concordtom said:

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dajo9 said:

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Who is sexualizing our children?

Strutting into a new week with another #DallasCowboys win! ✨💗#VictoryMonday | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/80A1ZOpE7R

— Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders (@DCCheerleaders) October 31, 2022

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Yeah, and this is actually a bigger problem in my opinion.
Great point!

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Aw, C'mon! This is healthy (i.e., hetero-) Christian sexuality! All good, right??

okaydo said:

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Votes are still be counted but I think it's clear that the American people want more crime, less police funding, wave of undocumented immigrants to replace the white population, unchecked inflation, and more wokeism. And more pronouns, many more pronouns.

— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) November 9, 2022

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Imagine how awful Republicans would have to be, that Dems would trade all those things for the right to control their own bodies.

🚶 https://t.co/rhGpqc2m2T

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) November 9, 2022

If you are looking for new heros of the election prediction game, look no farther than Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier and their Targetsmart model. They predicted that the end of Roe had changed everything and have been saying for days that their early vote analysis showed Democratic strength.

Biggest purveyor of Hopium this cycle was @RealClearNews. https://t.co/Q55Z7hWyHW

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 9, 2022

dajo9 said:

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Who is sexualizing our children?

Strutting into a new week with another #DallasCowboys win! ✨💗#VictoryMonday | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/80A1ZOpE7R

— Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders (@DCCheerleaders) October 31, 2022

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I don't know about children but this picture is stirring up something I can't quite put my finger on.

tequila4kapp said:

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dajo9 said:

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Who is sexualizing our children?

Strutting into a new week with another #DallasCowboys win! ✨💗#VictoryMonday | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/80A1ZOpE7R

— Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders (@DCCheerleaders) October 31, 2022

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Also inappropriate (to me at least) if they were brought into elementary schools to read books, etc. It would not be discrimination to keep them out, it would be using judgment to realize what's appropriate and best for children.

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Bingo.

Apparently, being from New Jersey was worse than suffering a stroke when it comes to PA.

Fetterman overwhelmingly wins the under age 45 vote.

Congrats to Ds on a very good night.

That said, let's also realize Rs are still likely going to control the House and, if Laxalt and Johnson win their races, as it currently appears they will, the Senate comes down to Georgia again. And note there was a Libertarian candidate who got 2.1% of the vote who won't be there inDecember.

In my neck of the woods it appears there's a potential explanation of bad candidates.
- Rs lost a House seat they'd held for 10 years just across the river in Washington State. The incumbent voted to impeach Trump. She was primaried and lost to a Trumper. No way Rs should have lost the race.
- A new congressional district that was VERY winnable this cycle appears to be going D. R's candidate was someone who has lost statewide races before and reportedly paid for his g/friends abortion while supposedly being pro-life.

Outside of my area the single worst candidate in the entire election has to be Mastriano in PA. He apparently didn't even campaign and ended up losing by 20+, likely really hurting Oz along the way. Mastriano was a Trumper.

Another story on the House side may be that most of the competitive house races were +D districts. I think that fact was seriously undervalued.

We need some time to pass but it will be interesting to eventually see what happened with the pollsters who were so wrong.

On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

tequila4kapp said:

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On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

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Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

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Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.

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They also reported a referendum to effectively ban abortion went down in KY or TN???

In the Dobbs thread I predicted things would normalize, that democracy works to bring things to the middle. This may be our first bigger evidence of this.

This is great. People should vote for the right to choose.

tequila4kapp said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

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Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.

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They also reported a referendum to effectively ban abortion went down in KY or TN???

In the Dobbs thread I predicted things would normalize, that democracy works to bring things to the middle. This may be our first bigger evidence of this.

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Yes, KY voters rejected a ballot measure aimed at denying any constitutional protections for abortion.
The ban would have had no exceptions for rape or incest either.

Amendment 2 lost 52.5% to 47.5%

Michigan
Vermont
California too.

Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

That would put Rs up 49/48 with Az, Nv and Ga remaining. Ga is heading to the runoff. Ds are up in Zona but vote counting is a mess so TBD. Rs are up in Nv but there are apparently a lot of mail in ballots still not counted so TBD.

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

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Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.

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This election there was a clear divide between Republican friendly pollsters and independent pollsters, who I think will be found to be fairly accurate. However, the swarm of Republican friendly pollsters greatly influenced the media and RCP is Republican friendly also - so the averages moved and the narrative set in.

