The Midterm Elections

48,006 Views | 731 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by dajo9
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey said:

tequila4kapp said:

Apologies for my geeking out on this....

Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)

This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.

So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.

The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.
The thing is that the outstanding ballots are mail ballots, which could indeed skew heavily enough blue (in all areas) to make up the deficit. It happened in 2020, and I don't think Republicans have started trusting mail ballots any more since then.
You are doing it wrong. Laxalt was behind when I went to sleep so anything that has happened since then is GOP election fraud pure and simple. Stop the count! Unless my team is losing, then keep counting. And if my team was winning and is now losing, go back to when it was the opposite and stop the count!

In all seriousness, things are going in the right direction for Laxalt and it's obviously an uphill battle for CM. CNN just gave an update and said most of the outstanding vote is Vegas which is why they won't call it. They also said that Reno has a 20k batch of mail-in and dropoff ballots that weren't counted yesterday at all and are being counted today.

They also say they basically have no idea how much of the vote is in because they don't know how many mail-in ballots arrived. They changed the law this year to mail everyone mail-in ballots and they just have to be postmarked yesterday so they literally don't know how many came in and won't until they arrive over the next few days. So saying they are "80%" in is really just a huge guess. No one in NV knows how many votes are left.
concordtom
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cbbass1 said:

concordtom said:

dajo9 said:

Who is sexualizing our children?



Yeah, and this is actually a bigger problem in my opinion.
Great point!
Aw, C'mon! This is healthy (i.e., hetero-) Christian sexuality! All good, right??


What's wrong with boys learning to ogle women with big hooters, scantily dressed, dancing for our pleasure, cheering our accomplishments?

And what's wrong with girls learning to be ogled at, dress scantily, dance for our pleasure, and cheer for our accomplishments??
concordtom
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82gradDLSdad said:

dajo9 said:

Who is sexualizing our children?



I don't know about children but this picture is stirring up something I can't quite put my finger on.


Oh, I'm pretty sure you've already put all FIVE fingers on it!!!!
concordtom
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movielover said:

cbbass1 said:

concordtom said:

dajo9 said:

Who is sexualizing our children?



Yeah, and this is actually a bigger problem in my opinion.
Great point!
Aw, C'mon! This is healthy (i.e., hetero-) Christian sexuality! All good, right??


There aren't many seven year olds at NFL stadiums.


Pfft.
As if they don't get on TV.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

Apparently, being from New Jersey was worse than suffering a stroke when it comes to PA.

Fetterman overwhelmingly wins the under age 45 vote.



I doubt it was the NJ aspect.
I think it's
1. He Muslim.
2. He's Trump-backed.

But that's just my impulse and not data driven.
concordtom
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dajo9 said:

bearister said:


Strong Hitler in the bunker vibes *

* Not meant as a comparison of Trump and Hitler in total, but rather just a comparison of the delusional unacceptance of failure from both fascists

Someone should do one of those sketches where the dialog changes.
Goigle: "Hitler Downfall Parody"
okaydo
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dajo9 said:

I don't know how the midterm elections are going to turn out. I get the impression the corporate media is pushing the narrative of a red wave. I don't know for sure because I don't look at much corporate media these days. It is clear to me that corporate media prefers Republican governance as most big business does.

There are also data points for Democratic Party overperformance. What does Democratic Party overperformance look like? Well, the 1st midterm of a new President is historically disastrous. This generally happens to both parties. The last two times the President's party gained seats in their first midterm election were 2002 (post 9/11) and 1934 (FDR coalition). Since World War II, the President's party has lost an average of 28 seats. Anything near a split Congress would be overperformance for the Democrats, historically speaking.

In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.

I've avoided this thread until today/late last night.

Anyways, Generations is written by the coiners of the word "millennial." I should check it out.

Also:





concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:

On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.




Factors of influence:

*Trump -for/against
*Foreign Affairs
*Climate change
*Abortion/Dobbs
*Inflation and "perceived" bad economy.

