The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

936,948 Views | 10272 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by Cal88
movielover
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10% For The Big Guy said:





At least six months late. Desperate for men and ammunitions, with no answers for either.

Then add the death blow, the Hamas - Israel war.
Cal88
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The war was going to end sometime next year anyway with Russia pressing its advantages on the battlefield, but the war in Israel has certainly accelerated the process.

The pivotal front today is Avdeevka, in the southeastern corner of battlefront, where the Russians are encircling 20k-30k Ukrainian troops. The fall of Avdeevka is going to be a milestone in the war.

Good writeup by a generally pro-Ukrainian analyst from Brazil:



"Ukraine is bravely fighting for Avdiivka, but the support from allies is not sufficient.

Avdiivka has been the site of Moscow's largest offensive in months, and the Ukrainian forces have strong fortifications in place.

However, the Russian forces are advancing slowly, using aviation and a high number of FAB bombs. The supply lines for Ukraine have been reduced to a narrow corridor, but they are still operational.

In the short and medium term, Ukraine can hold the front, but the future is uncertain due to two factors: manpower and new deliveries.

At the start of the war, Ukraine had 38 maneuver brigades, including infantry and tank units, along with 9 artillery brigades organized in the Soviet style.

For the battle of Avdiivka, units were transferred from the Zaporozhye direction, including the 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, often referred to as the "NATO" brigade.

This highlights the issue of reserves, despite having drafted 1.2 million people to the army during 17 waves of mobilization, according to the lists of Ukrainian volunteers.

Recently, an officer from the 54th separate mechanized brigade, Alexander Afanasyev, mentioned on a Ukrainian TV channel that the army mainly consists of older men (+50).
He expressed concern, stating that there is a lack of young soldiers in the trenches, which is a significant problem.

To launch a counter-offensive, Ukraine formed 20 new brigades and utilized a total of 47 brigades throughout the operation. Currently, the main Ukrainian brigades involved in combat are the 31st, 47th, 53rd, 72nd, 59th, and 110th separate mechanized brigades, along with the 79th separate airborne assault brigade, the 55th separate artillery brigade, and the 3rd assault brigade, defending Avdiivka and Marynka.

The 14th, 32nd, 41st, 88th, 66th, 67th, and 57th brigades are defending the Kupiansk direction, while the 80th separate airborne assault brigade and the 93rd separate mechanized brigade are fighting in the Bachmut direction.

Only the 3rd separate mechanized brigade and the 76th are currently fighting in the south of Ukraine. While the 79th separate amphibious assault brigade and the 35th of AFU are deployed near the Dnipro River.

Although I have counted 22 brigades, some special elite units are in movement, and other brigades may be rotating. There are people who closely track these brigades and can provide more information, but it appears that some brigades may have merged.

Manpower is one of Ukraine's problems, along with slow delivery of new equipment.

The European defense industry is no longer capable of large-scale military production. Furthermore, there is a limited global supply of gunpowder, plastic explosives, TNT, and more recently Tungsten, leading to justify slow deliveries.

Additionally, the involvement of Israel and war fatigue among European politicians further complicates the situation.

While the Russians are suffering heavy losses and demanding equipment, Ukraine faces challenges in terms of manpower and equipment replacement. The Russians can replenish their losses with more men and the last change in draft age, added 1.5M men elegible for draft. Additionally, a greater quantity, albeit of varying quality, of equipment. As additional suppliers, Russia has two highly militarized allies, namely NK and Iran.

As I mentioned in one of my articles three months ago, the allies made a mistake by eating the Russian bait. They engaged in an attrition war without fully understanding the Russian industrial capacity and where the global military supply chain is located.

For example, China manufactures over 80% of the world's Tungsten, while Russia is a major producer of chemicals used in explosives and, along with China, one of the few countries with significant production of the new CL-20 explosive.

The prognosis for Ukraine is not favorable, and this situation should prompt Europe to reflect on its defense sector. Europe must move away from buying expensive boutique weapons, and instead focus on building extensive war capabilities, as evidenced by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

*This war will indeed have profound effects on global arms industries and supply chains.

