Excellent points. But I think that quote underestimates the impact if state-sanctioned violence in the eastern Russia-dominated regions in the years leading up to the war. The Crimea is another under-appreciated aspect of the conflict imo.

How many people even know that Ukraine is a relatively new country, or that Crimea was part of Russian for hundreds of years?

China is expanding its footprint in Central and South America, and now a mystery buyer has purchased $800 Million in agriculture land - 55,000 acres - around Travis AFB.

Mystery group buys $800 M worth of land around Travis Air Force Base, suing 8 other families for land acquisition.

Some land being bought at 8-10 times its value.

China? Gates Foundation?

"We're very, very concerned about this," said Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA08). "It's so extensive and so secret and it's impossible to get any information about what's happening here...."

"...Garamendi says the attorney representing Flannery Associates indicated the firm is made up of a group of families, 97 percent of whom are allegedly American, looking to diversify their portfolio from equities to real assets - including agricultural land."

https://abc7news.com/travis-afb-air-force-base-flannery-associates-llc-john-garamendi/13527836/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12277263/USAF-investigates-mystery-company-thats-bought-55-000-acres-major-California-Air-Force-base.html

Apparently, Russia trying to erase the sovereign nation of Ukraine from the face of the map is not enough. Now Russia is trying to invoke a global famine by attacking ukranian farm exports.

But the Russians are the good guys.

You forgot we bombed NS 1 and 2 and put numerous embargoes on Russia?

movielover said:

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You forgot we bombed NS 1 and 2

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Love how you guys keep stating this like it's a fact.

It sure wasn't Iceland or Gabon.

Joe Biden publicly threatened NS, and his functionaries were pleased after it was blown up. It hurt Russia and Europe, and Israel has no dog in the fight.

golden sloth said:

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Apparently, Russia trying to erase the sovereign nation of Ukraine from the face of the map is not enough. Now Russia is trying to invoke a global famine by attacking ukranian farm exports.

But the Russians are the good guys.

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Shh, Russian propaganda doesn't permit the criticism of Russia for any reason. That's how they can continue to pretend the war is going well.

Igor Girkin, war criminal, terrorist and Russia's most prominent pro-war milblogger was just arrested for daring to criticize the progress of the war effort (eg he was pointing out how poorly it was going).

BREAKING:

Igor Girkin has been arrested in Moscow & will be prosecuted for “spreading extremism” (criticizing Putin for failing to win the war in Ukraine)

Girkin’s armed men played a leading role in the invasion of Crimea in February 2014 and the start of fighting in the Donbas pic.twitter.com/SckBdZevZr

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 21, 2023

Igor Girkin is not an opposition leader or 'Putin critic'. Girkin is a Russian terrorist and war criminal, responsible for war crimes in Ukraine since 2014, downing the #MH17 flight and the deaths of hundreds of people 🧵
Please RT pic.twitter.com/HoKBPBRWVT

— Yarema Dukh 🇺🇦 (@yarko) July 21, 2023

He deserves to be in jail for numerous crimes, but that's not why he's there. He's in jail because when he tells the truth about the war it runs counter to Russian propaganda.

One of his supporters, a neo-nazi supported by the Kremlin in their attempt to separate the donbas (which they continue to pretend was a civil war) was arrested for supporting Girkin.

The shills like to talk about Ukraine's corruption, but it doesn't hold a candle to Russia's. If Russia were in Europe, it would be by far the most corrupt nation in Europe.

But sure, let's pretend Russia and Putin are doing the lord's work and that this war is going to plan.

For anyone interested, I've mentioned Girkin a few times before:.

Feb: https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2136880
Feb again: https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2138939
April: https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2162782
May: https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/107414/replies/2168231

He desperately wants Russia to win, wants to destroy Ukraine but he knows what's really happening. He isn't content to just amplify Putin's talking points any more so he's got to be eliminated. I guess since he's a hero to so many Russians, they can't just have him fall out of a window like other critics.

sycasey said:

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movielover said:

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You forgot we bombed NS 1 and 2

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Love how you guys keep stating this like it's a fact.

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We need to diligently find out who's responsible like OJ is looking for Nicole's killer.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Lather, rinse, repeat...

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When did NATO admit Ukraine, again?

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Ukraine is, by design, NATO's proxy army. What NATO country would tolerate even 1,000 of its own dying in a war... They struck gold with Ukraine, which already has half a million casualties, and is still going.

