The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Unit2Sucks
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golden sloth said:

How many days has it been since we first started hearing 'Bakhmut is a few days away from being captured'? I'm thinking around 120+.

You're being generous - see below.

At this point there is so much disinformation about Bakhmut (from all sides) that it's become impossible to guess what has happened and what will happen. About the only thing we know is that the war won't end after Bakhmut, regardless of what happens there. We will see a change in the fronts and a small shift in power, but that's about it.

If Russia's sum total advance from their recent "offensive" is no longer having to sacrifice thousands or tens of thousands of men to the meat grinder in Bakhmut, that's not exactly a win. There is far more riding on Ukraine's upcoming offensive than anything Russia does because if that offensive fails, it will be difficult for Ukraine to maintain support. Because Russia doesn't count its losses and Putin/Kremlin have no concern for how embarrassing this debacle has become for them, there doesn't seem to be any reason why Russia will stop shooting for pyrrhic victories.

And of course we will continue to see vast amounts of disinformation by people who are invested for whatever reason in amplifying Kremlin propaganda, despite being proven wrong time and time again.


Cal88
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Your tweet above shows that Bakhmut had been encircled on 3 sides with access roads getting gradually more constricted all the way back in October, almost 6 months ago. Russia had been in a favorable position there since then, essentially fighting downhill having had the city srrounded, while Ukraine kept doubling down because Bakhmut, in addition to being a strategic hub, became an important political symbol. So the Russians were happy to extend this situation as long as possible, while Ukraine kept doubling down.

Bakhmut was not so much a Russian pyrrhic victory as a Ukrainian pyrrhic defeat, they've lost somewhere around 40,000 troops so far trying to hold on to the city, all for nought.





Ukraine still has a fortified position within Bakhmut, in the SW sector,which is a large block of apartment towers that provides a good defensive advantage, they will try to cling on to that quarter while the rest of their remaining Bakhmut areas (mostly low-rise housing) are going to be overrun in the next couple of weeks.

My guess is that the timing of the end of the Bakhmut campaign for Russia is meant to allow them to reposition their forces to prepare for the end of the mud season in a few weeks and the planned Ukrainian Spring offensive. They might well have let that campaign linger until then.
sycasey
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The Russia stans have to keep talking about Bakhmut because it's the closest thing to a win they have had in months (though as of now, still not exactly a win).
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

The Russia stans have to keep talking about Bakhmut because it's the closest thing to a win they have had in months (though as of now, still not exactly a win).
Russia and its proponents count lots of losses as wins because there is a fundamental asymmetry at play. Russia's aim is to inflict damage on Ukraine and that's exactly what they've done with Bakhmut. If their aim was to minimize Russian losses or make advancements or other typical goals that militaries with strategy and competent command and control structures have, Bakhmut, like just about every other offensive element in the past 12 months, has been a massive disaster. Russia has expended wave after wave of soldiers and Wagner mercs with virtually no strategic benefit apart from the killing of UFA forces, which by most non-Kremlin accounts appears to be in UFA's favor. Of course from Russia's perspective, their own losses don't count. The world sees 3 to 1 or better in UFA's favor and Russia calls that a win because the 3 don't count.

And since this thread has long devolved into useful idiots sharing propaganda and conspiracy theories, here's one on the Tatarsky bombing that would support this being a typical liquidation of a political enemy by the Kremlin. Similar theories abound for that girl who was carbombed last year under similar circumstances. None of this fits within Ukraine's MO and there is no risk reward to justify it, so I'm extremely skeptical of any claims about Ukraine's involvement.






etc. read more if you are interested.

Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

sycasey said:

The Russia stans have to keep talking about Bakhmut because it's the closest thing to a win they have had in months (though as of now, still not exactly a win).
Russia and its proponents count lots of losses as wins because there is a fundamental asymmetry at play. Russia's aim is to inflict damage on Ukraine and that's exactly what they've done with Bakhmut. If their aim was to minimize Russian losses or make advancements or other typical goals that militaries with strategy and competent command and control structures have, Bakhmut, like just about every other offensive element in the past 12 months, has been a massive disaster. Russia has expended wave after wave of soldiers and Wagner mercs with virtually no strategic benefit apart from the killing of UFA forces, which by most non-Kremlin accounts appears to be in UFA's favor. Of course from Russia's perspective, their own losses don't count. The world sees 3 to 1 or better in UFA's favor and Russia calls that a win because the 3 don't count.

