OsoDorado said:

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DiabloWags said:

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OsoDorado said:

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I'm going to defer to you with respect to fundamentals, but how much do technicals (i.e., momentum and trend) matter in your thinking, and how do you read the technicals now?

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There have been some terrific shorting opportunities.

Especially when JPM's quant department got super bullish in mid-August anticipating the SPX breaking back above the 200 day moving average and attracting all kinds of CTA trend following "momo" money. Talk about a contrary signal! That move in August just above 4300 turned out to be the Top. - - - And now 4100 is clear resistance with yet another Bear Market rally ending.

My position has been that market participants have been in "fantasy" land thinking that the S&P can rally from 17.5x earnings. Especially given that margins are about to decline. They've been piling into "defensive" names in the Dow, which has allowed that index to hold up the best.

There's a big "gap" in the SPX chart down at 3825 that needs to get filled (seen in yellow)
That's where I thought we'd be heading after the market failed (again) at 4100.

All "gaps" eventually get filled/closed.

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It's interesting what you say about the momentum and trend, especially because practically all of your market comments are related to the fundamentals. Please keep posting your insights on the technicals too!

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Thanks.

I spent 10 years as a commodity floor trader in #4 WTC.
So 99% of my trading was based off of "technicals" aside from my Federal Reserve "Tea Leaf" Reading.

On the trading floor, your time horizon is extremely short.
The long term to me was 2 hours. The short-term was 2 minutes; not even.
Clearly, fundamentals arent involved when it comes to such a time-frame.

Moreover, there is so much fundamental "data" that gets thrown at an investor/trader these days that it can literally be overwhelming and you wind up "freezing". That's why "technicals" can provide a lot of value. It's part of my KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) methodology.

However, it does take a lot of years and market history under one's belt to be able to read a chart correctly. For some that I have mentored, they've never really been able to figure it out. It's like trying to read a "foreign" language for them. - - - Clearly, there is an awful lot of "trial and error" that one has to experience in order to come up with the right "style" of investing or trading that suits them. We all have our strengths and weaknesses. For example, I have great difficulty trying to buy strength. It's one of the hardest things for me to do, even though I know a stock (or the market) is going higher.

I use Fundamentals largely for breaking down the growth prospects for a Company and/or the sector they're in.

I use Technicals for short to intermediate Trading..... entry and exit levels.

That means using various indicators like moving averages, rate of change osciilators, etc.
But mainly looking at what the trend is given that the "trend is your friend".
That's really where it all starts. Identify that key concept and you've won at least half the battle.
There's nothing worse than fighting the trend.

I also use a lot of fibonacci retracements and try to identify potential "measured" moves.
They seem to be a constant in my tool box.

I've tried to keep this thread on the stock market alive, but it just doesnt seem like there are many who are involved in the markets. So please forgive me if I'm not posting here that much anymore.

Appreciate your amplification.

To keep on the same theme, let me zoom in on the distinction I make between "momentum" and "trend": Both to me are measures of rate of change, with the only difference being "momentum" is a faster measure and "trend" is slower.

My main technical strategy focuses on trying to identify (faster) "momentum" changes that can lead to more sustainable "trend" changes.

"Since 1950, the SPX has averaged a maximum decline of 18% after the Fed's last rate hike of the cycle."

Barron's
Dec. 19th

Market coming back after being down most of the morning and after the Fed's 1/4 point increase in Fed Funds announced at 2PM

SPX now at 4130 and nearly 100 points off the low of the day as of 3:10 PM EST

Was trading 4040 at 2:30 PM

10 year yield: 3.3970 and down 13 basis points.

Powell had repeated opportunities to sound "hawkish" but chose not to.
Very telling.

DiabloWags said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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Peloton looks shady af
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/peloton-insiders-sold-nearly-500-million-stock-big-drop-rcna12741

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Why?
Because the CEO sold 16% of his shares after the 6 month lock-up period ended after the IPO in April of 2020?
Get real.