The plan is to get Ukraine into NATO after a war that would be stretched out as long as possible in order to inflict as much damage as possible on Russia, regardless of the toll on Ukraine. The main reason Ukraine wasn't given official NATO membership is because of Article 5, but Ukraine has been a de facto NATO country since 2014.

---

I'm pretty sure if any NATO country was invaded as Ukraine was the population would absolutely tolerate dying in a war to defend themselves. Of course, that wouldn't have to happen because they're in NATO.

---

Abiding by Minsk would have preserved Ukraine and stemmed off the Russian invasion. However Ukraine is run by a corrupt government that pushes an ethnocentric ideology rooted in 1930s/40s Banderism. This radical ideology has been carefully promoted in order to destabilize Russia.

If Zelensky and co truly had concern for the nation they are supposed to represent, they would have made an effort to avoid this war, or at the very least stuck to their guns last year with the Istanbul peace agreement, instead of sending hundreds of thousands of their men to their graves.

The main aspect about NATO and Ukraine is that Ukraine has received more military aid than the entire military budget of every NATO member except for the US.

The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member.

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"The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member."

No. No, they would not have.

dimitrig said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Lather, rinse, repeat...

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When did NATO admit Ukraine, again?

---

Ukraine is, by design, NATO's proxy army. What NATO country would tolerate even 1,000 of its own dying in a war... They struck gold with Ukraine, which already has half a million casualties, and is still going.

The plan is to get Ukraine into NATO after a war that would be stretched out as long as possible in order to inflict as much damage as possible on Russia, regardless of the toll on Ukraine. The main reason Ukraine wasn't given official NATO membership is because of Article 5, but Ukraine has been a de facto NATO country since 2014.

---

I'm pretty sure if any NATO country was invaded as Ukraine was the population would absolutely tolerate dying in a war to defend themselves. Of course, that wouldn't have to happen because they're in NATO.

---

Abiding by Minsk would have preserved Ukraine and stemmed off the Russian invasion. However Ukraine is run by a corrupt government that pushes an ethnocentric ideology rooted in 1930s/40s Banderism. This radical ideology has been carefully promoted in order to destabilize Russia.

If Zelensky and co truly had concern for the nation they are supposed to represent, they would have made an effort to avoid this war, or at the very least stuck to their guns last year with the Istanbul peace agreement, instead of sending hundreds of thousands of their men to their graves.

The main aspect about NATO and Ukraine is that Ukraine has received more military aid than the entire military budget of every NATO member except for the US.

The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member.

---

"The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member."

No. No, they would not have.

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Waste of time to argue what ifs>

OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Lather, rinse, repeat...

---

When did NATO admit Ukraine, again?

---

Ukraine is, by design, NATO's proxy army. What NATO country would tolerate even 1,000 of its own dying in a war... They struck gold with Ukraine, which already has half a million casualties, and is still going.

The plan is to get Ukraine into NATO after a war that would be stretched out as long as possible in order to inflict as much damage as possible on Russia, regardless of the toll on Ukraine. The main reason Ukraine wasn't given official NATO membership is because of Article 5, but Ukraine has been a de facto NATO country since 2014.

---

I'm pretty sure if any NATO country was invaded as Ukraine was the population would absolutely tolerate dying in a war to defend themselves. Of course, that wouldn't have to happen because they're in NATO.

---

Abiding by Minsk would have preserved Ukraine and stemmed off the Russian invasion. However Ukraine is run by a corrupt government that pushes an ethnocentric ideology rooted in 1930s/40s Banderism. This radical ideology has been carefully promoted in order to destabilize Russia.

If Zelensky and co truly had concern for the nation they are supposed to represent, they would have made an effort to avoid this war, or at the very least stuck to their guns last year with the Istanbul peace agreement, instead of sending hundreds of thousands of their men to their graves.

The main aspect about NATO and Ukraine is that Ukraine has received more military aid than the entire military budget of every NATO member except for the US.

The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member.

---

"The other point here is that Russia would have gone to war with Ukraine over Crimea, even if Ukraine were an official NATO member."

No. No, they would not have.

---

Waste of time to argue what ifs>

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Russia won't attack a NATO member nation.

We don't need to speculate about that.

Russia going to war against Ukraine to defend Crimea regardless of NATO status is far more probable than NATO ever accepting as a full-fledged member a country that has a hot border dispute with Russia.

