The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Eastern Oregon Bear
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4:59p, 6/7/23
I'm wonder how long before one of Russia's fellow travelers on this board announces that it wasn't Russia or Ukraine who blew up the dam, it was the US or NATO.
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movielover
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In reply to sycasey • 5:19p, 6/7/23
They wouldn't invade... under President Trump.
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Cal88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 5:28p, 6/7/23
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
I'm wonder how long before one of Russia's fellow travelers on this board announces that it wasn't Russia or Ukraine who blew up the dam, it was the US or NATO.

It was Ukraine, using weapons provided by NATO. They did bomb it last Summer and Fall with HIMARS rockets:

Quote:
On 11 July 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a missile attack on the Russian-occupied city of Nova Kakhovka during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia said that Ukraine used HIMARS missiles for the operation, having recently acquired them from the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_attack_on_Nova_Kakhovka

Footage from bombed road across the rim of the dam appears at the end of this video:
https://www.facebook.com/blmediaukraine/videos/russian-media-released-the-footage-of-himars-strikes-on-the-kakhovka-dam-kherson/792436548705499/?locale=ms_MY&_rdr

The Russians still hold that dam, which provides most of the water water to Crimea and the arid south of Ukraine that Russia has annexed, as well as electricity for that region, and water to cool the Zaprrizhie nuclear powerplant, which the Russians also have owned for a year now.

Most of the area flooded is also Russian, and a lot of that land now flooded has elaborate defensive installations that the Russians have painstakingly put in place since their Fall retreat from the right bank of the Dniepr.

The areas held by Ukraine on the the right bank are on higher ground than the Russian-held lands across the river.

So Russia has no incentive in flooding the region. The only reason they could have had to do this is if the Ukrainians attacked and moved a lot of their troops across the river into a strong beachhead position, those troops would then be very vulnerable from a water surge upstream. So the bombing of the dam might pave the way for a Ukrainian invasion in that sector, esp. that they have acquired a lot of amphibious vehicles from countries like Holland.

On a lighter note, here is one such armored vehicle in action:



"In Ukraine, fish catches YOU!"
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In reply to sycasey • 6:21p, 6/7/23
sycasey said:
Goldener Bar said:
How many times do people have to be lied to that Russia did something, only to found out later that it was someone else before they stop being clueless.
How many times do you guys have to be lied to by the same people who insisted Russia would never invade before you stop being clueless?
There's a difference between being lied to (the government and the three letter agencies) and being wrong (saying Russia wouldn't invade). When people pointed out the many times the U.S. assured us that Russia was going to invade and they didn't, they were right. When Russia finally invaded, they were wrong.

When Franklin Foer wrote his column about the Alfa Bank story for Slate.com, he knew that story was bogus, but he wrote it anyway. That's when a journalist is lying to you. And because he was willing to write that column for the Clinton campaign, he has continued insisting that Russiagate is still real, even though we know now it isn't because his reputation is tied to that lie.

Journalists with integrity admit mistakes. Journalists who don't double down on their lies.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Goldener Bar • 7:14p, 6/7/23
Goldener Bar said:
sycasey said:
Goldener Bar said:
How many times do people have to be lied to that Russia did something, only to found out later that it was someone else before they stop being clueless.
How many times do you guys have to be lied to by the same people who insisted Russia would never invade before you stop being clueless?
There's a difference between being lied to (the government and the three letter agencies) and being wrong (saying Russia wouldn't invade. When people pointed out the many times the U.S. assured us that Russia was going to invade and they didn't, they were right. When Russia finally invaded, they were wrong.

When Franklin Foer wrote his column about the Alfa Bank story for Slate.com, he knew that story was bogus, but he wrote it anyway. That's when a journalist is lying to you. And because he was willing to write that column for the Clinton campaign, he has continued insisting that Russiagate is still real, even though we know now it isn't because his reputation is tied to that lie.