To what extent the Republican friendly polls were straight propaganda vs. honest hidden Trump voter secret sauce is the question. They have looked like geniuses when Trump was on the ballot and the hidden Trump voters appeared. But in the midterms, without Trump on the ballot, they have not materialized and they have looked terrible.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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On Fox this morning they noted some states that had abortion referendums. For example, Rs spent big in Michigan and lost winnable races (all of them??). Dobbs may have been on the ballot more than was discussed. In which case I say, Great, democracy wins.

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Abortion rights trumped the inflation issue.
The pollsters that people like Movie Lover were constantly quoting all week long got this wrong.
Totally wrong.

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This election there was a clear divide between Republican friendly pollsters and independent pollsters, who I think will be found to be fairly accurate. However, the swarm of Republican friendly pollsters greatly influenced the media and RCP is Republican friendly also - so the averages moved and the narrative set in.

To what extent the Republican friendly polls were straight propaganda vs. honest hidden Trump voter secret sauce is the question. They have looked like geniuses when Trump was on the ballot and the hidden Trump voters appeared. But in the midterms, without Trump on the ballot, they have not materialized and they have looked terrible.

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I think the story, as is often the case, will be turnout.

Two issues turned people out:

1. Abortion

2. Donald Trump (and not in a way favorable to him)

It's not that the polls were biased as much as they just underestimated how eager people were to get to the polls to repudiate some of the malarkey that the GOP has been engaged in.

I also think that people in both parties are getting tired of Trump, his supporters, and their narrative. The best thing that could happen to the Democratic Party would be for Trump to be the nominee again in 2024.

tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

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It really depends on where those 30,000 votes left are located.
I hear they're from Milwaukee?

Unit2Sucks said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

That would put Rs up 49/48 with Az, Nv and Ga remaining. Ga is heading to the runoff. Ds are up in Zona but vote counting is a mess so TBD. Rs are up in Nv but there are apparently a lot of mail in ballots still not counted so TBD.

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When I went to bed, Cortez Mastro was winning in Nevada. Then over night the GOP "found" a lot of votes. I'm not saying that they're cheating, but why didn't we just go with the results we had at midnight? They should have called it right away and CM should have declared victory.

Of course I don't believe any of this, but sadly that's where a plurality of the GOP is at this point. I agree that AZ is a bit of a mess right now and I don't think you are doing this, but let's be honest, lots of GOPers will claim election fraud this cycle. Kari Lake is already doing so in AZ and I don't think she will be alone. Denialism is hear to stay from the GOP.

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I understand your greater point but Az deserves some noise. The D candidate for Gov is the sitting Sec of State. Conflict of interest goes directly to election integrity. Rs sued to keep Maricopa open for a few extra hours after the issues earlier in the day. Presumably Ds argued against. So much for Ds wanting every single vote to count. And how does Maricopa county have all these issues? Can't these states get it right?

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

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It really depends on where those 30,000 votes left are located.
I hear they're from Milwaukee?

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I "think" the math of it may be that there are fewer votes left to be counted than the current vote difference. It may be mathematically impossible, regardless of where the votes come from.

tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

That would put Rs up 49/48 with Az, Nv and Ga remaining. Ga is heading to the runoff. Ds are up in Zona but vote counting is a mess so TBD. Rs are up in Nv but there are apparently a lot of mail in ballots still not counted so TBD.

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I would narrowly favor Dems in all three of these.

And they only need two to maintain Senate control.

tequila4kapp said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

That would put Rs up 49/48 with Az, Nv and Ga remaining. Ga is heading to the runoff. Ds are up in Zona but vote counting is a mess so TBD. Rs are up in Nv but there are apparently a lot of mail in ballots still not counted so TBD.

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When I went to bed, Cortez Mastro was winning in Nevada. Then over night the GOP "found" a lot of votes. I'm not saying that they're cheating, but why didn't we just go with the results we had at midnight? They should have called it right away and CM should have declared victory.

Of course I don't believe any of this, but sadly that's where a plurality of the GOP is at this point. I agree that AZ is a bit of a mess right now and I don't think you are doing this, but let's be honest, lots of GOPers will claim election fraud this cycle. Kari Lake is already doing so in AZ and I don't think she will be alone. Denialism is hear to stay from the GOP.