For me, that's the order.
SBGold
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

okaydo said:


Hmmm… I've under the impression that we have two six month old kittens running around the house, but maybe they are really first graders in drag.
HAhAHAHAHA
concordtom
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dimitrig said:

oski003 said:

This is great. People should vote for the right to choose.


No. People should be allowed to choose for themselves.




I think both of you guys are saying that you don't want a few politically appointed justices deciding for all 50 states, for all 300+M.

Actually Oski003 is agreeing with you if one were to get him to expand on his rationale there. Little did he know.
okaydo
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Unit2Sucks
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Maybe the dems aren't so dumb after all.



So where are the articles about the GOP in disarray or infighting? The "liberal" media runs those stories constantly about the democratic party.

okaydo
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concordtom
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okaydo said:




1.
Wow.
Lines are for losers.
Mail-in!

2.
No casual conversations amongst strangers. Everyone has head down on cellphone. Kinda sad to see.
concordtom
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sycasey said:

tequila4kapp said:

Apologies for my geeking out on this....

Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)

This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.

So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.

The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.
The thing is that the outstanding ballots are mail ballots, which could indeed skew heavily enough blue (in all areas) to make up the deficit. It happened in 2020, and I don't think Republicans have started trusting mail ballots any more since then.

I think I saw that in 2020 Arizona, Biden's lead DECREASED as time went on after Election Day. That's opposite of the late boost Dems expect from mail in, typically.
sycasey
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Unit2Sucks said:

So where are the articles about the GOP in disarray or infighting? The "liberal" media runs those stories constantly about the democratic party.
If Kevin McCarthy has to start managing a single-digit GOP House majority then we might see a bunch of them.
sycasey
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concordtom said:

sycasey said:

tequila4kapp said:

Apologies for my geeking out on this....

Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)

This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.

So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.

The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.
The thing is that the outstanding ballots are mail ballots, which could indeed skew heavily enough blue (in all areas) to make up the deficit. It happened in 2020, and I don't think Republicans have started trusting mail ballots any more since then.

I think I saw that in 2020 Arizona, Biden's lead DECREASED as time went on after Election Day. That's opposite of the late boost Dems expect from mail in, typically.
Yeah, Arizona is different in that they count their early votes sooner. On the other hand, as it gets VERY late in the count then all the remaining votes tend to be from the big urban precincts, which again trend blue. So it's hard to predict just how much shift there will be.
dajo9
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okaydo said:

dajo9 said:

I don't know how the midterm elections are going to turn out. I get the impression the corporate media is pushing the narrative of a red wave. I don't know for sure because I don't look at much corporate media these days. It is clear to me that corporate media prefers Republican governance as most big business does.

There are also data points for Democratic Party overperformance. What does Democratic Party overperformance look like? Well, the 1st midterm of a new President is historically disastrous. This generally happens to both parties. The last two times the President's party gained seats in their first midterm election were 2002 (post 9/11) and 1934 (FDR coalition). Since World War II, the President's party has lost an average of 28 seats. Anything near a split Congress would be overperformance for the Democrats, historically speaking.

In 1991, I read a book called "Generations: A History to America's Future". It theorized a cycle to American history based on generational patterns. In 1991 this book predicted an American crisis sometime around 2020. I always found this book to be very compelling. Usually, the crisis is won by the younger generation imposing its will on the future of the country. This got me interested in the 1934 election (since it was pivotal in America's last crisis era) so I dug up and read a 1979 book called "The Creation of a Democratic Majority 1928 - 1936". That book showed how the FDR majority was the result of new voters (both younger and 2nd generation American that had not previously voted) and NOT the result of pre-existing voters changing sides. In other words, the FDR majority was the result of the younger generation defying the odds and the expectations and imposing its will on the future of the country.

One big difference between 2022 and 1934 is that older generations live longer and so have a bigger impact on the vote to prevent the future young Americans want to build for themselves. I don't know if 2022 will be a 1934 election. I certainly hope so but there are plenty of datapoints suggesting otherwise. Will be interesting to see what the young people do - I am rooting for them to live in the America they want for their future.

