The Non-Yogi Israel-Palestine war thread

209,360 Views | 2617 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by tequila4kapp
dajo9
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socaltownie said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Now neo-cons and neo-libs are trying to tie funding Ukraine and money for Israel together!! MORE BILLIONS!! How about no more money that we don't have to other countries until we have a budget that gets us to a point we aren't slashing social security 20% in 7 years!!!
You do realize that the degredation of Russia's military capacity (and the continued deterrance of China in the Tawian Straights) is really a cheap investment.

Social security largely solved if we would raise the exemption cap to $250,000. But of course BI'ers that are well paid salaried Lawyers, bankers and doctors would scream.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-propose-tax-cap-social-144535645.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALu_KbcrireARVZeh6Q8ZmFvNvDdiEcaUJZyGOGVzmzRBUqQFi91_x8cLvKAFNViXDNoTGok2S45P4fUutmTVhDj8tQIbVMGQM_hJ3J8kPxdCeJbhwFVPoJKOGuL48qX_JZhYA332a9uUo5gBCQNPYKbkz5o8TgfFnG_wCkMk9vt#:~:text=Raising%20the%20Cap,capacity%20beyond%20the%20next%20decade.





That group you are talking about raising taxes on is the most taxed group of Americans as a percent of income. I'm talking about high income earners as opposed to high wealth-holders.

How about a doughnut hole where payroll taxes begin again above $500k?

Or how about taxing capital gains like income, including payroll taxes (except maybe it doesn't begin until $250k). There are lots of solutions that don't tax the most taxed.
concordtom
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MinotStateBeav said:

I don't care about Israel or Palestine at all really. What Hamas did is just like an Isis attack and for that Israel has enough already to take care of business, we don't need to get involved, except to sell weapons. Hamas is their elected gov't so they can deal with the consequences of those actions.


I'm pretty much with you.
But I don't think the world should stand by when innocents get slaughtered.
The Holocaust was worth stopping.
We failed to do that in Rwanda, or with Rhohinga.

I dunno, though. When global warming floods Bangladesh, where are those tens of millions of climate refugees gonna go? Nobody wants them but they're gonna have to go somewhere. These types of wars over culture clashes seem inevitable.
concordtom
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socaltownie said:

BearHunter said:




It's difficult to find a full explanation of how this conflict started and I'm sure the ones I posted above can't possibly explain it all in 5 minutes.
The above is simply propoganda (and especially Praeger who is essentially a millinialist who needs a Jewish state to exist to comport with prophecy).


It's difficult to find a full explanation of how this conflict started....

IMHO, In some senses it is beside the point and one of the problems is trying to get to "the root of the problem." I mean do we try to go back to the 1600s to try to decide who has the rightful claim to Ulster or, instead, say that the Protestant and Catholic community both live in Northern Ireland and any solution to the troubles required that this reality be accepted?

IN my simple mind that is at the core. Until large majorities in Isreal and in the Palistean community come to this conclusion it feels like tthere will never be a lasting "peace." And IMHO the continued violence also reflects the near impossibilty of trying to be a democratic and liberal state but which places central the idea of a "religious" identity. A big chunk of what lead to democracy was explicitly a reaction to the idea that the "state" would sanction a "state" religion.


PS. I am less up to speed on Islamic "end times" prophecy but fundamentalist Christians have done no one favors in this. The instance that there be a "jewish state" as prophesized by a 3rd century hermit thinking about what that would mean in Roman times is inflicting untold horrors on people.

This!
concordtom
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Is Israel simply going to wipe out 2M gazaians?
concordtom
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How long until Trump appears and says:
"Only I can fix it!

??????????
sycasey
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My take is that two things can be true:

1. Israel's apartheid-esque treatment of Palestinians within its borders and in quasi-autonomous regions (Gaza, West Bank) is terrible, and the way Netanyahu has been gradually raising the temperature during his time in power surely has not helped the situation.

