GMP said:

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ducky23 said:

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Chapman is gone can be the narrator

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I bet he does great voices.

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News from me and @dennistlin: The Padres have granted permission for the Giants to interview Bob Melvin, where he has emerged as a top candidate to replace manager Gabe Kapler.https://t.co/vQVsjKpF5J

— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) October 22, 2023

Padres are funny, Melvin would be a great hire.

KenBurnski said:

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Padres are funny, Melvin would be a great hire.

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Thinking back to when the Padres' roster would get routinely poached leaving them middling or in the cellar, a fan told me, "We're the best minor league team in baseball."

Hiring Melvin = the poaching continues?

Bowlesman80 said:

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KenBurnski said:

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Padres are funny, Melvin would be a great hire.

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Thinking back to when the Padres' roster would get routinely poached leaving them middling or in the cellar, a fan told me, "We're the best minor league team in baseball."

Hiring Melvin = the poaching continues?

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Melvin and Preller apparently have not gotten along.

A lot of Giants fans on Twitter are not excited about this idea. But I think they are lazy or dumb or both.

In 2021, with mostly the same roster, they went 79-83 with a run differential of just +21 and an expected record of 83-79. They finished nearly 30 games behind SF and L.A. This continued a trend - in 2019, they went 70-92 wqith an expected record of 70-92 (in the 60-game 2020 season, they did go 37-23, but it's hard to know how much weight to put on 60 games).

In 2022, Melvin arrived and the team went 89-73 with a +45 run differential and 86 expected wins. They made the NLCS, beating the Dodgers in the NLDS.

2023 was a weird year for them, but most of it appears to just be bad luck. They finished strong to barely get over .500 at 82-80. But they had a run differential of +104, 3rd in the NL behind ATL and L.A (ahead of 4th by a fairly significant margin). Their expected win total based on that run differential was 92-70. That's ten losses of bad luck.

The bad luck shows up in tight games. They went 2-12 in extra innings (winning their final 2 extra inning games after an unthinkable 0-12 start). That was second worst extra innings record in the league, behind only the Astros at 1-8. They also were horrible in 1-run games, at 9-23. That winning percentage (28%) was worst in the league by a lot - the next lowest being the White Sox at 19-30 (38%).

This was comfortably the 3rd best team in the NL, a year after making the NLCS. And that's a huge turnaround from what they had been with largely the same roster in 2019 and 2021. Letting Melvin go is a big mistake and will put Preller with his 5th manager in 10 years. I think it'd would be a smart hire by the Giants.

Or you could argue that in all those close games, it wasn't luck, that the one guy "in control" was the guy on the bench running the team at that moment, not the guy in the front office. And the players, for some reason, didn't respond to his motivation or moves. They all seem very supportive of him, so it was a weird result. BTW, the Padres won in September when the pressure was completely off and they were a 1% chance to make the playoffs. That run at the end was really quite explainable, actually. And despite good stats from many players by the end of the year, stats don't win games. The pieces were there, but it just didn't come together. There's been some good reporting on why/how that happened in The Athletic.

I'm a huge Melvin fan, and after some time to digest what happened this year, I think he is maybe best suited for a team without divas and high salaries. He really maximized what was available to him at Oakland. I hope he stays and doesn't go to the Giants, it would probably be a good fit. But if he does, then Preller is really going to get what is conceivably his last chance to hire a manager, as he's history if they don't win a pennant soon.

sandiegobears said:

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Or you could argue that in all those close games, it wasn't luck, that the one guy "in control" was the guy on the bench running the team at that moment, not the guy in the front office. And the players, for some reason, didn't respond to his motivation or moves. They all seem very supportive of him, so it was a weird result. BTW, the Padres won in September when the pressure was completely off and they were a 1% chance to make the playoffs. That run at the end was really quite explainable, actually. And despite good stats from many players by the end of the year, stats don't win games. The pieces were there, but it just didn't come together. There's been some good reporting on why/how that happened in The Athletic.

I'm a huge Melvin fan, and after some time to digest what happened this year, I think he is maybe best suited for a team without divas and high salaries. He really maximized what was available to him at Oakland. I hope he stays and doesn't go to the Giants, it would probably be a good fit. But if he does, then Preller is really going to get what is conceivably his last chance to hire a manager, as he's history if they don't win a pennant soon.

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You could argue it. But extra inning and 1-run game records are pretty famously luck. There is no carry-over year-to-year.

In 2021, with the same core and Melvin, the Padres went 12-5 in extra innings (2nd best in MLB). They went 30-17 in 1-run games (best in MLB). From best to worst!

