calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

Yes, I'm glad I'm not in a precarious financial situation or a crypto bro (lol).

I agree there are challenges upgrading in a down market but I prefer those challenges to the alternative. Down market means I pay fewer cap gains on the sale of my existing home and I establish a lower baseline for property taxes on the upgraded home. I'm also more likely to be able to convince the seller of my new home to accept a contingency on sale of my existing home or some other accommodation to allow me time to sell. Alternatively, I've spoken to a few banks that are able to provide some float while the old home is in the market. And finally, I'm not worried about high mortgage prices because I plan to do a 3 or 5 year ARM and refi once the Fed takes rates back down to zero, which I think is 1.5-3 years away.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

---

You and Unit2 make a lot of sense. I haven't had a mortgage for awhile and missed out on the low interest rates last decade. I bought few properties all cash to hold and rent out during the 2008 real estate crash and may buy starter homes for the kids under a living trust when they start thinking about marriage but otherwise just an interested observer of this real estate market. No plans to sell anything but just pass everything down or donate to charity. It has been a tough time for first time home buyers without parental help.

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah, it would definitely be scary.
A 16.3x multiple on $215 would get you 3500.

But as horrible as the "sentiment" is, the weekly fund flows are still coming into the market.
It's like FOMO is still alive and well. Today, was a prime example of that even though the FED has another 100 basis points to go.

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

---

You and Unit2 make a lot of sense. I haven't had a mortgage for awhile and missed out on the low interest rates last decade. I bought few properties all cash to hold and rent out during the 2008 real estate crash and may buy starter homes for the kids under a living trust when they start thinking about marriage but otherwise just an interested observer of this real estate market. No plans to sell anything but just pass everything down or donate to charity. It has been a tough time for first time home buyers without parental help.

---

I merely thought it was an interesting twist, obviously not for everyone because cash back up is important to weather a few years, but maybe a good way to take advantage of the change in trend in real estate. At least you get rid of the frustration of making a solid offer only to be whupped by a plus/plus one. Cut out the competition and wait to refi.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

---

You and Unit2 make a lot of sense. I haven't had a mortgage for awhile and missed out on the low interest rates last decade. I bought few properties all cash to hold and rent out during the 2008 real estate crash and may buy starter homes for the kids under a living trust when they start thinking about marriage but otherwise just an interested observer of this real estate market. No plans to sell anything but just pass everything down or donate to charity. It has been a tough time for first time home buyers without parental help.

---

I merely thought it was an interesting twist, obviously not for everyone because cash back up is important to weather a few years, but maybe a good way to take advantage of the change in trend in real estate. At least you get rid of the frustration of making a solid offer only to be whupped by a plus/plus one. Cut out the competition and wait to refi.

---

Comforting knowing I won't move again. We bought our dream house near the beach awhile ago. Older folks like me had enough equity built up from prior home and liquid assets to buy their houses all cash. Young folks have had a much tougher time in recent years.

calbear93 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

---

You and Unit2 make a lot of sense. I haven't had a mortgage for awhile and missed out on the low interest rates last decade. I bought few properties all cash to hold and rent out during the 2008 real estate crash and may buy starter homes for the kids under a living trust when they start thinking about marriage but otherwise just an interested observer of this real estate market. No plans to sell anything but just pass everything down or donate to charity. It has been a tough time for first time home buyers without parental help.

---

I merely thought it was an interesting twist, obviously not for everyone because cash back up is important to weather a few years, but maybe a good way to take advantage of the change in trend in real estate. At least you get rid of the frustration of making a solid offer only to be whupped by a plus/plus one. Cut out the competition and wait to refi.

---

Comforting knowing I won't move again. We bought our dream house near the beach awhile ago. Older folks like me had enough equity built up from prior home and liquid assets to buy their houses all cash. Young folks have had a much tougher time in recent years.

---

Nice work 93....You must be sleeping very well with the current market gyrations and general thrust down. With equity in real estate no matter how badly equities dip (assuming you have investments) you can look at your large home equity (assumed with "near beach") as a large Emergency Fund. You and yours should never be out on the streets.

OdontoBear66 said:

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calbear93 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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calbear93 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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As I said about two weeks ago, I'm looking for an earnings recession as profit margins get squeezed due to companies no longer being able to pass on higher costs and the consumer pulling back. I think that the current consensus for S&P operating earnings at $228 is still a joke. That number has actually come down since the week ending July 8th at $237.53


We finished 2021 at $205.69
In my opinion, we might not even make $215.

I expect this current rally of 6 weeks to run out of gas anywhere between 4053 and 4139.
I think it's gonna wind up being a terrific entry for shorts heading into a mid-September cycle low.

