The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

873,051 Views | 9916 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by bear2034
movielover
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Define decent background. Gracias.
Big C
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movielover said:

Define decent background. Gracias.

Undergrad major at Cal. Taught high school social studies. Knew immigrant families from Ukraine quite well in mid-late '90s. So I don't claim to be an expert and I haven't even really kept up in great detail the past 15 years or so (until a year ago), but I have a pretty good feel for the situation over there, including the history behind it... and I'm not buying for one second that Russia, as a country, is in good shape by any definition whatsoever.

Russia: bad guys, because of their leaders (but the people are letting their leaders be the leaders, as they always have)
Ukraine: not necessarily good guys, but they aren't the aggressors here... hanging tough, but getting beat up
US: basically doing the right thing here, but, shockingly, our feces stinks, just like everyone else's
NATO: shoulda stopped at Poland (edit: never shoulda talked about anything east of Poland being part of NATO)
Unit2Sucks
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Big C said:



Russia: bad guys, because of their leaders (but the people are letting their leaders be the leaders, as they always have)
Ukraine: not necessarily good guys, but they aren't the aggressors here... hanging tough, but getting beat up
US: basically doing the right thing here, but, shockingly, our feces stinks, just like everyone else's
NATO: shoulda stopped at Poland
Russia is having a field day with the support from the worst Americans.



The pro-Russian shills love to talk about Ukraine but they fastidiously avoid ever acknowledging what's going on in Russia which is their big tell. Supporters of Ukraine don't need to apologize for their support - we are supporting a victim of unlawful aggression. We can acknowledge that Ukraine has a history of corruption - Yanukovich was a corrupt Russian stooge who worked with Manafort to corruptly install a puppet government to benefit Putin and corruption has continued to be a problem. Just like other corrupt former Soviet republics, including Russia - which would be the most corrupt country in Europe if it were considered to be in Europe - corruption is a historic problem. Unlike Russia, there is at least some appetite for anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine.

If the pro-Russian trolls had any desire to be objective, they would acknowledge Russia's failings in this war. Even the most die-hard Russian milbloggers and many other paid propagandists have acknowledged that the war hasn't gone to plan. You have to wonder why anyone would choose to 100% ignore all negative news.

At least we can enjoy the fact that Russia's relying on Scooby-Doo vans despite being the best equipped fighting force in the world with the most amazing artillery and other technology because Russia is basically white Wakanda. Or so the shills would like to pretend.



Maybe our shills will fly to Ukraine to help motivate these unhappy mobiks. If only the mobiks knew how lucky they were to be sacrificing themselves for a pointless war which won't benefit the people of Russia but will bring glory to Putin, they could be as supportive of the war as people in America who hate America.


movielover
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Are you feeling OK, no 'firehose of falsehoods'.

[Edit for clarity] To start with, Cal88 and myself acknowledge that Russia started with an army less than half the size of Ukraine's. That Russia started off on the wrong foot - thinking Kiev would put up little resistance - and didn't have the drone technology needed. Russia went in "soft", and that didn't work. It didn't bring Zelensky to the table. Maybe the Nazi factions got to him - Z ran on a platform of peace with Russia. But that's old news. So Putin beefed up his military.

As always, you avoid significant facts:

- The Ukranian General was essentially begging for new brigades / tanks (400) / vehicles 7 months ago in The Economist.
- The EU Commander said they were very low on ammo 6 months ago.
- Interviews in The Kiev Independent and elsewhere of Ukrainian soldiers are chiefly identified as being in their 50s.
- The recent leaker posted documents revealing a current Ukrainian massacre with an unheard of 7-to-1 kill ratio and onlyn9,000 artillery shells.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

Are you feeling OK, no 'firehose of falsehoods'.

To start with, Cal88 and myself acknowledge that Ukraine started with an army less than half the size of Ukraine's. That Russia started off on the wrong foot, and didn't have the drone technology needed. But that's old news.
I'm fairly confident Ukraine started with an army equal to the size of Ukraine's. I'll even go as far as saying that Russia started with an army equal to the size of Russia's.
sycasey
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Big C said:

NATO: shoulda stopped at Poland (edit: never shoulda talked about anything east of Poland being part of NATO)

Maybe, but ultimately it's Russia's neighbors that make the most noise about joining NATO. I wonder why that is?
movielover
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Exactly.
golden sloth
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sycasey said:

Big C said:

NATO: shoulda stopped at Poland (edit: never shoulda talked about anything east of Poland being part of NATO)

Maybe, but ultimately it's Russia's neighbors that make the most noise about joining NATO. I wonder why that is?