*The allies have the ability to continue slowing down the supply to Ukraine for several months, until the manpower becomes unsustainable."

movielover
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Does Berkeley Bowl sell crow?
Cal88
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movielover said:

10% For The Big Guy said:



At least six months late. Desperate for men and ammunitions, with no answers for either.

Then add the death blow, the Hamas - Israel war.

There has been a definite turnaround in NATO policy that is reflected in the MSM, the notion that Ukraine has to negotiate a settlement. as such the media are starting to manage expectations with reports like the recent Time cover story about Zelensky being delusional, one year after honoring him as Time Person of the Year.

Ukraine would have gotten much better terms and avoided the loss of nearly 1 million war casualties had they taken the Istanbul peace deal a year and a half ago, which Boris and co scuttled.

Ukraine needs to stop the war right now as the outcome is no longer in doubt for rational observers. This would probably entail a change in government, perhaps a pragmatic faction of the military.

I think Zelensky is taking a hard line because he could otherwise be killed by the Banderite nationalists, he probably wants to step down and retire from politics abroad scot-free, with his billion.

Russia is going to keep fighting until Ukraine agrees to the following terms:
- Demilitarization and neutrality
- Recognition of minority rights
- Denazification - dissolving paramilitary organizations like Azov or Right Sector, removal of all monuments dedicated to Bandera of former OUN/UPA leaders, renaming roads, changing school curricula associated with the 1930s-40s, reopening of WW2 war memorials honoring the war against Nazi Germany etc
- Current borders recognized. The UN could demand a new referendum to approve the annexation of the 4 Ukrainian oblasts into Russia.

dajo9
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Quite interesting that now that Putin is dead there is talk of a cease fire
movielover
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Kiev Post: HUR
HUR Reveals Russia's Missile Stockpile and Production Capacity


The number of missiles Russia has in stock is pretty much the same as last year. This suggests that Moscow can keep making these missiles and keep enough on hand.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23736

Previously

Russia Boosts Missile Production Despite Sanctions, Increases Ukrainians' Vulnerability

The expansion in Russia's missile stockpiles, in spite of Western sanctions, threatens to impose another exceptionally harsh and challenging winter for Ukrainians.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21576
movielover
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Russia producing 7 times the ammunition than the West, including production in Turkey and Armenia. All at a much lower cost.



Why don't our 44 4-star Generals and Admirals set up low-cost production in the Philippines?
oski003
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movielover said:

Russia producing 7 times the ammunition than the West, including production in Turkey and Armenia. All at a much lower cost.



Why don't our 44 4-star Generals and Admirals set up low-cost production in the Philippines?


Why are Ukrainian military leaders blowing up their family with grenades? This sounds like something Okaydo would post in Today in Cops, so the nitwits can conclude all cops are bad.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/live-grenade-birthday-gift-kills-top-aide-to-ukraines-military-chief/
Unit2Sucks
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A Serbian political scientist who was a professor in Moscow before the war argues that people are missing the point on peace talks in Ukraine because peace won't help Putin personally.

The main point is that ending this disaster of a war will cement the fact that they didn't accomplish much and that it won't result in an end to sanctions or any improements in the lot of the ordinary lives of Russian citizens. As long as this is the case, Putin would rather slowly bleed out than accept a ceasefire and no longer be able to pretend he's achieving meaningful objectives for his people. Certainly makes sense that we won't see any movement by Putin before the next sham election next spring.


movielover
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Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.



This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Big C
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movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.



This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.



Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

PS: Reagan is rolling over in his grave when he hears people like you (which is fine with me, because he was a dolt, too).
Cal88
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Big C said:

movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.


This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

Russia is not depleted, and has not underperformed, according to many independent military analysts. They've lost around 50k-60k KIAs, with a sizable part of those being Wagner paramilitary and DPR/LPR militias, Compared to their standing army of 750,000+ those losses are not huge. As well that army is now the most experienced large army in the world by a longshot, and that experience is in cutting edge 21st century drone warfare.

They basically took on all of NATO, which has invested well over $100 billion in military aid and trained hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, and destroyed Ukraine"s million man army. Ukraine went through 17 mobilization rounds and conscripted 1.2 million soldiers. Russia has significantly upgraded its military capacity going from complete noobs in drone warfare to the current world leaders. They are also world leaders in electronic warfare and stand-off weaponry, with the complete range, from MLRS, PGMs/JDAMs to hypersonic missiles.