2. Hamas having control in Gaza is also terrible. They are a violent terrorist organization that does not deserve support from anyone, and their actions against civilian concert-goers (many of whom do not support the Israeli government policies) cannot be justified.

There's not really a clear "bad guy" here like Putin in Ukraine, though if I had to say who has more POWER and AGENCY to improve the situation, it's Israel. The more they put the squeeze on Palestinian civilians, the more followers Hamas gains. Bibi's approach might provide some more short-term security for Israel, but in the long term he's hurting everyone. There needs to be a wholesale change in the Israeli political environment. I don't know how soon that will happen, so things will probably get worse before they get better. This whole thing is driven by religious grievances going back centuries, so that takes a lot to unwind.
socaltownie
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dajo9 said:

socaltownie said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Now neo-cons and neo-libs are trying to tie funding Ukraine and money for Israel together!! MORE BILLIONS!! How about no more money that we don't have to other countries until we have a budget that gets us to a point we aren't slashing social security 20% in 7 years!!!
You do realize that the degredation of Russia's military capacity (and the continued deterrance of China in the Tawian Straights) is really a cheap investment.

Social security largely solved if we would raise the exemption cap to $250,000. But of course BI'ers that are well paid salaried Lawyers, bankers and doctors would scream.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-propose-tax-cap-social-144535645.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALu_KbcrireARVZeh6Q8ZmFvNvDdiEcaUJZyGOGVzmzRBUqQFi91_x8cLvKAFNViXDNoTGok2S45P4fUutmTVhDj8tQIbVMGQM_hJ3J8kPxdCeJbhwFVPoJKOGuL48qX_JZhYA332a9uUo5gBCQNPYKbkz5o8TgfFnG_wCkMk9vt#:~:text=Raising%20the%20Cap,capacity%20beyond%20the%20next%20decade.





That group you are talking about raising taxes on is the most taxed group of Americans as a percent of income. I'm talking about high income earners as opposed to high wealth-holders.

How about a doughnut hole where payroll taxes begin again above $500k?

Or how about taxing capital gains like income, including payroll taxes (except maybe it doesn't begin until $250k). There are lots of solutions that don't tax the most taxed.
Problem is that income above $500K starts to largely be in non-wage forms and thus harder to tax. Also capital gains horribly volite. And it isn't clear once you add in EVERYTHING (income, SSI, sales tax, property) that your assertion that this group is "the most heavily taxed" is at all true. Income tax is highly progressive but the others are not and it is especially true that once we start looking at HH with over 250-300K the true tax incidence as a percentage of total income drops like a rock. It is why Warren Buffet pays an effective tax rate LOWER than his secretary or why there are years were Larry Ellison owed NOTHING.
socaltownie
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sycasey said:

My take is that two things can be true:

1. Israel's apartheid-esque treatment of Palestinians within its borders and in quasi-autonomous regions (Gaza, West Bank) is terrible, and the way Netanyahu has been gradually raising the temperature during his time in power surely has not helped the situation.

2. Hamas having control in Gaza is also terrible. They are a violent terrorist organization that does not deserve support from anyone, and their actions against civilian concert-goers (many of whom do not support the Israeli government policies) cannot be justified.

There's not really a clear "bad guy" here like Putin in Ukraine, though if I had to say who has more POWER and AGENCY to improve the situation, it's Israel. The more they put the squeeze on Palestinian civilians, the more followers Hamas gains. Bibi's approach might provide some more short-term security for Israel, but in the long term he's hurting everyone. There needs to be a wholesale change in the Israeli political environment. I don't know how soon that will happen, so things will probably get worse before they get better. This whole thing is driven by religious grievances going back centuries, so that takes a lot to unwind.
The correlation between poverty and terrorism is actually not a very strong one. It fits a judea-Christian narrative about the sources of violence but good social science have suggested at best a weak correlation with lots of confounding/interveening factors. Great literature (BTW)

I also am not sure the "religious" greviences works. Lots of that in European history to the extent that would make the middle east look like a cake walk (just look at some of what happened to in the German states, France and England during the counter reformation).