That is the key point the most ardent pro-invasion / pro-Russian imperialism people fail to address when they blame everything on the USA and NATO.

Why do Russia's neighbors fear Russia? Why do Russia's neighbors not trust Russia? Why do Russia's neighbors want to be in NATO?
movielover
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US bribes / coercion is part of the equation.
movielover
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golden sloth
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movielover said:




Aka day 5 billion of Bakhmut being a few days away from falling.
sycasey
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movielover said:

US bribes / coercion is part of the equation.
Is it a bigger part of it than Russia regularly invading/interfering/threatening its neighbors? I would wager if that wasn't happening then any US coercion would have little effect.
movielover
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April 2023, another Nazi honored in Kyiv - after a PUBLIC vote.

Jerusalem Post: "A street in Kyiv will soon bear the name of Volodymyr Kubiyovych, one of the founders of the Waffen-SS Galizien, the Ukraine branch of the Nazi military force."

"...he requested the creation of an autonomous state within Ukraine in which Poles and Jews would not be allowed to live."

Thank you Cal88 for informing us about Ukraine's deep and current Nazi roots.

calbear93
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movielover said:

April 2023, another Nazi honored in Kyiv - after a PUBLIC vote.

Jerusalem Post: "A street in Kyiv will soon bear the name of Volodymyr Kubiyovych, one of the founders of the Waffen-SS Galizien, the Ukraine branch of the Nazi military force."

"...he requested the creation of an autonomous state within Ukraine in which Poles and Jews would not be allowed to live."

Thank you Cal88 for informing us about Ukraine's deep and current Nazi roots.



Do you really believe that the Ukrainian government is a Nazi based government?

Do you really believe that our defense of Ukraine through military support is based on our best global interest or based on morals? Do you think we would be doing the same thing if one African nation invaded another or if Israel built more settlements on disputed territory? Or do you think maintaining influence and dominance in EU is important to our way of life? If this is for our best interest in opposition to one of our enemies' interest (let's not kid ourselves - Russia and China are our enemies and they WANT to minimize our influence and our economic interests), why are you so bent on promoting our enemy's interest?

Finally, since you are so focused on denouncing Nazism, how much are you opposing Gosar's continued presence in Congress?

Truly curious.
Big C
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sycasey said:

Big C said:

NATO: shoulda stopped at Poland (edit: never shoulda talked about anything east of Poland being part of NATO)

Maybe, but ultimately it's Russia's neighbors that make the most noise about joining NATO. I wonder why that is?

If you're really wondering, go back and read the part of my post that you didn't quote. The part that said, "Russia: bad guys".
movielover
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Maybe Putin was following Jewish law. Also called common sense.

Self Defence in Jewish Law JG
ByJeremy Gordon
:-

" ::
() . , ; " , " , , ( "):
Rashi on Exodus 22:1:2

(2) THERE SHALL NO GUILT OF BLOOD BE INCURRED FOR HIM This is not regarded as a murder; it is as though he (the thief) has been dead from the beginning of his criminal act ( is taken to mean: he, the thief, had no blood no vitality). Here the Torah teaches you the rule: "If one comes with the intention of killing you, be quick and kill him".
movielover
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movielover
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calbear93
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movielover said:


Let's check back when they have to pay back the debt.

These emerging countries are like teenagers with a fresh credit card until the banks come collecting the overdue payment.

For the rest of the developed world, China's main draws are their large customer base with increasing wealth across their population and the highly educated workforce (while we continue to dumb down our standards). They are no longer a cheaper source of manufacturing, especially with the cost in regulation and IP theft. Most smart companies with manufacturing in China are trying to limit it solely for sales in China.