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"One of the most well-accepted facts from decades of research on insider trading is that corporate insiders buy near bottoms and sell near peaks," said Daniel Taylor, an associate professor at the Wharton School.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Didn't see this coming.

pic.twitter.com/KWeUZj7ALk

— Jack Myers (@_Jersey_Jack) December 31, 2022

S&P 500 closed 2022 at 3,839 https://t.co/iQFYDfBPYJ

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) December 31, 2022

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What's funny about that top chart is if you strip away commodities and currencies, the #2 investment for the year was the 2 year Treasury.

Serious question. If I wanted to invest in the Euro (i don't), what's the best way to do that?

dajo9 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Didn't see this coming.

pic.twitter.com/KWeUZj7ALk

— Jack Myers (@_Jersey_Jack) December 31, 2022

S&P 500 closed 2022 at 3,839 https://t.co/iQFYDfBPYJ

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) December 31, 2022

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What's funny about that top chart is if you strip away commodities and currencies (which are not serious considerations for most retail investors), the #2 investment for the year was the 2 year Treasury (only behind the VIX, which is also a nightmare to invest in).

Serious question. If I wanted to invest in the Euro (i don't), what's the best way to do that?

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dimitrig said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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Peloton looks shady af
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/peloton-insiders-sold-nearly-500-million-stock-big-drop-rcna12741

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Why?
Because the CEO sold 16% of his shares after the 6 month lock-up period ended after the IPO in April of 2020?
Get real.

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"One of the most well-accepted facts from decades of research on insider trading is that corporate insiders buy near bottoms and sell near peaks," said Daniel Taylor, an associate professor at the Wharton School.

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Most insiders of a company that raised capital in an IPO sell some of their shares after the lock-up period expires.
There's nothing unusual about this and it would be one helluva "reach" to claim that it has "predictive" value.

As for insider transactions having "predictive" value . . . data shows that they are significant when "clusters" of insiders made trades in a relatively same period. Not just with other executives, but with other executives AND directors.

Studies show that over holding periods of 21 trading days, the abnormal returns by "cluster" purchases were almost TWICE as high as those of non-cluster purchases (3.8% vs 2.0%).

dajo9 said:

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What's funny about that top chart is if you strip away commodities and currencies, the #2 investment for the year was the 2 year Treasury.

Serious question. If I wanted to invest in the Euro (i don't), what's the best way to do that?

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The 2 Year Treasury Note was down 6%.

Easiest way to invest in the Euro without actually buying it is via an ETF.
Check out: FXE

Invesco | Product Detail | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust

dimitrig said:

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Cal_79 said:

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Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

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Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

As an 80 year old the friends I have with that line of thinking back in the day are mostly living on reverse mortgages right now (reference meant to be general but expressing the problem)

Better result: Start early. Save early big. Power of compounding interest makes that Europena lifestyle possible at a young and healthy age. But the GenZs for the most part don't think that way.

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

Disclosure: My points above are aimed at college grads (I think, here). They can work for even those of low socio economic backgrounds but to a lesser degree and a longer time span.

OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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Cal_79 said:

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Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

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Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

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Agreed. This worked for my wife and I. Let us get my gigantic student loans paid off and buy a house with a smaller mortgage as a jumping off point.

OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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Cal_79 said:

---

Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

---

Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

As an 80 year old the friends I have with that line of thinking back in the day are mostly living on reverse mortgages right now (reference meant to be general but expressing the problem)

Better result: Start early. Save early big. Power of compounding interest makes that Europena lifestyle possible at a young and healthy age. But the GenZs for the most part don't think that way.

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

Disclosure: My points above are aimed at college grads (I think, here). They can work for even those of low socio economic backgrounds but to a lesser degree and a longer time span.

---

I am not sure what is wrong with living on a reverse mortgage. If only most people could be so lucky to even have a house with that much equity. You can't take it with you.

I know a lot of people sitting on money that are now too old and sick to do anything with it. I would rather live life when young than wait until I am 60 to do it.

dimitrig said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal_79 said:

---

Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

---

Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

As an 80 year old the friends I have with that line of thinking back in the day are mostly living on reverse mortgages right now (reference meant to be general but expressing the problem)

Better result: Start early. Save early big. Power of compounding interest makes that Europena lifestyle possible at a young and healthy age. But the GenZs for the most part don't think that way.

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

Disclosure: My points above are aimed at college grads (I think, here). They can work for even those of low socio economic backgrounds but to a lesser degree and a longer time span.