Journalists with integrity admit mistakes. Journalists who don't double down on their lies.
OK, you've linked his two stories. Where's a link to the evidence that he knew the Slate story was bogus when he wrote it? 4-D mind reading?
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sycasey
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In reply to Goldener Bar • 9:31p, 6/7/23
Goldener Bar said:
sycasey said:
Goldener Bar said:
How many times do people have to be lied to that Russia did something, only to found out later that it was someone else before they stop being clueless.
How many times do you guys have to be lied to by the same people who insisted Russia would never invade before you stop being clueless?
There's a difference between being lied to (the government and the three letter agencies) and being wrong (saying Russia wouldn't invade. When people pointed out the many times the U.S. assured us that Russia was going to invade and they didn't, they were right. When Russia finally invaded, they were wrong.

When Franklin Foer wrote his column about the Alfa Bank story for Slate.com, he knew that story was bogus, but he wrote it anyway. That's when a journalist is lying to you. And because he was willing to write that column for the Clinton campaign, he has continued insisting that Russiagate is still real, even though we know now it isn't because his reputation is tied to that lie.

Journalists with integrity admit mistakes. Journalists who don't double down on their lies.

Pretty sure most of those "Russia won't invade" guys have not admitted their mistakes.
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sonofabear51
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In reply to sycasey • 10:33p, 6/7/23
They never will.
Start Slowly and taper off
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sycasey
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In reply to sonofabear51 • 10:44p, 6/7/23
sonofabear51 said:
They never will.

I can think of one who very clearly did: Matt Taibbi. He went right back to his usual nonsense after that, but he did admit to being wrong. Not sure who else.
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sonofabear51
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In reply to sycasey • 10:57p, 6/7/23
Good on him. But expect crickets from the rest.
Start Slowly and taper off
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In reply to sonofabear51 • 11:06p, 6/7/23
sonofabear51 said:
Good on him. But expect crickets from the rest.
I suppose if you want apologies from people who said Russia wouldn't invade, you probably should provide examples of people who said it in the first place.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Goldener Bar • 12:40a, 6/8/23
Goldener Bar said:
sonofabear51 said:
Good on him. But expect crickets from the rest.
I suppose if you want apologies from people who said Russia wouldn't invade, you probably should provide examples of people who said it in the first place.
So says the guy who didn't respond when I asked for some evidence for your claim that Franklin Foer knew the Alfa Bank story was bogus when he wrote his column about it.
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Cal88
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4:56a, 6/8/23


"NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA LATE NIGHT JUNE 8
It seems that the much awaited ukrainian counteroffensive has started. Since yesterday a number of waves with ukrainian units has attacked the russian positions south and southwest of Orikhiv. The fighting has been very hard but the ukrainian forces has made only minor gains and according to my russian sources there seems to have been heavy casualities on both sides, but especially on the ukrainian side. The russian MoD will probably claim several thousand killed ukrainians and 50-100 destroyed ukrainian combat vehicles later today.

After several unsuccessfull assaults yesterday with limited artillery support the UkrAF spent a couple of hours long massive artillery barrage on the russian forward positions before resuming attacks during the night but to no avail. For the time being no attacks are ongoing, but large ukrainian formations are in position for resumed attacks. The attacks will probably resume in a couple of hours.

I believe the ukrainian side is disappointed with the lack of progress. They must break through not only the first russian defenceline but a large number of defencelines behind the first one. To achieve success the ukrainian side cannot spend many days with huge losses to break through each defenceline.

The coming three or four days might be some of the most important days in 2023 when it comes to the war. If UkrAF doesn't succeed in breaking through the russian defences and suffer massive casualities during the attempts the summer offensive will be shortlived and a failure. If on the other side ukrainian forces do break through they have to take on the next defenceline and it's starting over again. The only way Ukraine can achieve a significant success is if the russian forces collapse under pressure from the attacks and panic spreads. But that doesn't seem likely at the moment.

Ukraine must get a significant success during the offensive to make it worth the costs. A failure will change the perception of the RuAF both in the West but also in the rest of the world. The likelihood of a ukrainian military victory will disappear. Pressure both within the western countries, but also from the west towards Ukraine, will increase on negotiations to solve the conflict. On the other hand a victoriousl Russia might want to go for a military victory instead of negotiations and use a ukrainian defeat for an major offensive.

