The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

871,652 Views | 9916 Replies | Last: 21 hrs ago by bear2034
sycasey
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blungld said:

I wonder if it ever troubles Putin88 that for all his "intellectualism" the only person who universally agrees and echoes his positions is perhaps the least intelligent and most irrational poster on the board. Either they are one and the same, or he's got to wonder why the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with his sources, methodology, bias, and opinions.

Really, everyone should have been done with this guy years ago when he posted those fake magazine covers and never owned up to the mistake. But tribalism rules.
Cal88
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blungld said:

I wonder if it ever troubles Putin88 that for all his "intellectualism" the only person who universally agrees and echoes his positions is perhaps the least intelligent and most irrational poster on the board. Either they are one and the same, or he's got to wonder why the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with his sources, methodology, bias, and opinions.

The sources I've posted just now, right above your post, were from General Cavoli, top US general in Europe.

He just stated in a statement to Congress that Russia's military has been largely unscathed in this war ("Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict".)

The other source was Brigadier General Sergey Melnik, leader of the northeastern Ukrainian forces. He said, quoted in a recent interview by El Pais, Spain's leading paper, that Ukraine has gone through its professional troops and is now having to rely mostly on inexperienced soldiers, in addition to lacking materiel.

Do the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with these sources??

These two top generals have just confirmed what I have been repeating over and over for months now, that Ukraine has been sustaining huge losses in a one-sided war.

If you care about Ukraine, you should pray that Nuland and Co. get off their backs and that they will finally come to their senses and go to the negotiation table. 450,000 KIAs/wounded is 450,000 too many!



dimitrig
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Cal88 said:

blungld said:

I wonder if it ever troubles Putin88 that for all his "intellectualism" the only person who universally agrees and echoes his positions is perhaps the least intelligent and most irrational poster on the board. Either they are one and the same, or he's got to wonder why the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with his sources, methodology, bias, and opinions.

The sources I've posted just now, right above your post, were from General Cavoli, top US general in Europe.

He just stated in a statement to Congress that Russia's military has been largely unscathed in this war ("Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict".)

The other source was Brigadier General Sergey Melnik, leader of the northeastern Ukrainian forces. He said, quoted in a recent interview by El Pais, Spain's leading paper, that Ukraine has gone through its professional troops and is now having to rely mostly on inexperienced soldiers, in addition to lacking materiel.

Do the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with these sources??

These two top generals have just confirmed what I have been repeating over and over for months now, that Ukraine has been sustaining huge losses in a one-sided war.

If you care about Ukraine, you should pray that Nuland and Co. get off their backs and that they will finally come to their senses and go to the negotiation table. 450,000 KIAs/wounded is 450,000 too many!






Instead of just quoting pieces of interviews and articles why not link to the source so we can read it easily ourselves?

Here is the Melnik interview:

https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-24/ukrainian-general-sergei-melnik-only-the-russians-can-change-russia-thats-when-the-war-ends.html

Reading the article it doesn't sound like he thinks Ukraine should be negotiating.

dimitrig
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General Cavoli's quote in context:

Asked about Russia's submarine patrols in the Atlantic, Cavoli said that "much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively" by its invasion of Ukraine."

He said that the Russian Air Force and Navy is largely intact. Why wouldn't it be?

As for the ground forces:

"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, told the House Armed Services Committee."

Also not surprising given Russia has had mobilizations of its reserves.

The interesting part is the closing:

"The documents which were dated February and March this year detailed a number of shortfalls among the Ukrainian military, predicting that the conflict would ultimately result in a stalemate between the two sides.

But on Wednesday, Cavoli seemed to offer a different assessment.

"[A]ccording to the modeling that we've very carefully done with them, the Ukrainians are in a good position," he said. "They have some weaknesses that I prefer not to talk about in public ... But we are confident in terms of their surprise and things like that. of course, we've worked on all that with them."


Link:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/26/politics/russia-forces-ukraine-war-cavoli/index.html

movielover
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They'll cherry pick an anecdotal observation, but avoid substantive points from expert authorities or commentators with no axe to grind.

