.

I mean this about pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine videos both. Most of them are bull.

The great majority of these videos fall under that category of posts by actual soldiers in good faith, or sometimes posted as braggadocio, but even then those videos are real, and informative. That is the nature of a conflict taking place in '23 with soldiers on cellphones.

Yes perhaps you can't always extrapolate from one or two videos that might be anecdotal in nature or only provide a granular picture, but when you have a readily identifiable pattern, as in dozens of videos of men forcibly conscripted off of Ukrainian city streets, you can easily form a big picture.

As well in the context of a relatively small, localized battle like Bakhmut, a town smaller than Daly City, you can get a real picture of what is going on on that front from a relatively small sample of candid videos. For example, when a Ukrainian soldier states that "they are being hunted down like bunnies", it dispels the notion that Russians have been dying at 5 to 1 or 10 to 1 ratios, as affirmed in a recent BBC article.
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Cal88
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 12:29p, 3/12/23
Unit2Sucks said:
MinotStateBeav said:
I was shocked reading some of this stuff, because the media isn't talking about this at all.
I think the nuance is a bit different, but the media has covered this extensively. We know that Zelensky fired Moskalyov a few weeks ago. We know that there has been a lot of discussion by Zelensky and military leadership about whether to continue to defend Bakhmut. We know that part of the reason Ukraine continues to defend Bakhmut is because it is generating a high ratio of Russian casualties compared to UFA casualties.

I think the specific discussion of old guard Soviet-trained leaders being more willing to sacrifice their men and making poor strategic and tactical decisions is unsurprising - it's exactly what we are seeing from Russia and will continue to see from Russia as this war continues. Ukraine will obviously benefit from continuing to employ a modern command and control structure and more sophisticated tactics because they aren't going to beat Russia at its own game.

I love how you use the presidential "we" here, as if your statements are established universal truths...

Ukrainian propaganda is filled with projections, like the notion that they have better trained or equipped troops, or they have had a favorable kill ratio in Bakhmut, which is a complete reversal of the truth as narrated by their grunts in many videos, or more serious reports by embedded officers like the Australian volunteer I've recently posted here.

If Ukraine was really scoring 5 to 1 or even 10 to 1 kills in Bakhmut, then:
-why would they ever decide to leave??
-and if they could inflict such a high casualty rate on the Russians, how could they possibly be pushed back?
-At these alleged killed ratios, they would have the manpower to sustain any volume of Russian "human waves", given that Ukraine has up to 50,000 soldiers stationed in or near the Bakhmut front.

They could have finished the entire invading Russian army, and then some, with these 50k soldiers alone, if the reports of great kill ratios for Ukraine were really true...

What we have instead is videos of disorganized Ukrainian conscripts trudging through sticky, deep muddy roads under Russian artillery fire.

The Russians have shaped the frontlines of this battle in order to extract a maximum amount of damage in this battle with a minimum of losses, through a wide pincer action that extends over long stretches of the main paved roads where all heavy equipment has to go through, which makes them easy targets for heavy and light artillery:



The very shape of the frontlines alone gives you a good indication of what is really going on there, and which side has been shaping the battle and having the upper hand.
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movielover
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12:45p, 3/12/23
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 1:36p, 3/12/23
movielover said:

Michael Hudson is arguably the most brilliant economist alive, he combines his professional experience working at the highest circles for Chase Manhattan, David Rockefeller, the oil industry in the early days of the Petrodollar with a sharp acumen and a deep understanding of the nature of debt and monetary policy.

This sets him apart from ideologically-driven left leaning economists like Piketty, whose theories are hampered by his lack of real-life understanding of the inner workings of the monetary system.



Hudson's work on debt has been most widely propagated by the late David Graeber's best seller, Debt the First 5000 Years. Graeber widely credits Hudson for providing him the framework for that book.



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Unit2Sucks
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1:53p, 3/12/23
UK MOD has been posting a daily brief from their intelligence for public consumption on twitter. This is pretty consistent with other non-Kremlin sources but is packaged in a way that makes it easy to consume.

