The Midterm Elections

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concordtom
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 8:58p, 11/8/22
Unit2Sucks said:
dajo9 said:
NVBear78 said:
sycasey said:
Anyway, the current polling average seems to indicate a national environment that is close to even (the "generic ballot" national polls tend to sit somewhere between +2 R and +2 D). Thanks to gerrymandering, a tied national vote means Republicans win the House, so I expect that will happen. The Senate, because of the specific seats up this cycle and the poor candidates selected by GOP voters, is closer to a toss-up in this environment. I legitimately have no idea which way it goes.


The House already flipped as of 5:30 PM (PST). Waiting now to see the final margin.


So far:
House R+5
Governors D +2

Too early
Fetterman, Ryan, Beasley, Hassan and Warnock are all wining their senate races. Time to stop counting votes and the Dems expand their advantage in the senate. It's mathematically impossible for late counted republican votes to change the outcome so the only reason this would change would be GOP voter fraud.

Am I doing it right?


Yes.

And then what about Nevada, where Democrat Clark County has shut down because of printers?
How about we just keep the Democratic incumbent.
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concordtom
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In reply to movielover • 9:03p, 11/8/22
movielover said:
concordtom said:
movielover said:
You either lack candor, or are delusional. I've had many liberals say they like most of Trump's policies, but not the drama / mean tweets. He's given hundreds of speeches nationwide, and the policies are thete for all to see, even if Democrats and Jared block them / water then down.

Peace Through Strength
No new wars
Fair trade with China (Jared blocked)
Fair trade w Europe
New excellent trade deal with Mexico and Canada, closing the China backdoor tariff-free imports into the USA
No to new NAFTA / Wall Street bills which gut middle America
Strong MAGA economy w LOW INFLATION
EU pays into NATO per their commitment
Energy independence, no to Paris Accord
Bring manufacturing home
Close Southern border to illegal immigration, Fentanyl, and human/ drug traffickers
Basic law and order
Major Infrastructure Bill (Democrats blocked)
Medical Freedom - right to Try
Improved health care (McCain blocked, same guy who was peddling the pee tape fraud to Congress, the State Dept, etc)
Opportunity Zones and HBCU funded for 10 years

There's just a brief MAGA list


You lack likeability.


You digress. This isn't likeability but policies. Several have claimed President Trump lacked policies, which I've refuted here.


No digression.

You said the other guy lacked candor or is delusional.
So I said you lack likeability.

I was just following your lead on assessing the character of a poster.
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concordtom
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In reply to movielover • 9:03p, 11/8/22
movielover said:
Ironically, Miami Dade County booted out some crooks, as did the state, made a few changes, and now elections seem to run smooth... and to the Right.


So long as your side is winning, it is smooth, right?
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concordtom
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:04p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
Who is sexualizing our children?


Yeah, and this is actually a bigger problem in my opinion.
Great point!
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Big C
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In reply to concordtom • 9:05p, 11/8/22
concordtom said:
tequila4kapp said:
Walker running about 4.5 points worse than Kemp in early GA results.

I'm only just now checking in, and Walker is winning. Yikes!! 88% in.

Am I missing something?
Runoff salvation?

Folks in Georgia pretty fired up about the Dawgs these days?

Walker gets high % of white Republican vote and a certain % of the Dem Black vote?

The decline of American Civilization?

not conceding yet... EDIT: Starting to look like Warnock's going to pull it out.
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concordtom
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:08p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
However this shakes out, it is not a red wave. Kind of unbelievable with a low polling President and high inflation that Republicans couldn't do better.


As far as I'm concerned, it's only a win if Trumpism dies. And it's not at all dead.
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concordtom
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 9:12p, 11/8/22
Unit2Sucks said:




Trump openly admits to being The Compromat Candidate.

What crime is that?
Extortion?
Bribery?
Coercion?
What's the word I'm looking? I know it's illegal!!!
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concordtom
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In reply to MinotStateBeav • 9:15p, 11/8/22
MinotStateBeav said:
Nancy Pelosi has officially been fired.