Did he forget how to coach? Do major league players need "motivation" to win close games? Or was it random clustering?

The thing you said that I agree with is that it's a weird result. But when you combine the two years, the Padres extra inning record was 14-17. Their record in 1-run games was 39-40.

Pretty close to .500, which of course is league average. Random clustering makes a lot more sense to me then a coach forgetting how to coach only in tight games. Or a team with the 3rd best run differential in the NL losing motivation only in close games.

Bump

Breaking: Bob Melvin will leave the San Diego Padres to become the manager of the San Francisco Giants, sources have confirmed to ESPN.

More: https://t.co/5REoKbGb52 pic.twitter.com/j91U7iS0Kx

— ESPN (@espn) October 24, 2023

bearister said:

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BREAKING: Shohei Ohtani announces he’ll sign with the Dodgers on a reported 10-year, $700 million contracthttps://t.co/Md5EvIbb5O

— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) December 9, 2023

For Giants fans, OUCH!

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Nah. Ohtani is a great player. But if the Giants have an extra $70 million a year to spend on player salaries, they would be much better off using that money to address multiple needs.

I heard the A's offered Ohtani $1 per year for 700 million years.

— Casey Pratt (@CaseyPrattABC7) December 9, 2023

I figured the Dodgers would just outspend everyone for Ohtani. Not surprising.

$700 Million: What the Dodgers just agreed to pay Shohei Ohtani.

$667 Million: Total Oakland A's Payroll, Last 10 Seasons

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) December 9, 2023

*….and the Dodgers will get more for their $700M

oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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I figured the Dodgers would just outspend everyone for Ohtani. Not surprising.

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The Mets payroll was 130 million dollars higher in 2023 than the Dodgers who had the 5th highest. Generally, Giants fans like everyone to believe they hardly spend while the Dodgers buy players, but the reality is both teams usually have competitive payrolls with the Dodgers on the higher end.

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They just paid him $700 million dude.

DeSclafani > Ohtani

sycasey said:

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oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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I figured the Dodgers would just outspend everyone for Ohtani. Not surprising.

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The Mets payroll was 130 million dollars higher in 2023 than the Dodgers who had the 5th highest. Generally, Giants fans like everyone to believe they hardly spend while the Dodgers buy players, but the reality is both teams usually have competitive payrolls with the Dodgers on the higher end.

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They just paid him $700 million dude.

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Yup. A lot of it is deferred for a true value of $450 million. 4D chess.

Ohtani has a ton of upside potential on Dodger revenue

BearSD said:

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bearister said:

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BREAKING: Shohei Ohtani announces he’ll sign with the Dodgers on a reported 10-year, $700 million contracthttps://t.co/Md5EvIbb5O

— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) December 9, 2023

For Giants fans, OUCH!

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Nah. Ohtani is a great player. But if the Giants have an extra $70 million a year to spend on player salaries, they would be much better off using that money to address multiple needs.

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Didn't otani have elbow surgery?
Nobody wants the guy to suffer a career injury, he's historically great.

I'm just saying.

At around 11:30 a.m., during a rally at City Hall's Spring Street steps featuring current and past #Dodgers personalities, Shohei Ohtani will receive the Key to The City from mayor Karen Bass. Tens of thousands are expected to crowd @GrandPark_LA to witness this historic event.

— Militant Angeleno (@militantangleno) December 10, 2023

"The two-way sensation will make $432,099 per game and $133 per minute over the life of his contract.

The top three hitters in the Dodgers' lineup now account for $1.2 billion in guaranteed money, with Ohtani joining Mookie Betts ($365M) and Freddie Freeman ($162M)." Yahoo Sports AM

It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

Column: Shohei Ohtani is just the latest young person to leave O.C. for L.A. Surprise, surprise. https://t.co/7uan6RTfwl

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) December 11, 2023

oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they could've manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they couldn't manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

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Not sure about this contractual stuff, but Ohetani not at risk here...If he defers most all of the deal and the Dodgers go downhill, or global warming hits, or XYZ.....My point, he leaves a lot on the table while enjoying $2M per year. Seems like he should insist on more down up front for more assurance.

OdontoBear66 said:

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ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they couldn't manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

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Not sure about this contractual stuff, but Ohetani not at risk here...If he defers most all of the deal and the Dodgers go downhill, or global warming hits, or XYZ.....My point, he leaves a lot on the table while enjoying $2M per year. Seems like he should insist on more down up front for more assurance.