The biggest imbalance in this war isn't that Russia has superior artillery, it's that they don't count their losses. Like a zombie movie, they are willing to send waves of minorities from the outer territories to their deaths without significantly impacting the constituents that have any chance of making Putin's life difficult. So while we can speculate or discuss how many Russians and Ukrainians are dying in Bakhmut and elsewhere (far too many on both sides), Putin has the "luxury" of not giving any f9cks as to how many Russians are dying. There is no reason to believe that will change any time soon. Imagine a game of chess where one side has unlimited pawns and is happy to trade 3-7 of his own for each one of yours. That's where we are now and apparently enough military brass in Ukraine still think it's worth that trade to stay in Bakhmut. At some point I imagine that calculus will change and Bakhmut will fall. Whether that happens due to a collapse or otherwise remains to be seen.








Also worth noting on the propaganda front, that even Russia's chief propagandist (Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for their foreign ministry) has begun to lament that Putin no longer has the unified control over the "information space" that they were able to establish under the soviet regime. She says that this is the result infighting among the elites.

Obviously with a lot of the propaganda being diffused to bloggers and other semi-captive sources (which are relied upon by the pro-Putin crowd in this thread) it still able to deliver the firehose of falsehoods, but without the central command that they used to enjoy.

She seems to particularly be concerned about the fact that there is no way for Putin to regain control. Obviously the fact that this war effort has been a debacle for the Kremlin makes this lack of centralized control over propaganda even more challenging. The coverage of this discussion is all in Russian but here's a link to a google translated article. The fact that Zakharova is talking about this stuff publicly should tell you all you need to know about how things are really going for Russia, despite the attempts by the shameless pro-Putin crowd to pretend that this war effort is going to plan.

And speaking of complaints about mobilization, CNN reporting on Russian wives and mothers complaining about sending their men to be slaughtered. Again, this is consistent with other reporting and as credible as any complaints coming from Ukraine. This war shouldn't be happening and its hard to blame anyone who doesn't want any part of it. Only Putin can decide to stop this dumb war of naked aggression but his supporters, like those on this thread, continue to pretend like there is something else going on.

Quote:
In a video shared by the independent Russian Telegram channel SOTA, the women said their loved ones had been "forced to join assault groups" at the beginning of March despite having just four days training since their mobilization in September.

The video shows the women holding a sign in Russian that reads, "580 Separate Howitzer Artillery Division," dated March 11, 2023.

"My husband… is located on the line of contact with the enemy," says one woman in the recording.

"Our mobilized [men] are being sent like lambs to the slaughter to storm fortified areas five at a time, against 100 heavily armed enemy men," she continued.

"They are prepared to serve their homeland but according to the specialization they've trained for, not as stormtroopers. We ask that you pull back our guys from the line of contact and provide the artillerymen with artillery and ammunition."

CNN could not independently verify the claims made by the group of women in the video.
Russia's move to send hundreds of thousands to fight on the battlefields of Ukraine has generated dissent and protest and prompted many Russians young men in particular to flee the country.

"We ran away from Russia because we want to live," one man, who asked not to be identified to protect loved ones left behind, previously told CNN. "We are afraid that we can be sent to Ukraine."

Families of drafted Russian men have criticized the mobilization, saying it is beset by problems such as discipline issues and lack of leadership from mid-ranking officers, non-existent training as well as logistical difficulties like insufficient uniforms, poor food and a lack of medical suppl

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sycasey
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:21p, 3/12/23
Cal88 said:
I love how you use the presidential "we" here, as if your statements are established universal truths...
I know, it's so annoying when people do that.
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movielover
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2:36p, 3/12/23
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4:08p, 3/12/23


Propaganda?
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to movielover • 4:27p, 3/12/23
movielover said:

Propaganda?
Are you really that naive? I don't know which Russian state media runs that twitter but it's pretty obvious that whatever it it, it's not a disinterested or even-handed observer.

That account has literally all of the trappings of Russian propaganda described in the article I posted a few weeks ago.

It's also an account with no credibility, having predicted more than 5 weeks ago that Bakhmut would fall within days.



There are lots of disgusting videos that you could share.

You could share the video of Russian military executing a Ukrainian POW. But since you support Putin or have fallen completely captive to his propaganda, you won't.

You could share video of Wagner mercs beating their commander with shovels.

You could share video of Wagner executing defectors with sledgehammers.

You could share stories from a Wagner defect about the atrociities he saw and experienced during his time with them.