You're now speaking for "the world"? That's a bit presumptuous, to say the least.

You're only flipping the narrative here.

Bakhmut was surrounded on 3 sides, with reinforcement roads being under fire, and the Russians using far more firepower to flatten Ukrainian positions from higher positions surrounding the city. They also attacked mostly at night, because most Ukrainians troops didn't have night vision equipment. The Wagner MO was to concentrate forces and focus on a small area up to 10 to 1, overwhelm frontline defenses then keep pushing on before Ukraine consolidates the next line of defense. This explains the long pattern of small and steady Russian advances into Bakhmut.

Quote:

And since this thread has long devolved into useful idiots sharing propaganda and conspiracy theories, here's one on the Tatarsky bombing that would support this being a typical liquidation of a political enemy by the Kremlin. Similar theories abound for that girl who was carbombed last year under similar circumstances. None of this fits within Ukraine's MO and there is no risk reward to justify it, so I'm extremely skeptical of any claims about Ukraine's involvement.
That's ridiculous, if the Russian officials didn't like Tatarsky or wanted him to stop, they would have just told him so, or had him arrested, as opposed to bombing a St Petersburg restaurant. This is even more stupid than believing that the Russians bombed their own pipelines.

"That girl who got carbombed" was on an official Ukrainian kill list, and when she was killed, her file was gleefully marked "liquidated". The Russian authorities had no reasons to kill her, she was a well-spoken polyglot, and a very good representative of Russia.

This is on the level of your tales of Putin having poisoned Kadyrov, and Kadyrov escaping to Dubai. It's low-grade James Bond villain-level propaganda for the dumbest elements among the NATO warmongers.
golden sloth
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Unit2Sucks said:

sycasey said:

The Russia stans have to keep talking about Bakhmut because it's the closest thing to a win they have had in months (though as of now, still not exactly a win).
Russia and its proponents count lots of losses as wins because there is a fundamental asymmetry at play. Russia's aim is to inflict damage on Ukraine and that's exactly what they've done with Bakhmut. If their aim was to minimize Russian losses or make advancements or other typical goals that militaries with strategy and competent command and control structures have, Bakhmut, like just about every other offensive element in the past 12 months, has been a massive disaster. Russia has expended wave after wave of soldiers and Wagner mercs with virtually no strategic benefit apart from the killing of UFA forces, which by most non-Kremlin accounts appears to be in UFA's favor. Of course from Russia's perspective, their own losses don't count. The world sees 3 to 1 or better in UFA's favor and Russia calls that a win because the 3 don't count.

And since this thread has long devolved into useful idiots sharing propaganda and conspiracy theories, here's one on the Tatarsky bombing that would support this being a typical liquidation of a political enemy by the Kremlin. Similar theories abound for that girl who was carbombed last year under similar circumstances. None of this fits within Ukraine's MO and there is no risk reward to justify it, so I'm extremely skeptical of any claims about Ukraine's involvement.






etc. read more if you are interested.




I love how everyone sees the issues with the russian military and their struggles and their losses, then the russian megaphones take the negative facts about Russia and incorrectly accuse Ukraine of them.
MinotStateBeav
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

sycasey said:

The Russia stans have to keep talking about Bakhmut because it's the closest thing to a win they have had in months (though as of now, still not exactly a win).
Russia and its proponents count lots of losses as wins because there is a fundamental asymmetry at play. Russia's aim is to inflict damage on Ukraine and that's exactly what they've done with Bakhmut. If their aim was to minimize Russian losses or make advancements or other typical goals that militaries with strategy and competent command and control structures have, Bakhmut, like just about every other offensive element in the past 12 months, has been a massive disaster. Russia has expended wave after wave of soldiers and Wagner mercs with virtually no strategic benefit apart from the killing of UFA forces, which by most non-Kremlin accounts appears to be in UFA's favor. Of course from Russia's perspective, their own losses don't count. The world sees 3 to 1 or better in UFA's favor and Russia calls that a win because the 3 don't count.

You're now speaking for "the world"? That's a bit presumptuous, to say the least.

You're only flipping the narrative here.