- The Economist article where the Ukrainian general basically asks for a whole new army
- In November of 2022, General Mark Milley spoke at the Economic Club of New York, praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach.
- "When there's an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment," Milley said.
- General Cavoli, top US general in Europe, saying maybe six months ago that this SMO had unanticipated use of artillery, and NATO / Ukraine ammo supplies were threadbare
- Colonel Douglass McGregor, author of five military books, while not batting 100%, has laid out the casualty numbers and specific problems, most likely from inside sources
- Colonel McGregor is often three to six months ahead of the curve on gritty military or practical operational details - like how is Ukraine going to maintain five or six different types of tanks they're unfamiliar with on the battlefield?
- Scott Ritter, weapons Inspector and chat room aficionado
- General Cavoli recent subtle comments on the Russian military

I do hope that we have some American military doctors, nurses, and specialists in Poland helping the injured.

And peace talks. Unconditional peace talks.
movielover
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Cal88 said:

movielover said:

It's a good thing Ukraine hasn't been telegraphing their plans for months. /s Ammo storage hit?



I was listening to MacGregor's latest interview on my way home tonight, he said it was a 200 ton ammo depot that blew up there. That would be the equivalent of 5,000 155mm shells, a huge blow, both figuratively and literally. The shockwave travelled a pretty long way to that station from the depot, indicating how intense that explosion was...

Here is the interview (never mind the overdramatic cover picture on there, it's about the most penetrating analysis you can find anywhere on the current military situation in Ukraine ):




Towards the end of this interview: Soros helped install a bank teller as PM of France? [Macron]
movielover
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movielover
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sycasey
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Here's a good debate in which John Mearsheimer participates and you can see his theories put to the test against people who disagree with him:



They also take audience polls before and after the debate to see if they were moved in a particular direction. Mearsheimer's side . . . did not do well.
bearister
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More than 20,000 Russian soldiers killed in five months in Ukraine, US says


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/more-than-20000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-five-months-in-ukraine-us-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"Most of the troops were killed in brutal trench warfare for the small eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russia has repeatedly claimed it was on the brink of capturing, White House national security council spokesperson John Kirby said when he revealed the new estimate on Monday."





Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
DiabloWags
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Putin88 in 3....2....1.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Cal88
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dimitrig said:

Cal88 said:

blungld said:

I wonder if it ever troubles Putin88 that for all his "intellectualism" the only person who universally agrees and echoes his positions is perhaps the least intelligent and most irrational poster on the board. Either they are one and the same, or he's got to wonder why the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with his sources, methodology, bias, and opinions.

The sources I've posted just now, right above your post, were from General Cavoli, top US general in Europe.

He just stated in a statement to Congress that Russia's military has been largely unscathed in this war ("Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict".)

The other source was Brigadier General Sergey Melnik, leader of the northeastern Ukrainian forces. He said, quoted in a recent interview by El Pais, Spain's leading paper, that Ukraine has gone through its professional troops and is now having to rely mostly on inexperienced soldiers, in addition to lacking materiel.

Do the better informed and brighter members of the community have serious problems with these sources??

These two top generals have just confirmed what I have been repeating over and over for months now, that Ukraine has been sustaining huge losses in a one-sided war.

If you care about Ukraine, you should pray that Nuland and Co. get off their backs and that they will finally come to their senses and go to the negotiation table. 450,000 KIAs/wounded is 450,000 too many!



Instead of just quoting pieces of interviews and articles why not link to the source so we can read it easily ourselves?

Here is the Melnik interview:

https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-04-24/ukrainian-general-sergei-melnik-only-the-russians-can-change-russia-thats-when-the-war-ends.html

Reading the article it doesn't sound like he thinks Ukraine should be negotiating.


I did post that link in the previous page, that's why I didn't repost it.

Whether Melnik thinks Ukraine should be negotiating is not the point here, the point is that he has stated that Ukraine has all but run out of experienced soldiers. This means that their whole lineup of "starters" from 14 months ago has fallen, 400,000+ casualties.
Cal88
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dimitrig said:


General Cavoli's quote in context:

Asked about Russia's submarine patrols in the Atlantic, Cavoli said that "much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively" by its invasion of Ukraine."

He said that the Russian Air Force and Navy is largely intact. Why wouldn't it be?

Cavoli wasn't specifically asked about the state of the Russian navy or submarines, He was answering a question about "the degradation of the Russian forces", answering: "Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict".

Quote:

As for the ground forces:

"The Russian ground force has been degenerated somewhat by this conflict, although it is bigger today than it was at the beginning of the conflict," Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, told the House Armed Services Committee."