They've managed to ramp up significantly their MIC and production levels without much disruption to their civilian economy. They produce high-quality, battle-tested efficient weapons at low costs and in very high volumes that NATO cannot match.

The young and smart who wanted to flee have already left, fearing a draft and a larger war, but those are unlikely today, as Russia is currently dominating the battlefield and doesn't have military manpower issues. As well the Russian economic outlook is positive, with no unemployment, virtually no debt, positive GDP growth this year and the next, and growing purchasing power.
Cal88
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Excellent synopsis of the Ukraine crisis and a road map to solving it going forward, provided by Jeffrey Sacks:



I agree completely with his assessments, he has been a voice of sanity from the center-left.
movielover
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Does Big C have a reading comprehension problem, or is he being purposefully obtuse?

Colonel McGregor claims there were two stages to the war - Russia going in 'soft' to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table (which worked, til we nixed it); and Russia then mobilizing its considerable resources.

Even the puppet Zelensky recently commented on Russia's air superiority frustrating their newly attempted offensive. Ukraine's million man army may now be 500K KIA, 75K amputees, and 400K injured. Transportation difficulties likely pushed countless severe injuries into KIA.

Most everything Colonel McGregor, Cal88, and Scott Ritter have asserted have come true. The war in Gaza ironically may save another six months of Ukrainian bloodshed.

Last weekend I checked out the new City Center in San Ramon. A mid-30s Ukranian family was there, I can't blame them. Half a Million men butchered for our mumbling President and incompetent military.

Cal88, while I wish we didn't need it, I have one potential solution for our ammunition problem. Cut a long-term deal with the Philippines, and produce lower-skilled items at Subic Bay. (155 shells, for example.) I'm told their average wage is $1 an hour. What do you think? I'd fast track it, but I know the MIC will want to frobnicate with it.

And get Zelensky out of the country, now.
Unit2Sucks
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Big C said:



Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?
Mostly just copium from Putin fans. There is no reason to believe that Russia is in a better position now than before the war, other than of course from the benefits from wrecking Ukraine's economy and preventing it from competing with Russia for EU business.

Read this thread and tell me this is a sign of strength for Russia lol.


Ukrainian drones have wreaked havoc on valuable Russian equipment. Does that make Russia stronger?



Look at the number of aircraft and ships the Russian military has lost during the war. Does that make Russia stronger? Russia's black sea fleet is under repeated attack and Russia has had to recall ships because they can't protect them.

I'm sure your post will be responded to with a bunch of magical thinking and made up numbers but everyone with half a brain knows that wars are damaging to all sides, even the victor. At this point, it's clear that both sides are losing quite a lot in this war, and the only question is when this disaster ends and whether anyone will achieve any of the goals they have for continuing fighting.

I think Zelensky is pretty clear on why they are still fighting. And we know why Putin is still fighting and that it has nothing to do with any of the pretextual reasons that his shills continue to risibly pretend matter to anyone.



Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Big C said:



Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?
Mostly just copium from Putin fans. There is no reason to believe that Russia is in a better position now than before the war, other than of course from the benefits from wrecking Ukraine's economy and preventing it from competing with Russia for EU business.

Read this thread and tell me this is a sign of strength for Russia lol.

Ukrainian drones have wreaked havoc on valuable Russian equipment. Does that make Russia stronger?

Look at the number of aircraft and ships the Russian military has lost during the war. Does that make Russia stronger? Russia's black sea fleet is under repeated attack and Russia has had to recall ships because they can't protect them.

I'm sure your post will be responded to with a bunch of magical thinking and made up numbers but everyone with half a brain knows that wars are damaging to all sides, even the victor. At this point, it's clear that both sides are losing quite a lot in this war, and the only question is when this disaster ends and whether anyone will achieve any of the goals they have for continuing fighting.

I think Zelensky is pretty clear on why they are still fighting. And we know why Putin is still fighting and that it has nothing to do with any of the pretextual reasons that his shills continue to risibly pretend matter to anyone.

The magical thinking occurs when you post a video of one Ukrainian hit and extrapolate from it that Russia has incurred big losses in equipment.