Rather - IMHO - it is that the middle east didn't HAVE things like the 30 years war or the English Civil War that infused into discourse the folly of trying to have the state impose religious views on a religiously hetrogenous population. Not a straight line, lots of revancionist efforts but the general trend in the enligtenment west was that it just didn't work and that far more prudent course was to remove the form of religious observation from politics.

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.

sycasey
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socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
dajo9
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socaltownie said:

dajo9 said:

socaltownie said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Now neo-cons and neo-libs are trying to tie funding Ukraine and money for Israel together!! MORE BILLIONS!! How about no more money that we don't have to other countries until we have a budget that gets us to a point we aren't slashing social security 20% in 7 years!!!
You do realize that the degredation of Russia's military capacity (and the continued deterrance of China in the Tawian Straights) is really a cheap investment.

Social security largely solved if we would raise the exemption cap to $250,000. But of course BI'ers that are well paid salaried Lawyers, bankers and doctors would scream.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-propose-tax-cap-social-144535645.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALu_KbcrireARVZeh6Q8ZmFvNvDdiEcaUJZyGOGVzmzRBUqQFi91_x8cLvKAFNViXDNoTGok2S45P4fUutmTVhDj8tQIbVMGQM_hJ3J8kPxdCeJbhwFVPoJKOGuL48qX_JZhYA332a9uUo5gBCQNPYKbkz5o8TgfFnG_wCkMk9vt#:~:text=Raising%20the%20Cap,capacity%20beyond%20the%20next%20decade.





That group you are talking about raising taxes on is the most taxed group of Americans as a percent of income. I'm talking about high income earners as opposed to high wealth-holders.

How about a doughnut hole where payroll taxes begin again above $500k?

Or how about taxing capital gains like income, including payroll taxes (except maybe it doesn't begin until $250k). There are lots of solutions that don't tax the most taxed.
Problem is that income above $500K starts to largely be in non-wage forms and thus harder to tax. Also capital gains horribly volite. And it isn't clear once you add in EVERYTHING (income, SSI, sales tax, property) that your assertion that this group is "the most heavily taxed" is at all true. Income tax is highly progressive but the others are not and it is especially true that once we start looking at HH with over 250-300K the true tax incidence as a percentage of total income drops like a rock. It is why Warren Buffet pays an effective tax rate LOWER than his secretary or why there are years were Larry Ellison owed NOTHING.
You are not arguing against me here. My whole point is that the Warren Buffet's and Larry Ellison's of the world, along with other asset owners should pay more. You originally proposed raising the cap to $250k and then you say that above $250k income, tax rates drop. Sounds like a good compromise between us would be a doughnut hole in which payroll taxes begin again above $250k.

Really, we should just do away with the fiction that there is a social security "fund". The Defense Department doesn't have a "fund". A social security "fund" is a policy choice that should be done away with. Tax how you see best and spend how you see best.
bearister
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Hamas announces it will begin to EXECUTE hostages



https://mol.im/a/12611665
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dajo9
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sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
bearister
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Israel-Hamas war live news: Israel pummels Gaza with intense air attacks | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-live-news-israel-orders-complete-siege-of-gaza-strip
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sycasey
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dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?
dajo9
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?


No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
dimitrig
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bearister said:

Hamas announces it will begin to EXECUTE hostages
https://mol.im/a/12611665


They seem nice.
dimitrig
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sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?


Having an ally in the Middle East has always been a strategic advantage for the US. It also distracts Iran and other Islamist states.

Without US support Israel would cease to exist. We need to leverage that truth more often when they make policy decisions we disagree with.