Bakhmut was surrounded on 3 sides, with reinforcement roads being under fire, and the Russians using far more firepower to flatten Ukrainian positions from higher positions surrounding the city. They also attacked mostly at night, because most Ukrainians troops didn't have night vision equipment. The Wagner MO was to concentrate forces and focus on a small area up to 10 to 1, overwhelm frontline defenses then keep pushing on before Ukraine consolidates the next line of defense. This explains the long pattern of small and steady Russian advances into Bakhmut.

Quote:

And since this thread has long devolved into useful idiots sharing propaganda and conspiracy theories, here's one on the Tatarsky bombing that would support this being a typical liquidation of a political enemy by the Kremlin. Similar theories abound for that girl who was carbombed last year under similar circumstances. None of this fits within Ukraine's MO and there is no risk reward to justify it, so I'm extremely skeptical of any claims about Ukraine's involvement.
That's ridiculous, if the Russian officials didn't like Tatarsky or wanted him to stop, they would have just told him so, or had him arrested, as opposed to bombing a St Petersburg restaurant. This is even more stupid than believing that the Russians bombed their own pipelines.

"That girl who got carbombed" was on an official Ukrainian kill list, and when she was killed, her file was gleefully marked "liquidated". The Russian authorities had no reasons to kill her, she was a well-spoken polyglot, and a very good representative of Russia.

This is on the level of your tales of Putin having poisoned Kadyrov, and Kadyrov escaping to Dubai. It's low-grade James Bond villain-level propaganda for the dumbest elements among the NATO warmongers.

I have no proof, but i've been reading a few times there is a split within the Russian intelligence services (GRU) about following Putin down the path he's going and that some of the things going on within Russian borders may be of their doing.
Unit2Sucks
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MinotStateBeav said:


I have no proof, but i've been reading a few times there is a split within the Russian intelligence services (GRU) about following Putin down the path he's going and that some of the things going on within Russian borders may be of their doing.

"down the path he's going"? The Putinists have assured us that everything is going to plan. We are only 400 days into the 3 day war, people just need to be more patient and trust the process.





Cal88
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"Darth Putin" will have you believe that Bakhmut is insignificant, only "the 58th most important city" in Ukraine.

No really, the Battle of Bakhmut is not the biggest battle of the 21st century in terms of the size of the armies that fought this 8-month war, and the size of the losses. Nuh-uh.

And Bakhmut is definitely not a strategic hub or the heart of the layered defense network that Ukraine has worked 7 years to build, definitely not, no siree Bob.

Zel was just kidding, really, there, as professional comedians are prone to:

Quote:

(CNN) Russian troops will have "open road" to capture key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize control of Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in an interview with CNN, as he defended his decision to keep Ukrainian forces in the besieged city.

"This is tactical for us," Zelensky said, insisting that Kyiv's military brass is united in prolonging its defense of the city after weeks of Russian attacks left it on the cusp of falling to Moscow's troops.

"We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer in an exclusive interview from Kyiv. "That's why our guys are standing there."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/07/europe/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-cnn-interview-bakhmut-intl/index.html


But really - how about those Finns?
dimitrig
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Cal88 said:

"Darth Putin" will have you believe that Bakhmut is insignificant, only "the 58th most important city" in Ukraine.

No really, it's not the biggest battle of the 21st century in terms of the size of the armies that fought this 8-month war, and the size of the losses. Nuh-uh.

And it's definitely not a strategic hub or the heart of the layered defense network that Ukraine has worked 7 years to build, definitely not, no siree Bob.

Zel was just kidding, really, there, as professional comedians are prone to:

Quote:

(CNN) Russian troops will have "open road" to capture key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize control of Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in an interview with CNN, as he defended his decision to keep Ukrainian forces in the besieged city.

"This is tactical for us," Zelensky said, insisting that Kyiv's military brass is united in prolonging its defense of the city after weeks of Russian attacks left it on the cusp of falling to Moscow's troops.

"We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer in an exclusive interview from Kyiv. "That's why our guys are standing there."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/07/europe/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-cnn-interview-bakhmut-intl/index.html


How about those Finns?


Why doesn't Russia just bypass Bakhmut in the way Germany bypassed the Maginot Line?

Russia and Belarus share a long border with Ukraine. They should be able to open a new front somewhere else.

Cal88
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Bakhmut is a rail and road regional hub, you would have to take it in order to proceed further west, or at the very least cut off all access roads and invest it until it's conquered, which is what the Russians did.