You mean, election style, or MAGA style?

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concordtom
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:22p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
America hates Trumpism


Sounds inaccurate from my view at this point.
Care to explain?
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dajo9
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In reply to concordtom • 9:39p, 11/8/22
concordtom said:
dajo9 said:
America hates Trumpism


Sounds inaccurate from my view at this point.
Care to explain?


I don't know who will win the House or Senate. That makes tonight an epic fail for Republicans. This is the best result for a midterm of a 1st term Democratic President since 1934.
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sycasey
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:51p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.


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bearister
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9:53p, 11/8/22
Oz



Kari Lake and Lauren Boebert on the road to….

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
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concordtom
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In reply to sycasey • 10:00p, 11/8/22
sycasey said:
dajo9 said:
In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.




I wonder what those age splits looked like 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago.
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concordtom
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In reply to bearister • 10:02p, 11/8/22
Lauren Boebert going down??
Ahahaha. I love it.
Get MTG out of there, too!!!
Both complete idiots!!!

Colorado District 3
78% reporting

Adam Frisch
Democratic Party
51.4%
135,669 votes

Lauren Boebert
Republican Party
48.6%
128,081 votes
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sycasey
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In reply to concordtom • 10:21p, 11/8/22
concordtom said:
sycasey said:
dajo9 said:
In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.




I wonder what those age splits looked like 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago.

During the Reagan era it was close to 50/50, Dems just barely ahead. Since Obama it's been blowout margins like that. Yes, people do get more conservative as they age and that tightens margins a bit, but those big margins are hard to erase.

I've been wondering when their terrible performance with Millennials and GenZ was really going to catch up to Republicans, and I think it's starting now.
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Big C
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In reply to sycasey • 10:33p, 11/8/22
sycasey said:
concordtom said:
sycasey said:
dajo9 said:
In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.




I wonder what those age splits looked like 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago.

During the Reagan era it was close to 50/50, Dems just barely ahead. Since Obama it's been blowout margins like that. Yes, people do get more conservative as they age and that tightens margins a bit, but those big margins are hard to erase.

I've been wondering when their terrible performance with Millennials and GenZ was really going to catch up to Republicans, and I think it's starting now.

... which might be why they seem to be becoming increasingly more desperate, appealing to their base through fear of "the other".
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concordtom
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In reply to Big C • 10:36p, 11/8/22
Huh???
No te comprendo.

Oh wait. I get you.
You're saying the Republicans are getting more desperate.
I thought you were saying young people were getting desperate, etc.
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Big C
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In reply to concordtom • 10:51p, 11/8/22

Indeed. The Republicans are largely reduced to saying that the Dems want to switch everyone's gender and also that the elections are stolen. Heck, they are even becoming pro-Russia lately, just because the Dems aren't.
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Unit2Sucks
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11:04p, 11/8/22

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dajo9
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11:06p, 11/8/22
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Unit2Sucks
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11:21p, 11/8/22
Have you guys heard from movielover? I'm really wondering what the people's pundit is saying. As I recall, movielover says that PP was one of the most accurate pollsters and that he was predicting a red tsunami and that any poll which showed otherwise was rife with bias.




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Big C
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 11:32p, 11/8/22
Unit2Sucks said:
Have you guys heard from movielover? I'm really wondering what the people's pundit is saying. As I recall, movielover says that PP was one of the most accurate pollsters and that he was predicting a red tsunami and that any poll which showed otherwise was rife with bias.





Back in the days of BearForce2, you didn't have to worry about those people disappearing on election night, when faced with a little adversity!
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sycasey
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In reply to dajo9 • 11:33p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
movielover said:
Rich Baris "The People's Pundit"@Peoples_Pundit
.
@HungCaoCongress
has taken the lead in #VA10. Holy cow.

"Exit Polls look very bad for Democrats."

"Judging by the predictions [betting] markets, looks like someone leaked the first wave."



Bwaahahaha, this is like when Cal88 posted that "Election Wizard" account showing Biden losing a bellwether county in Pennsylvania, and just a few minutes later it had flipped to Biden winning.