BearGoggles
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Slava Palestini said:


Moreover, an estimated majority of the Arabs in the territories (80 percent to 90 percent in Gaza, 40 percent in the West Bank) now adhere to the fundamentalist umbrella organization Hamas (the Movement of Islamic Opposition) and no longer consider the Palestine Liberation Organization their representative.

Their aim is not to advance the peace process, they say, but to show that they represent 60 percent of the Arab population.

A deep ideological gap separates Hamas and the P.L.O. Hamas holds that a Palestinian state must be Islamic, with a constitution based on the Koran. The P.L.O. advocates a secular state for Palestinians and includes factions that are Marxist and atheistic.

There is nothing to negotiate with Israel except its dismantling. Even Hamas's elected representatives, in the event of future elections, would not negotiate with the Jewish state.

Its members claim that, while Hamas would never negotiate a compromise with Israel, it would not obstruct others from doing so.

In light of the deadlock that blocks progress toward peace between Israel and the P.L.O., it is vital to remember that another option, involving Hamas, may exist.


That was a lot of crap surrounding a few important points. I've edited it for clarity.

The bottom line is that as long as Hamas exists (or has any power), there will not be peace. The bolded provision is instructive - they are hoping to have other negotiate a peace and then Hamas will take full advantage to destroy Israel. That is the exact reason Israel does not have a partner to negotiate with as long as Hamas has power.

I seriously question whether 80-90% of Gaza support Hamas or that 60% of all Palestinians do. Given that Hamas rules by terror and fear imposed on Palestinians, it would be really hard to know. But if that is in fact accurate, it is even more reason to treat Gaza harshly, both militarily and diplomatically.

In the long term, there is no way to successfully negotiate with fundamentalist islamists. They will never compromise their core beliefs. They will make strategic concession that advance those beliefs in the long run, but they will never abandon those beliefs which, literally, are religious. This is the Obama/Biden fallacy (or idiocy). They are accepting short term concessions (winning the battle) while Iran and other fundamentalists are playing a long game (and winning the war)

In this case, the eradication of Israel is a core belief. Unlike the US, Israel does not have the luxury of pretending otherwise.
socaltownie
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dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?


No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
Well no. It probably is in the United State's interest (at this point) to ensure that the nuclear armed Israel does not face a coalition of ME states that are looking to drive it into the sea. Just like the uS has an interest in maintaining a diplomatic presence in SW asia to ensure Pakistan and India do not go to war again.

Face it. Our way of life is, in large part, a function of us being the only global superpower, having the $$ as the global currency of choice and a set of institutions that advance US economic well being. Enjoy a world not like that with your 30% haircut to your current standard of living.
kal kommie
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dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?
No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
It is impossible for America to stay out of it because we are already in it. We are already not simply involved but integral to what has happened there for 50 years. We provide critical military, intelligence, economic, technological, diplomatic and ideological support for Israel in massive quantities.
bearister
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This morning I suggested to my wife that the Israeli security lapse seems hard to believe and what if Netanyahu wanted this to happen like some claim FDR knew Pearl Harbor was coming.

Then this:

"In one of the said warnings, Egypt's Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel personally called Netanyahu only 10 days before the massive attack that Gazans were likely to do "something unusual, a terrible operation," according to the Ynet news site.

"Unnamed Egyptian officials told the site they were shocked by Netanyahu's indifference to the news and said the premier told the minister the military was "submerged" in troubles in the West Bank."

Netanyahu's tRumpian response: "This is completely fake news."

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of 'something big' | The Times of Israel


https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

*I don't know whether Egypt's claim of a warning is true or not, but if it's true, Bibi's enemies within will get a spotlight on it.
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wifeisafurd
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concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

The current incursion was initiated for the rather transparent reason of trying to disrupt the normalization of Israeli relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries being pushed by the Biden Administration. For better or worse, their view was this would bring faster peace to the middle east. Instead, it now seems like just another proxy battle between Saudi and Iran which serves objectives of Hamas leaders financially with money from Iran (just as most aide ended up in PLO leadership pockets years before). A Saudi-Isreaal deal could lead to an infusion of Saudi money for the Palestinian Authority, a more moderate group than Hamas and the loss of money flowing to Hamas leaders.