I've avoided this thread until today/late last night.

Anyways, Generations is written by the coiners of the word "millennial." I should check it out.

Also:






The book is amazing in how well they predicted things that have happened over the last 40 years culminating in this time of threat to our democracy and the young turning out to save the country and their future. The book received some notoriety in 2016 because it is a favorite of Steve Bannon who thought Trump was the hero of our time saving the country. That argument never made sense to me because in the theory of the generational cycles, in the crisis that happens every ~80 years the heros are always the young. Trump was always a cause celebre of the old.

There was a lot of chatter on the internet about the Fourth Turning (the name of the sequel written in 1996, which is specifically about this crisis, though I have not read it). Most of the chatter was Trumpers declaring Trump as the hero of the time as prophesied in the Fourth Turning. All an incorrect reading of the original book, in my opinion, but it became the most popular viewpoint of the theory. Trumpers get everything wrong and ruin everything.
concordtom
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I've been on Foxnews to hear how they are spinning this. They showed a clip of DeSantis victory speech highlights and I see he looks angry yet she looks like a poster cut out: pretty and dutifully smiling and waving.

Cool to see she's not Woke.








Now, I don't know anything about her, and so could be wrong, but ….
sycasey
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Hopefully we don't have to hear about Trafalgar anymore.

okaydo
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dajo9
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okaydo said:




On the one hand, we need to get better at rejecting idiots from the social consciousness. On the other hand, these idiots give us so many laughs.
bearister
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"Former President Trump is facing waves of blame after key Republican candidates lost in midterms.

There was no red wave. As of this morning, control of the Senate is undetermined, but appears to be leaning toward Democrats. The House is headed for a very narrow GOP majority, but is also uncalled.

Why it matters: Regardless of the reality with GOP primary voters, Republican elites and other anti-Trump Republicans sense blood in the water. There's an increased likelihood of a larger, more boisterous primary field competing against Trump in 2024, Jonathan Swan reports.

The chances Trump can clear the field are vastly diminished.

What happened: Many of former President Trump's handpicked candidates were defeated or struggled in otherwise winnable races a lineup of underachievers, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports.

In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz lost his Senate race to Democrat John Fetterman by 2+ points. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon lost her challenge to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) by 8 points.
Trump-backed candidates who are trailing: Herschel Walker for Senate in Georgia ... Blake Masters for Senate in Arizona ... and Kari Lake for governor in Arizona.

On top of all that, he stoked a massive distraction by promoting speculation about his own 2024 campaign in the midterms' final hours.

The intrigue: Trump's planned rally at Mar-a-Lago next Tuesday, where he's expected to announce a 2024 presidential campaign, now won't come after a GOP landslide.

Instead, it will follow an election where Democrats have a solid chance to hold or even expand their hold on the Senate and where Republicans fell way short of their expectations for a sizable red wave.

Between the lines: Trump constrained his party's coalition in states where he showed up. In Pennsylvania, Senate victor John Fetterman won independents with 57% of the vote, Hispanics with 67% of the vote and women with 57% of the vote, according to exit polling.

In Georgia, where the Senate race is too close to call, Trump-championed Herschel Walker won only 8% of the Black vote, 42% of independents and 39% of Hispanics, exit polls show. His numbers in all three categories lagged Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who won re-election.

By contrast, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' resounding re-election was one of the few bright spots for Republicans.

DeSantis' 20-point victory carrying some big, largely Hispanic counties, including Miami-Dade and Osceola will provide rocket fuel for a possible presidential campaign.

What to watch: DeSantis wants to run badly, and will argue he has similar beliefs to Trump but can deliver much bigger, broader wins.

The bottom line: Trump's promotion of candidates outside the political mainstream or celebrities without political experience proved to be costly for Republicans. DeSantis' Florida model offers Republicans an alternative path. But Trump won't let the party move on without a fight."
-Axios
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dimitrig
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dajo9 said:

okaydo said:


On the one hand, we need to get better at rejecting idiots from the social consciousness. On the other hand, these idiots give us so many laughs.

