dajo9;842778620 said:
These are interesting times in the capital markets. Over the past month in my 401k / IRA I have reduced my equity exposure from 80% to 20%, making the last big move today. Here are the main reasons why:
- Market sentiment is incredibly bullish
- Margin (borrowing to buy stocks) is around the highest levels ever
- Shorts on Treasuries are at incredibly high levels
- Valuations are at higher levels than any period except the dot-com bubble
- The rising dollar will hurt US exporters
- The rising dollar is wreaking havoc in some foreign countries, particularly China
- The US consumer will be hurt by the rise in interest rates (car purchases, home purchases, credit card purchases)
- Last but most importantly, the Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity
I'm pretty confident in the move but I'm less confident in the timing. The market could continue to rise and my move into bonds could continue to hurt me (particularly with China selling US Treasuries in order to try to stop the decrease of the yuan) for many months. But I think over the next 6 months the market will have a sharp reversal and move back into safe bonds. Now I am positioned to profit off that move - if or when it happens.
One last note - my portfolio change in my taxable, non-retirement account is less dramatic because I don't want to trigger capital gains. I'm about 50/50 there.
Wags;842856134 said:
Per Investor's Intelligence . . . Bullish Investment Advisor Sentiment is now over 60% with the number of Bears at only 16.5%
Things are getting pretty FROTHY!
:p
BearGoggles;842856255 said:
Since Dajo9's original post, the Dow is up from 19,852.24 (Dec 15 2016 close) to 21,711.01 - up 9.3%. Glad I didn't sell when he did.
Strykur;842856262 said:
Also rates were not changed and earnings are good for domestic equities, so this will continue at least through the end of Q3.
BearGoggles;842856255 said:
Since Dajo9's original post, the Dow is up from 19,852.24 (Dec 15 2016 close) to 21,711.01 - up 9.3%. Glad I didn't sell when he did.
burritos;842856025 said:
A latin american or emerging market fund?
I have a theory, bet where there is a lot of undeveloped land that theoretically will be warming and become more habitable. That's Russia and Canada. After you cross off Russia, there's Canada. Because of the oil slump, all of Canada is 20% off. Their population is less than California. Their total land size is greater than the US. Lot's of growth to be had. Honestly, if Apple wanted to use it's cash pile and buy large swaths of that country, it'd be a better move than buying Beats headphones.
burritos;842856025 said:
A latin american or emerging market fund?
I have a theory, bet where there is a lot of undeveloped land that theoretically will be warming and become more habitable. That's Russia and Canada. After you cross off Russia, there's Canada. Because of the oil slump, all of Canada is 20% off. Their population is less than California. Their total land size is greater than the US. Lot's of growth to be had. Honestly, if Apple wanted to use it's cash pile and buy large swaths of that country, it'd be a better move than buying Beats headphones.
burritos;842856273 said:
When rates go up does that generally strengthen or weaken the dollar? If it weakens it, then doesn't that mean more American sales abroad? Unless we get the promised trump trade war.
OdontoBear66;842856301 said:
But do remember when you compare to the Dow or the S&P you must assume full investment. I can't imagine anyone fully (100%) in equities since Dec.15, 2016, unless they are under 30 years of age.
Now to beat that 9.3% if you are say 60% in equities is nice work. Maybe 60% of a combo of BA, CTWS, HON, CNI, TROW, SYK, JNJ, AMGN, ITW, GD, LMT----might work.
SadbutTrue999;842856419 said:
examples:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/06/23/venezuelan-bonds-are-fabulous-investment-you-don-mind-starvation/qplQj6i5Rq2JXSXJgrGWHO/story.html
https://fronteranews.com/news/latam/investors-plow-money-into-venezuelan-bond-funds-despite-economic-chaos/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-a-46-return-bond-investors-go-to-venezuelaif-they-dare-1477220404
(most recent, bonds got a little cheaper because regime change became more likely) http://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-venezuela-bonds-as-regime-change-sanctions-risk-rises-1500939175
BearGoggles;842856255 said:
Since Dajo9's original post, the Dow is up from 19,852.24 (Dec 15 2016 close) to 21,711.01 - up 9.3%. Glad I didn't sell when he did.
Strykur;842856426 said:
Increased rates means costs to borrow go up and there less (capital) spending, flight to fixed income and out of equities, and more cash hoarding, so a tighter money supply means less available dollars = stronger dollar. On the flipside, low rates means cheap borrowing and lots of cash flying around = weaker dollar. But this minutiae only really matters if you are looking to invest abroad significantly, because repatriating that money can get you killed when exchanging it back. If I go international, it's growth stocks only in stable currencies.
I am 95% equities and year-to-date am up 9.26%.