Expect the Biden administration and Saudi Royals (indirectly) to provide weapons to Israel, and that will allow you to gauge the level of response by Israel. I'm not getting how this will help the Palestinians after Israel destroys the infrastructure in Gaza, and no one really cares about what either side thinks the their silly history lessons are at this point. We are where we are presently, as Gaza turns into rubble.


Wow! You summed it up wonderfully, laid at the feet of Biden. Pfft!


And here I thought this guy was behind it all.



Or maybe we should ask this guy.



Or let's consult this guy:



Yesterday I was doing some reading about who ruled Israel before there was an Israel. I landed at a Wikipedia page on Mandatory Palestine (British). Then you can click on "preceded by" link to that which goes back to Ottoman Empire.

This page might be worth reading.
Before you dump it on Biden's lap.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Palestine_war#:~:text=19471948%20civil%20war%20in%20Mandatory%20Palestine,-Main%20article%3A%201947&text=The%20first%20phase%20of%20the,statehood%20on%2014%20May%201948.

I suppose I shouldn't be so harsh on you.
You're not saying the whole thing. You're saying the current, most recent back and forth. Okay, I get it.
But you elicit such a response with your headlining Biden Administration line. Come on, now.
Tom, as often is the case, you're blinded by your hatred from Trump. Biden has been the President since January 20, 2021, and it is now October 9, 2023, so we are moving towards half-way in Biden's first term. This may come as a surprise to you, but Trump's son in law has not been involved in foreign affairs for some time, and Biden has well qualified experts and diplomats (and not his son in law) on the Middle East. You need to remove Trump from your a-hole already.

Biden and his staff have entered into high-stakes negotiations among Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States to normalize relationships. This has major economic, military and political consequeces for region and particuary for Iran. If Biden pulls it off, he shakes the dynamics of the Middle East and he isolates the influence of Iran and Putin in the region. Biden may also get an environmental bump, which is a discussion for another thread.

The relationship between Hamas and Israel has been deteriorating. The Netanyahu right coalition government has been conducting an escalating crackdown against what it says are rising Palestinian terror attacks for more than a couple years, but that doesn't really explain the timing. Hamas did't really have much in the way of military weapons to sustain a battle with Israel, but all of a sudden showed off it was armed, likely from Iran. Israel, which not only has a huge military advantage before, but is now being supplied by the US and other allies with the latest and greatest, as the US carrier fleet now moves in range, should be US be drawn in.

U.S. intelligence and military officers say they believed the timing of the Hamas attack was primarily aimed at disrupting negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as the Saudis appeared on the verge of a historic step to normalize relations with Israel. If you don't want to take their or my word for it, how about everyone else:

CBS:Experts say it could undermine his claim his leadership makes for a safer world. - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israeli-hamas-conflict-tests-bidens-foreign-policy-message/story?id=103836878

Time:TimeWhy Hamas Tried to Sabotage Peace Prospects With an Attack1 day ago

WSJ:The Wall Street JournalAfter Hamas Attacks Israel, Biden's Top Foreign-Policy Goals Hit Turbulence1 day ago

How about the administration (unnamed Senior Administration Official being interviewed for background):
Background Press Call by a Senior Administration Official ...The White House (.gov)https://www.whitehouse.gov Press Briefings

I could just go through pretty much every new service, right or left.


bearister
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"This may come as a surprise to you, but Trump's son in law has not been involved in foreign affairs for some time…."

You got that right. Get the $2B in the burlap sack and vamose outa Riyadh rapido.

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wifeisafurd
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bearister said:

This morning I suggested to my wife that the Israeli security lapse seems hard to believe and what if Netanyahu wanted this to happen like some claim FDR knew Pearl Harbor was coming.