The Russians' primary goal in this campaign is not to conquer Ukraine, it is to demilitarize it, in other words, to destroy Ukraine's military capacity in order to force their political aims on Ukraine. It's the von Clausewitz military doctrine.

So the Russians have been pursuing this goal, relying on their key advantage, their huge edge in firepower. This edge is best exploited in more static WW1-style slugfests, rather than a dynamic big arrow war. The Russians have, since November, been able to impose their preferred kind of warfare where they can exploit their key advantage, and the Battle of Bakhmut has very much been in that mold.

The key aspect here is that Russia has been able to inflict disproportionately high losses on the Ukrainian army. This is a fact that is flipped on its heels in the pro-NATO media. They will have you believe that it is the side that hasn't had a mobilization since September that has been heavily bleeding, not the side that is on its 11th round of mobilization, and is forcefully conscripting men 16 to 60 off of city streets.

One side started the war with 650,000 soldiers and had nearly a dozen mobilization rounds since but today can't seem to muster enough men to mount a large offensive, while the other side that invaded with 190,000 soldiers and had just one other mobilization round seven months ago has the initiative and is dictating its terms.

So which side do you think has had the biggest losses??
movielover
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Colonel Douglass McGregor claims that it's now been revealed - this was the strategy of the new commanding General put in charge 10 months ago. Essentially turn Bakhmut into a killing zone - let new soldiers come to them, and turn them into corpses.

Also a brief review of military technological advantages the 'old' Russian army has to halt the hoped-for Ukranian Offensive - Coronet (?) missiles, radar directed munitions, and missiles that strike tanks from above, where armor is far less... something we don't have?
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

Bakhmut is a rail and road regional hub, you would have to take it in order to proceed further west, or at the very least cut off all access roads and invest it until it's conquered, which is what the Russians did.

The Russians' primary goal in this campaign is not to conquer Ukraine, it is to demilitarize it, in other words, to destroy its military capacity in order to force its political aims on Ukraine. It's the von Clausewitz military doctrine.

So the Russians have been pursuing this goal, relying on their key advantage, their huge edge in firepower. This edge is best exploited in more static WW1-style slugfests, rather than a dynamic big arrow war. The Russians have, since November, been able to impose their kind of warfare, and the Battle of Bakhmut has very much been in that mold.

The key aspect here is that Russia has been able to inflict disproportionally high losses on the Ukrainian army. This is a fact that is flipped on its heels in the pro-NATO media. They will have you believe that it is the side that hasn't had a mobilization since September that has been heavily bleeding, not the side that is on its 11th round of mobilization, and is forcefully conscripting men 16 to 60 off of city streets.

One side started the war with 650,000 soldiers and had nearly a dozen mobilization rounds since but today can't seem to muster enough men to mount a large offensive, while the other side that invaded with 190,000 soldiers and had just one other mobilization round seven months ago has the initiative and is dictating its terms.

So which side do you think has had the biggest losses??


Is that what Russia's primary goal is? It's hard to follow what Russia's goals are as they are constantly changing to adapt to their most recent failures.
golden sloth
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movielover said:

Colonel Douglass McGregor claims that it's now been revealed - this was the strategy of the new commanding General put in charge 10 months ago. Essentially turn Bakhmut into a killing zone - let new soldiers come to them, and turn them into corpses.

Also a brief review of military technological advantages the 'old' Russian army has to halt the hoped-for Ukranian Offensive - Coronet (?) missiles, radar directed munitions, and missiles that strike tanks from above, where armor is far less... something we don't have?


I like how you keep citing this dude even though he is constantly making different claims, yes, if you say everything, eventually one of them will be true. It doesn't mean you were right all along.
movielover
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Wrecking Ukraine, and by nation, NATOs military. It sounds like you're commenting a year ago and your facts are dated. Ukraine and NATO (USA) are extremely thin on ammunition, and have no way to immediately ramp up production.

Beyond that, they're letting Ukraine come to them in their killing zone. That's the theory.
movielover
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He's been pretty consistent the past 6 months. Russia may not have launched a big offensive as it was a mild winter and the ground didn't freeze enough.

Ukraine is fielding 16- and 55-year-old men. Not a good sign. Pounded, huge losses.
dimitrig
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I think you will find that defenders typically have an advantage and I would be surprised if Russian casualties are less than Ukraine's.

