sycasey said:
BearGoggles said:
In terms of the nationwide ban, I suspect we will start finding a lot of liberal federalists. I think any congressional law banning or affirming a nationwide abortion right is quite possibly unconstitutional. Any such law is also unlikely to ever defeat a filibuster (assuming the dems do not foolishly eliminate it).
1. If Republicans have the votes (say they win a trifecta in 2024), they will eliminate the filibuster to get their nationwide ban through. Guaranteed.
2. This radical right-wing Court will then get to decide what's constitutional. Want to take bets on how they'll rule?
1. McConnell has opposed the elimination of the filibuster repeatedly for legislation - in opposition to Trump and others. He opposed Reid doing it for judges but when Reid made that change, McConnell did expand it to SC judges. Anything is possible - and McConnell won't be around for ever - so who knows. But there are widespread democrat demands to eliminate it now - that was not the case for Trump.
2. We have some indication as to how they would rule, based on conservative views of federalism and enumerated rights. If you look at NFIB vs. Sebelius, there is extensive discussion of the limits of the commerce clause and the necessary and proper clause. That is the conservative position.
The liberals, on the other hand, would take a very expansive view of congressional powers. It is the liberal judicial theories that would support a nationwide ban, though no doubt Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan are so results oriented they would never issue a ruling contrary to their political preference (i.e., they would support a nationwide law affirming abortion rights, but would oppose a nationwide ban).
I can point to many instances where Scalia, Roberts, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and other conservative justices voted based on their view of the law, even when it was against their political preferences. Flag burning, NFIB, and many cases involving the first amendment and/or rights of accused criminals. Can you point me to any cases where Sotomayor's judicial philosophy led her to support a ruling that is contrary to her liberal political preferences? Kagan is more strategic - but mostly applies to her as well.