In the past, both western and Russian/Soviet leaders understood this dynamic, that's why western leaders willingly maintained buffer neutral states like Finland and Austria.

Cal88 said:

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Russia going to war against Ukraine to defend Crimea regardless of NATO status is far more probable than NATO ever accepting as a full-fledged member a country that has a hot border dispute with Russia.

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Moving the goalposts again.

Cal88 said:

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Russia going to war against Ukraine to defend Crimea regardless of NATO status is far more probable than NATO ever accepting as a full-fledged member a country that has a hot border dispute with Russia.

In the past, both western and Russian/Soviet leaders understood this dynamic, that's why western leaders willingly maintained buffer neutral states like Finland and Austria.

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This is possibly one of the few truthful statements you have ever written on this topic.

The chances of Ukraine becoming a NATO member were low and Russia is the aggressor. I am glad you admit that.

As for Finland, it does have a border dispute with Russia and it is a NATO member now.

Austria would likely be welcomed into NATO anytime it decides to but they are opposed for reasons that are unclear.

Austria, like Hungary, has a proud national cultural heritage, their legacy from having been the center of the Habsburg empire for several centuries. So they are less prone to subsume their military leadership, which would be the result of a NATO membership.

Finland doesn't have a territorial dispute with Russia, that would be like saying Germany has a territorial dispute with Russia over Kaliningrad.

Quote:

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The chances of Ukraine becoming a NATO member were low and Russia is the aggressor. I am glad you admit that.

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"Russia is the aggressor" ignores the basic circumstances that have led to this war and made it inevitabe, which I have clearly outlined 3 times already just recently, and which you are still ignoring here.

Two years into this war, Amy Goodman and Democracy Now finally get around to covering the subject of neo-nazi ideology in Ukrainian armed forces. Stanford U., which has hosted and glorified Azov Battalion leaders, is prominently featured:

The latest report from HistoryLegends on the failure and autopsy of the Ukraine Counteroffensive:



One important item he has highlighted was that Ukrainian military leaders themselves (esp. Zaluzhny) didn't believe that the offensive methods would work but felt obliged to conduct the frontal attack on Russian positions without air cover just to comply with NATO demands.


Spectacular explosion of a large stash of cluster ammunition, likely a part of the most recent NATO/US donation package, hit by a Geran drone:

It’s like all of you are saying: it appears that a cluster munition depot went up in smoke. pic.twitter.com/QOBl0QtCPu

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) July 21, 2023

Poland won't let former bronze medalist Russian tennis player enter country to play tournament as she is considered "undesirable.". Poland refuses entry of those they feel support the actions of Russia and Belarus.

https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/russian-player-zvonareva-blocked-entering-poland-2023-07-22/

dimitrig said:

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Russia won't attack a NATO member nation.

We don't need to speculate about that.

---

Poland certainly hopes you're right. Putin's revanchist fantasies don't end with Ukraine, however.

His recent statements on Poland reinforce just how disingenuous all of the defenses of Putin have been - the entire predicate for the war was a lie and no amount of agenda-driven repetition (see my recent post on Russian disinformation) will make it true.

“The western territories of present-day Poland are a gift from (Soviet tyrant Joseph) Stalin to the Poles, have our friends in Warsaw forgotten about this?” he added. “We will remind you.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 22, 2023

I tell as many as I can. The conflict in Ukraine is about much more than Ukraine. Putin would not have stopped at Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for their survival but also for Europe & the global international order the U.S. thrives in. This is why we must support Ukraine, more! https://t.co/dMnMWe9cAU

— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) July 21, 2023

Fortunately, Putin has his hands full with his debacle in Ukraine and it's just going to be harder and harder to con people into believing the propaganda (apart from receptive useful idiots of course).

One of the main ways that Russia spreads its low-grade wartime propaganda internally is through its network of kremlin-linked "milbloggers." They are a source of a lot of the propaganda we see in this thread and it's often thinly-veiled fiction. If anyone were interested in fact-checking the shills like I used to before I started using the ignore function, they would see that the vast majority of their claims are misleading or outright false.

Unfortunately, they have a never-ending source of state-sponsored propaganda that makes it far easier for them to flood the zone with garbage than for us to fact-check them but you should assume that almost everything they claim (especially when they use numbers - casualty numbers, kill ratios, projections, etc. - is utter garbage. As I mentioned before it was common for useful idiots to refer to a Will Shryver fiction about the kill ratios in Bakhmut that was written in June 2022 to make a claim about kill ratios just a few months ago. Textbook Russian firehose of falsehoods behavior.

