Cal88 said:
Maybe people aren't turning in to vote for Trump in the primaries because it is a foregone conclusion that he is going to get the most votes.
You could copy that statement, replace Trump with Biden and it would be just as true.Cal88 said:
Maybe people aren't turning in to vote for Trump in the primaries because it is a foregone conclusion that he is going to get the most votes.
sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
It's also consistently been the case that a high percentage of Haley voters say they will never vote for Trump. Trump is toxic with independents and is likely to receive a meaningfully smaller percentage of GOP this time around.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
I'm pretty sure you can find similar numbers from other contested primaries in the past: Hillary Clinton voters saying they'd never vote for Obama, etc. Most of them tend to come home.Unit2Sucks said:It's also consistently been the case that a high percentage of Haley voters say they will never vote for Trump. Trump is toxic with independents and is likely to receive a meaningfully smaller percentage of GOP this time around.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
In 2016 Trump had a certain novelty as the outsider, etc. He also ran against the single most hated woman in politics, which had a substantial motivating effect for conservatives.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
movielover said:
Macy's Union Square for sales, Macys closing many locations.
Downtown Chicago losing malls. I guess the rampant criminality caught up to them. Pigs in a blanket, fry em like bacon, crime is good. What a concept.
Is this really contested or is it presumptive? Trump is doing much worse than expected (and much worse than Biden) yet the media is desperately trying to make it seem like Trump is strong and Biden is weak.sycasey said:I'm pretty sure you can find similar numbers from other contested primaries in the past: Hillary Clinton voters saying they'd never vote for Obama, etc. Most of them tend to come home.Unit2Sucks said:It's also consistently been the case that a high percentage of Haley voters say they will never vote for Trump. Trump is toxic with independents and is likely to receive a meaningfully smaller percentage of GOP this time around.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
That said, it is different this time with Trump as a quasi-incumbent and known quantity.
Quote:
With most votes counted on Wednesday morning, 13 percent of primary voters had chosen "uncommitted" a share that paled next to Mr. Biden's 81 percent, but represented more than 100,000 people in Michigan who made the effort to lodge their disapproval of the president.
Biden did much better with democrats in Michigan than Trump did with republicans, but you would never know it from the tone of the NYT reporting.Quote:
Nikki Haley's still in it, but she's not going to win it.
Donald J. Trump won again. Nikki Haley lost again.
At one point in the nominating calendar, the Michigan primary had the potential to be a brief but notable way station between the four first states and Super Tuesday.
But the lopsided results offered more of the same, with Mr. Trump dominating everywhere in Michigan and Ms. Haley on track for her weakest showing since the race narrowed to two candidates. She marches on, with planned rallies and fund-raisers in seven states and Washington, D.C., before Super Tuesday on March 5.
Quote:
"Interesting to not that Trump was "projected" by Klein and the Times to win overwhelmingly, indeed to poll in the 90's, while Biden was "projected" to poll in the 70's. In the end, Trump was at 70%, Biden at 85%. Yet your coverage described Trump's victory as overwhelming while Biden is in trouble. As a long time reader, and I mean 60 years long, I'd like to hear an explanation of the inconsistency and the sudden changes in your description of the candidates and their performance."
Oh yeah, many of the headlines don't really make sense.Unit2Sucks said:Is this really contested or is it presumptive? Trump is doing much worse than expected (and much worse than Biden) yet the media is desperately trying to make it seem like Trump is strong and Biden is weak.sycasey said:I'm pretty sure you can find similar numbers from other contested primaries in the past: Hillary Clinton voters saying they'd never vote for Obama, etc. Most of them tend to come home.Unit2Sucks said:It's also consistently been the case that a high percentage of Haley voters say they will never vote for Trump. Trump is toxic with independents and is likely to receive a meaningfully smaller percentage of GOP this time around.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
That said, it is different this time with Trump as a quasi-incumbent and known quantity.
To wit: Michigan Primary Takeaways: 'Uncommitted' Makes Itself Heard
Unit2Sucks said:It's also consistently been the case that a high percentage of Haley voters say they will never vote for Trump. Trump is toxic with independents and is likely to receive a meaningfully smaller percentage of GOP this time around.sycasey said:
I'm not sure that uncompetitive primary results really mean much at the margins, but it is interesting that Trump has underperformed the 538 average by roughly the same percentage in each one.
But if you think his loss in 2024 is going to look bad, wait until 2028. He will still have enough dead-ender MAGAt support to win the nomination (after claiming he would have won had it not been rigged, again).