I don't think she's lost yet. It is supposedly very, very close.

Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:

"Former President Trump is facing waves of blame after key Republican candidates lost in midterms.

There was no red wave. As of this morning, control of the Senate is undetermined, but appears to be leaning toward Democrats. The House is headed for a very narrow GOP majority, but is also uncalled.

Why it matters: Regardless of the reality with GOP primary voters, Republican elites and other anti-Trump Republicans sense blood in the water. There's an increased likelihood of a larger, more boisterous primary field competing against Trump in 2024, Jonathan Swan reports.

The chances Trump can clear the field are vastly diminished.

What happened: Many of former President Trump's handpicked candidates were defeated or struggled in otherwise winnable races a lineup of underachievers, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports.

In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz lost his Senate race to Democrat John Fetterman by 2+ points. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon lost her challenge to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) by 8 points.
Trump-backed candidates who are trailing: Herschel Walker for Senate in Georgia ... Blake Masters for Senate in Arizona ... and Kari Lake for governor in Arizona.

On top of all that, he stoked a massive distraction by promoting speculation about his own 2024 campaign in the midterms' final hours.

The intrigue: Trump's planned rally at Mar-a-Lago next Tuesday, where he's expected to announce a 2024 presidential campaign, now won't come after a GOP landslide.

Instead, it will follow an election where Democrats have a solid chance to hold or even expand their hold on the Senate and where Republicans fell way short of their expectations for a sizable red wave.

Between the lines: Trump constrained his party's coalition in states where he showed up. In Pennsylvania, Senate victor John Fetterman won independents with 57% of the vote, Hispanics with 67% of the vote and women with 57% of the vote, according to exit polling.

In Georgia, where the Senate race is too close to call, Trump-championed Herschel Walker won only 8% of the Black vote, 42% of independents and 39% of Hispanics, exit polls show. His numbers in all three categories lagged Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who won re-election.

By contrast, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' resounding re-election was one of the few bright spots for Republicans.

DeSantis' 20-point victory carrying some big, largely Hispanic counties, including Miami-Dade and Osceola will provide rocket fuel for a possible presidential campaign.

What to watch: DeSantis wants to run badly, and will argue he has similar beliefs to Trump but can deliver much bigger, broader wins.

The bottom line: Trump's promotion of candidates outside the political mainstream or celebrities without political experience proved to be costly for Republicans. DeSantis' Florida model offers Republicans an alternative path. But Trump won't let the party move on without a fight."
-Axios
Trump will go scorched earth and bury any and all challengers. He will be the nominee if he's alive and not in prison. Even in prison he has a shot.
movielover
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concordtom said:

DiabloWags said:

Apparently, being from New Jersey was worse than suffering a stroke when it comes to PA.

Fetterman overwhelmingly wins the under age 45 vote.



I doubt it was the NJ aspect.
I think it's
1. He Muslim.
2. He's Trump-backed.

But that's just my impulse and not data
driven.


Likely a voting vs ballot harvesting issue.
concordtom
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Unit2Sucks said:

Trump will go scorched earth and bury any and all challengers. He will be the nominee if he's alive and not in prison. Even in prison he has a shot.

He will get torched if he wins the R primary!
movielover
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bearister said:

"Former President Trump is facing waves of blame after key Republican candidates lost in midterms.

There was no red wave. As of this morning, control of the Senate is undetermined, but appears to be leaning toward Democrats. The House is headed for a very narrow GOP majority, but is also uncalled.

Why it matters: Regardless of the reality with GOP primary voters, Republican elites and other anti-Trump Republicans sense blood in the water. There's an increased likelihood of a larger, more boisterous primary field competing against Trump in 2024, Jonathan Swan reports.

The chances Trump can clear the field are vastly diminished.

What happened: Many of former President Trump's handpicked candidates were defeated or struggled in otherwise winnable races a lineup of underachievers, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports.