I think 3500 is in the cards.
Perhaps even as low as 3200.

---

3200 would be scary. That would be almost another 15% from when S&P 500 first hit bear market territory and before it recovered some of the losses. Hopefully we won't get there but always possible.

---

Yeah I think the biggest question for me is whether there is enough discretionary money to exit the market to impact that big a change. There is still a lot of capital (401(k)s, institutional money, etc.) that will remain long in the market. With the increase in reliance on passive index funds, auto-enrollment, etc. there is a lot more money not being actively managed that will buffer the drawdowns.

Sorta similar to housing prices in California. I think we see a lot fewer transactions (already happening) and a pullback from highs (already happening) but I don't see a return to 2019 or earlier pricing levels. I'm not saying that out of wishful thinking, I would love the opportunity to level up to a nicer home, but unfortunately for me I don't think there will be meaningful opportunities to do so. Unless an area suffers significant foreclosures (unlikely given strength of family's personal finances the last few years combined with easy availability of attractive long-term financing) there won't be enough downward pressure because people will just stay put.

I've heard of other areas where the price changes have been more dramatic. A friend was telling me that vacation homes in an area in Idaho where his friend is trying to sell a home have dropped quickly. Their house was fairly valued at $1.1M this spring and they are selling now for $800k (along with a lot of other people). I've been in Tahoe a bunch this summer and have seen a lot of small price adjustments and a ton of properties sitting on the market, but haven't seen any deals getting done at historically attractive prices. We're still seeing transactions occur at late 2021 or early 2022 prices.

---

Agree with this. There is really no safe place to rotate.

Unless you are a first time buyer, not that easy to upgrade in a down market. Most likely you would want to use equity from your home for the upgrade. Places that had the highest spikes during remote work will be impacted the most as people who were moving there for cheaper but bigger houses will get a sticker shock as home prices and mortgage rates hikes reduce the value of places like Idaho. Having said that, I suspect places like SF, Seattle etc will also continue to be impacted as mortgage rates make those places even more expensive. Rent will go up as people give up buying a home, although I don't expect to raise rent much any time soon for my tenants.

In these uncertain times, still just enjoying life and grateful for the blessings.

---

One thing about first time buyers if they have the income to support an excessive (to their net income) mortgage for a few years is that the 5.5% 30 year fixed have priced out so many people and in doing so either reduced prices or at least driven those who had been bidding up properties out for the time being. So, with net income support or a great emergency fund, it might be a good time for a first timer to buy in the midst of much less competition, maybe even getting a bargain, and then holding out for a couple of years and refi when rates come down. They always seem to.

---

You and Unit2 make a lot of sense. I haven't had a mortgage for awhile and missed out on the low interest rates last decade. I bought few properties all cash to hold and rent out during the 2008 real estate crash and may buy starter homes for the kids under a living trust when they start thinking about marriage but otherwise just an interested observer of this real estate market. No plans to sell anything but just pass everything down or donate to charity. It has been a tough time for first time home buyers without parental help.

---

I merely thought it was an interesting twist, obviously not for everyone because cash back up is important to weather a few years, but maybe a good way to take advantage of the change in trend in real estate. At least you get rid of the frustration of making a solid offer only to be whupped by a plus/plus one. Cut out the competition and wait to refi.

---

Comforting knowing I won't move again. We bought our dream house near the beach awhile ago. Older folks like me had enough equity built up from prior home and liquid assets to buy their houses all cash. Young folks have had a much tougher time in recent years.

---

Nice work 93....You must be sleeping very well with the current market gyrations and general thrust down. With equity in real estate no matter how badly equities dip (assuming you have investments) you can look at your large home equity (assumed with "near beach") as a large Emergency Fund. You and yours should never be out on the streets.

---

Yeah, I have been blessed. Spent time as partner in a large law firm, followed by couple of public GC roles and then at a hedge fund started by a friend. Now retired with kids in college and mostly traveling, volunteering, and exercising at the MMA studio. I started serving on a board and love it. Can imagine myself eventually being a professional director although it is a lot of work.

I guess Paul Pelosi didnt get the "word" about the Senate having approved the "CHIPS and SCIENCE ACT"
A $54 Billion bill to bolster U.S. chip manufacturing.

PELOSI SOLD 25,000 shares of NVDIA at a loss on July 26 at $165.05

The stock was as high as $181.40 today and looks to have made an inverted head and shoulders bottom.

The vote was 243 to 187

I wonder how BF will spin this.

Nancy Pelosi's Husband Sold NVIDIA Stock Ahead of 'CHIPS' Bill Vote (businessinsider.com)

House OKs measure subsidizing semiconductor chip production, sending bill to Biden - CBS News

DiabloWags said:

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I wonder how BF will spin this.