The Russian air force has lost around 10% of its fleet, mostly ground attack Su-25s which are much more exposed by the nature of their mission. I would guess the Russian navy has lost less than 10% of its tonnage, and the losses of anti-air equipment from Ukrainian hits as shown above have been relatively rare, the main losses there have been from depletion through use against NATO cruise missiles, ATACMs, MLRS etc. Still they started out with a gigantic inventory and aren't going to run out of AA missiles or platforms anytime soon.

The Ukrainian equipment losses have been a kind of reverse mirror image of Russian losses. Whereas the Russians have lost 10% of their air force, Ukraine has lost 90+%, and 90%-95% of their anti-air defenses, their navy and tank fleet, including the material sent by NATO.

The reason Zelensky is still fighting is because he has to watch his back from the Banderites, who earlier this week went as far as bombing Zaluzhny's assistant home after Zaluzhny showed a significant lack of enthusiasm to the cause of fighting to the last Ukrainian, saying that the war has come to a stalemate.

Quote:

Ukraine's Gen. Valery Zaluzhny surprised observers of the invasion this week with an unusually candid assessment that the warring parties had reached a deadlock along the sprawling front.

"Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate," he told The Economist.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/11/06/world/politics/ukraine-war-grim-assessment/
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:

movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.


This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

Russia is not depleted, and has not underperformed, according to many independent military analysts. They've lost around 50k-60k KIAs, with a sizable part of those being Wagner paramilitary and DPR/LPR militias, Compared to their standing army of 750,000+ those losses are not huge. As well that army is now the most experienced large army in the world by a longshot, and that experience is in cutting edge 21st century drone warfare.

They basically took on all of NATO, which has invested well over $100 billion in military aid and trained hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, and destroyed Ukraine"s million man army. Ukraine went through 17 mobilization rounds and conscripted 1.2 million soldiers. Russia has significantly upgraded its military capacity going from complete noobs in drone warfare to the current world leaders. They are also world leaders in electronic warfare and stand-off weaponry, with the complete range, from MLRS, PGMs/JDAMs to hypersonic missiles.

They've managed to ramp up significantly their MIC and production levels without much disruption to their civilian economy. They produce high-quality, battle-tested efficient weapons at low costs and in very high volumes that NATO cannot match.

The young and smart who wanted to flee have already left, fearing a draft and a larger war, but those are unlikely today, as Russia is currently dominating the battlefield and doesn't have military manpower issues. As well the Russian economic outlook is positive, with no unemployment, virtually no debt, positive GDP growth this year and the next, and growing purchasing power.

Disagree that Russia has "basically taken on all of NATO". Not only has NATO not put boots on the ground, they have also not given Ukraine their best stuff and have been careful not to fight an offensive war (rightly so, given that the last thing we want is for this war to spread or, worse, to "go nuclear").

I have seen what stupid wars have done to the US over the past more-than-half-a-century. This is trillions that we could have invested in education and infrastructure. There is a cost and Russia will be paying it. Sadly, we are paying, too, to a lesser extent and Ukraine already has.
Cal88
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.


This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

Russia is not depleted, and has not underperformed, according to many independent military analysts. They've lost around 50k-60k KIAs, with a sizable part of those being Wagner paramilitary and DPR/LPR militias, Compared to their standing army of 750,000+ those losses are not huge. As well that army is now the most experienced large army in the world by a longshot, and that experience is in cutting edge 21st century drone warfare.

They basically took on all of NATO, which has invested well over $100 billion in military aid and trained hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, and destroyed Ukraine"s million man army. Ukraine went through 17 mobilization rounds and conscripted 1.2 million soldiers. Russia has significantly upgraded its military capacity going from complete noobs in drone warfare to the current world leaders. They are also world leaders in electronic warfare and stand-off weaponry, with the complete range, from MLRS, PGMs/JDAMs to hypersonic missiles.

They've managed to ramp up significantly their MIC and production levels without much disruption to their civilian economy. They produce high-quality, battle-tested efficient weapons at low costs and in very high volumes that NATO cannot match.

The young and smart who wanted to flee have already left, fearing a draft and a larger war, but those are unlikely today, as Russia is currently dominating the battlefield and doesn't have military manpower issues. As well the Russian economic outlook is positive, with no unemployment, virtually no debt, positive GDP growth this year and the next, and growing purchasing power.