While we engage in social warfare and talk about military spending not being necessary, China is looking to displace us as the main world power broker and as the preferred world leaders (with all of the economic and quality of life benefit that comes with that - we won't know what our standing in the world did for us until we lose it). When China and Russia engage in covert propaganda in the US, it isn't about how great China and Russia are. Their propaganda is on how the other Americans with different beliefs are evil. By inspiring us to cannibalize ourselves from within, we do their work. No need to look further than here.
sycasey
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China had a massive baby boom that fueled a lot of their growth, one that is soon going to cycle out. I'd put a pause on predictions that their current power/influence trajectory will continue forever.
calbear93
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sycasey said:

China had a massive baby boom that fueled a lot of their growth, one that is soon going to cycle out. I'd put a pause on predictions that their current power/influence trajectory will continue forever.
India is the next China as the next hypergrowth country with highly educated workforce if they can only get corruption under control.
bearister
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Wagner mercenary admits 'tossing grenades' at injured Ukrainian PoWs


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/wagner-mercenary-admits-tossing-grenades-at-injured-ukrainian-pows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"Wagner has recruited tens of thousands of inmates, including convicted murderers, to fight in eastern Ukraine. They were offered freedom if they survived a near-suicidal six-month stint, one Savichev completed on 12 March."

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
dimitrig
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bearister said:



Wagner mercenary admits 'tossing grenades' at injured Ukrainian PoWs


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/wagner-mercenary-admits-tossing-grenades-at-injured-ukrainian-pows?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"Wagner has recruited tens of thousands of inmates, including convicted murderers, to fight in eastern Ukraine. They were offered freedom if they survived a near-suicidal six-month stint, one Savichev completed on 12 March."




"The Guardian cannot independently verify either man's harrowing claim" but they are going to publish it as fact anyway.



bearister
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An uncorroborated eyewitness account (that the Guardian points out) beats the heck out of "I know a guy who knows a guy" that Fox News goes with.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
MinotStateBeav
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Yeah, when China comes calling to collect on those credit cards, they'll just take land as payment. Significant resource rich portions of some of these countries are going to be owned by China. We'll see if China can contain the eventual backlash that happens.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

movielover said:



Aka day 5 billion of Bakhmut being a few days away from falling.

The Kiev government is trying its damnest to hold on to this city past May 9th, which is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating their victory over Nazi Germany. That date is also why I believe they will start their Spring offensive a few days before that in order to dampen Russian celebrations. Ukraine`s military campaign has been driven by their PR war. They've sacrificed tens of thousands of bodies in an attempt to hold onto Bakhmut.

It reminds me of WW1 being extended by some numerology freak till November 11 1918.. The armistice was signed on 11/11 at 11am. Thousands more died in early November, while the outcome of the war was settled months before.

movielover
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HistoryLegends with another excellent video, this one highlighting the rapid decrease in Ukrainian military numbers. (Hats off to Cal88 for educating us here.)

The NATO supporters here will note his sources include... the Washington Post, European Counsel, etc. Numerous sources. Highlights:

- Ukraine's struggle for manpower
- public conscription (Cal88)
- his estimate the Bakhmut consumed 120K Ukranian soldiers... including KIA, wounded, AWOL.
- Russia seeking 400K additional volunteers?
- New Ukranian troops only getting 3-5 days training!; leading to a much higher casualty / KIA ratio (inexperienced).

golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

movielover said:



Aka day 5 billion of Bakhmut being a few days away from falling.

The Kiev government is trying its damnest to hold on to this city past May 9th, which is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating their victory over Nazi Germany. That date is also why I believe they will start their Spring offensive a few days before that in order to dampen Russian celebrations. Ukraine`s military campaign has been driven by their PR war. They've sacrificed tens of thousands of bodies in an attempt to hold onto Bakhmut.

It reminds me of WW1 being extended by some numerology freak till November 11 1918.. The armistice was signed on 11/11 at 11am. Thousands more died in early November, while the outcome of the war was settled months before.


No, that is what Russia is doing, you just don't realize it because you are hypnotized by the Russian propaganda machine.

Vlade! Vlade! Vlade! can't you see?
Sometimes your words just hypnotize me
golden sloth
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Russia is about to implement a draft via email.


Quote:

MOSCOW, April 11 (Reuters) - Russia is poised to introduce electronic military draft papers for the first time in its history in an effort to make it harder for men to avoid being drafted after the lower house of parliament gave its backing to the legislation on Tuesday.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-plans-electronic-call-up-papers-help-mobilisation-2023-04-11/

First, this proves Russians don't want to die in Ukraine (who would want to die for an egomaniac's vanity project).
Second, this proves Russia is worried about effective conscription, which really makes you wonder what they have planned.
Third, it TOTALLY does not prove Russia is running out of men, as their Winter offensive was GREAT and GLORIOUS, and they achieved COMPLETE SUCCESS as dictated by Savior Vladimir Putin: Hero to the Poor, Light to the Darkness, Bringer of Peace.
movielover
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HistoryLegends (above link) refers to the allegation that Ukraine sent citizens from the east and south to the front line (Russian speaking Ukranians) (he has mixed feelings on the topic); and Ukraine now routing police officers into the military.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

Russia is about to implement a draft via email.