Also not surprising given Russia has had mobilizations of its reserves.

Russia's last mobilzation was in September, if they were taking the kind of heavy losses that Kirby stated (allegedly 100,000 in Bakhmut alone), they certainly would have mobilized by now.

Its army today is about double the size of the army they started with 14 months ago, more experienced, and much better equipped, with arguably the best suite of standoff weapons in the world, from cheap loitering/kamimaze drones to hypersonic missiles, with expanded tools including their new JDAM equivalents.

It seems that Russia is keeping a large force in reserve on the sidelines, probably to counter Ukraine's Spring/Summer offensive.

Ukraine's army on the other hand is now smaller than last year, less experienced, and with a much smaller military inventory, undermined by severe shortages in key areas like anti air and shells. I suspect however that Ukraine might have secured enough shells for the next few months from S. Korea, Pakistan and possibly Egypt.
movielover
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bearister said:

More than 20,000 Russian soldiers killed in five months in Ukraine, US says


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/more-than-20000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-five-months-in-ukraine-us-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"Most of the troops were killed in brutal trench warfare for the small eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russia has repeatedly claimed it was on the brink of capturing, White House national security council spokesperson John Kirby said when he revealed the new estimate on Monday."








Quite possible. I've also heard Ukraine may have had 125,000 killed or injured there. It's been brutal. I believe one revelation of this war, at least temporarily, is the heavy use of drones, which can do recon, save lives, and drop bombs.
Big C
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At this point, we can definitively conclude that Russia's death total so far is somewhere between 25 and 790,000. Ukraine's is now absolutely known to be between 315 and 48,500,000 (includes civilians and is thus higher).
Cal88
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We do have an "objective" floor on Ukrainian losses, provided by Miley and Ursula von der Leyen in October, after 8 months of conflict 100,000 KIAs, which would put the current figure at !50,000 KIAs minimum, since the intensity of the war has actually stepped up in Bakhmut the last 6 months. So the total casualties (KIAs, wounded and MIAs) would be in the 350,000-450,000 range.

One telling detail is that Kirby, while stating that Russia has lost 20K dead and another 80K injured, has refused to state Ukrainian losses, which indicates that they're very likely to be at least as high.


On the Ukrainian offensive: this is a very good analysis by HistoryLegends, he posits that the main push of Ukrainian forces will rely on amphibious attacks in the southwest, similar to what Egypt did to cross the Suez Canal in the 1973 war with Israel:

movielover
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Humm...

Haloski
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movielover said:

Humm...



That's the sound the fan inside the computer movielover lives inside makes!
movielover
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Small drone attack on the Kremlin.

Cal88
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Haloski said:

movielover said:

Humm...



That's the sound the fan inside the computer movielover lives inside makes!

Username checks out.
movielover
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movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.




Zelensky has denied attacking the Kremlin, and given Russia's extensive air defense, who is the culprit?

Is the CIA trying to start WWIII?
Big C
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movielover said:

movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.




Zelensky has denied attacking the Kremlin, and given Russia's extensive air defense, who is the culprit?

Is the CIA trying to start WWIII?

What I was taught growing up: Try to avoid WWIII! Very important!
dimitrig
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movielover said:

movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.




Zelensky has denied attacking the Kremlin, and given Russia's extensive air defense, who is the culprit?

Is the CIA trying to start WWIII?


Russia's extensive air defense that allowed a guy to land his plane in Red Square?




Unit2Sucks
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Firehouse of falsehoods having a lot of difficulty both pretending Russia has superior air defenses and that Ukraine "attacked the Kremlin" with drones. The video I saw showed them to be pretty immaterial - more fireworks than anything else. Was most likely some disgruntled Russian upset about the stupid war Putin is waging or a staged false flag operation.





Nonetheless Russian milbloggers are freaking out. They see that Russia has accomplished nothing during its winter offensive and that they are in a free fall in this war.





And finally, more evidence that the defense of Bakhmut went closer to the way Ukraine wanted to than what Russia sought. Russia certainly didn't expect to fail for this long to take one small city, for example. They spent five months with almost no progress at all unless you count propagandists moving the goalposts as progress.







BearHunter
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movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.


Was it the Russians that attacked themselves again?
Or will they tell us later that it was "pro-Ukrainian" forces?
Cal88
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This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.
MinotStateBeav
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BearHunter said:

movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.