But you don't. You choose only to share videos and POVs from obvious Russian propaganda. I get that you are unable to discern the credibility of sources, but if you seriously think you are doing something other than amplifying propaganda, calling you a useful idiot would be too charitable.
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dimitrig
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 4:30p, 3/12/23
Unit2Sucks said:
movielover said:

Propaganda?
Are you really that naive? I don't know which Russian state media runs that twitter but it's pretty obvious that whatever it it, it's not a disinterested or even-handed observer.

That account has literally all of the trappings of Russian propaganda described in the article I posted a few weeks ago.

It's also an account with no credibility, having predicted more than 5 weeks ago that Bakhmut would fall within days.



There are lots of disgusting videos that you could share.

You could share the video of Russian military executing a Ukrainian POW. But since you support Putin or have fallen completely captive to his propaganda, you won't.

You could share video of Wagner mercs beating their commander with shovels.

You could share video of Wagner executing defectors with sledgehammers.

You could share stories from a Wagner defect about the atrociities he saw and experienced during his time with them.

But you don't. You choose only to share videos and POVs from obvious Russian propaganda. I get that you are unable to discern the credibility of sources, but if you seriously think you are doing something other than amplifying propaganda, calling you a useful idiot would be too charitable.


No kidding. In that video there is no context. Maybe the guy was stealing narcotics from the medics to get high. If the worst thing happening is that someone (who? where? when? why?) got taped to a pole then that means you got nothing.
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movielover
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10:30p, 3/12/23
So much for "propaganda" as a defense to Ukraine plucking men off street corners and ski resorts.

The Economist: Ukraine finds stepping up mobilisation is not so easy

Military recruiters are accused of rough tactics as they try to boost the head count

"...Mr Kubay's case was an extreme, but far from isolated, incident. Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter: footage of military officials snooping around on the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers may be lurking...."

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy

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movielover
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11:47p, 3/12/23
The Kiev Independent: Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: 'Our troops are not being protected'
by Igor Kossov
March 5, 2023

KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Donetsk Oblast "Russia's relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. ...

"During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information....

[Two soldiers interviews both in their 40s.]

"All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. "The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us," says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. "A month ago, there were literally 150 of us."

"When you go out to the position, it's not even a 50/50 chance that you'll come out of there (alive)," says the older Serhiy. "It's more like 30/70." ..."

"Illia, a mortarman with the 3017th unit of Ukraine's National Guard offers a simple explanation for the lack of indirect support fire.

"When we get ammo, we get 10 shells per day, 120 millimeter shells," Illia says. "That's enough for one minute of work." ... [1930s shells]

" "We were promised that we wouldn't be sent to the zero line right away, that at first we'd be sent to the second or third line," he continues. "And then we came here in the middle of the night and they immediately sent us to Bakhmut." "

https://kyivindependent.com/home
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movielover
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12:27a, 3/13/23
At first blush, Michael Kofman appears to be an objective Russian expert. He believes Russia's initial invasion was a debacle. On-the-ground research. Acknowledges the Ukrainian ammo "diet".

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dimitrig
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:47a, 3/13/23
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:
Cal88 said:
dimitrig said:

If you believe all of that propaganda I have a bridge I want to sell you.

If some of the most basic elements of this war completely elude you, like the fact that soldiers from the front have been posting thousands of videos from the front for the last year (and even before that from the star of the Donbass war in 2014), then you're not going to be able to have a real clue as to what is really going on.


HistoryLegends with an excellent overview of the fast-moving late stage Bakhmut:




So you have the capacity to sort through thousands of videos and figure out which ones are legitimate and which ones are propaganda? You seem to select the ones that support your narrative.

I personally am skeptical of all of them and don't think they are a good source of information even if some of them are posted by actual soldiers in good faith.

I mean this about pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine videos both. Most of them are bull.

The great majority of these videos fall under that category of posts by actual soldiers in good faith, or sometimes posted as braggadocio, but even then those videos are real, and informative. That is the nature of a conflict taking place in '23 with soldiers on cellphones.

Yes perhaps you can't always extrapolate from one or two videos that might be anecdotal in nature or only provide a granular picture, but when you have a readily identifiable pattern, as in dozens of videos of men forcibly conscripted off of Ukrainian city streets, you can easily form a big picture.