For the time going I'm inclined to believe that the most likely outcome is a ukrainian defeat. They have no surprise or numerical superiotity and faces an enemy with superiority in artillery and air power who awaits them in well prepared fortifications. It looks a lot like the battle of Kursk in 1943. When the Third Reich throw all their reserves in an offensive against well prepared Soviet defences and used up all of their carefully gathered reserves during a couple of weeks, without any major success."
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dajo9
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 5:15a, 6/8/23
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Goldener Bar said:
sonofabear51 said:
Good on him. But expect crickets from the rest.
I suppose if you want apologies from people who said Russia wouldn't invade, you probably should provide examples of people who said it in the first place.
So says the guy who didn't respond when I asked for some evidence for your claim that Franklin Foer knew the Alfa Bank story was bogus when he wrote his column about it.


It is wrong to say the Alfa Bank story is bogus. One of the only things the Durham investigation proved was that the FBI never really investigated the Alfa Bank matter. The investigation was "incomplete" according to the head investigator in the FBI. The people who provided the information stand by the story. The Republican led Senate Intelligence Committee said the explanations from team Trump and team Russia were different.

We have no idea what happened with Alfa Bank and team Trump.

Quote:
The defense attorney also grilled Heide about why he was not allowed to interview the source of the Trump-Alfa Bank information.
Heide said his internal requests to interview the source went unanswered, which was "pretty frustrating."
"And that made your investigation incomplete did it not?" Berkowitz asked.
"Yes," Heide said.
https://www.courthousenews.com/fbi-agent-who-drafted-trump-alfa-bank-report-says-he-learned-of-typo-during-meeting-with-feds/
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to sycasey • 8:23a, 6/8/23
sycasey said:
Goldener Bar said:
sycasey said:
Goldener Bar said:
How many times do people have to be lied to that Russia did something, only to found out later that it was someone else before they stop being clueless.
How many times do you guys have to be lied to by the same people who insisted Russia would never invade before you stop being clueless?
There's a difference between being lied to (the government and the three letter agencies) and being wrong (saying Russia wouldn't invade. When people pointed out the many times the U.S. assured us that Russia was going to invade and they didn't, they were right. When Russia finally invaded, they were wrong.

When Franklin Foer wrote his column about the Alfa Bank story for Slate.com, he knew that story was bogus, but he wrote it anyway. That's when a journalist is lying to you. And because he was willing to write that column for the Clinton campaign, he has continued insisting that Russiagate is still real, even though we know now it isn't because his reputation is tied to that lie.

Journalists with integrity admit mistakes. Journalists who don't double down on their lies.
Pretty sure most of those "Russia won't invade" guys have not admitted their mistakes.
Well, they didn't make a mistake, don't ya know? Eastern Ukraine and Crimea were always Russian so they simply reclaimed what was rightly theirs. Blah, blah, blah.
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chazzed
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In reply to movielover • 11:19a, 6/8/23
movielover said:
They wouldn't invade... under President Trump.

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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to chazzed • 11:28a, 6/8/23
chazzed said:


It makes perfect sense when you realize the only people who still listen to Trump are idiots who think he's smart.

Some idiots who don't know what smart people really sound like were convinced by Trump that he was smart. So when he throws up a word salad, like you quoted above, everyone (idiots and non-idiots alike) recognize that it's non-sensical.

The idiots think that Trump is a genius and that they just can't possibly comprehend his brilliance - so they accept his words without even attempting to understand them. The rest of us laugh.

Also, good thread here on the counter-offensive:

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chazzed
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 11:39a, 6/8/23
I just copied and pasted a URL, but you get the credit for filling in the blanks.
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Cal88
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12:56p, 6/8/23
Trump could have just asked/imposed on Ukraine to abide by the Minsk Agreements, that would have prevented this war from happening in the first place.

I guess we're in the "heavy losses" early stages as outlined by the ISW tweet posted above, it looks like the Ukrainian counteroffensive army has already lost about a quarter of its tank fleet, they were at 52 lost (including 8 Leopard 2s) as of Wednesday, out of about 250 dedicated to this operation. Right now it's looking like an open air Bakhmut meat grinder on steroids, with a casualty ratio over 10 to 1. The fact that we're not hearing much about the progress of the operation in the MSM is an indication of how badly this operation has started. The question here is how far can they get through the layers of Russian defensive lines before they run out of equipment, at this rate they can only last a few weeks.