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I posted the NVDA sale on the previous page.

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

---

Sell OTM Puts on SPY (VOO for me) and make some money while possibly being able to buy the S&P 500 at a lower value a month out. It almost sounds like I know what I'm doing, right?

82gradDLSdad said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

---

Sell OTM Puts on SPY (VOO for me) and make some money while possibly being able to buy the S&P 500 at a lower value a month out. It almost sounds like I know what I'm doing, right?

---

Are you buying or selling put options? Trying to understand if you are creating a collar to hedge against the downside risk.

calbear93 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

---

Sell OTM Puts on SPY (VOO for me) and make some money while possibly being able to buy the S&P 500 at a lower value a month out. It almost sounds like I know what I'm doing, right?

---

Are you buying or selling put options? Trying to understand if you are creating a collar to hedge against the downside risk.

---

Selling. I only buy options that I have sold to close them out. No collars or strangles or iron condors or butterflies, etc. Sell way out of money calls and puts to make extra money. Only sell puts on ETFs I want to buy and even then I'll roll them if the price of the underlying gets away from me. Calls I'll usually roll instead of having the underlying gets called away.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

---

Sell OTM Puts on SPY (VOO for me) and make some money while possibly being able to buy the S&P 500 at a lower value a month out. It almost sounds like I know what I'm doing, right?

---

Are you buying or selling put options? Trying to understand if you are creating a collar to hedge against the downside risk.

---

Selling. I only buy options that I have sold to close them out. No collars or strangles or iron condors or butterflies, etc. Sell way out of money calls and puts to make extra money. Only sell puts on ETFs I want to buy and even then I'll roll them if the price of the underlying gets away from me. Calls I'll usually roll instead of having the underlying gets called away.

---

So your bet is that the ETF price will not fall below the strike price. Pretty risky for an individual trader but I guess you have a method.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Rough day today. Any particular negative catalyst?

---

I suspect end of typical bear market rally.

Inflation and corresponding multiple interest rate increase still looms large. Assumption that economic growth will slow even further. While low wage jobs will continue to be in short supply, white-collar jobs will most likely continue to take a hit. Not a lot to be excited about in the near future for a sustained rally. All the gloom and doom vs. rainbows and butterflies are all political spin. Those who follow the market closely know we still have a while to go, and the full impact of QT has not really been reflected either. I think we will end the bear market in 2023 but we are not there yet. This is a needed refresh and cycle in the markets. If you have 10 years to hold, this is just a blip. If you need to liquidate in the near term, this is a tough time to be in equities.

JMHO.

---

Pretty good call. After peaking at a lofty 4700+ we dropped to 3670+ and most predicted a bear bounce back up to 4300-4400. Twas a pretty spot on call. Now another leg down as it seems a majority predicted. Escalator up, elevator down. So it is time to be patient, let it play out and look for value with dry powder down the road a bit. No one has a crystal ball on the future, but following earnings season, it is hard to find a ton of great news quite yet.

---

Sell OTM Puts on SPY (VOO for me) and make some money while possibly being able to buy the S&P 500 at a lower value a month out. It almost sounds like I know what I'm doing, right?

---

Are you buying or selling put options? Trying to understand if you are creating a collar to hedge against the downside risk.

---

Selling. I only buy options that I have sold to close them out. No collars or strangles or iron condors or butterflies, etc. Sell way out of money calls and puts to make extra money. Only sell puts on ETFs I want to buy and even then I'll roll them if the price of the underlying gets away from me. Calls I'll usually roll instead of having the underlying gets called away.

---

So -- you're "selling" first? Essentially shorting the options??

I did really well before the 2008 crash, buying Puts on Citigroup (they were insolvent!) and a couple mortgage insurers.

But these days, there's so much $$ in the options markets that the option prices are incredibly high for the weeks & months before expiration. But they end up at the same point at expiration. So I was thinking about taking advantage of this by selling both Calls & Puts, and taking advantage of the steeper decrease in option price. Is this what you're doing?

Be careful.

Victor Niederhoffer blew up his hedge fund in 1997 selling OTM S&P Puts to the tune of $125 million.

When his clearing firm took him "out" of his trade on a Monday in late October 1997, my buddy Mike Goodwin (who was then the #2 equity derivatives trader at NatWest in Greenwich, CT and who had a terrific options trading background from his days at Susquehanna), sold thousands of these puts given the insane vol they were trading at and made $47 million for the desk that week. He knew that the premiums would collapse should the market merely stabilize and tread water. And of course, he had the banks capital to hedge if need be.

As luck would have it, after the 8% drop that crushed Niederhoffer's naked put position, the market rallied 300 points on Tuesday and Goodwin made out like a bandit. It was his best trade ever compared to his days at Morgan Stanley by a factor of 6x.