As well in the context of a relatively small, localized battle like Bakhmut, a town smaller than Daly City, you can get a real picture of what is going on on that front from a relatively small sample of candid videos. For example, when a Ukrainian soldier states that "they are being hunted down like bunnies", it dispels the notion that Russians have been dying at 5 to 1 or 10 to 1 ratios, as affirmed in a recent BBC article.

The plural of anecdote isn't data.

Part of the strategy for distributing propaganda is to post lots of false information. It is not good practice to look for patterns in a data set that is full of bogus data.

Both Russia and Ukraine have a lot of incentive to disseminate a lot of false information and they do so.

This forum would be a lot more interesting to read without wading through this junk.





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chazzed
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1:50p, 3/13/23
Americans' Favorable Rating of Russia Sinks to New Low of 9%:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/471872/americans-favorable-rating-russia-sinks-new-low.aspx
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In reply to movielover • 4:14p, 3/13/23
movielover said:
The Kiev Independent: Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: 'Our troops are not being protected'
by Igor Kossov
March 5, 2023

KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Donetsk Oblast "Russia's relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. ...

"During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information....

[Two soldiers interviews both in their 40s.]

"All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. "The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us," says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. "A month ago, there were literally 150 of us."

"When you go out to the position, it's not even a 50/50 chance that you'll come out of there (alive)," says the older Serhiy. "It's more like 30/70." ..."

"Illia, a mortarman with the 3017th unit of Ukraine's National Guard offers a simple explanation for the lack of indirect support fire.

"When we get ammo, we get 10 shells per day, 120 millimeter shells," Illia says. "That's enough for one minute of work." ... [1930s shells]

" "We were promised that we wouldn't be sent to the zero line right away, that at first we'd be sent to the second or third line," he continues. "And then we came here in the middle of the night and they immediately sent us to Bakhmut." "

https://kyivindependent.com/home


The Kiev Independent has other writers that seem more inclined to "the Ukraine view", but still professional with nods to both sides.

It's possible right now that Ukraine is preparing for their Spring offensive, which would explain the (severe) lack of ammo.

One talking head said Ukraine has 20 - 30,000 men outside the country "training", and a spring offensive likely in the south.

The Kiev Independent article appears to corroborate Cal88s numerous posts of men being kidnapped off of public streets. Unless they're also propagandists.
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Cal88
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5:40p, 3/13/23
^ Don't they know that the plural of anecdote isn't data?!?
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dimitrig
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In reply to movielover • 8:06p, 3/13/23
movielover said:
movielover said:
The Kiev Independent: Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: 'Our troops are not being protected'
by Igor Kossov
March 5, 2023

KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Donetsk Oblast "Russia's relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. ...

"During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information....

[Two soldiers interviews both in their 40s.]

"All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. "The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us," says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. "A month ago, there were literally 150 of us."

"When you go out to the position, it's not even a 50/50 chance that you'll come out of there (alive)," says the older Serhiy. "It's more like 30/70." ..."

"Illia, a mortarman with the 3017th unit of Ukraine's National Guard offers a simple explanation for the lack of indirect support fire.

"When we get ammo, we get 10 shells per day, 120 millimeter shells," Illia says. "That's enough for one minute of work." ... [1930s shells]

" "We were promised that we wouldn't be sent to the zero line right away, that at first we'd be sent to the second or third line," he continues. "And then we came here in the middle of the night and they immediately sent us to Bakhmut." "

https://kyivindependent.com/home


The Kiev Independent has other writers that seem more inclined to "the Ukraine view", but still professional with nods to both sides.

It's possible right now that Ukraine is preparing for their Spring offensive, which would explain the (severe) lack of ammo.

One talking head said Ukraine has 20 - 30,000 men outside the country "training", and a spring offensive likely in the south.

The Kiev Independent article appears to corroborate Cal88s numerous posts of men being kidnapped off of public streets. Unless they're also propagandists.


This article says absolutely nothing about men being kidnapped off of public streets.

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movielover
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In reply to dimitrig • 8:15p, 3/13/23
Different article.

