3 keys to Ukraine peace
"With the war in Ukraine hitting the 500-day mark today, three big things have to go right to achieve peace, Axios' Dave Lawler reports.
1. The diplomacy: Former senior U.S. officials have met with well-connected Russians, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, to try and set the stage for potential peace talks, NBC News reports.
Ukrainian officials told CIA Director Bill Burns on a secret visit last month to Kyiv that they believe if Ukrainian forces advance in the east and move within striking distance of Crimea in the south, Russia will negotiate in order to avoid defeat and keep control of the occupied peninsula, The Washington Post reports.
2. The counteroffensive: Ukraine has yet to bring many of its Western-armed-and-trained troops into the fight.
The British Ministry of Defense estimates Russia's force is so depleted that Moscow couldn't mount an offensive of its own.
What to watch: The White House is expected to provide cluster munitions to help Ukraine attack Russian entrenchments, despite concerns that dud bombs could endanger civilians.
3. The nuclear threat: Officials in Washington and Beijing are taking the prospect seriously.
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Putin in March against using nuclear weapons, according to a report this week in the Financial Times.
The U.S., U.K. and France informed Putin they'd attack Russia with non-nuclear means if he used a tactical nuclear weapon."
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/07/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia-putin-nuclear-Axios
*In the old days, this would have been considered a cheery assessment by the American Right. Today they view it as depressing as someone challenging the Trickle Down Theory and tax cuts for the wealthy.
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