---

I am not sure what is wrong with living on a reverse mortgage. If only most people could be so lucky to even have a house with that much equity. You can't take it with you.

I know a lot of people sitting on money that are now too old and sick to do anything with it. I would rather live life when young than wait until I am 60 to do it.

---

The implication was you had to have a reverse mortgage. The problem there is just like living too long may exhaust your retirement funds, so might drain your equity in a reverse mortgage.

Build a nest egg. Money accumulation early is not a goal, but a comfort factor. My wife funded an IRA back in the mid 80s at $2500/year....It has delivered over $300000 over time (most of it still intact, some spent). Now imagine a 25 year old doing that compared to her 43 years at the time. The eighth wonder of the world is intact.

OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal_79 said:

---

Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

---

Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

As an 80 year old the friends I have with that line of thinking back in the day are mostly living on reverse mortgages right now (reference meant to be general but expressing the problem)

Better result: Start early. Save early big. Power of compounding interest makes that Europena lifestyle possible at a young and healthy age. But the GenZs for the most part don't think that way.

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

Disclosure: My points above are aimed at college grads (I think, here). They can work for even those of low socio economic backgrounds but to a lesser degree and a longer time span.

---

I am not sure what is wrong with living on a reverse mortgage. If only most people could be so lucky to even have a house with that much equity. You can't take it with you.

I know a lot of people sitting on money that are now too old and sick to do anything with it. I would rather live life when young than wait until I am 60 to do it.

---

The implication was you had to have a reverse mortgage. The problem there is just like living too long may exhaust your retirement funds, so might drain your equity in a reverse mortgage.

Build a nest egg. Money accumulation early is not a goal, but a comfort factor. My wife funded an IRA back in the mid 80s at $2500/year....It has delivered over $300000 over time (most of it still intact, some spent). Now imagine a 25 year old doing that compared to her 43 years at the time. The eighth wonder of the world is intact.

---

What are you going to do with that equity anyway after you die?

dimitrig said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal_79 said:

---

Resignations for a better job is one thing. Resignations without having another job in hand is something else.

---

Van life, baby!



People, especially young people, feel like they are owned by their possessions. They don't want to be married with two kids working to paying a mortgage and two car payments.

They save up some money at a gig job and then live a while before getting another gig job. If they have skills such as in the trades, writing, or tech-related they can do this indefinitely while seeing the world.

A lot of people under 40 don't want to live to work, but instead work to live European-style.

I know Baby Boomers don't get it, but that's okay. They don't have to.

---

As an 80 year old the friends I have with that line of thinking back in the day are mostly living on reverse mortgages right now (reference meant to be general but expressing the problem)

Better result: Start early. Save early big. Power of compounding interest makes that Europena lifestyle possible at a young and healthy age. But the GenZs for the most part don't think that way.

Spend way, way less than you make at an early age. It works. Also, lets one sleep better in their 20s and have less stress with a funded life.

Disclosure: My points above are aimed at college grads (I think, here). They can work for even those of low socio economic backgrounds but to a lesser degree and a longer time span.

---

I am not sure what is wrong with living on a reverse mortgage. If only most people could be so lucky to even have a house with that much equity. You can't take it with you.

I know a lot of people sitting on money that are now too old and sick to do anything with it. I would rather live life when young than wait until I am 60 to do it.

---

The implication was you had to have a reverse mortgage. The problem there is just like living too long may exhaust your retirement funds, so might drain your equity in a reverse mortgage.

Build a nest egg. Money accumulation early is not a goal, but a comfort factor. My wife funded an IRA back in the mid 80s at $2500/year....It has delivered over $300000 over time (most of it still intact, some spent). Now imagine a 25 year old doing that compared to her 43 years at the time. The eighth wonder of the world is intact.

---

What are you going to do with that equity anyway after you die?

---

Silly question. Answer to same personal. The situation as you grow old, which I can attest, is that if you do it all right, there is a day when you realize "I will run out of time before I run out of money". Now, that is comfortable for the "now" but the first part of that realization may give some qualms. The second half gives comfort. Cheers.

dimitrig said:

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What are you going to do with that equity anyway after you die?

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Hopefully, some of it goes to charitable causes that he and his wife feel strongly about.