But with more and more of these milbloggers (some of whom are also active combatants) either facing arrest for departing from the Putin line or just being killed while serving in Ukraine, it's only going to get harder for Russia to continue to pretend that this stupid unprovoked revanchist war has been a success.

Demilitarised: Russian RIA Novosti correspondent and combatant Rostislav Zhuravlev has died as a result of a successful Ukrainian artillery strike near Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region.

As the Russian blogger Zhivov points out, the crew was filming operation of MLRS units in the… pic.twitter.com/qWZLt4U1jo

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 22, 2023

Russian officials are cracking down on "turbo-patriots", volunteers and other "fascist scum", as claimed in Solovyev's live show, following the arrest of Girkin. The host of the show says it's time to "clear this space, only run fundraisers officially".

This messaging is… pic.twitter.com/9eqmXOP3Ni

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 22, 2023

Misha "Misha in Donbas" Luchin had around 22k followers on Telegram, he was taking part in the battle of Bakhmut as a UAV unit commander.

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 20, 2023

Russia opened a criminal case against Colonel of GRU Vladimir Kvachkov, a close Girkin's ally and a member of the "Angry Patriots Club", accusing him of discrediting the Russian Armed Forces. pic.twitter.com/rkdMCBAT5x

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 19, 2023

I think we all know what will follow this post.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

---

Russia won't attack a NATO member nation.

We don't need to speculate about that.

---

Poland certainly hopes you're right. Putin's revanchist fantasies don't end with Ukraine, however.

His recent statements on Poland reinforce just how disingenuous all of the defenses of Putin have been - the entire predicate for the war was a lie and no amount of agenda-driven repetition (see my recent post on Russian disinformation) will make it true.

“The western territories of present-day Poland are a gift from (Soviet tyrant Joseph) Stalin to the Poles, have our friends in Warsaw forgotten about this?” he added. “We will remind you.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 22, 2023

I tell as many as I can. The conflict in Ukraine is about much more than Ukraine. Putin would not have stopped at Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for their survival but also for Europe & the global international order the U.S. thrives in. This is why we must support Ukraine, more! https://t.co/dMnMWe9cAU

— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) July 21, 2023

Fortunately, Putin has his hands full with his debacle in Ukraine and it's just going to be harder and harder to con people into believing the propaganda (apart from receptive useful idiots of course).

One of the main ways that Russia spreads its low-grade wartime propaganda internally is through its network of kremlin-linked "milbloggers." They are a source of a lot of the propaganda we see in this thread and it's often thinly-veiled fiction. If anyone were interested in fact-checking the shills like I used to before I started using the ignore function, they would see that the vast majority of their claims are misleading or outright false.

Unfortunately, they have a never-ending source of state-sponsored propaganda that makes it far easier for them to flood the zone with garbage than for us to fact-check them but you should assume that almost everything they claim (especially when they use numbers - casualty numbers, kill ratios, projections, etc. - is utter garbage. As I mentioned before it was common for useful idiots to refer to a Will Shryver fiction about the kill ratios in Bakhmut that was written in June 2022 to make a claim about kill ratios just a few months ago. Textbook Russian firehose of falsehoods behavior.

But with more and more of these milbloggers (some of whom are also active combatants) either facing arrest for departing from the Putin line or just being killed while serving in Ukraine, it's only going to get harder for Russia to continue to pretend that this stupid unprovoked revanchist war has been a success.

Demilitarised: Russian RIA Novosti correspondent and combatant Rostislav Zhuravlev has died as a result of a successful Ukrainian artillery strike near Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region.

As the Russian blogger Zhivov points out, the crew was filming operation of MLRS units in the… pic.twitter.com/qWZLt4U1jo

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 22, 2023

Russian officials are cracking down on "turbo-patriots", volunteers and other "fascist scum", as claimed in Solovyev's live show, following the arrest of Girkin. The host of the show says it's time to "clear this space, only run fundraisers officially".

This messaging is… pic.twitter.com/9eqmXOP3Ni

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 22, 2023

Misha "Misha in Donbas" Luchin had around 22k followers on Telegram, he was taking part in the battle of Bakhmut as a UAV unit commander.