Then this:

"In one of the said warnings, Egypt's Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel personally called Netanyahu only 10 days before the massive attack that Gazans were likely to do "something unusual, a terrible operation," according to the Ynet news site.

"Unnamed Egyptian officials told the site they were shocked by Netanyahu's indifference to the news and said the premier told the minister the military was "submerged" in troubles in the West Bank."

Netanyahu's tRumpian response: "This is completely fake news."

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of 'something big' | The Times of Israel


https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

*I don't know whether Egypt's claim of a warning is true or not, but if it's true, Bibi's enemies within will get a spotlight on it.
Bib's enemies are now supporting a unified "war cabinet" which includes a member from all parties. So one thing Hamas succeeded in is turning a peace movement in a divided Israel into a unified war movement led by Bibi.
dajo9
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kal kommie said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?
No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
It is impossible for America to stay out of it because we are already in it. We are already not simply involved but integral to what has happened there for 50 years. We provide critical military, intelligence, economic, technological, diplomatic and ideological support for Israel in massive quantities.


Every journey begins with a single step
Cal88
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socaltownie
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wifeisafurd said:

concordtom said:

wifeisafurd said:

The current incursion was initiated for the rather transparent reason of trying to disrupt the normalization of Israeli relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries being pushed by the Biden Administration. For better or worse, their view was this would bring faster peace to the middle east. Instead, it now seems like just another proxy battle between Saudi and Iran which serves objectives of Hamas leaders financially with money from Iran (just as most aide ended up in PLO leadership pockets years before). A Saudi-Isreaal deal could lead to an infusion of Saudi money for the Palestinian Authority, a more moderate group than Hamas and the loss of money flowing to Hamas leaders.

Expect the Biden administration and Saudi Royals (indirectly) to provide weapons to Israel, and that will allow you to gauge the level of response by Israel. I'm not getting how this will help the Palestinians after Israel destroys the infrastructure in Gaza, and no one really cares about what either side thinks the their silly history lessons are at this point. We are where we are presently, as Gaza turns into rubble.


Wow! You summed it up wonderfully, laid at the feet of Biden. Pfft!


And here I thought this guy was behind it all.



Or maybe we should ask this guy.



Or let's consult this guy:



Yesterday I was doing some reading about who ruled Israel before there was an Israel. I landed at a Wikipedia page on Mandatory Palestine (British). Then you can click on "preceded by" link to that which goes back to Ottoman Empire.

This page might be worth reading.
Before you dump it on Biden's lap.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Palestine_war#:~:text=19471948%20civil%20war%20in%20Mandatory%20Palestine,-Main%20article%3A%201947&text=The%20first%20phase%20of%20the,statehood%20on%2014%20May%201948.

I suppose I shouldn't be so harsh on you.
You're not saying the whole thing. You're saying the current, most recent back and forth. Okay, I get it.
But you elicit such a response with your headlining Biden Administration line. Come on, now.
Tom, as often is the case, you're blinded by your hatred from Trump. Biden has been the President since January 20, 2021, and it is now October 9, 2023, so we are moving towards half-way in Biden's first term. This may come as a surprise to you, but Trump's son in law has not been involved in foreign affairs for some time, and Biden has well qualified experts and diplomats (and not his son in law) on the Middle East. You need to remove Trump from your a-hole already.

Biden and his staff have entered into high-stakes negotiations among Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States to normalize relationships. This has major economic, military and political consequeces for region and particuary for Iran. If Biden pulls it off, he shakes the dynamics of the Middle East and he isolates the influence of Iran and Putin in the region. Biden may also get an environmental bump, which is a discussion for another thread.

