The Non-Yogi Israel-Palestine war thread

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Cal88
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1:29p, 6/27/25
Jesus Christ, there is no limit to their barbarism.

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bear2034
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1:30p, 6/27/25
What do you guys have so far for death toll estimates since October 7?

Palestinians: 40,000
Hamas: 20,000
Israelis: 2,000
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Cal88
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In reply to bear2034 • 1:57p, 6/27/25
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.


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tequila4kapp
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:19p, 6/27/25
The linked Harvard study is difficult to access on my phone. From what I can see it does not reach the purported conclusion. It discusses aid distribution, not population. If there is content specific to the 366k conclusion could you post it?
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Cal88
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 2:50p, 6/28/25
tequila4kapp said:
The linked Harvard study is difficult to access on my phone. From what I can see it does not reach the purported conclusion. It discusses aid distribution, not population. If there is content specific to the 366k conclusion could you post it?

You can access it on your computer then.
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bear2034
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:06p, 6/28/25
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.

One innocent death is a tragedy and everything else is a statistic. And no one can claim to have a firm grip on the numbers. Estimates from the Gaza Health Ministry, the Lancet Studies, and the Economist range from 50,000 to 100,000. Israel claims 20,000 of that number are Hamas fighters.
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Cal88
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In reply to bear2034 • 3:25p, 6/28/25
bear2034 said:
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.

One innocent death is a tragedy and everything else is a statistic. And no one can claim to have a firm grip on the numbers. Estimates from the Gaza Health Ministry, the Lancet Studies, and the Economist range from 50,000 to 100,000. Israel claims 20,000 of that number are Hamas fighters.

The Lancet study estimate of total Palestinian deaths from Israeli bombings and food siege was 186,000, and that was nearly a full year ago, before the Israelis shut down food distribution and Trump stepped out the delivery of 2,000lb bombs.

Israel used the equivalent of 5 Hiroshima bombs of TNT on a population of 2.2 million packed into an enclave the size of Manhattan, bombed their healthcare system, their utilities, and has been conducting a medieval siege for several months now, and you think they had only 50,000 deaths??
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:28p, 6/28/25
Cal88 said:
tequila4kapp said:
The linked Harvard study is difficult to access on my phone. From what I can see it does not reach the purported conclusion. It discusses aid distribution, not population. If there is content specific to the 366k conclusion could you post it?

You can access it on your computer then.
Traveling, no computer
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bearister
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In reply to Chapman_is_Gone • 1:14p, 6/29/25
Chapman_is_Gone said:
<inappropriate content deleted>


You are getting your wish.

Israeli military considers new Gaza operation strategy, ceasefire stalls | The Jerusalem Post


https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-859319

"Inside the IDF, there is an ongoing debate over whether to press forward militarily or declare the war's main objectives achieved. These accomplishments include the destruction of Hamas's military infrastructure, the targeted killing of senior commanders…..

IDF assessments suggest that Hamas has reached its weakest point since taking over Gaza in 2007, forcing it to shift its focus from the battlefield to the diplomatic arena.

Nevertheless, some high-ranking officers believe a wide-scale ground maneuver remains necessary. Such an action would likely result in the largest civilian displacement since the war began."

Hopefully for you, Trump will be successful getting the criminal case against Bibi dropped (under threat of withholding future aid) so that Bibi can pull the trigger on his Rome Total War/Kill'em all and let the dogs sort them out style of warfare in Gaza.
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Anarchistbear
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2:14p, 6/29/25
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bear2034
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In reply to Cal88 • 4:13p, 6/29/25
Cal88 said:
bear2034 said:
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.

One innocent death is a tragedy and everything else is a statistic. And no one can claim to have a firm grip on the numbers. Estimates from the Gaza Health Ministry, the Lancet Studies, and the Economist range from 50,000 to 100,000. Israel claims 20,000 of that number are Hamas fighters.

The Lancet study estimate of total Palestinian deaths from Israeli bombings and food siege was 186,000, and that was nearly a full year ago, before the Israelis shut down food distribution and Trump stepped out the delivery of 2,000lb bombs.

Israel used the equivalent of 5 Hiroshima bombs of TNT on a population of 2.2 million packed into an enclave the size of Manhattan, bombed their healthcare system, their utilities, and has been conducting a medieval siege for several months now, and you think they had only 50,000 deaths??

As of June 2025, the Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas, reports over 58,400 Palestinian deaths in Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023. A May 2025 study by The Economist estimated the death toll potentially ranging from 77,000 to 109,000.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to bear2034 • 5:35p, 6/29/25
Of which some large number are Hamas fighters
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Cal88
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In reply to bear2034 • 5:39p, 6/29/25
bear2034 said:
Cal88 said:
bear2034 said:
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.

One innocent death is a tragedy and everything else is a statistic. And no one can claim to have a firm grip on the numbers. Estimates from the Gaza Health Ministry, the Lancet Studies, and the Economist range from 50,000 to 100,000. Israel claims 20,000 of that number are Hamas fighters.