Urban warfare is intense and Russia is going to have to clear out Bakhmut building by building which is essentially what they are doing now. This is completely counter to the narrative that this is an artillery-based campaign. It has been at various times, but you can only do so much with artillery.

That Russia hasn't been able to cut off the supply lines after months of trying shows that they don't have the numerical advantage they need. They will ultimately take the city because they do have a numerical advantage, but this has hardly been a battle that academy cadets will study in class as a Russian success story.

This is more like a Russian version of Thermopylae.

Cal88
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movielover said:

Colonel Douglass McGregor claims that it's now been revealed - this was the strategy of the new commanding General put in charge 10 months ago. Essentially turn Bakhmut into a killing zone - let new soldiers come to them, and turn them into corpses.

Also a brief review of military technological advantages the 'old' Russian army has to halt the hoped-for Ukranian Offensive - Coronet (?) missiles, radar directed munitions, and missiles that strike tanks from above, where armor is far less... something we don't have?

The Kornet portable anti-tank missile has indeed been used extensively to pick off high-value moving targets in and out of Bakhmut, with a range of up to 8km (vs 1km-1.5km for the western NLAW and Javelin), since the Russians got within that firing range of the Bakhmut access roads early on. The Russians have a huge stockpile of these.

The general in charge is Sergei Surovikin, who crushed ISIS, AQ and the jihadi rebels in Syria. He also had a lot of success leading Russian forces in southern Ukraine in the early stages of the war, the divisions he was in charge of performed best in this war. He's also an air force guy, and will be increasingly relying on their jets now because Ukrainian AA capacities have been reduced, and also because the Russians now are producing cheap 500kg-1,500kg gliding precision-guided GPS bombs that can be released up to 50km away from Su-34s Su-35s and older Su-24 Fencers. These are now being mass-produced and used extensively on the front against fortified Ukrainian positions




Cal88
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dimitrig said:


I think you will find that defenders typically have an advantage and I would be surprised if Russian casualties are less than Ukraine's.

Urban warfare is intense and Russia is going to have to clear out Bakhmut building by building which is essentially what they are doing now. This is completely counter to the narrative that this is an artillery-based campaign. It has been at various times, but you can only do so much with artillery.

That Russia hasn't been able to cut off the supply lines after months of trying shows that they don't have the numerical advantage they need. They will ultimately take the city because they do have a numerical advantage, but this has hardly been a battle that academy cadets will study in class as a Russian success story.

This is more like a Russian version of Thermopylae.

One key datum here is that around 80% of Ukrainian KIAs to date have been from artillery fire. So one side having an 8 to 1 edge in artillery volume is going to translate into lopsided personnel losses.

The urban warfare to date for Russia has been handled almost exclusively by Wagner, who are specialists with experience from the Syrian campaign. When they engage a target, they usually do so by swarming it with a ~10 to 1 advantage, mostly at night with NVG and equipment identifying friendlies, which Ukrainian troops lack, in conjunction with artillery, meaning the buildings targeted are heavily bombed right before they invest them. Notice that in Bakhmut, the gains in urban areas have only gone in one direction throughout, with the Russians rolling in a slow and steady grind.

In Bakhmut the Russians have created battle conditions which favor them, and have deliberately extended the battle to take advantage of this. With the city surrounded on 3 sides, Ukrainian reinforcement columns were subject to Russian fire, while the opposite wasn't true. The rational decision for Ukraine would have been to cut loose with Bakhmut months ago, but they never did because their military strategy has been driven by their PR war.
Cal88
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Former French president Francois Hollande, believing he was talking with Petro Poroshenko, fesses up about Minsk being a ploy to rearm Ukraine, and about the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine:

MinotStateBeav
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Cal88 said:

Former French president Francois Hollande, believing he was talking with Petro Poroshenko, fesses up about Minsk being a ploy to rearm Ukraine, and about the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine:



I saw that last night..I almost posted it on here..but I was asking myself..it's real right? The state of things today, I can't even believe my lying eyes. The fakes have gotten so effective, that the future is going to be chaotic. I think its real but I can't be certain. If it's real, holy sh*t.
Cal88
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MinotStateBeav said:

Cal88 said:

Former French president Francois Hollande, believing he was talking with Petro Poroshenko, fesses up about Minsk being a ploy to rearm Ukraine, and about the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine:



I saw that last night..I almost posted it on here..but I was asking myself..it's real right? The state of things today, I can't even believe my lying eyes. The fakes have gotten so effective, that the future is going to be chaotic. I think its real but I can't be certain. If it's real, holy sh*t.