Disagree that Russia has "basically taken on all of NATO". Not only has NATO not put boots on the ground, they have also not given Ukraine their best stuff and have been careful not to fight an offensive war (rightly so, given that the last thing we want is for this war to spread or, worse, to "go nuclear").

I have seen what stupid wars have done to the US over the past more-than-half-a-century. This is trillions that we could have invested in education and infrastructure. There is a cost and Russia will be paying it. Sadly, we are paying, too, to a lesser extent and Ukraine already has.

NATO has thrown the kitchen sink when it comes to artillery, including guns/cannons, MLRS, ATGMs (anti-tank), shells/ammo, cruise missiles, tanks, anti-air systems and constant satellite reconnaissance and intelligence assistance.

The only things NATO hasn't provided are fighter jets and infantry in large numbers. The former because it isn"t practical (they would get shot down fast, and are easily targeted on the ground) and the latter because there isn't enough motivation or stomach for any NATO country to absorb the kind of horrific losses Ukrainian troops have been taking being on the wrong side of 20,000 shells per day.
movielover
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I'm sure NATO has our 'advisors', strategists, intell, eyes in the sky, etc.

It's a Catch 22, but we should have sent hospital crews to Poland for assistance and experience.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.



This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.


This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

Russia is not depleted, and has not underperformed, according to many independent military analysts. They've lost around 50k-60k KIAs, with a sizable part of those being Wagner paramilitary and DPR/LPR militias, Compared to their standing army of 750,000+ those losses are not huge. As well that army is now the most experienced large army in the world by a longshot, and that experience is in cutting edge 21st century drone warfare.

They basically took on all of NATO, which has invested well over $100 billion in military aid and trained hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, and destroyed Ukraine"s million man army. Ukraine went through 17 mobilization rounds and conscripted 1.2 million soldiers. Russia has significantly upgraded its military capacity going from complete noobs in drone warfare to the current world leaders. They are also world leaders in electronic warfare and stand-off weaponry, with the complete range, from MLRS, PGMs/JDAMs to hypersonic missiles.

They've managed to ramp up significantly their MIC and production levels without much disruption to their civilian economy. They produce high-quality, battle-tested efficient weapons at low costs and in very high volumes that NATO cannot match.

The young and smart who wanted to flee have already left, fearing a draft and a larger war, but those are unlikely today, as Russia is currently dominating the battlefield and doesn't have military manpower issues. As well the Russian economic outlook is positive, with no unemployment, virtually no debt, positive GDP growth this year and the next, and growing purchasing power.

Disagree that Russia has "basically taken on all of NATO". Not only has NATO not put boots on the ground, they have also not given Ukraine their best stuff and have been careful not to fight an offensive war (rightly so, given that the last thing we want is for this war to spread or, worse, to "go nuclear").

I have seen what stupid wars have done to the US over the past more-than-half-a-century. This is trillions that we could have invested in education and infrastructure. There is a cost and Russia will be paying it. Sadly, we are paying, too, to a lesser extent and Ukraine already has.

NATO has thrown the kitchen sink when it comes to artillery, including guns/cannons, MLRS, ATGMs (anti-tank), shells/ammo, cruise missiles, tanks, anti-air systems and constant satellite reconnaissance and intelligence assistance.

The only things NATO hasn't provided are fighter jets and infantry in large numbers. The former because it isn"t practical (they would get shot down fast, and are easily targeted on the ground) and the latter because there isn't enough motivation or stomach for any NATO country to absorb the kind of horrific losses Ukrainian troops have been taking being on the wrong side of 20,000 shells per day.

Agree (of course) that we have supplied them with lots and lots and lots of stuff. But supposedly even the Abrams tanks we have started to send them are not the most current version. In addition, we have not sent them a lot of long-range stuff that they could theoretically use to attack deep across the Russian border.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the US/NATO were to really duke it out with Russia, without having to worry about it escalating into a nuclear conflagration, we would kick their butts with a combined air and ground attack. But good for all that we don't want to do that. Then, add in the nukes and that is a place that only fools would go.
bearister
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movielover said:

I'm sure NATO has our 'advisors', strategists, intell, eyes in the sky, etc.

