The war was going to end sometime next year anyway with Russia pressing its advantages on the battlefield, but the war in Israel has certainly accelerated the process.
The pivotal front today is Avdeevka, in the southeastern corner of battlefront, where the Russians are encircling 20k-30k Ukrainian troops. The fall of Avdeevka is going to be a milestone in the war.
Good writeup by a generally pro-Ukrainian analyst from Brazil:
"Ukraine is bravely fighting for Avdiivka, but the support from allies is not sufficient.
Avdiivka has been the site of Moscow's largest offensive in months, and the Ukrainian forces have strong fortifications in place.
However, the Russian forces are advancing slowly, using aviation and a high number of FAB bombs. The supply lines for Ukraine have been reduced to a narrow corridor, but they are still operational.
In the short and medium term, Ukraine can hold the front, but the future is uncertain due to two factors: manpower and new deliveries.
At the start of the war, Ukraine had 38 maneuver brigades, including infantry and tank units, along with 9 artillery brigades organized in the Soviet style.
For the battle of Avdiivka, units were transferred from the Zaporozhye direction, including the 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, often referred to as the "NATO" brigade.
This highlights the issue of reserves, despite having drafted 1.2 million people to the army during 17 waves of mobilization, according to the lists of Ukrainian volunteers.
Recently, an officer from the 54th separate mechanized brigade, Alexander Afanasyev, mentioned on a Ukrainian TV channel that the army mainly consists of older men (+50).
He expressed concern, stating that there is a lack of young soldiers in the trenches, which is a significant problem.
To launch a counter-offensive, Ukraine formed 20 new brigades and utilized a total of 47 brigades throughout the operation. Currently, the main Ukrainian brigades involved in combat are the 31st, 47th, 53rd, 72nd, 59th, and 110th separate mechanized brigades, along with the 79th separate airborne assault brigade, the 55th separate artillery brigade, and the 3rd assault brigade, defending Avdiivka and Marynka.
The 14th, 32nd, 41st, 88th, 66th, 67th, and 57th brigades are defending the Kupiansk direction, while the 80th separate airborne assault brigade and the 93rd separate mechanized brigade are fighting in the Bachmut direction.
Only the 3rd separate mechanized brigade and the 76th are currently fighting in the south of Ukraine. While the 79th separate amphibious assault brigade and the 35th of AFU are deployed near the Dnipro River.
Although I have counted 22 brigades, some special elite units are in movement, and other brigades may be rotating. There are people who closely track these brigades and can provide more information, but it appears that some brigades may have merged.
Manpower is one of Ukraine's problems, along with slow delivery of new equipment.
The European defense industry is no longer capable of large-scale military production. Furthermore, there is a limited global supply of gunpowder, plastic explosives, TNT, and more recently Tungsten, leading to justify slow deliveries.
Additionally, the involvement of Israel and war fatigue among European politicians further complicates the situation.
While the Russians are suffering heavy losses and demanding equipment, Ukraine faces challenges in terms of manpower and equipment replacement. The Russians can replenish their losses with more men and the last change in draft age, added 1.5M men elegible for draft. Additionally, a greater quantity, albeit of varying quality, of equipment. As additional suppliers, Russia has two highly militarized allies, namely NK and Iran.
As I mentioned in one of my articles three months ago, the allies made a mistake by eating the Russian bait. They engaged in an attrition war without fully understanding the Russian industrial capacity and where the global military supply chain is located.
For example, China manufactures over 80% of the world's Tungsten, while Russia is a major producer of chemicals used in explosives and, along with China, one of the few countries with significant production of the new CL-20 explosive.
The prognosis for Ukraine is not favorable, and this situation should prompt Europe to reflect on its defense sector. Europe must move away from buying expensive boutique weapons, and instead focus on building extensive war capabilities, as evidenced by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
*This war will indeed have profound effects on global arms industries and supply chains.
*The allies have the ability to continue slowing down the supply to Ukraine for several months, until the manpower becomes unsustainable."