The Lancet study estimate of total Palestinian deaths from Israeli bombings and food siege was 186,000, and that was nearly a full year ago, before the Israelis shut down food distribution and Trump stepped out the delivery of 2,000lb bombs.

Israel used the equivalent of 5 Hiroshima bombs of TNT on a population of 2.2 million packed into an enclave the size of Manhattan, bombed their healthcare system, their utilities, and has been conducting a medieval siege for several months now, and you think they had only 50,000 deaths??

As of June 2025, the Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas, reports over 58,400 Palestinian deaths in Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023. A May 2025 study by The Economist estimated the death toll potentially ranging from 77,000 to 109,000.

There is no "health ministry" in Gaza to speak of, everything has been turned to rubble, that number is like a stuck odometer on an old car. One year ago that number was already close to 50,000, and that was back when they had food, and the bombing has not abated since, if anything it got worse.

Even last year that "official" number was off, the Lancet study from June 2024 already set the number of direct deaths from Israeli bombings and shootings at 64,000. The reason for that is that the official number counts the dead registered at hospital morgues, not the people curried elsewhere or smashed in the rubble, with the majority of houses and buildings already bombed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/10/gaza-death-toll-40-higher-than-official-number-lancet-study-finds
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bearister
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In reply to Cal88 • 5:51p, 6/29/25
That is only 155 Palestinians killed per Israeli killed on 10/6. The Proportionality of Response element of the Just War Theory*has sufficient elasticity in it to justify that. Right?

*I apologize. I forgot that every Palestinian life is in play until Bibi deems Hamas defeated and that the Just War Theory is wholly irrelevant to the analysis.
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Cal88
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6:22a, 6/30/25
Israeli kids destroying food destined for Gaza.

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Cal88
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6:30a, 6/30/25
IDF used elementary school as human shield.

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tequila4kapp
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In reply to Cal88 • 6:32a, 6/30/25
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.



As I expected, the initial social media post you relied on is bunk. 1. It does not support the statement 377k people are dead; 2) it is not a Harvard study.

Don't believe me? Well, since I could not find data in the report to support that conclusion I reached out to the author of the report. Here is his response:

"Hi there,

Thanks for checking! Believe me, no one is as surprised as me to see these things inferred from my report. Some one made an outlandish and unchecked inference from some numbers in a map in the report, somehow interpreted a massive population loss since these did not sum to the Gaza prewar population. That somehow got picked up and recirculated without anyone checking it or, in fact, even reading the actual report, as you have done!

This viral rubbish is a real pain. Since I am about to leave tomorrow for a sabbatical for a couple of months (to Berkeley, for some of it, actually) I will be brief, and just paste below a few of the links debunking these weird claims so far--I imagine there will be more. Whenever you encounter some misrepresentation of my report feel free to use one or more of them. Am also attaching some good pieces of journalism that refer to the report.

My update on the Harvard dataverse site was supposed to go up a week ago, but the site has been overloaded because of all the downloads, so I have not been able to, and am attaching the cover document and a slightly modified version. If you want any of the other attachments of spatial layer mentioned, let me know.

There are so many awful and factually validated things going on in Gaza, and the recirculation of this kind of irresponsible viral crap does not help Gazans or anyone else, and just wastes the time of people trying to do serious work.

Best,

Yaakov

Prof. Yaakov Garb"

One of the articles he linked:
- Posts misrepresent report to falsely claim nearly Palestinians are missing | AP News: https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians-86b40dc1de388e860927495c00880d59](https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians-86b40dc1de388e860927495c00880d59


So, just as I suspected, you are wrong. You live in a world where you get all of your news from biased social media sources, regurgitate that stuff without serious thought, then accuse the rest of us of only getting filtered biased mainstream news. And you do so without any consideration for the irony of it.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:38a, 6/30/25
Cal88 said:
IDF used elementary school as human shield.

When it comes to translated Hebrew messages on a white board that could be located anywhere, I always trust a reliable source like @ireallyhateyou.
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Cal88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 10:09a, 6/30/25
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
Cal88 said:
IDF used elementary school as human shield.

When it comes to translated Hebrew messages on a white board that could be located anywhere, I always trust a reliable source like @ireallyhateyou.

It's a retweet of a FB post from the Israeli Ministry of Education. If that wasn't real, it would have been struck by X's Community Notes, which are actively edited by a large number of pro-Israeli people.
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Cal88
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 12:04p, 7/1/25
tequila4kapp said:
Cal88 said:
Those figures are bunk.

377,000 Palestinians are missing in Gaza. The original population of 2.2 million is now down to 1.8 million.



As I expected, the initial social media post you relied on is bunk. 1. It does not support the statement 377k people are dead; 2) it is not a Harvard study.

Don't believe me? Well, since I could not find data in the report to support that conclusion I reached out to the author of the report. Here is his response:

"Hi there,

Thanks for checking! Believe me, no one is as surprised as me to see these things inferred from my report. Some one made an outlandish and unchecked inference from some numbers in a map in the report, somehow interpreted a massive population loss since these did not sum to the Gaza prewar population. That somehow got picked up and recirculated without anyone checking it or, in fact, even reading the actual report, as you have done!