It's real, the interview has been making the rounds on French internet and media outlets. No denials from Hollande...

In truth there is not much in that interview that wasn't well known before, though it's great to hear the facts from the horse's mouth, Hollande having been one of the 3 main signatories of the Minsk Agreements. Other statements he made:

-The Ukraine war is a proxy war by the US against Russia, and by NATO against Russia
-When asked if this war was going to be fought till the last Ukrainian, Hollande said maybe so, we'll see
-We (NATO) helped out the Maidan coup and overthrow of the democratically elected Ukraine govt
-Minsk was a ploy to rearm Ukraine, not meant to be applied, peace was going to be broken
Big C
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Not to totally digress, but, Cal88, what did you think of Hollande, compared to Macron? I'm pretty removed from the situation in France these days, but my general impression was that he (FH) was worse.
movielover
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Cal88 said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Cal88 said:

Former French president Francois Hollande, believing he was talking with Petro Poroshenko, fesses up about Minsk being a ploy to rearm Ukraine, and about the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine:



I saw that last night..I almost posted it on here..but I was asking myself..it's real right? The state of things today, I can't even believe my lying eyes. The fakes have gotten so effective, that the future is going to be chaotic. I think its real but I can't be certain. If it's real, holy sh*t.

It's real, the interview has been making the rounds on French internet and media outlets. No denials from Hollande...

In truth there is not much in that interview that wasn't well known before, though it's great to hear the facts from the horse's mouth, Hollande having been one of the 3 main signatories of the Minsk Agreements. Other statements he made:

-The Ukraine war is a proxy war by the US against Russia, and by NATO against Russia
-When asked if this war was going to be fought till the last Ukrainian, Hollande said maybe so, we'll see
-We (NATO) helped out the Maidan coup and overthrow of the democratically elected Ukraine govt
-Minsk was a ploy to rearm Ukraine, not meant to be applied, peace was going to be broken


How is U2S going to spin this?
movielover
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movielover
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movielover
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How will the Ukrainian true believers here react?

MinotStateBeav
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movielover
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dimitrig
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movielover said:




When things "leak" they aren't always what they seem.

I can't believe how naive some people, including Elon freaking Musk, can be.

Eastern Oregon Bear
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dimitrig said:

movielover said:




When things "leak" they aren't always what they seem.

I can't believe how naive some people, including Elon freaking Musk, can be.

Yeah, if it's known that the plans leaked out a while back, it's likely that newer and different plans have been written up.
oski003
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Definitely interested in hearing about the validity of the ex French president call as well as the leaked NATO plans. Here is some good NATO propaganda that, if true, shows Russian troops' unwillingness to fight:

"Russian soldiers calling a Ukrainian hotline that allows them to surrender are also offering to hand over equipment and heavy armored vehicles, a Ukrainian official said.

The telephone line is part of a project called "I Want to Live," allowing Russian soldiers to arrange to give themselves up rather than fight.

The hotline tells callers they will receive treatment under the terms of the Geneva Convention, which guarantees meals, phone calls home, and medical care.

Launched last year, officials claim to receive thousands of calls per month with record numbers coming in throughout March, spokesperson Vitaliy Matvienko told Ukrainian TV, according to The New Voice of Ukraine.

He attributed the rise to fears over a counter-offensive expected from Ukraine this Spring, the outlet reported. "

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russians-are-offering-up-equipment-and-heavy-armored-vehicles-to-ukraines-surrender-hotline-official-says/ar-AA19Aex6
dimitrig
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oski003 said:

Definitely interested in hearing about the validity of the ex French president call as well as the leaked NATO plans. Here is some good NATO propaganda that, if true, shows Russian troops' unwillingness to fight:

"Russian soldiers calling a Ukrainian hotline that allows them to surrender are also offering to hand over equipment and heavy armored vehicles, a Ukrainian official said.

The telephone line is part of a project called "I Want to Live," allowing Russian soldiers to arrange to give themselves up rather than fight.

