Good article on the state of industrial warfare in this conflict:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-28/ukraine-and-the-pentagon-are-using-ammo-far-faster-than-us-makes-itexcerpts:
Quote:
Ukraine Is Running Out of Ammo. So Is the US.
America's industrial base is struggling with supply chains and a shortage of workers while the Pentagon contracts are piling up.
As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's military commander over a decade ago, I would often look deep into logistics and supply chains as I contemplated our combat operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Libya and counterpiracy. We felt comfortable that the overall Western defense industrial base which supports over $1.2 trillion in collective military budgets for the 31 NATO nations could handle those conflicts with relative ease.
But what made me nervous a decade ago was the possibility of great power conflict in Europe notably a potential flare-up with the Russian federation. While the democratic allies enjoy an overwhelming capability and inventory advantage (Russia's total defense budget is under $70 billion, one-tenth of NATO's at best), the Russians have a competent industrial base, lots of raw materials, and can draw on conscript labor to man the machines in their foundries and factories.
A number of analyses and war simulations are trying to project where the critical pain points will occur. Guns, missiles and ammunition especially howitzer shells are of most concern. Notable among the stockpiles running low are the 155-mm gun rounds that have emerged as the key offensive punch for the Ukrainians. Several analysts believe that Ukraine is burning through a year's worth of US prewar production monthly.
While the Department of Defense will continue to protect its own war reserves, the excess armament levels stockpiled for contingencies beyond basic needs of the US war plans are very low. And it is not just howitzer rounds: The high-performance HIMARS rockets are in short supply as well,
...While there will be some pinching in specific global commercial supply chains (e.g., electronics, construction materials, some minerals), the overall capacity to outproduce the tottering Russian economy is clear. Assuming China continues to wisely decline to throw Putin a war material lifeline, Russia will fall further and further behind Western production abilities. This classic "American way of war," which succeeded in both World War II and ultimately in the Cold War, keeps the odds in favor of the Ukrainians.
I think this retired admiral and Carlyle Group vice-chairman gets two things wrong here, the likelihood of this war being settled within 12 to 18 months, well before the US/NATO industrial apparatus is fully mobilized, is pretty high, given the current depletion level of the Ukrainian army in trained soldiers, ammunition and critical equipment including AA equipment.
The Russians have a big headstart in their current production capacity, this factior is dictating their military strategy, which is to conduct this conflict as a war of attrition that relies on standoff weapons including artillery, drones and smart bombs, where they have a big edge through this year at the very least.
The other point he gets wrong is that China will back Russia, should Russia have critical needs in inputs like ball bearings, chips and optical electronic components at the very least. These are components that are easily shipped by land from China. China is facing an increasing hostile stance from the US with the escalation in Taiwan and the break in the historic US one China policy, so they are not likely to kee supplying Russia with those needed inputs, and perhaps even scale up their support with ammunition, drones and other materials should the need arise.
At this point it is becoming increasingly clear that there is no military solution for Ukraine, and that they are likely to be in a much more difficult negotiation position down the line, not to mention the additional tens or even hundreds of thousands of additional casualties they are likely to sustain this year if this grind of a war keeps going. That is the reality that unfortunately analysts and insiders like the author of the article above are refusing to accept.