Russian air sorties and bombing/ground attack activities are now at a peak since the start of the war, they've been making a big dent into Ukrainian forces, which are operating on open fields without ground cover and with a very limited air defense.

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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 1:32p, 6/8/23
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Goldener Bar said:
sonofabear51 said:
Good on him. But expect crickets from the rest.
I suppose if you want apologies from people who said Russia wouldn't invade, you probably should provide examples of people who said it in the first place.
So says the guy who didn't respond when I asked for some evidence for your claim that Franklin Foer knew the Alfa Bank story was bogus when he wrote his column about it.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxd3y5/docs-prominent-journo-showed-draft-of-narrative-driving-russiagate-story-to-oppo-firm
Quote:
Last fall, Foer was at the center of a mini-scandal in the Fox News cinematic universe. Court documents filed in relation to the indictment of Hillary Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussman on charges of lying to the FBI appeared to show that Foer had sent the first 2,500 words of a draft of that second, highly influential article to Fusion GPSthe opposition-research firm behind the infamous "Steele dossier"ahead of the article's publication on Slate on October 31, 2016. The firm, the court filings revealed, had told him it was "time to hurry," at least suggesting that it wanted the unconvincing conspiracy theory to be published ahead of the November 8 general election, in time to influence the results, and that Foer was serving as its catspaw.

Sending a draft of a story to a source ahead of its publication isand is widely regarded as a red-letter journalistic offense, the sort of thing that generates stories when even the hint of it arises. (As an editor at the website you are now reading, I am routinely across communications in which reporters explain to sexual assault survivors, scientists, experts in a variety of fields, and other people that they simply cannot review stories before they are published.)

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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:56p, 6/8/23






More talk of NATO entering the war. Aren't Biden-Obama-Clintion-Valerie Jarret smart?



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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 5:41p, 6/8/23
movielover said:

More talk of NATO entering the war. Aren't Biden-Obama-Clintion-Valerie Jarret smart?



To the last Ukrainian Lithuanian Pole?
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movielover
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11:22a, 6/9/23


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movielover
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4:35p, 6/9/23
Colonel Douglass McGregor claims in the Ukranian probing attacks, 71 Russian deaths, and 4,000 Ukranians KIA.

Russian bloggers claim Russia now has our Abrams Lite tanks for reverse engineering.

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Cal88
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8:23a, 6/10/23
Ukraine has already lost 1/5th of its Leopard 2A6 fleet, its most advanced tanks given by Germany and EU. Russia has also taken out an Iris radar platform, which runs Ukraine's best remaining AA missile systems. They've made heavy use of their KA-52 Alligator and Lancet drones which have had field days attacking Ukrainian columns in flat open ground without cover or air support.



The early stages of the Spring Offensive for Ukraine have been an unmitigated disaster so far, we've gone from a 7 to 1 casualty advantage in Bakhmut to well above 20 to 1 last week, with 5,000+ Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded. Russian general Surovikin's strategy of building strong defensive positions across a shorter LOC after he took over last Fall turned out to be the right move for them, as did his withdrawal from the right bank of the Dniepr, where his troops would have been stranded should the dam upstream be blown up.

Mikael Valtersson

@MikaelValterss1

Former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence, former defence politician and chief of staff Sweden Democrats. Current political and military analyst.



"ANALYSIS INFOWAR AFTERNOON JUNE 9
If this kind of videos continue to come for a couple of weeks the entire view of ukrainian and russian capabilities might reverse, as they did in March 2022. Before March 2022 everybody thought that RuAF was highly qualified and a mighty military power. After March 2022 RuAF became ridiculed as parade soldiers totally unsuited for real war. From having been compared to the german Wehrmacht in WWII, they now became the Italians from WWII. Sorry Italy I don't mean any disrespect, but that's how you're ( a bit unfairly) seen.