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 20, 2023

Russia opened a criminal case against Colonel of GRU Vladimir Kvachkov, a close Girkin's ally and a member of the "Angry Patriots Club", accusing him of discrediting the Russian Armed Forces. pic.twitter.com/rkdMCBAT5x

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 19, 2023

I think we all know what will follow this post.

---

A half dozen or more posts over the next 24 hours explaining how Russia was justified in invading Ukraine because Ukraine looked at them funny (all of eastern Europe belongs to Russia because <history> and what those countries want is irrelevant), Ukraine is losing on the battle field 176-0 (Alexandr Anonymous said so), 97% of the Ukraine army and politicians are Banderite Nazis building concentration camps for Russophones and Russia's economy is out producing the rest of the world by a 10-1 ratio.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I think we all know what will follow this post.

---

A half dozen or more posts over the next 24 hours explaining how Russia was justified in invading Ukraine because Ukraine looked at them funny, Ukraine is losing on the battle field 176-0 (Alexandr Anonymous said so), 97% of the Ukraine army and politicians are Banderite Nazis building concentration camps for Russophones and Russia's economy is out producing the rest of the world by a 10-1 ratio.

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Exactly, the lies just get more and more exaggerated like Baghdad Bob.

Ukraine has taken out a few large Russian military targets lately (primarily in Crimea), so Russia decided to strike back purely for propaganda purposes by lighting up the Chudniv artillery depot. Chudniv was only used to store obsolete munitions (including rocket fuel for old Soviet ICBMs) that were ready for disposal and would play no role in this war. The depot wasn't a high priority target and wasn't defended for obvious reasons but it creates big fireworks which is ideal for the propaganda war. If you go on twitter right now, there are tons of kremlin-linked propagandists amplifying this story as if it somehow helps advance Russian interests. Mission accomplished.

Sites like this have very little impact on the current conflict these sites such as Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, Khmelnytskyi Munitions Depot and Chudniv Munitions Depot share a common theme. All three of these sites had vast amounts of obsolete, and outdated solid fuel and…

— Intelschizo (@OSINTMISCIF) July 22, 2023

Meanwhile, Ukraine used British storm shadows deep in Crimea, proving yet again that Russia's much vaunted air defenses don't work anywhere close to as well as they pretend. Russia's rampant military corruption siphoned off a lot of the cash required to make things work (design, manufacture, quality control, maintenance, etc.) which is a big part of why Russia's is faring so poorly in the war despite all of the claims about their world-best capabilities.

It wasn't long ago that Russian shills (probably in this thread) were claiming that the storm shadows were no threat to the Russian military.

And by the way - there is no dispute about what happened in Crimea. Even Russian state media has confirmed.

Kiev strikes ammunition depot in Crimea – official

Governor Sergey Aksyonov has ordered a mass evacuation from the danger zonehttps://t.co/79tdYfrnOO pic.twitter.com/BfI6EiRAoQ

— RT (@RT_com) July 22, 2023

Russian Mil-Analyst/Propagandist Rybar reported that the strike today on the Russian ammunition dump at the Oktyabr'skoye airfield in Crimea was the first recorded use of Storm Shadow "long range" cruise missiles hitting occupied Crimea.

Note: The ammo depot is about 120-miles… pic.twitter.com/47JYm7ksbd

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) July 22, 2023

Appears Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike on an airfield & oil depot outside of Simferopol in Russian-occupied Crimea. Videos posted to local Telegram channels show explosions & smoke billowing from area. Kremlin-installed authorities said Crimea bridge was briefly closed. pic.twitter.com/oXAa2c1vkg

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 22, 2023

By the way, we are talking about the largest aviation airfield of the #Black_Sea Fleet of the #Russian_Federation.

Meanwhile, #Crimea's Gauleiter #Aksyonov announced a drone strike on infrastructure facilities in the #Krasnogvardiy district. pic.twitter.com/3N3qKrrOfT

— Putin's IBS (@kardinal691) July 22, 2023

EDIT: For anyone interested in an informed take on the current Ukraine offensive and where it is heading, check this out. Obviously, will be met with furious propaganda claiming that Russia is winning the casualty ratio 1000:1 and has already won the war but has decided not to inform the world about their success yet.

🧵New "Karl" thread on developments in Ukraine and Russia, as told to @holger_r and me. Pushes back, as you'd expect, on the emerging conventional wisdom about the counteroffensive, etc.

