You are doing it wrong. Laxalt was behind when I went to sleep so anything that has happened since then is GOP election fraud pure and simple. Stop the count! Unless my team is losing, then keep counting. And if my team was winning and is now losing, go back to when it was the opposite and stop the count!sycasey said:The thing is that the outstanding ballots are mail ballots, which could indeed skew heavily enough blue (in all areas) to make up the deficit. It happened in 2020, and I don't think Republicans have started trusting mail ballots any more since then.tequila4kapp said:
Apologies for my geeking out on this....
Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)
This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.
So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.
The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.
In all seriousness, things are going in the right direction for Laxalt and it's obviously an uphill battle for CM. CNN just gave an update and said most of the outstanding vote is Vegas which is why they won't call it. They also said that Reno has a 20k batch of mail-in and dropoff ballots that weren't counted yesterday at all and are being counted today.
They also say they basically have no idea how much of the vote is in because they don't know how many mail-in ballots arrived. They changed the law this year to mail everyone mail-in ballots and they just have to be postmarked yesterday so they literally don't know how many came in and won't until they arrive over the next few days. So saying they are "80%" in is really just a huge guess. No one in NV knows how many votes are left.