The relationship between Hamas and Israel has been deteriorating. The Netanyahu right coalition government has been conducting an escalating crackdown against what it says are rising Palestinian terror attacks for more than a couple years, but that doesn't really explain the timing. Hamas did't really have much in the way of military weapons to sustain a battle with Israel, but all of a sudden showed off it was armed, likely from Iran. Israel, which not only has a huge military advantage before, but is now being supplied by the US and other allies with the latest and greatest, as the US carrier fleet now moves in range, should be US be drawn in.

U.S. intelligence and military officers say they believed the timing of the Hamas attack was primarily aimed at disrupting negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as the Saudis appeared on the verge of a historic step to normalize relations with Israel. If you don't want to take their or my word for it, how about everyone else:

CBS:Experts say it could undermine his claim his leadership makes for a safer world. - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israeli-hamas-conflict-tests-bidens-foreign-policy-message/story?id=103836878

Time:TimeWhy Hamas Tried to Sabotage Peace Prospects With an Attack1 day ago

WSJ:The Wall Street JournalAfter Hamas Attacks Israel, Biden's Top Foreign-Policy Goals Hit Turbulence1 day ago

How about the administration (unnamed Senior Administration Official being interviewed for background):
Background Press Call by a Senior Administration Official ...The White House (.gov)https://www.whitehouse.gov Press Briefings

I could just go through pretty much every new service, right or left.



I think Tom (and I for sure) would quibble with your framing of "Biden pushed" the Saudi/Israel rapproachment. They clearly are OK with it (which is probably good for overall long term stability in the middle east) but your verb choice suggests a lot more power and influence than I think ANY US administration has over EITHER of those countries foreign policy. The benefits of being a medium sized state with a principal adversary your "patron" is also very much at odds with.
socaltownie
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wifeisafurd said:

bearister said:

This morning I suggested to my wife that the Israeli security lapse seems hard to believe and what if Netanyahu wanted this to happen like some claim FDR knew Pearl Harbor was coming.

Then this:

"In one of the said warnings, Egypt's Intelligence Minister General Abbas Kamel personally called Netanyahu only 10 days before the massive attack that Gazans were likely to do "something unusual, a terrible operation," according to the Ynet news site.

"Unnamed Egyptian officials told the site they were shocked by Netanyahu's indifference to the news and said the premier told the minister the military was "submerged" in troubles in the West Bank."

Netanyahu's tRumpian response: "This is completely fake news."

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of 'something big' | The Times of Israel


https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

*I don't know whether Egypt's claim of a warning is true or not, but if it's true, Bibi's enemies within will get a spotlight on it.
Bib's enemies are now supporting a unified "war cabinet" which includes a member from all parties. So one thing Hamas succeeded in is turning a peace movement in a divided Israel into a unified war movement led by Bibi.
WHich is probably a good thing. Some of the reports (I don't follow internal Israel politics much at all) suggest that a problem for Bibi was that because his ruling coalition has a number of small West Bank Settler parties he has been much more focused on weakening the PA and enabling settlers which took attention off hamas and gaza. If the unity party diminshes the wacky fring of the settler movement that is a damm good thing because they are nearly as bad as Hamas and would be if they were politically powerless.
kal kommie
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dajo9 said:

kal kommie said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?
No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
It is impossible for America to stay out of it because we are already in it. We are already not simply involved but integral to what has happened there for 50 years. We provide critical military, intelligence, economic, technological, diplomatic and ideological support for Israel in massive quantities.
Every journey begins with a single step
I'd love for that step to be taken but unfortunately I'm betting on steps in the other direction. Our entire political class is allied with Israel. Approx 98% of the House and 100% of the Senate were supporters (tacit or explicit) of the status quo even before Hamas' assault on Saturday. Opposing the alliance with Israel will only become even harder now politically.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:


Wikipedia says Gaza has a population of 2 million people. Are half of them children?
Eastern Oregon Bear
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dajo9 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

dajo9 said:

Israel has shut off electricity, water, and food to Gaza. Looks like Israel has taken about 800,000 hostages.