In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz lost his Senate race to Democrat John Fetterman by 2+ points. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon lost her challenge to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) by 8 points.
Trump-backed candidates who are trailing: Herschel Walker for Senate in Georgia ... Blake Masters for Senate in Arizona ... and Kari Lake for governor in Arizona.

On top of all that, he stoked a massive distraction by promoting speculation about his own 2024 campaign in the midterms' final hours.

The intrigue: Trump's planned rally at Mar-a-Lago next Tuesday, where he's expected to announce a 2024 presidential campaign, now won't come after a GOP landslide.

Instead, it will follow an election where Democrats have a solid chance to hold or even expand their hold on the Senate and where Republicans fell way short of their expectations for a sizable red wave.

Between the lines: Trump constrained his party's coalition in states where he showed up. In Pennsylvania, Senate victor John Fetterman won independents with 57% of the vote, Hispanics with 67% of the vote and women with 57% of the vote, according to exit polling.

In Georgia, where the Senate race is too close to call, Trump-championed Herschel Walker won only 8% of the Black vote, 42% of independents and 39% of Hispanics, exit polls show. His numbers in all three categories lagged Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who won re-election.

By contrast, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' resounding re-election was one of the few bright spots for Republicans.

DeSantis' 20-point victory carrying some big, largely Hispanic counties, including Miami-Dade and Osceola will provide rocket fuel for a possible presidential campaign.

What to watch: DeSantis wants to run badly, and will argue he has similar beliefs to Trump but can deliver much bigger, broader wins.

The bottom line: Trump's promotion of candidates outside the political mainstream or celebrities without political experience proved to be costly for Republicans. DeSantis' Florida model offers Republicans an alternative path. But Trump won't let the party move on without a fight."
-Axios


Kari Lake and Masters believe they will win, bigly.

The Ted Cruz / Jeb Bush / McConnell UniParty want
to take out President Trump and his MAGA priorities,, and will try to do it w DeSantis. China and Wall Street approve, as both want to ship more middle class jobs out of the country.
bearister
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Conservatives point finger at Trump after GOP's underwhelming election results: 'He's never been weaker' | Fox News


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/conservatives-point-finger-trump-gops-underwhelming-election-results-never-been-weaker



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Unit2Sucks
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concordtom said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Trump will go scorched earth and bury any and all challengers. He will be the nominee if he's alive and not in prison. Even in prison he has a shot.

He will get torched if he wins the R primary!
We've seen this story and nothing has changed. Ask movielover who he'll vote for - it's Trump now more than ever. Movielover is where the GOP is right now. Election denialism, deep in conspiracy theories and skeptical of the "establishment" but somehow not of Trump.

Look at Fox News coverage, they just really don't understand what's really going on in this country because they still think Trump is some sort of sage.



The dems will clean Trump and the GOP's clock again in 2024 unless the GOP is able to make real progress in their fascist agenda to take over elections. The upcoming SCOTUS decision in Moore v Harper ("independent state legislature") may have a huge impact on that. It's the GOP's only hope because their message doesn't resonate with enough people.


bearister
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Isn't Murdoch going DeSantis now? Fox News made him and Fox News can destroy him.

For the first time I am starting to believe tRump is headed for the dustbin of history….and that's not to say DeSantis is not a nightmare for our country….but at this point I don't think he is a foreign agent, seditionist, traitor, sexual predator, criminal and sub intelligent.
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okaydo
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Big C
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Trump must be pissed that lots of the candidates he endorsed flopped, but DeSantis won easily.

Because Trump has zero loyalty to the GOP (beyond what it can do for him), maybe he will try and sink DeSantis now.
bearister
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Big C said:


Trump must be pissed that lots of the candidates he endorsed flopped, but DeSantis won easily.

Because Trump has zero loyalty to the GOP (beyond what it can do for him), maybe he will try and sink DeSantis now.


tRump believes in the J. Edgar Hoover school of blackmail….but now that most Republicans want to saddle another horse, some may be willing to secretly "drop a dime" on tRump to get rid of him.
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dajo9
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Dear Baby Boomers,
Meet your new overlords
 
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