The Economist: Ukraine finds stepping up mobilisation is not so easy

"...Mr Kubay's case was an extreme, but far from isolated, incident. Ukraine has visibly stepped up mobilisation activities in the first two months of this year. There have been reports of draft notices issued (and sometimes violently enforced) at military funerals in Lviv, checkpoints in Kharkiv, shopping centres in Kyiv and on street corners in Odessa. Popular ski resorts lie deserted despite the first proper snows of the winter: footage of military officials snooping around on the slopes was enough to keep the crowds away. In every town and city across the country social-media channels share information about where recruitment officers may be lurking...."

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy
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Cal88
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7:47a, 3/14/23
^ Reality is catching up with the MSM, they can no longer ignore the 450,000 casualties that Ukraine has taken in a year of war.

So we now have reports like this WaPo article today that are starting to get closer to the facts on the ground:



Some shocking excerpts from the WaPo article about Ukraine's military and the reality on the ground:

"Ukraine's military has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield"

"Ukraine is suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs."

"There are only a few soldiers with combat experience. Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded."

"We don't have the people or weapons"

"newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms."

"severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s."

"You're on the front line. They're coming toward you, and there's nothing to shoot with."

"After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded."

"Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years."

"men across the country have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street."


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Unit2Sucks
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8:08a, 3/14/23
Increasingly looking like Russia MOD is purposefully sacrificing Wagner in Bakhmut with the intent of destroying Prigozhin or greatly lessen his influence. They are still likely to take Bakhmut soon, but at what cost to their future prospects of actually taking meaningful territory?

Given that Prigozhin has been criticizing the MOD more and more, it starts to make sense. They've stopped him from recruiting in prisons and have been limiting his ammunition supply. Most of Russia's minimal gains in the last 6+ months have been driven by Wagner and they have taken umbrage with his glory-seeking.

We've heard how the people pushing for Ukraine to stay in Bakhmut are motivated by the opportunity to inflict disproportionate losses on Russian forces, and that is hitting Wagner hard.

And now Aleksey Mukhin, a member of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club is criticizing Prigozhin for pursuing political goals in Bakhmut at the expense of their military goals and endangering Wagner forces. Corrupt Russian leadership is so messed up at this point that no one should be surprised to see them cut off their nose to spite their face.






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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:10a, 3/14/23
Jude Napolitano today has a guest, and they assert that while the US MSM has downplayed / buried the Sy Hersh revelations, they've taken root in Germany.

This is reportedly why the recent fabrication of the unlikely story of 4 men on a sailboat entering the Black Sea, and attacking ND 1 and 2.

Colonel Douglass McGregor estimates:

Ukraine - Up to 200K KIA
Russia - approx 20K-25K KIA and another 60K casualties

Notes the risks if Ukraine tries to strike Crimea, and Americans suit up as contractors to fly F16s, does Russia strike military locations in Poland and elsewhere?
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dimitrig
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 10:47a, 3/14/23
Unit2Sucks said:
Increasingly looking like Russia MOD is purposefully sacrificing Wagner in Bakhmut with the intent of destroying Prigozhin or greatly lessen his influence. They are still likely to take Bakhmut soon, but at what cost to their future prospects of actually taking meaningful territory?

Given that Prigozhin has been criticizing the MOD more and more, it starts to make sense. They've stopped him from recruiting in prisons and have been limiting his ammunition supply. Most of Russia's minimal gains in the last 6+ months have been driven by Wagner and they have taken umbrage with his glory-seeking.

We've heard how the people pushing for Ukraine to stay in Bakhmut are motivated by the opportunity to inflict disproportionate losses on Russian forces, and that is hitting Wagner hard.

And now Aleksey Mukhin, a member of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club is criticizing Prigozhin for pursuing political goals in Bakhmut at the expense of their military goals and endangering Wagner forces. Corrupt Russian leadership is so messed up at this point that no one should be surprised to see them cut off their nose to spite their face.







Something I have been wondering about with respect to Wagner....

They are mercenaries, right? They are just fighting for a paycheck. They don't have any particular loyalty to Russia.

What if they were offered a larger paycheck to stop fighting or even to fight for Ukraine?




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Cal88
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 11:12a, 3/14/23
Unit2Sucks said:
Increasingly looking like Russia MOD is purposefully sacrificing Wagner in Bakhmut with the intent of destroying Prigozhin or greatly lessen his influence. They are still likely to take Bakhmut soon, but at what cost to their future prospects of actually taking meaningful territory?