Quote:

MOSCOW, April 11 (Reuters) - Russia is poised to introduce electronic military draft papers for the first time in its history in an effort to make it harder for men to avoid being drafted after the lower house of parliament gave its backing to the legislation on Tuesday.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-plans-electronic-call-up-papers-help-mobilisation-2023-04-11/

First, this proves Russians don't want to die in Ukraine (who would want to die for an egomaniac's vanity project).
Second, this proves Russia is worried about effective conscription, which really makes you wonder what they have planned.
Third, it TOTALLY does not prove Russia is running out of men, as their Winter offensive was GREAT and GLORIOUS, and they achieved COMPLETE SUCCESS as dictated by Savior Vladimir Putin: Hero to the Poor, Light to the Darkness, Bringer of Peace.

Russia hasn't had a mobilization since September, in what has been a very intense war of attrition. In addition to replacing losses, they also need to field a large reserve force in order to dissuade NATO from escalating.

First Leopard 2 casualty of the Ukraine war, in Poland during training, as a result of one tank backing into the top of another :



This illustrates the challenge of fielding a new army with new equipment and crews, it takes years for a tank crew to become proficient at operating such a weapon in combat conditions. NATO probably should recruit experienced foreign volunteers to man such weapon systems instead of trying to throw Ukrainian noobs into the fray.
Cal88
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This illustrates the kind of challenge Ukrainian forces have been facing in Bakhmut ever since they got surrounded on 3 sides several months ago:











calbear93
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Cal88 said:

This illustrates the kind of challenge Ukrainian forces have been facing in Bakhmut ever since they got surrounded on 3 sides several months ago:












To be honest, I have not watched these videos because I don't know what purpose that would serve.

I have never served in the military in a war zone and don't know what is normal and what is not.

Have you?

I suspect that watching videos of our battles during WWII would have been horrific. Maybe fighting that war was a mistake. Maybe watching videos of civil war would have been terrifying. Maybe we should have not fought to keep our country together.

So, unless you are into wasting calories, I am not sure what point you are trying to make.

Do you want us to storm the capital and demand our leaders to stop our assistance? Will that make this a pleasant experience for the same soldiers? Demand our leaders to tell their leaders who have their own sovereignty that they should surrender and give up their land, their home, their food, their resources and their women to the raiding forces?

You exhibit such bizarre behavior with really baffling motive here.
Cal88
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Does digging deeper to find out the truth about a major event constitute "bizarre behavior and baffling motive", or does it just reflect your difficulty in assimilating content and facts that go completely against the narrative you're presented on this conflict?

Because the Ukraine war is not like WW2 or the Civil War, it is a war of choice that has been fed by a false narrative, much like the Vietnam War or the Iraqi invasion.

Ukraine`s current government was set up through a coup backed by the US, we've created the conditions for this war and are feeding it through enormous financial and military support, NATO hawks like Boris Johnson have gone out of our way to scuttle attempts by parties including Ukrainian ones to prevent or stop this war.

This is the statement the Ukrainian officer makes in one of the short videos I`ve posted above, reported here:



"Being at war for more than a year and seeing everything from the inside, I want to tell you dear Ukrainians that not even 1% of the truth of what is happening here is being told to you. You are told and shown want they want you to see, and the reality is not at all like that, Over the last month, I have completely changed my mind and my vision of what is really happening, this war is a big geopolitical game of the powers that be, where Ukraine and Ukrainians are just a bargaining chip."

This has been the very same major point I have been trying to drive here. Do you think that Ukrainian office's statement constitutes bizarre behavior and a baffling motive?


Eastern Oregon Bear
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I think the war in Ukraine is like the old story about blind men trying to describe an elephant. Everyone has their own piece of the puzzle but no one is seeing the overall picture. Anyone who thinks they know what is happening in Ukraine is deluding themselves. Especially the armchair military analysts sitting thousands of miles away.
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