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) July 22, 2023

Unit2Sucks said:

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EDIT: For anyone interested in an informed take on the current Ukraine offensive and where it is heading, check this out. Obviously, will be met with furious propaganda claiming that Russia is winning the casualty ratio 1000:1 and has already won the war but has decided not to inform the world about their success yet.

---

We went from "Ukraine is winning the war" to there is "no evidence Russia is winning".

So according to U2S' latest pair of firehose megaposts, Ukraine is winning because they've managed to kill a couple of bloggers and Russian officers, and that all that Russia ever manages to destroy are "obsolete" munitions dumps. And that the recent reports from the NYT or WaPo that have stated that Ukraine had already lost a third of the counteroffensive equipment it had been painstakingly accumulating since last year without anything to show for, well those NYT and WaPo reports also are Russian propaganda. because Russkie shills/useful idiots have suddenly taken over the NYT newsroom.

Quote:

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Meanwhile, Ukraine used British storm shadows deep in Crimea, proving yet again that Russia's much vaunted air defenses don't work anywhere close to as well as they pretend. Russia's rampant military corruption siphoned off a lot of the cash required to make things work (design, manufacture, quality control, maintenance, etc.) which is a big part of why Russia's is faring so poorly in the war despite all of the claims about their world-best capabilities.

It wasn't long ago that Russian shills (probably in this thread) were claiming that the storm shadows were no threat to the Russian military.

And by the way - there is no dispute about what happened in Crimea. Even Russian state media has confirmed.

---

Ukraine has had Storm Shadows/Scalp missiles for two months now, and have only managed a handful of major hits like this one above in Crimea, despite having launched several dozen attacks with these cruise missiles, whose supply is very limited in numbers. That's because the majority of these attempts have been blocked by Russian Pantsirs and S-300s. Most of the time when the SCALPs get through it is because they have found occasional gaps in Russian AA installations.

BearHunter said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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EDIT: For anyone interested in an informed take on the current Ukraine offensive and where it is heading, check this out. Obviously, will be met with furious propaganda claiming that Russia is winning the casualty ratio 1000:1 and has already won the war but has decided not to inform the world about their success yet.

---

We went from "Ukraine is winning the war" to there is "no evidence Russia is winning".

---

Ukrainian columns are still getting trounced, trying to advanced on mined greyzones while getting picked off by Lancet drones, Kornet ATGMs and finished off by Ka-52 attack helicopters. This has happened over and over again the last 7 weeks. almost all Ukrainian losses have been incurred without them ever seeing or engaging their Russian counterparts.



There is a new development however, the Russians have massed a large force in the north and are breaking through the frontlines, threatening to overrun and outflank Ukrainian positions. The gambit is to cut off and surround Ukrainian forces committed on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.

With Putin showing more and more overt aggression against Poland (some of which I recently shared), I expect the propaganda to ramp up.

Watch for useful idiots here to talk about how Poland supported the Nazis and NATO support blah blah blah justifies Russia attacking Poland.

Puts into stark contrast how disingenuous Putin's predicate for the unprovoked war against Ukraine was. Pretty clear that appeasing Putin would just have provoked him to take even more.

Mercenaries from PMC "Wagner" were moved to Belarus to attack Poland and seize the Suwalki corridor, Russian MP Kartapolov reveals Putin's brilliant plan pic.twitter.com/B7WNn3FfYA

— TheKremlinYap (@TheKremlinYap) July 15, 2023

During his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko said that Wagnerites want to "go on a sightseeing tour" to Poland. pic.twitter.com/Era3hxgzx7

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 23, 2023

Attention, Poland!

Russian propagandists think that Putin's discussions of history yesterday are a warning to Poland. pic.twitter.com/jmgkWkqyOp

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 22, 2023

Unit2Sucks said:

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In case anyone is still under the misimpression that morale is high among people being forced to fight this invasion for Russia, here's even more evidence of what is really happening.

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For every sketchy video of alleged Russian mutiny, there are ten legit Ukrainian videos like this new one here of decimated Ukrainian platoons refusing to be finished off at the meat grinder:

⚡️ wow, Ukrainians made a desperate appeal to Zelensky against being massacred on the Antonovsky Bridge, say they are sent to die so their commanders can keep their payments - less than 20% of their battalion is alive pic.twitter.com/BEYsYUOXwX

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) July 24, 2023

This is not the first case of Ukrainian rank and file soldiers protesting against their superiors pocketing the pay of dead soldiers. It's also the reason why Ukraine doesn't bother picking up the majority of its KIA bodies. The human losses are kept of the books, and their salaries are pocketed by their superiors, who become financially incentivized to send their soldiers on suicide missions.