It's a Catch 22, but we should have sent hospital crews to Poland for assistance and experience.


I remember this scene from Catch-22 freaking me out in the theater. I had never seen anything like that before. I was 16.

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
movielover
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Big C said:

movielover said:

Alek is a hoot.

This is rich, given the influence and role of Ukranian Nazis in this SMO.

This didn't age well. Russia now has an active, experienced military of about one Million men with another 200K in the pipeline, no depletion of munitions, and new alliances with Iran, Turkey, Armenia and North Korea - resulting in a far lower cost of production than the depleted West, and 7x the production capacity.

Yeah, sure: Russia is fighting a war against a smaller, lesser power. Maybe they will eke out a victory, but the war lasted much longer than they thought and they underperformed in front of the entire world.

Now they are depleted and yet... they are somehow stronger?!? Because they have formed alliances with smaller, weaker, loser countries?

Let's say you are young and smart and educated and live in Russia: You're looking to get the hell out of there.

Russia is not depleted, and has not underperformed, according to many independent military analysts. They've lost around 50k-60k KIAs, with a sizable part of those being Wagner paramilitary and DPR/LPR militias, Compared to their standing army of 750,000+ those losses are not huge. As well that army is now the most experienced large army in the world by a longshot, and that experience is in cutting edge 21st century drone warfare.

They basically took on all of NATO, which has invested well over $100 billion in military aid and trained hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops for nearly a decade, and destroyed Ukraine"s million man army. Ukraine went through 17 mobilization rounds and conscripted 1.2 million soldiers. Russia has significantly upgraded its military capacity going from complete noobs in drone warfare to the current world leaders. They are also world leaders in electronic warfare and stand-off weaponry, with the complete range, from MLRS, PGMs/JDAMs to hypersonic missiles.

They've managed to ramp up significantly their MIC and production levels without much disruption to their civilian economy. They produce high-quality, battle-tested efficient weapons at low costs and in very high volumes that NATO cannot match.

The young and smart who wanted to flee have already left, fearing a draft and a larger war, but those are unlikely today, as Russia is currently dominating the battlefield and doesn't have military manpower issues. As well the Russian economic outlook is positive, with no unemployment, virtually no debt, positive GDP growth this year and the next, and growing purchasing power.

Disagree that Russia has "basically taken on all of NATO". Not only has NATO not put boots on the ground, they have also not given Ukraine their best stuff and have been careful not to fight an offensive war (rightly so, given that the last thing we want is for this war to spread or, worse, to "go nuclear").

I have seen what stupid wars have done to the US over the past more-than-half-a-century. This is trillions that we could have invested in education and infrastructure. There is a cost and Russia will be paying it. Sadly, we are paying, too, to a lesser extent and Ukraine already has.

NATO ... or stomach for any NATO country to absorb the kind of horrific losses Ukrainian troops have been taking being on the wrong side of 20,000 shells per day.


Agree (of course) that we have supplied them with lots and lots and lots of stuff. But supposedly even the Abrams tanks we have started to send them are not the most current version. In addition, we have not sent them a lot of long-range stuff that they could theoretically use to attack deep across the Russian border.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the US/NATO were to really duke it out with Russia, without having to worry about it escalating into a nuclear conflagration, we would kick their butts with a combined air and ground attack. But good for all that we don't want to do that. Then, add in the nukes and that is a place that only fools would go.


Abrams tank - correct; we took off the protective outer armor so Iran / China don't get ahold of one and copy it.

Our Army reportedly isn't our strength - we're a naval and aviation power. We aren't hitting our recruitment goals. Some claim Russia now has the most advanced integrated air defense system. We're not battle tested, and our Military leaders went along with this disastrous war to "weaken" Russia. We can't even supply 155 shells and have no surge production capacity.
Zippergate
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Abrams tank - correct; we took off the protective outer armor so Iran / China don't get ahold of one and copy it.


Somehow I doubt that. I have a feeling the Chinese have copied it and distributed it before most of our army gets it, the same kind of thing they do with Hollywood movies.
Unit2Sucks
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UFA continuing to increase its presence across the Dnipro.