This viral rubbish is a real pain. Since I am about to leave tomorrow for a sabbatical for a couple of months (to Berkeley, for some of it, actually) I will be brief, and just paste below a few of the links debunking these weird claims so far--I imagine there will be more. Whenever you encounter some misrepresentation of my report feel free to use one or more of them. Am also attaching some good pieces of journalism that refer to the report.

My update on the Harvard dataverse site was supposed to go up a week ago, but the site has been overloaded because of all the downloads, so I have not been able to, and am attaching the cover document and a slightly modified version. If you want any of the other attachments of spatial layer mentioned, let me know.

There are so many awful and factually validated things going on in Gaza, and the recirculation of this kind of irresponsible viral crap does not help Gazans or anyone else, and just wastes the time of people trying to do serious work.

Best,

Yaakov

Prof. Yaakov Garb"

One of the articles he linked:
- Posts misrepresent report to falsely claim nearly Palestinians are missing | AP News: https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians-86b40dc1de388e860927495c00880d59](https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-harvard-study-gaza-missing-palestinians-86b40dc1de388e860927495c00880d59


So, just as I suspected, you are wrong. You live in a world where you get all of your news from biased social media sources, regurgitate that stuff without serious thought, then accuse the rest of us of only getting filtered biased mainstream news. And you do so without any consideration for the irony of it.

The relevant aspect of Garb's paper is that he came up with a precise estimate of the Gaza population that was 377,000 short of the number before the genocide for the purpose of managing the ethnic cleansing of Gazans, who have been forcibly pushed into 3 smaller concentration camps. Anything outside of these areas today is an instant kill zone, while the Gazans inside the designated areas only get intermittent bombings.

It's quite laughable for Garb to state that his research being "misinterpreted" hurts the Palestinians, talk about chutzpah, the height of concern trolling.

It's also beyond laughable for Yaakov Garb to try to explain away the 377,000 discrepancy by claiming that the population in one of the three concentration camps was actually 700,000 instead of 500,000, because he made a typo. Unreal.



You're hopelessly committed to the zionist cause, they can do no wrong, and if they kill and starve hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, it is because they are benevolent folks just trying to get along with uncivilized local interlopers who just don't understand that God gave the settlers that land. It's like the owner of a raging pitbull who claims that the kids his pet has mauled were just misbehaving and had it coming.
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Cal88
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12:23p, 7/1/25


Hunting Palestinian kids for sport has been a longstanding fixture in Israel:
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bearister
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:50p, 7/1/25
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bear2034
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6:28p, 7/1/25
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bearister
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In reply to bear2034 • 6:43p, 7/1/25


The after party celebration:


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Cal88
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9:44a, 7/2/25
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Anarchistbear
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4:24p, 7/2/25


When you aren't getting paid off…
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bear2034
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5:08p, 7/2/25
By 2026, no Democrat will be able to win a primary without being openly pro-Palestine.

By 2028, no Democrat will be able to win a primary without being openly pro-Hamas.
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bearister
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In reply to bear2034 • 6:22p, 7/2/25
How are Republicans going to do when even the most mentally impaired MAGA is going to be able to figure out that he done got buggered by the One Big Beautiful Bill?
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Cal88
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In reply to bear2034 • 7:08p, 7/2/25
bear2034 said:
By 2026, no Democrat will be able to win a primary without being openly pro-Palestine.

By 2028, no Democrat will be able to win a primary without being openly pro-Hamas.

As opposed to this clownshow?

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bearister
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7:11a, 7/3/25
Bill in US Congress would give Israel access to B2 stealth bombers


https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rykv2gqbll
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to bearister • 7:50a, 7/3/25
bearister said:
Bill in US Congress would give Israel access to B2 stealth bombers

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rykv2gqbll
This is a good thing - the key point there is "access", not sell. Basically it enables Israel to do it all themselves with loaner B2s if Iran gets its nuke program going again.
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Cal88
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 9:36a, 7/3/25
tequila4kapp said:
bearister said:
Bill in US Congress would give Israel access to B2 stealth bombers

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rykv2gqbll
This is a good thing - the key point there is "access", not sell. Basically it enables Israel to do it all themselves with loaner B2s if Iran gets its nuke program going again.

It takes a long time to train pilots and maintenance crews to use a system like the B-2. Also, these bombers would be big targets for Iran on Israeli air bases, even under concrete hangars. You're just going to have American crews flying and maintaining B-2s with Israeli markings parked in Missouri or Diego Garcia.

This deal basically puts the USAF under the command of Israel.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to Cal88 • 9:50a, 7/3/25
Agree. But I see this as a corollary to Ukraine. Where possible let's achieve objectives without putting American lives at risk. No boots on the ground in Ukraine, but give them weapons...if Israeli wants to put their pilots in harms way over Iranian airspace and we keep ours safe, let them have at it.
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sycasey
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10:06a, 7/3/25
I don't think military strikes on Iran will achieve any of our objectives . . . unless we want to keep on doing them indefinitely.
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Cal88
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10:25a, 7/3/25
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