MT211;842858420 said:
Appreciate this thread, all! Just read through all 25 pages and decided not to start a new thread because many of you sound like you're in the industry and know what the hell your talking about. I'm curious if anybody has any strong thoughts one way or another regarding the medical marijuana industry, especially the CBD (both research/development & distribution companies), as a long-term investment solution. Also, any thoughts on cannabis grow ops/grow-site real estate companies (both Canadian and US-traded) I know viable short-term returns are not realistic, but I feel this market will inevitably boom and its probably the last time in our lifetimes that we experience the development of a huge industry from the beginning like tech in the 80's. Would really appreciate hearing any insights and industry expertise from you guys.
MT211;842858420 said:
Appreciate this thread, all! Just read through all 25 pages and decided not to start a new thread because many of you sound like you're in the industry and know what the hell your talking about. I'm curious if anybody has any strong thoughts one way or another regarding the medical marijuana industry, especially the CBD (both research/development & distribution companies), as a long-term investment solution. Also, any thoughts on cannabis grow ops/grow-site real estate companies (both Canadian and US-traded) I know viable short-term returns are not realistic, but I feel this market will inevitably boom and its probably the last time in our lifetimes that we experience the development of a huge industry from the beginning like tech in the 80's. Would really appreciate hearing any insights and industry expertise from you guys.
82gradDLSdad;842858506 said:
Nobody knows. Put your money in globally diversified index funds.
burritos;842858562 said:
Personal biases aside, if you had to submit an opinion on whether the MJ industry as a sector was going to make money year 1,5,10,20 what would it be. I think 10k invested for a newborn might pay for a semester college when it was time. Maybe more.
GB54;842858568 said:
The big money
prospeCt;842858592 said:
raw hempmilk & coconut water green tea chai Kombucha, "mark it to market", & the great Chi Pants revival. Bank, move to Iceland
82gradDLSdad;842858577 said:
How many of these $10k bets are you willing to make? In Snap? In Twitter? In GoPro? My $10k bet would be that if you only pick one of these 'next big things' you'll lose. But I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
dajo9;842853524 said:
I don't think betting on chaos in a Trump Presidency is the same as betting on a random event
burritos;842860196 said:
It's happening. Well at least in the twitterverse. I'd be surprised if any generals actually obeyed any orders by dementia in chief.
Strykur;842860255 said:
They have to obey his every order, or resign. Not happening.
MT211;842858420 said:
Appreciate this thread, all! Just read through all 25 pages and decided not to start a new thread because many of you sound like you're in the industry and know what the hell your talking about. I'm curious if anybody has any strong thoughts one way or another regarding the medical marijuana industry, especially the CBD (both research/development & distribution companies), as a long-term investment solution. Also, any thoughts on cannabis grow ops/grow-site real estate companies (both Canadian and US-traded) I know viable short-term returns are not realistic, but I feel this market will inevitably boom and its probably the last time in our lifetimes that we experience the development of a huge industry from the beginning like tech in the 80's. Would really appreciate hearing any insights and industry expertise from you guys.
Strykur;842856262 said:
Also rates were not changed and earnings are good for domestic equities, so this will continue at least through the end of Q3.
Wags;842860469 said:
With Trump having already started to throw Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell under the bus, it's not a guarantee that Congress will automatically raise the ceiling.
Shades of the Govt. Shutdown in 2013 loom.
Its not a bad time to raise some cash.
Strykur;842860472 said:
Why would the Trump-McConnell feud kill a debt ceiling increase? Trump and the GOP have way too much to lose otherwise. McConnell does deserve to get slammed after the healthcare debacle.
Wags;842860490 said:
History has a way of repeating itself.
Can you say Tea Party? Can you say House Freedom Caucus?
Stay tuned.
http://www.businessinsider.com/debt-ceiling-trump-mint-coin-2017-5
FWIW, Trump has shown a clear disdain (and lack of interest) for getting involved with the democratic process and Congress.
He sees himself as a great "dealmaker"... but the fact of the matter is that Congress negotiates deals based on ideology, and not PRICE.
His idea of "governing" is tweeting. That's not how you get your Agenda thru Congress, nor with your Senate Majority Leader.
PS. Not to divert the thread off-topic, but it is interesting to note that one of the few things that Trump has accomplished in 7 months is get Neil Gorsuch appointed to the Supreme Court. That doesn't happen without Mitch McConnell.
burritos;842860520 said:
How about paying down personal or investment mortgage debt? (3.25-5.25% return tax free isn't horrible is it?). Is this ever a viable long term investment strategy(as part of your basket of investments), or is just fear mitigation?
OdontoBear66;842860512 said:
To believe this is exactly what your opposition hopes for. He has done nothing. Think regulation reductions, lack of immigration stasis (matter of fact reversal without any wall), stand up to Oddjobs in NoKo, Syria, Iran with more than a pink line that fades, some judicial appointments, pipeline implementation. That's not all, but some. And all that with being a jerk.