Apologies in advance for the propaganda that this is sure to trigger. And, on the subject of pathetic Russian lies, here's a morbid laugh.


movielover
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Zippergate said:


Abrams tank - correct; we took off the protective outer armor so Iran / China don't get ahold of one and copy it.


Somehow I doubt that. I have a feeling the Chinese have copied it and distributed it before most of our army gets it, the same kind of thing they do with Hollywood movies.


Possibly. Maybe Dianne Feinstein's driver sent over the engineering diagrams.
Cal88
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Unreal.
movielover
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500K killed, and Russia is now far stronger.
dajo9
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Putin, who is dead, began this war by launching an attack of 10 battalion units directly at Kyiv. There was also an airlift of troops to the nearby Hostomel airport. Most of the world, the media, and myself thought that Kyiv would soon fall.

The Russian battalion units were somehow surprised to find that Ukraine could be very muddy. The units sought paved road and converged into a massive traffic jam. The vulnerable, plodding 35+ mile traffic jam met resistance from untrained locals all along the route. Bridges were blown up, signs taken down, and the Russian army was completely befuddled. Russian logistics and command was exposed as laughably bad. The butt of jokes.

Eventually the traffic jam reached the outskirts of Kyiv where it stalled under intense bombardment. After about a month the defeated Russians retreated leaving behind a graveyard of military vehicles.

All the goals now are massive scalebacks from the original goals of Putin's War. The war is already a Russian humiliation and has been since its first months. Russia has lost. The West has won.

No European capital need have any fear of Russia.

I look forward to the propaganda response prepared by Putin, who is dead.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944.amp
sycasey
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dajo9 said:

Putin, who is dead, began this war by launching an attack of 10 battalion units directly at Kyiv. There was also an airlift of troops to the nearby Hostomel airport. Most of the world, the media, and myself thought that Kyiv would soon fall.

The Russian battalion units were somehow surprised to find that Ukraine could be very muddy. The units sought paved road and converged into a massive traffic jam. The vulnerable, plodding 35+ mile traffic jam met resistance from untrained locals all along the route. Bridges were blown up, signs taken down, and the Russian army was completely befuddled. Russian logistics and command was exposed as laughably bad. The butt of jokes.

Eventually the traffic jam reached the outskirts of Kyiv where it stalled under intense bombardment. After about a month the defeated Russians retreated leaving behind a graveyard of military vehicles.

All the goals now are massive scalebacks from the original goals of Putin's War. The war is already a Russian humiliation and has been since its first months. Russia has lost. The West has won.

No European capital need have any fear of Russia.

I look forward to the propaganda response prepared by Putin, who is dead.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944.amp

Pretty much. I note that the Russia fans now have to act like holding on to a much smaller territory near the Russian border (at incredible cost) has to be framed as some great victory for Russia. The goalposts are constantly moving for these people, who claim they are never wrong.

That's not even mentioning the previously neutral countries that have been convinced to join NATO, supposedly the thing Putin was most concerned about.
dajo9
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

Putin, who is dead, began this war by launching an attack of 10 battalion units directly at Kyiv. There was also an airlift of troops to the nearby Hostomel airport. Most of the world, the media, and myself thought that Kyiv would soon fall.

The Russian battalion units were somehow surprised to find that Ukraine could be very muddy. The units sought paved road and converged into a massive traffic jam. The vulnerable, plodding 35+ mile traffic jam met resistance from untrained locals all along the route. Bridges were blown up, signs taken down, and the Russian army was completely befuddled. Russian logistics and command was exposed as laughably bad. The butt of jokes.

Eventually the traffic jam reached the outskirts of Kyiv where it stalled under intense bombardment. After about a month the defeated Russians retreated leaving behind a graveyard of military vehicles.

All the goals now are massive scalebacks from the original goals of Putin's War. The war is already a Russian humiliation and has been since its first months. Russia has lost. The West has won.

No European capital need have any fear of Russia.

I look forward to the propaganda response prepared by Putin, who is dead.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944.amp

Pretty much. I note that the Russia fans now have to act like holding on to a much smaller territory near the Russian border (at incredible cost) has to be framed as some great victory for Russia. The goalposts are constantly moving for these people, who claim they are never wrong.

That's not even mentioning the previously neutral countries that have been convinced to join NATO, supposedly the thing Putin, who is dead, was most concerned about.