The UkrAF got instead a fantastic reputation as super warriors, at least in the West. This view of ukrainian and russian military capability coloured everybody. Russian military bloggers had of course a higher opinion of their side, but many lost there former confidence and sometimes acted like nervous wrecks at the smallest negative information.

But if the ukrainian counteroffensive fails after what seems to be an endless series of suicidal banzai attacks, everybody will be as shocked, as they where in March 2022, but this time about surprising russian prowess and as surprising ukrainian ineptitude. Everything could change in a couple of weeks even in the information war. And that could have an enormous impact of the western will to support Ukraine.

An Ukraine with diminishing support from the west, destroyed strategic reserves and lost confidence would go toward a dismal future. A second large refuge wave westwards are just one, of many, possible consequences and there would also be a much increased risk for collapses at the front.

We will have to wait and see. Many people accuse me of being prorussian, but the main thing is that I don't buy the western narrative of a worthless russian military and one-sided proukrainian propaganda figures of russian losses. But I have been as sceptical of russian propaganda as of ukrainian. In many westerners eyes this mean that your prorussian, because you can't be objective when the light fight the darkness. But I have always respected the ukrainian military, both in quality and courage. That's why I sit flabbergasted looking on one video after another like this one.

In northern mythology the brave warriors goes to the supreme god Odin's hall of Valhalla when they die. Most know that, but fewer know that the brave AND smart warriors comes to the godess Freya's hall Sessrumner. For now it starts to feel like it's the russian army that's coming to Sessrumner and the ukrainians to Valhalla.

I must finish that I have the uttermost respect for the bravery of the attacking ukrainian soldiers who march/drive straight into hell."

NEWS UPDATE UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA NIGHT JUNE 10
Much and nothing happened at the front. There was intense fighting all the day and no progress for UkrAF. Instead RuAF 291th Regiment, that has held the hardest hit part of the front retook what they lost yesterday in front of Robotino. Several attacks has been conducted by UkrAF both during yesterday and the night, to no avail.

Losses are hard to estimate but Russian MoD Claims 35 tanks and 30 armoured vehicles. Accordind to video confirmation that at least 6 tanks (5 German Leopard 2A6/A4 tanks and 1 Czech T-72M1 tank), 6 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (American M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA) and 5 Armored Personal Carriers (3 American MRAP M1224 MaxxPro, 1 Dutch YPR-765 armored personnel carrier and 1 French VAB armored car) has been destroyed.

According to several sources Ukraine has thrice the number of armored vehicles available to attack again tomorrow. That's the same as a brigade, with 50 tanks and 100 other armored vehicles. We'll see what's happening tomorrow,"
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 4:20p, 6/10/23
So far, reports of the spring 'probing attacks' buttress the military assessments of Colonel McGregor, Scott Ritter, HistoryLegends and Cal88.

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movielover
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4:43p, 6/10/23
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Cal88
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5:42p, 6/10/23
Looks like the Ukrainians are massing troops on the southern front and are going to throw tens of thousands of troops, 200-300 tanks into this offensive, The question is, how much resources are they going to burn into this, and will they be able to sustain a Russian counteroffensive?

Tokmak is the key city in this battle, it is the Bakhmut of southern Ukraine, the main roads south towards Melitopol, Berdyansk run through it. Ukraine's main goal is to disrupt the land bridge to Crimea, and this is where the cutoff could be achieved. There is no doubt that Ukraine is willing to throw up to 40,000 troops into this attempt to take Tokmak. The question is, can they get there, and how many soldiers/tanks/AFVs is that going to take...



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DiabloWags
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10:36a, 6/11/23
Nord Stream Sabotage Probe Turns to Clues Inside Poland

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422
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11:07a, 6/11/23
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1:05p, 6/11/23

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4:56p, 6/12/23

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8:12p, 6/12/23
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9:15a, 6/13/23
Months and months later, after previous explanations failed, Biden-Obama-Sullivan come up with this??

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movielover
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10:45a, 6/13/23
New HistoryLegends video, ugly for Ukraine.

Comments below the video more balanced, rational, and informative than most biased BI rants.

One called it a suicide mission; another said criminal to send in tanks without air support; a third noted the poor numeric odds.

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BearHunter
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11:01a, 6/13/23


Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine
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