I worked for a retail business just off of Union Square in 1990. Even back then, the signs of a decline in shopping in downtown San Francisco in favor of the big box stores in suburban shopping malls was obvious. The chain of stores I worked for back then went out of business around 2005 and had shrunk from 25 Bay Area stores to just 1 by then. The current state of affairs is just the end game of a long running trend.movielover said:
Going 'Downtown' was a thing, just like famous Union Square. Shopping, people watching, lunch or dinner.
Rampant theft, violence, open drug bazaars (aka homeless), car jacking, car thieves never caught in The City, sideshows... scare away most families, women, children and old people. And men.
Shopping in Santa Row and Napa / Sonoma is still enjoyable. Yes, the above negative externalities drove even more sales online.
Eastern Oregon Bear said:I worked for a retail business just off of Union Square in 1990. Even back then, the signs of a decline in shopping in downtown San Francisco in favor of the big box stores in suburban shopping malls was obvious. The chain of stores I worked for back then went out of business around 2005 and had shrunk from 25 Bay Area stores to just 1 by then. The current state of affairs in just the end game of a long running trend.movielover said:
Going 'Downtown' was a thing, just like famous Union Square. Shopping, people watching, lunch or dinner.
Rampant theft, violence, open drug bazaars (aka homeless), car jacking, car thieves never caught in The City, sideshows... scare away most families, women, children and old people. And men.
Shopping in Santa Row and Napa / Sonoma is still enjoyable. Yes, the above negative externalities drove even more sales online.
Do you remember 2016 when polls showed HRC beating Trump?movielover said:
Better polling comparison. Take Pennsylvania.
President Trump is beating Joe Biden in this battleground state poll by 6 points. Yet GOP Senate candidate, Dave McCormick, is running 7 points behind the Democrat Bob Casey.
The combined margin of difference is 13 points, i.e., Trump pulls more support within the state than the GOP.
The Trump America First tent is much wider than the corporate GOPe party / Jeb Bush wing.
Same dynamic we see in the latest polling from Maine. Statewide, Donald Trump now leads Joe Biden by six points [Trump: 38% (+6), Biden: 32%], where only a few short months ago Biden was leading by one.
Key issues in Maine?
Cost of Living: 62%
Inflation: 37%
High taxes: 32%
Insurance: 27%
Opioid crisis: 22%
Jobs: 22%
Environment/ Climate change: 21%
Pan Atlantic poll, top three issues facing Maine
Funny how Thune starts tweeting about the border crisis just before McConnell's announcement.
— Jeff Carlson (@themarketswork) February 28, 2024
Nothing of note in his timeline and then suddenly several border-related tweets in the last 24 hours.
Spoiler Alert: He doesn't care. But he does care about succeeding McConnell. https://t.co/WhD1G8QsUq
movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
I give you The Who:movielover said:
McConnell stepping down.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-stepping-down-senate-republican-leader/
Recently, his sister in laws Tesla backed into a pond and she died.Funny how Thune starts tweeting about the border crisis just before McConnell's announcement.
— Jeff Carlson (@themarketswork) February 28, 2024
Nothing of note in his timeline and then suddenly several border-related tweets in the last 24 hours.
Spoiler Alert: He doesn't care. But he does care about succeeding McConnell. https://t.co/WhD1G8QsUq
I'm sure crime at certain locations is a factor, but Macy's is also closing 150 stores nationwide? Seems like the company also just has larger problems like a lot of brick-and-mortar retail chains do.82gradDLSdad said:movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Trust me, this is certainly a factor in SF's store closures. I would love to hear any politician say it is a top priority to restore law and order. No excuses. There are many other factors too. It pained me that my Nordstrom CMO BIL couldn't bring himself to tell me that the SF environment of which we speak wasn't a factor in why Nordstrom shut down. It was like I was an unknown shareholder or something. "We just decided to go in a different direction."
movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
sycasey said:I'm sure crime at certain locations is a factor, but Macy's is also closing 150 stores nationwide? Seems like the company also just has larger problems like a lot of brick-and-mortar retail chains do.82gradDLSdad said:movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Trust me, this is certainly a factor in SF's store closures. I would love to hear any politician say it is a top priority to restore law and order. No excuses. There are many other factors too. It pained me that my Nordstrom CMO BIL couldn't bring himself to tell me that the SF environment of which we speak wasn't a factor in why Nordstrom shut down. It was like I was an unknown shareholder or something. "We just decided to go in a different direction."
Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Well . . . at least in the major California metro areas we have spent a lot of money on the problem except building new housing. A lot of NIMBY energy has been preventing it for decades.tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Easy. Crime is "lower" because all kinds of behaviors have been decriminalized or become non-chargeable since everyone knows the perpetrators won't be prosecuted.Unit2Sucks said:tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Now explain why crime is much lower than it was 15. 20 and 30 years ago.
Why is the homicide rate 3x in Alabama compared to New York City?
Is it possible the drivers of crime aren't as simplistic as politicians and partisans like to pretend? I certainly don't think we can categorically rule out any impact from the factors you focus on, nor do I believe they are as impactful as many claim.
I do know that mass incarceration has a very negative impact on young men and their families which created an existential set of problems in our society.
tequila4kapp said:Easy. Crime is "lower" because all kinds of behaviors have been decriminalized or become non-chargeable since everyone knows the perpetrators won't be prosecuted.Unit2Sucks said:tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Now explain why crime is much lower than it was 15. 20 and 30 years ago.
Why is the homicide rate 3x in Alabama compared to New York City?
Is it possible the drivers of crime aren't as simplistic as politicians and partisans like to pretend? I certainly don't think we can categorically rule out any impact from the factors you focus on, nor do I believe they are as impactful as many claim.
I do know that mass incarceration has a very negative impact on young men and their families which created an existential set of problems in our society.
Nice try. We are talking about crime that has allegedly led to retail stores closing. Theft.Unit2Sucks said:Can you point me to the evidence that rape, arson and murder have been decriminalized? Home invasions? Armed robberies?tequila4kapp said:Easy. Crime is "lower" because all kinds of behaviors have been decriminalized or become non-chargeable since everyone knows the perpetrators won't be prosecuted.Unit2Sucks said:tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Now explain why crime is much lower than it was 15. 20 and 30 years ago.
Why is the homicide rate 3x in Alabama compared to New York City?
Is it possible the drivers of crime aren't as simplistic as politicians and partisans like to pretend? I certainly don't think we can categorically rule out any impact from the factors you focus on, nor do I believe they are as impactful as many claim.
I do know that mass incarceration has a very negative impact on young men and their families which created an existential set of problems in our society.
What has been decriminalized that could be impacting the data?
tequila4kapp said:Nice try. We are talking about crime that has allegedly led to retail stores closing. Theft.Unit2Sucks said:Can you point me to the evidence that rape, arson and murder have been decriminalized? Home invasions? Armed robberies?tequila4kapp said:Easy. Crime is "lower" because all kinds of behaviors have been decriminalized or become non-chargeable since everyone knows the perpetrators won't be prosecuted.Unit2Sucks said:tequila4kapp said:Those problems have always existed. The reason crime is up because equity driven soft on crime measures means people get away with it.Big C said:The only reason some poor soul goes into a Macy's and steals $949 worth of cosmetics and then sells them to a fence is that they are hungry and can't afford a loaf of bread,movielover said:
The Standard: Macy's Union Square workers say rampant shoplifting to blame for closure
An employee stated who the thieves are:
1. Drug users directed by fences on what to steal
2. Packs of teenagers
"Dalisay, who has worked at the Macy's in Union Square for 20 years after moving to San Francisco from the Philippines in 1996, blamed Mayor London Breed and Prop. 47, which made shoplifting less than $950 worth of property a misdemeanor, as the source of the store's shoplifting woes. He called on the city to more aggressively prosecute shoplifters."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/02/27/macys-union-square-closure-rampant-shoplifting/
Same with the oppressed people that engage in regular bipping: What are they supposed to do, parlay their experience with motor vehicles into a job driving for Amazon? Low wages and zero cachet!
And don't get me started on the unfortunate unhoused population... have you priced homes in San Francisco lately? What other options do they have? And please don't tell me they should move to an area where housing is cheaper and get a job. You don't see any tech bros doing that!
Give me a break about the homeless. We have never spent more on the problem and never gotten worse results.
Now explain why crime is much lower than it was 15. 20 and 30 years ago.
Why is the homicide rate 3x in Alabama compared to New York City?
Is it possible the drivers of crime aren't as simplistic as politicians and partisans like to pretend? I certainly don't think we can categorically rule out any impact from the factors you focus on, nor do I believe they are as impactful as many claim.
I do know that mass incarceration has a very negative impact on young men and their families which created an existential set of problems in our society.
What has been decriminalized that could be impacting the data?