Was it the Russians that attacked themselves again?
Or will they tell us later that it was "pro-Ukrainian" forces?

Honestly, it does look kinda staged lol. Why is there 2 guys on top of the kremlin roof? Also, the Kremlin owns all the cam films in the area..none of that gets released without the Kremlins okay. You'd have to wonder why the kremlin would release that video. I don't think Ukraine had anything to do with it, if it's real, It would be internal groups doing these attacks.
Haloski
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Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.
movielover
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Haloski said:

Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.


Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?

Haloski
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movielover said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.


Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?




I believe that your suspicion that it was launched by the Kremlin itself has plenty of validity and concur that this is likely a false flag operation. This was a refreshing take from you and no amount of subsequent backpedaling you do can take back your original intent. Such an anti-Russia post from movielover was very unexpected.
sycasey
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BearHunter said:

movielover said:

Small drone attack on the Kremlin.


Was it the Russians that attacked themselves again?
Or will they tell us later that it was "pro-Ukrainian" forces?

There's no way any country could possibly design a postage stamp of an event they were not directly responsible for.
movielover
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Haloski said:

movielover said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.


Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?




I believe that your suspicion that it was launched by the Kremlin itself has plenty of validity and concur that this is likely a false flag operation. This was a refreshing take from you and no amount of subsequent backpedaling you do can take back your original intent. Such an anti-Russia post from movielover was very unexpected.


Alex, I'll take False Assumptions for $500.

My thoughts are either warlike Azov or CIA / Special Ops.

Let me guess, you think Putin has a fetish for blowing up his own infrastructure. Unneeded. He's already handled Ukraine and depleted NATO stockpiles.

Colonel McGregor has been warning for months that this proxy war could splinter off in many directions, and we don't have statesmen and Obama's Avatar isn't in control.
Haloski
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movielover said:

Haloski said:

movielover said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.


Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?




I believe that your suspicion that it was launched by the Kremlin itself has plenty of validity and concur that this is likely a false flag operation. This was a refreshing take from you and no amount of subsequent backpedaling you do can take back your original intent. Such an anti-Russia post from movielover was very unexpected.


Alex, I'll take False Assumptions for $500.

My thoughts are either warlike Azov or CIA / Special Ops.

Let me guess, you think Putin has a fetish for blowing up his own infrastructure. Unneeded. He's already handled Ukraine and depleted NATO stockpiles.

Colonel McGregor has been warning for months that this proxy war could splinter off in many directions, and we don't have statesmen and Obama's Avatar isn't in control.


Haha. Now you're backpedaling, as I figured you would.

Unfortunately, it's already out there in the universe. The internet never forgets.

You have spoken badly about Vladimir Putin and accused him of a false flag operation. I don't think that's the plan, and yet it's what you've done.

This is very sad for movielover.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Haloski said:

movielover said:

Haloski said:

movielover said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:

This attack makes it clear that Zelensky is not in charge, he's well aware of the risks he runs if there is any significant damage to the Kremlin, and according to Israeli PM Bennett, is very weary of being personally targeted.


You sure have some pretty definitive thoughts about something you don't have any actual information about. Solid.


Given that the drones look so small, could they have been launched from close proximity to avoid
detection?




I believe that your suspicion that it was launched by the Kremlin itself has plenty of validity and concur that this is likely a false flag operation. This was a refreshing take from you and no amount of subsequent backpedaling you do can take back your original intent. Such an anti-Russia post from movielover was very unexpected.


Alex, I'll take False Assumptions for $500.

My thoughts are either warlike Azov or CIA / Special Ops.

Let me guess, you think Putin has a fetish for blowing up his own infrastructure. Unneeded. He's already handled Ukraine and depleted NATO stockpiles.

Colonel McGregor has been warning for months that this proxy war could splinter off in many directions, and we don't have statesmen and Obama's Avatar isn't in control.


Haha. Now you're backpedaling, as I figured you would.

Unfortunately, it's already out there in the universe. The internet never forgets.

You have spoken badly about Vladimir Putin and accused him of a false flag operation. I don't think that's the plan, and yet it's what you've done.

This is very sad for movielover.
I hope movielover doesn't live above the second floor.
movielover
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Haloski has poor logic. I stand by the speculation that the drones was launched internally... one guess is the CIA.

Yesterday I wrote: "Is the CIA trying to start WWIII?"
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