Given that Prigozhin has been criticizing the MOD more and more, it starts to make sense. They've stopped him from recruiting in prisons and have been limiting his ammunition supply. Most of Russia's minimal gains in the last 6+ months have been driven by Wagner and they have taken umbrage with his glory-seeking.

We've heard how the people pushing for Ukraine to stay in Bakhmut are motivated by the opportunity to inflict disproportionate losses on Russian forces, and that is hitting Wagner hard.

And now Aleksey Mukhin, a member of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club is criticizing Prigozhin for pursuing political goals in Bakhmut at the expense of their military goals and endangering Wagner forces. Corrupt Russian leadership is so messed up at this point that no one should be surprised to see them cut off their nose to spite their face.
...

"Wagner dying out!" is completely false, right up there with your "Putin poisoned Kadyrov" post last week:

Quote:
Unit2Sucks said:

In other news, it looks like Putin poisoned his erstwhile BFF Kadyrov. Rumor has it that his palace in Grozny doesn't have any functioning windows so defenestration wasn't an option. Another war criminal colleague ally of his in Chechnya was poisoned by Putin last month as well.

I'm sure someone will share some propaganda showing that Kadyrov wasn't really poisoned and is doing just fine, but there is a lot of solid reporting that Kadyrov went to the UAE for emergency healthcare because he doesn't trust Russian doctors.

Kadyrov was meeting with Putin just a few days ago, the guy who, according to your reliable sources, happened to poison him last week!

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/03/13/watch-no-signs-of-kidney-poisoning-as-healthy-looking-chechen-leader-kadyrov-reports-to-putin-in-moscow/

Your assessment of the Wagner Group above is just as ridiculous as the bold statement you've made above Kadyrov being poisoned by Putin last week, it's low-grade wartime propaganda targeted at a gullible (but unfortunately large) western audience.

Prigozhin has been prancing around all over Bakhmut lately, being his usual conceited former gopnik self. The Wagner losses have been a fraction of Ukrainian losses, partly because Ukraine has been throwing into the Bakhmut cauldron untrained under-equipped disorganized conscripts by the tens of thousands. In fact this looks like Prigozhin's main complaint now:



I wouldn't have posted such a tweet here because it's in bad taste, reflecting the dubious moral character of Prigozhin, but in the context of U2S' claim above it's a pretty informative piece as to where Wagner and its leader stand today.

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Cal88
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In reply to dimitrig • 11:23a, 3/14/23
dimitrig said:

Something I have been wondering about with respect to Wagner....

They are mercenaries, right? They are just fighting for a paycheck. They don't have any particular loyalty to Russia.

What if they were offered a larger paycheck to stop fighting or even to fight for Ukraine?

They've essentially become an elite, well-managed Russian Marines-type division, used for difficult assignments like urban combat, in which they've become specialists. They've had a lot of convicts, but the majority of them are Russian army vets. Wagner is also integrated within the Russian army command structure, though they are given near-complete tactical autonomy on the conduct of their missions.

So they're not quite mercs who are solely in it for the money, they have high morale and esprit de corps and are also patriots. There definitely is a rivalry between them and part of the Russian military establishment, which Prigozhin plays up using his high public profile.
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to dimitrig • 11:33a, 3/14/23
dimitrig said:
Unit2Sucks said:
Increasingly looking like Russia MOD is purposefully sacrificing Wagner in Bakhmut with the intent of destroying Prigozhin or greatly lessen his influence. They are still likely to take Bakhmut soon, but at what cost to their future prospects of actually taking meaningful territory?

Given that Prigozhin has been criticizing the MOD more and more, it starts to make sense. They've stopped him from recruiting in prisons and have been limiting his ammunition supply. Most of Russia's minimal gains in the last 6+ months have been driven by Wagner and they have taken umbrage with his glory-seeking.

We've heard how the people pushing for Ukraine to stay in Bakhmut are motivated by the opportunity to inflict disproportionate losses on Russian forces, and that is hitting Wagner hard.