The hotline tells callers they will receive treatment under the terms of the Geneva Convention, which guarantees meals, phone calls home, and medical care.

Launched last year, officials claim to receive thousands of calls per month with record numbers coming in throughout March, spokesperson Vitaliy Matvienko told Ukrainian TV, according to The New Voice of Ukraine.

He attributed the rise to fears over a counter-offensive expected from Ukraine this Spring, the outlet reported. "

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russians-are-offering-up-equipment-and-heavy-armored-vehicles-to-ukraines-surrender-hotline-official-says/ar-AA19Aex6


Probably flooded with robocalls from Russia.

Unit2Sucks
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NYT ran an article about Russia's "offensive" that is factually consistent with other reporting and notes how different the results are from the propaganda spread by shills for months. While the pro-Putin crowd is trying to spin this offensive stalemate as a planned win for Putin, it is what it is. Even when it eventually takes Bakhmut, it will have accomplished less than it aimed to do in the first 3 days of this unprovoked war and is still far behind where it was last spring.

Quote:

After months of pouring soldiers into eastern Ukraine, Russia's progress essentially adds up to this: three small settlements and part of the city of Bakhmut, a high-profile battlefield with limited strategic value.

Compare that with what Moscow had hoped to achieve from its winter offensive by now: to seize the entire Donbas region which contains dozens more settlements, some of them much larger than Bakhmut. To do that, Russia would have to recreate and win battles at the scale of Bakhmut again and again.

A breakthrough for Russia appears increasingly unlikely. Regardless of the outcome in the fierce battle of Bakhmut, Moscow's inability to gain substantial ground in the Donbas shows how little its offensive has achieved and how much its military has struggled to efficiently capture urban areas throughout the war.

After mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, Russia is no longer severely understaffed, as it was in the fall, when it lost large parts of the northeast in a surprise Ukrainian counteroffensive.

But even with more troops and firepower, Russia has, at best, only managed to inch forward, encountering well-prepared Ukrainian positions, protected by basements and buildings, with defensive lines heavily fortified from nearly a decade of fighting.

Ukrainians fought Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region for years before the full-fledged invasion in February last year.

A Russian attack near the coal-mining town of Vuhledar this year ended in a rout after Ukrainian soldiers ambushed poorly organized columns of tanks. An attempt to capture the town of Avdiivka in recent weeks has not broken through, although Russian shelling barely seems to stop.

And a tenacious Ukrainian defense has held up against wave after wave of Russian attacks aimed at encircling Bakhmut, which was once home to around 70,000 people. The casualties on both sides have been enormous, but the land changing hands is minuscule.

Russia has struggled to make gains because it had barely stablized itself after its losses in the fall before launching its winter offensive, Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia, told the "War on the Rocks" podcast last month.

"The Russian military doesn't have the force quality," Mr. Kofman said. "It doesn't necessarily seem to have the ammunition either. And it can't replace junior leadership in such a short amount of time."

Russia's grinding advances in Bakhmut have been led by the Wagner private military company, which recruited tens of thousands of convicts from Russian prisons in exchange for the promise of freedom.

The prolonged and bloody fight for Bakhmut has depleted Wagner's supply of prisoner recruits, according to Ukrainian officials, forcing it to use more of its professional recruits. Military analysts are skeptical that Russia could repeat its strategy of near-suicidal prisoner assaults that it has used in Bakhmut on any future Ukrainian cities.

And it's apparent that China's relationship with Russia is closer to what I've been saying than the pro-Russia crowd has been pretending. Their "no-limits" relationship doesn't mean Xi will support this dumb loser of a war. Russia is on its own and this conflict couldn't possibly result in a world war, unless "world war" means Russia fighting the rest of the world.



As for the recent leaks, it would appear they are at least partially real but heavily doctored. Leave it to Russia to go in and change the casualty numbers to make it look like this hasn't been as much of a disaster but only the dumbest of the dumb will fall for it. In any event, I don't expect that these leaks will have any impact on the looming offensive. Given that Ukraine employs modern military strategy and has a competent command and control structure, whatever we see from Ukraine will look a lot more like their last offensive in 2022 and nothing like Russia's pathetic attempt over the last 7 weeks.


concordtom
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Have fun chewing through this

https://www.yahoo.com/news/purported-tranche-of-us-and-allied-military-secrets-leaked-online-in-major-intelligence-breach-222137953.html
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