FIFY
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:



Pretty much. I note that the Russia fans now have to act like holding on to a much smaller territory near the Russian border (at incredible cost) has to be framed as some great victory for Russia. The goalposts are constantly moving for these people, who claim they are never wrong.

That's not even mentioning the previously neutral countries that have been convinced to join NATO, supposedly the thing Putin was most concerned about.
Yes, the Putin fans sound like successories. There is no rational basis to conclude that Russia is in better shape now than prior to its invasion. The funny thing is that if Putin wasn't more interested in building his corrupt kleptocratic petro-state through revanchism, he could have easily leaned closer to the West and kept his gravy train rolling indefinitely but instead opted for this dumb war which has been a humanitarian disaster for Russians and Ukrainians alike.

Shills:


Reality:

Cal88
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The main goals for Russia are within its reach next year. In terms of military objective, their goal is to win the war of attrition, which they largely are.

Ukraine's main military goal this year was to break through towards the Sea of Azov and to cut off the land bridge to Crimea. That goal has been a huge and very costly failure, where their army was asked to rush well-defended, heavily mined Russian positions without any air cover. They threw a lot of their better remaining troops and materiel into this poorly-conceived offensive, pushed by NATO.

Ukraine is showing signs of exhaustion today, the average age of their military is 43, they went through 17 conscription round and most of the 1.2 million soldiers have been KIA or wounded.

https://www.businessinsider.com/average-age-ukrainian-soldier-43-amid-personnel-problems-2023-11



Ukraine is also running out of ammunition and military equipment, it depends entirely on NATO, while Russia has significantly stepped up its military production. Zaluzhny recently admitted that Ukraine can no longer win.


Quote:

Zaluzhny seems almost puzzled that the arsenal supplied to Ukraine by its Western allies, and the mobilization of several more brigades, has made so little difference. Changing commanders and moving divisions have had no impact, he says.

"Four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again," he adds. Instead, deep and well-entrenched Russian defenses have been impossible to penetrate. Even where dense minefields are penetrated, often at great cost, the Russians restore them through remote mine-laying.

Ukraine's inferiority in the air has stymied advances on the ground, and Zaluzhny warns that at the end of 2023, Russia may deploy new attack squadrons.

The use of drones and other reconnaissance technology is at the heart of the stalemate. Zaluzhny talks about the carnage unfolding around Avdviika as Russia throws dozens of tanks into taking a few hundred meters.

"The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing, and they see everything we are doing."
At the same time he acknowledges that the Russian military has learnt and adapted. It has improved logistics chains, factories are churning out new hardware and its electronic warfare capabilities have blunted Ukraine's edge in precision munitions.

Zaluzhny candidly admits that Russia "will maintain an advantage in armaments, equipment, rockets, and ammunition for some time."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/03/world/ukraine-president-warns-long-attritional-war/index.html

In the end, this whole war would have proved to be a completely unnecessary carnage where Ukraine is taking lopsided losses and where it will be forced to accept conditions that are far worse than what they would have had in a Minsk or Istanbul type settlement 1 or 2 years ago.

Ukraine was pushed into this unnecessary - and unwinnable - war by NATO, used as a pawn in the game of geopolitics.
Zippergate
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But we're learning so much...



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-lGc4hX0AAL2Wg?format=jpg&name=900x900
golden sloth
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I checked up on this thread after checking out a few months ago (and believe me I'm happy I did that). I see the idiots are still flooding the zone with bad and intentionally misleading information, spouting off wild and outlandish claims that contradict previous statements and positions while also having no semblance of actually coming true. All this while always claiming they were right all along.

I'm happy I disengaged from the idiots and trolls.
10% For The Big Guy
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golden sloth said:

I checked up on this thread after checking out a few months ago (and believe me I'm happy I did that). I see the idiots are still flooding the zone with bad and intentionally misleading information, spouting off wild and outlandish claims that contradict previous statements and positions while also having no semblance of actually coming true. All this while always claiming they were right all along.

I'm happy I disengaged from the idiots and trolls.
Here's some news you may have missed out on.


The war's over. Russia won. The U.S. lost. All that remains is to divvy up what's left.

Sorry you got it all wrong and are bitter about it.
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