And now Aleksey Mukhin, a member of the Kremlin-linked Valdai Discussion Club is criticizing Prigozhin for pursuing political goals in Bakhmut at the expense of their military goals and endangering Wagner forces. Corrupt Russian leadership is so messed up at this point that no one should be surprised to see them cut off their nose to spite their face.







Something I have been wondering about with respect to Wagner....

They are mercenaries, right? They are just fighting for a paycheck. They don't have any particular loyalty to Russia.

What if they were offered a larger paycheck to stop fighting or even to fight for Ukraine?
Yes and no. I don't know all of the details but the relationship between Prigozhin and the Russian military is not typical or like the mercs you are thinking about. Russia allows Wagner to film videos where they murder defectors from Wagner with sledgehammers - do you really think they're going to let someone come in and outbid Wagner for their services?

It's more like an alternative channel for Russian warfighting which gives some flexibility, has different training and different long-term liabilities (pension or whatever - for the few grunts who actually survive). They are still recruiting Russians for this dumb war but they source their mobiks through different channels. The official military has conscription whereas Wagner has sourced a lot of grunts from the prison system (6 months service and you get out of jail free). As I noted recently, Russia is no longer letting them do that, so now Prigozhin says he's going to recruit from gyms lol.

The thing that makes this so weird is that Prigozhin and Putin have had a good relationship historically and that was the basis for Wagner's influence, but the Kremlin and Prigozhin have increasingly been at odds lately. It's hard to imagine that this infighting can continue without someone accidentally falling out of a window or being poisoned soon.
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 12:18p, 3/14/23
movielover said:
Jude Napolitano today has a guest, and they assert that while the US MSM has downplayed / buried the Sy Hersh revelations, they've taken root in Germany.

This is reportedly why the recent fabrication of the unlikely story of 4 men on a sailboat entering the Black Sea, and attacking ND 1 and 2.

Colonel Douglass McGregor estimates:

Ukraine - Up to 200K KIA
Russia - approx 20K-25K KIA and another 60K casualties

Notes the risks if Ukraine tries to strike Crimea, and Americans suit up as contractors to fly F16s, does Russia strike military locations in Poland and elsewhere?

Hey Movielover, stop your Kremlin propaganda and get your story straight! It wasn't 4 guys on a sailboat, it was 5, with a woman to boot!!!

Must have been cramped on that barge with half a ton of explosives and the full complement of equipment necessary to sustain a series of 80m dives...

F-16s are off the table, at least right now, as they would lead to the Russians hitting their support bases in Poland. However Ukraine will be getting two dozen very useful Mig-29s from Poland soon, which is more jet fighters than they have operable right now.



In related aviation news, Russia apparently took down a $30M USAF RQ-9 Reaper drone flying south of Crimea:

https://www.eucom.mil/pressrelease/42314/russian-aircraft-collides-into-us-unmanned-system-in-international-waters


Quote:
Russian aircraft collides into US unmanned system in international waters
Two Russian Su-27 aircraft conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept with a U.S. Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft that was operating within international airspace over the Black Sea


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Big C
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In reply to movielover • 1:46p, 3/14/23
movielover said:
Jude Napolitano today has a guest, and they assert that while the US MSM has downplayed / buried the Sy Hersh revelations, they've taken root in Germany.

This is reportedly why the recent fabrication of the unlikely story of 4 men on a sailboat entering the Black Sea, and attacking ND 1 and 2.

Colonel Douglass McGregor estimates:

Ukraine - Up to 200K KIA
Russia - approx 20K-25K KIA and another 60K casualties

Notes the risks if Ukraine tries to strike Crimea, and Americans suit up as contractors to fly F16s, does Russia strike military locations in Poland and elsewhere?

My kid mentioned to me yesterday that he doesn't really follow the war in Ukraine much anymore ("news fatigue" after one year+). But now we might be getting to a dangerous point, where we feel we need to up the ante and help Ukraine in ways we were reluctant to before.

I get that we want to help Ukraine. It's the right thing to do, plus people like Putin should be discouraged, if not outright thwarted. However, the most important factor is that this war remains contained.

Very unfortunate situation with no winners.

EDIT: And now we got this Russian Fighter Jet / US Drone dust up... this thing's not headed in the right direction.
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:57p, 3/14/23
You're a poor propagandist Cal88, mentioning positive developments for Ukraine. No vodka for you tonight.
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