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I understand your greater point but Az deserves some noise. The D candidate for Gov is the sitting Sec of State. Conflict of interest goes directly to election integrity. Rs sued to keep Maricopa open for a few extra hours after the issues earlier in the day. Presumably Ds argued against. So much for Ds wanting every single vote to count. And how does Maricopa county have all these issues? Can't these states get it right?

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Yes, it's similar to Stacy Abram's complaint in Georgia when Kemp was SOS.

The judge didn't find this to be a big issue and didn't think there was a need to keep the polls open. I don't believe that the Ds were involved in the suit, just the GOP against the county lawyers. I'm sure we'll find out more over the coming days.

The real problem, as is quite common in our country, is federalism. Live by the sword, die by the sword. We can't federalize elections and will always have these sorts of local issues. One solution I was thinking about last night is treating it like we do with federal highway dollars and the double nickel speed limit. If congress passes some election integrity act with state level funding but requires the states to join some nationwide new blessed electronic voting system, maybe that is one way to get almost all the states on board. It still won't be universal and elections will still be run at the municipality level, but it would be an improvement.

I haven't seen any indications from any democrats anywhere to stop counting votes or to prevent any votes from being counted so I also think your spin is unwarranted. Contrast that with the GOP who very vocally does not want votes counted, unless their candidate is behind.

One more thing, I do agree that a poorly run election is not a great look for Hobbs. Unfortunately for Arizona and our country, Kari Lake has made it clear she doesn't want a fairly run election in the future and that as a denialist she would be perfectly comfortable with shenanigans that help the GOP. I would expect if Lake wins that we see fake electors certifying for Trump in 2024 and lots of funny business.

Fox calls Johnson for SI
CNN has the Senate at 49/48 Rs so I believe they did so also.

That leaves Az, NV and GA (which is going to a runoff)

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Johnson has an @30k lead in WI. 99% of the vote is in with @2.6M votes cast. If it's true there are @26k votes left uncounted this race is over.

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It really depends on where those 30,000 votes left are located.
I hear they're from Milwaukee?

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According to a highly placed GOP source, I'm told that the 30,000 votes were from dead voters trucked in from Chicago. Richard Daley voted at least 10 times.

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I also heard that the ballots were made of rice paper from China.
They were unloaded at the port in Portland, Maine.

Unit2Sucks said:

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One more thing, I do agree that a poorly run election is not a great look for Hobbs. Unfortunately for Arizona and our country, Kari Lake has made it clear she doesn't want a fairly run election in the future and that as a denialist she would be perfectly comfortable with shenanigans that help the GOP. I would expect if Lake wins that we see fake electors certifying for Trump in 2024 and lots of funny business.

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To your point, it cant go unnoticed how our SCOTUS has given the GOP a big edge in the House due to their 5-4 decision back in February that ensured that the gerrymandered map would remain in effect for midterms.

Cant wait to see what our SCOTUS decides when it comes to reviewing Moore v Harper
Scheduled for Dec. 7th.

The doctrine at the heart of the case is known as the "independent state legislature" theory the idea that, under the Constitution, only the legislature has the power to regulate federal elections, without interference from state courts. Proponents of the theory point to the Constitution's elections clause, which gives state legislatures the power to set the "Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives."

Justices will hear case that tests power of state legislatures to set rules for federal elections - SCOTUSblog

Apologies for my geeking out on this....

Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)

This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.

So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.

The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.

tequila4kapp said:

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Apologies for my geeking out on this....

Per CNN
- 80% of the Nevada vote is in. Laxalt is up 418,561 to 395,327 (49.9>47.2)
- 84% of the Clark County vote is in. Masto is up 302,953 to 274,663 (51.0>46.2)

This should mean this are about 203,500 votes still to count. About 110K would be from Clark County but 93,500 would be from elsewhere. Mastro's pool of excess Clark County votes is about 6k less than her current overall deficit.

So...Mastro needs to win the Clark County outstanding vote at a substantially higher rate than she has so far (4.8%) and a solidly higher rate than what Laxalt is winning the non-Clark County vote. It stretches my math skills to the limit to figure out what that margin is but it has to be very high.

The professionals are not yet calling Nv - and they are professionals for a reason - but by my back of the napkin math says things look pretty darn good for Laxalt.

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The thing is that the outstanding ballots are mail ballots, which could indeed skew heavily enough blue (in all areas) to make up the deficit. It happened in 2020, and I don't think Republicans have started trusting mail ballots any more since then.