Also, there are dozens of videos showing Ukrainian men being forcibly gang pressed and conscripted, none that I've seen of Russians carrying the same type of activities. Then you have stuff like this in Ukraine, a mentally handicapped Ukrainian men being conscripted, his mother protesting at her local city hall:

A mentally disabled man after doctors assessed him as "fit for service" was drafted. This is inhumane 😞
Zelensky you bastard! pic.twitter.com/KqX2lpI20H

— Susann (@ZenWorld16) July 24, 2023

Quote:

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Much ink has been spilled on Ukraine's (and NATO's) artillery shortage. Here's a thread that provides some detail on the ramping efforts to produce more. The cost of plain artillery is relatively low for NATO to bear (particularly when measured against missiles and fighters), so we're starting to see an acceleration of production ramping - what previously had been projected to take 4 or 5 years is now being pulled forward to 2025 or earlier.

There's still a lot of fog of war about actual artillery usage and production (on both sides) but it's clear that Russia's pace early in the war was unsustainable and burned down the vast majority of their decades-old stockpile. They've been reduced to supplementing current production with purchases from Iran and others as well as using obsolete and unfit artillery which is even less accurate than their normal stuff. Due to rampant corruption, a lot of the military funding that should be going to build and maintain high quality munitions is siphoned off.

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By 2025 the war will be most likely be over, Ukraine doesn't have the human and material resources to keep fighting this war of attrition for another two years. Until 2025, or whatever projected date NATO gives, Russia will continue to outproduce all of NATO combined by a large margin.

As well there is not much fog of war on the actual ammunition usage rate, that aspect of the war has been properly documented by western sources like RUSI.

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But hey, on the bright side, it's helped Putin build what some say is the largest fortune in the world - with estimates as high as $200B. He leveraged some of his ill-gotten gains to build what might be the most valuable private home in the world - valued at $1.4B and located a few hours from Crimea on the Black Sea. And it's now within range of Ukraine's storm shadows.

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Putin rose through the ranks in 1990s Russia because he had built a personal reputation of not being corrupt, which was pretty unusual for Russian officials at the time. You can say what you want about him, bloody dictator, bad hombre, genocidal maniac, crazy dude etc, but he is clearly not motivated by money, It's not like he was ever going to retire in the Bahamas or Cannes, his future is in Russia. He already is in the pages of Russian history as one of their most important rulers. The average Russian credits him for having saved Russia from complete economic, social, cultural, and also national collapse in the 1990s-00s.

dimitrig said:

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The chances of Ukraine becoming a NATO member were low and Russia is the aggressor. I am glad you admit that.

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Putin88 will never admit what a self-own this statement is and how it completely undermines every argument excuse he has made for the Russian invasion.

blungld said:

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dimitrig said:

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The chances of Ukraine becoming a NATO member were low and Russia is the aggressor. I am glad you admit that.

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Putin88 will never admit what a self-own this statement is and how it completely undermines every argument excuse he has made for the Russian invasion.

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Mearsheimer, Burns, Sachs, Chomsky and co aren't in the business of making excuses, they are high-level analysts who don't delve into the wartime storyboarding meant for the masses.

I think their analysis is quite solid, and just because I agree with that analysis doesn't make me any kind of a shill, it just means that I am able to defend a sound but unpopular opinion.

What do you think should happen in this war,

• Should Ukraine continue to fight a war of attrition it is almost certain to lose? For how long?
• Do you believe all, or even most, new conscripts are willingly drafted?
• Wouldn't Ukraine have been better off just abiding by Minsk Agreements, or signing a peace deal conceding Crimea, the Donbass and the land bridge to Russia, and adopting neutrality back in March 22, 16 months and 200,000+ Ukrainian lives ago?
• How many more lives are needed until they start working on a realistic and reasonable settlement?
• Should Ukrainians in the south and east be allowed to use their own language in their media, education system, businesses and public administration without any prejudice?
• Should all monuments and urban thoroughfares recently built and named to the glory of the OUN/UPA be destroyed, abolished, renamed and the dozens of WW2-era figures they honor be publicly and officially repudiated by the Ukrainian government and local officials? Should the nationalist ideology be modified to include minorities?

But U2S says Ukraine will start receiving increased ammo supplies ... in 2025.

And that's one of his bright spots.