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I'm no tax attorney, but I'm sure ohtani is trying to avoid both state and maybe federal taxes? I don't know. A tax attorney can tell us what would happen if he moved back to Japan once the payments started kicking in.

Regardless, as you've stated, ohtani is still taking on a ton of risk.

Two questions:

1. I'm a moron. Will $68 million in 2043 be more valuable or less valuable than in 2023?

I mean, how does this work, inflation-wise?

Like, for instance, $68 million in 2002 is equal to $114 million in 2022.







2. I watched a lot of Shohei's homers. Probably all of them. And I notice that when he hits homers at Angels stadium, there are a lot of empty seats. Why is that? Yes, I know the team sucks. But wouldn't he be a big draw in such a populated area?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp

ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they could've manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

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--It's not worse than KD joining the Warriors, because one all-time great NBA player has more impact on his team's possibility for winning championships than one all-time great MLB player has on his team's possibility for winning championships.

--Kind of surprising that MLB left that salary cap/deferral loophole wide open for the Dodgers to drive through. IIRC, NBA and NFL have rules that permit limited salary deferrals and wouldn't permit deferring anything like 90 percent or more.

--Seems to me that Ohtani could sell off the rights to the deferred salary to a third party and get a lump sum today, but presumably he'd take a big tax hit for that? Who knows. He surely has lawyers and accountants who can figure that out.

BearSD said:

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ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they could've manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

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--It's not worse than KD joining the Warriors, because one all-time great NBA player has more impact on his team's possibility for winning championships than one all-time great MLB player has on his team's possibility for winning championships.

--Kind of surprising that MLB left that salary cap/deferral loophole wide open for the Dodgers to drive through. IIRC, NBA and NFL have rules that permit limited salary deferrals and wouldn't permit deferring anything like 90 percent or more.

--Seems to me that Ohtani could sell off the rights to the deferred salary to a third party and get a lump sum today, but presumably he'd take a big tax hit for that? Who knows. He surely has lawyers and accountants who can figure that out.

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Maybe Shohei should call JG Wentworth...

HighlandDutch said:

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BearSD said:

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ducky23 said:

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oski003 said:

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It is only 2 million per year. Again, 4D chess.

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4D chess my A$$. This took absolutely zero skill or creativity from the dodgers. It just takes someone like ohtani to be willing to take such a stupid deal. Every team would defer that type of money if they could.

This is way way worse than KD coming to the warriors. At least in that situation, it only works cause the warriors drafted their big 3 (you wouldn't be able to buy 4 superstars under the nba salary cap).
And even then, the warriors had to surround that team with vet mins.

What the dodgers are doing is just ridiculous. Sure it'll work in the short term, but they're basically guaranteeing that there's going to be a new CBA that's going to destroy all of their current advantages.

If the dodgers were smart, they could've manipulated a weak "salary cap" forever. But now that they've destroyed it, a harder salary cap is all but guaranteed.

---

--It's not worse than KD joining the Warriors, because one all-time great NBA player has more impact on his team's possibility for winning championships than one all-time great MLB player has on his team's possibility for winning championships.

--Kind of surprising that MLB left that salary cap/deferral loophole wide open for the Dodgers to drive through. IIRC, NBA and NFL have rules that permit limited salary deferrals and wouldn't permit deferring anything like 90 percent or more.

--Seems to me that Ohtani could sell off the rights to the deferred salary to a third party and get a lump sum today, but presumably he'd take a big tax hit for that? Who knows. He surely has lawyers and accountants who can figure that out.

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Maybe Shohei should call JG Wentworth...

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I can hook him up with the phone number. I have it memorized.

sycasey said:

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oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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I figured the Dodgers would just outspend everyone for Ohtani. Not surprising.

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The Mets payroll was 130 million dollars higher in 2023 than the Dodgers who had the 5th highest. Generally, Giants fans like everyone to believe they hardly spend while the Dodgers buy players, but the reality is both teams usually have competitive payrolls with the Dodgers on the higher end.

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They just paid him $700 million dude.

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Giants made an equivalent offer but Ohtani said no.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39100773/giants-700m-offer-ohtani-identical-dodgers

"It's the most important signing in Dodgers history." @BenVerlander breaks down the impact that the Shohei Ohtani-Dodgers deal will have on this season and beyond. pic.twitter.com/TJlbCOKCil

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) December 19, 2023

okaydo said:

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"It's the most important signing in Dodgers history." @BenVerlander breaks down the impact that the Shohei Ohtani-Dodgers deal will have on this season and beyond. pic.twitter.com/TJlbCOKCil

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) December 19, 2023

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Ummmm Jackie Robinson