It was the classic "vulture" trade.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/11/17/markets-crash-destroys-trader/06ad8b48-1745-4b99-a34e-0fb19a7c3fe5/

https://steadyoptions.com/articles/how-victor-niederhoffer-blew-up-twice-r124/

https://www.businessinsider.com/victor-niederhoffer-thinks-he-caused-the-crash-of-1997-2010-6

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

Russians shutting down Nord Stream helped turn a +50 point rally into a - 42 point close on Friday.

Thursday's bounce off of 3900 didnt last long.

DiabloWags said:

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Russians shutting down Nord Stream helped turn a +50 point rally into a - 42 point close on Friday.

Thursday's bounce off of 3900 didnt last long.

---

Yah, the market went down right when I tried to sell some calls. I have only one set of covered calls sold on my entire portfolio because the premiums have been so bad. Try again Tuesday.

82gradDLSdad said:

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I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

Powell is determined to kill the Demand Side & cause a Recession, and the rest of the U.S. financial world seems to be going right along, cheering for dropping Demand & more unemployment.

Expect markets to continue dropping thru October & into the November election.

Credit bubbles either expand, or they burst. I don't think that a "soft landing" is really possible at this point. There may be more short squeezes here & there, but all the forces are pushing the markets lower.

cbbass1 said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

Powell is determined to kill the Demand Side & cause a Recession, and the rest of the U.S. financial world seems to be going right along, cheering for dropping Demand & more unemployment.

Expect markets to continue dropping thru October & into the November election.

Credit bubbles either expand, or they burst. I don't think that a "soft landing" is really possible at this point. There may be more short squeezes here & there, but all the forces are pushing the markets lower.

---

I don't buy options other than to close them. Works for me. I'm small potatoes.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

cbbass1 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

Powell is determined to kill the Demand Side & cause a Recession, and the rest of the U.S. financial world seems to be going right along, cheering for dropping Demand & more unemployment.

Expect markets to continue dropping thru October & into the November election.

Credit bubbles either expand, or they burst. I don't think that a "soft landing" is really possible at this point. There may be more short squeezes here & there, but all the forces are pushing the markets lower.

---

I don't buy options other than to close them. Works for me. I'm small potatoes.

---

And I'm quickly learning to limit my put sales to those things I really wouldn't mind owning. Which at this stage is really just Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF VOO.

cbbass1 said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

---

Just curious.
When was the last time you executed an option trade?

DiabloWags said:

---

cbbass1 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

---

Just curious.
When was the last time you executed an option trade?

---

September 1.

DiabloWags said:

---

cbbass1 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

---

Just curious.
When was the last time you executed an option trade?

---

Oh wait, was this for cbbass1?

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

cbbass1 said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

I've only been selling options for a little over a year. My spreadsheet says I've netted about $100,000. So I'm not selling a bunch. Early on I let them go until expiration and thus have a lot of cash. This has probably turned out to be lucky as I now have a lot of money to sell S&P puts and slowly get back into the market. I now tend to roll the options out and down/up for a bit of premium if the price is too far away from the strike. I don't really know if selling these small amount of options is terribly profitable but it's interesting and gives me something to do in the mornings during retirement. Thanks for all the feedback.

---

I would be buying puts at this point -- not selling!

---

Just curious.
When was the last time you executed an option trade?

---

Oh wait, was this for cbbass1?

---

Yes.

Lots of speculation. Some say he was involved in a pump and dump scheme that recently allowed insiders to sell a failing company's stock at high prices.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/04/business/cfo-bed-bath-beyond-jumps-off-nyc-tower/index.html

Markets getting hammered on this morning's CPI numbers.
Increases in food, fuel, and medical care.

+13.5% / +15.8% / +24.3% respectively.

Four day rally over.

Aug. CPI: 8.3%

August Core CPI: +0.6%

YoY Core: +6.3% which is up from 5.9% in July

10 year at 3.42

The world according to Jeff Gundlach

Jeffrey Gundlach: The Period of Abundance Is Over (themarket.ch)

Shelter costs, shelter costs, shelter costs. They make up 1/3 of CPI. I talked about them in this post a month ago. They were up 0.7% in August (the highest since 1991) and 6.3% year-over-year (compared to 5.7% last month). Shelter costs will continue to be a problem for some time.
https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/108015/replies/2043998

Landlords with leases are catching up to spot rates. Before the end of the year I will raise one rental 7% and one rental 5%. Both will still be below the spot market rate, which will make further sizeable increases likely next year.

Higher interest rates from the Fed only make it harder to build more housing and alleviate the supply shortage.