And then we didn't hear from Cal88 for months.
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dimitrig
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In reply to dajo9 • 11:35p, 11/8/22
dajo9 said:
Who is the big loser tonight?

Trump is the big loser tonight.

Trump is the big loser every night. Just ask Melania.

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okaydo
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11:36p, 11/8/22
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11:40p, 11/8/22
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dimitrig
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In reply to okaydo • 11:43p, 11/8/22
okaydo said:

I want more fentanyl, drag queens, and poop on sidewalks.

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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to okaydo • 11:50p, 11/8/22
okaydo said:
Hmmm… I'm under the impression that we have two six month old kittens running around the house, but maybe they are really first graders in drag.
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OneKeg
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12:04a, 11/9/22
I'm relieved that the so-called red wave was a flop. But I don't get the gloating.

GOP will take the house, though not by a massive margin thankfully. And in the Senate... Laxalt may well beat Cortez Masto in Nevada and Walker may beat Warnock in the Georgia runoff. Wouldn't that be 51-49 R? Assuming Kelly (D) wins in AZ and Johnson (R) in WI.

It's critical for the Democratic Party to keep control of the Senate, even if some of that control includes pseudo-Dems like Manchin and Sinema. Keeps a cap on some of the worst excesses the Republicans were salivating over coming into this. Not feeling good about it until that 50th Senate seat is blue.
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okaydo
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12:04a, 11/9/22
Wow, Clay Travis was wrong.


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dimitrig
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In reply to OneKeg • 12:11a, 11/9/22
OneKeg said:
I'm relieved that the so-called red wave was a flop. But I don't get the gloating.

GOP will take the house, though not by a massive margin thankfully. And in the Senate... Laxalt may well beat Cortez Masto in Nevada and Walker may beat Warnock in the Georgia runoff. Wouldn't that be 51-49 R? Assuming Kelly (D) wins in AZ and Johnson (R) in WI.

It's critical for the Democratic Party to keep control of the Senate, even if some of that control includes pseudo-Dems like Manchin and Sinema. Keeps a cap on some of the worst excesses the Republicans were salivating over coming into this. Not feeling good about it until that 50th Senate seat is blue.

It is disappointing to me that the Republicans will win the House given how deeply unpopular the GOP is.

Yes, the Republicans underperformed relative to expectations but they still did better than the Dems.

Those last few Senate races will be very huge.

What the hell is going on over there in Georgia?

They surprise us with two Dem senators and then they go and vote for Herschel Walker and re-elect MTG.





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dajo9
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In reply to dimitrig • 12:18a, 11/9/22
dimitrig said:
OneKeg said:
I'm relieved that the so-called red wave was a flop. But I don't get the gloating.

GOP will take the house, though not by a massive margin thankfully. And in the Senate... Laxalt may well beat Cortez Masto in Nevada and Walker may beat Warnock in the Georgia runoff. Wouldn't that be 51-49 R? Assuming Kelly (D) wins in AZ and Johnson (R) in WI.

It's critical for the Democratic Party to keep control of the Senate, even if some of that control includes pseudo-Dems like Manchin and Sinema. Keeps a cap on some of the worst excesses the Republicans were salivating over coming into this. Not feeling good about it until that 50th Senate seat is blue.

It is disappointing to me that the Republicans will win the House given how deeply unpopular the GOP is.

Yes, the Republicans underperformed relative to expectations but they still did better than the Dems.

Those last few Senate races will be very huge.

What the hell is going on over there in Georgia?

They surprise us with two Dem senators and then they go and vote for Herschel Walker and re-elect MTG.







I think it's a stretch to say Republicans did better than Dems. I think when all the House votes are counted we'll see that Dems got more votes nationally than Republicans. It's not that Republicans did better than Dems - its that our gerrymandered, broken democracy works better for Republicans.
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12:36a, 11/9/22
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12:52a, 11/9/22







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okaydo
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12:58a, 11/9/22
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