The U.S. should not be involved.
Here comes the "US is involved in everything and everything is the fault of the US" crowd in 3... 2... 1...


I really hope you aren't trying to lump me in with that crowd. That type is here and the U.S. is never wrong type is here and then some people like me look at different foreign policy happenings and come up with different opinions based on the underlying facts.
No, I wasn't making that comment towards you. I was referring to a few others and there's actually been less of it than I expected. I shouldn't have quoted your post. It should have a stand alone post.
kal kommie
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Cal88 said:


Wikipedia says Gaza has a population of 2 million people. Are half of them children?
800k (44%) are age 14 or under

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_State_of_Palestine#Demographics_of_the_Gaza_Strip
socaltownie
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kal kommie said:

dajo9 said:

kal kommie said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

socaltownie said:

At the core I really do believe that is the core challenge - that the majority in Israel want it as a "jewish state" even though demographics are against them and that too many in the Palestinian community want Palestine as a "muslim state" even though that ignores the reality of 8 million jews without really an enlightenment inspired polical culture that elevates tolerance to a central position. I readily admit that such a view doesn't get us to a solution.
Yeah, I generally agree with that. Ethnostates don't work in the long run, but Israel and Palestine want to be ethnostates. Not sure what changes the mindset. Maybe people get tired of all the fighting.
A pox on both their houses. America should stay out of it.
On this point: what is the case for the US continuing to support Israel? Does it benefit us in some material way?
No. In fact it harms us. Gets us involved in things that should have nothing to do with us.
It is impossible for America to stay out of it because we are already in it. We are already not simply involved but integral to what has happened there for 50 years. We provide critical military, intelligence, economic, technological, diplomatic and ideological support for Israel in massive quantities.
Every journey begins with a single step
I'd love for that step to be taken but unfortunately I'm betting on steps in the other direction. Our entire political class is allied with Israel. Approx 98% of the House and 100% of the Senate were supporters (tacit or explicit) of the status quo even before Hamas' assault on Saturday. Opposing the alliance with Israel will only become even harder now politically.
Which is why I have never understood the political actions by the Palestinians. It has struck me that they would make FAR more progress toward what at least SOME of them want (others I am convinced WANT the status quo because of personally benefiting from aid from the gulf states) if they engaged in non-violent protests. While the provisional IRA overtook NICRA during the early 1970s absent the memory of things like Bloody sunday I don't think you see the pressure on London and Ulster to reach a settlement. 10,000 Palestinian mothers cutting through the fence to reclaim homes and forcing Israel to resort to violence would not be a pretty scene on Western TV
Eastern Oregon Bear
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kal kommie said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Cal88 said:


Wikipedia says Gaza has a population of 2 million people. Are half of them children?
800k (44%) are age 14 or under

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_State_of_Palestine#Demographics_of_the_Gaza_Strip
OK, I stand somewhat corrected. It's not half, but 44% under the age of 15 is a crazy demographic.
bearister
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If Israeli/Palestinian Conflict Kill Ratios since 2005 stay consistent, a whole lite of Palestinians are about to die.

As of 2014:

"Since January 2005, when the conflict began to change dramatically, it has killed 4,006 people, of whom 168 have been Israeli and 3,838 Palestinian. That means that, since January 2005, only four percent of those killed have been Israeli, and 96 percent Palestinian. Since January 2005, in other words, the conflict has killed 23 Palestinians for every one Israeli it claims."

This chart shows every person killed in the Israel-Palestine conflict since 2000 - Vox


https://www.vox.com/2014/7/14/5898581/chart-israel-palestine-conflict-deaths

From 2021:

"The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has been tracking deaths in the conflict since 2008 and its data shows that 5,600 Palestinians died up to 2020 while 115,000 were injured. 250 Israelis died during the same period while 5,600 were injured."
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/16516/israeli-palestinian-casualties-by-in-gaza-and-the-west-bank/
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