dimitrig said:
Cal88 said:
NATO contributed a great deal to creating the conditions which made this war inevitable, by design, with the goal of creating another Afghanistan-like situation for Russia in its western underbelly, in order to weaken Russia, using Ukraine.
Of course the narrative that will be sold to the public is framed in a simplistic good vs bad, big vs small, crazy dictator that can't help but invade his neighbors.
That much is clear if you care to do a bit of research on the subject, you will see that this plan is clearly outlined in works like Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard, or in a recent Rand whitepaper on EE policy, or jf you just listen to a 5min presentations from foremost policy analysts like Mearsheimer, Sachs or Chomsky.
"We must condemn those who wage war, but even more so, those that make it inevitable"
Montesquieu
So Putin was manipulated into doing exactly what NATO wanted him to do, despite it not being in the best interests of Russia?
Why did he play along with it?
Quote:
Everything in this war is going exactly as Russia's leaders planned it.
But also, they totally got duped into it by NATO.
The alternative of not going to war with Ukraine for Russia would have been to have Crimea militarily reconquered by Ukraine, among other bad outcomes for them, a huge, unacceptable political disaster from their perspective. Crimea would have been hard to defend without the Donbass/Sea of Azov land bridge. Also Crimea and the Donbass are not Afghanistan, they are populated by ethnic Russians, and Crimea is vital to them as a warm water port, so they were always going to step up to defend it.
Still, Russia's commitment in this war has so far been somewhat restrained, "Special Military Operation", as opposed to full-on war, mass mobilization and wartime economy mode, because they are aware of the political risks of going all in.
So far Russia has withstood the economic consequences with surprising ease, NATO's expectations of the Russian economy collapsing from their "shock and awe" series of sanctions hasn't materialized. in fact Russia might be the strongest economy in Europe right now in terms of inflation, unemployment, energy/input costs and debt position. Russia is also winning the diplomatic war, outside of the West + 5 Eyes + Japan/SK, doing well in the rest of the world with key players like China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi etc ramping up Russian trade. Their trade with all these countries cited is now at an all time high.
Militarily, despite all the noise in the MSM, Russia is also winning the war of attrition, though their progress on paper is slow. The main aspect here, the body count and military hardware inventory, which heavily favor Russia, has been kept hidden both from the general public and from Ukraine itself. The complete takeover of Bakhmut next week might start to impact and tilt the PR war.