DiabloWags said:

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dimitrig said:

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What are you going to do with that equity anyway after you die?

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Hopefully, some of it goes to charitable causes that he and his wife feel strongly about.

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A big part of the plan. Children in 50s, both well positioned due to above practices and a helluva lotta hard work. They will get the bulk. For them it will enhance an already built foundation for them (they both know the lessons of wealth management and practice them). Grandchildren all in their 20s, and also well educated and into great progress with wealth building. Some small help here but with guidance from their parents they will build themselves.

I know this philosophy and practice p*sses off a lot of people, but we have been very, very fortunate with self actuated, hard working kids and grandkids. This, as I see it, is/was my greatest contribution not only to them but to society. All ten of us "pay in", don't "take out". A very lucky man I am.

So yes, this leaves a lot of room for charitable work.

TSLA now at $214

Hope everyone caught this incredible opportunity at the end of last year when the tax selling was finally done.

DiabloWags said:

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TSLA now at $214

Hope everyone caught this incredible opportunity at the end of last year when the tax selling was finally done.

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Unfortunately not at the low, but some in the low 190s, and more at 200, then sold out all not at the top, but two days later. Very happy with not catching things at the bottom, and not selling at the top, but it would be nice.

Waiting now to get back in. The company is great and has a great future, not just with the cars but all the accoutrements that go with an EV auto.

When things get extended I reduce my "greed factor". Very volatile interesting market now. Not indexing time.

TSLA at year end was one of the more "easy" set-ups that I've seen in quite some time.

Musk mid-December selling, analysts lowering estimates due to China, and Q4 sales "soft" all because people were postponing their EV purchase until 2023 for the tax credit.

An easy DOUBLE.

DiabloWags said:

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TSLA at year end was one of the more "easy" set-ups that I've seen in quite some time.

Musk mid-December selling, analysts lowering estimates due to China, and Q4 sales "soft" all because people were postponing their EV purchase until 2023 for the tax credit.

An easy DOUBLE.

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Add to that venom vs. Musk that will trim, potential for so many other aspects of the EV world--lithium. etc., corner on charging stations.

But no matter, when it gets extended, time to trim yourself.

And how about buying a bit of a stock on an overreaction....Take a peek at TOST....Banged badly after big run up....

BOOM!

Had a good day today even though the market cratered.

DiabloWags said:

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BOOM!

Had a good day today even though the market cratered.

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Well done

Thanks!
They have an impressive management team that is firing on all 8 cylinders.
They received CMS reimbursement for their breast cancer reoccurrence (MRD) test.

This test offers a diagnostic lead time of up to 2 years with a median of 8.9 months.
At 89% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The latter means zero false positive rate

They are the LEADER in MRD cancer diagnostics . . . detecting cancer reoccurrence via a blood draw.
When you can do this, you wind up detecting colon cancer coming back 8.5 months sooner than using basic standard of care (imaging) and you can detect breast cancer coming back up to 2 years sooner.

Time for a few Beers.
Cheers!

NTRA announced today that they received coverage by Blue Shield of California for their Signatera pan-cancer test.
The leader in MRD continues to be first to market.

Impressive!

NTRA up again today even though the market COLLAPSES on Powell's hawkish testimony at Humphrey Hawkins.

Looks like the next rate increase will be 50 basis points.
The odds are currently up to 62% of a chance for that.

6 month T-Bills at 5.21%

Dow - 575
Naz - 145

The 2-year yield closed over 5% for the first time since 2007.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-to-testify-to-congress-on-outlook-for-rates-inflation-e4e7f1e3?st=petx9l63h1hkbiw&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Lots of interesting info from this Fed report in Q4 2021, a quarter with about 6.4% inflation but before the Fed began to take down the economy. The point here is that the negative impact of inflation was overblown by the media and was not experienced by individuals in aggregate as that much of a negative. The Fed should have begun gradual quarter point increases in the Fed Funds rate back in Q4 2021 but they did not. Now they are behind the curve and threatening major hikes despite the fact that inflation may have peaked (time will tell). The Fed also should have begun QT back in Q4 2021 but instead they continued QE all the way through Q1 2022.

Here is data from the Q4 2021 Fed survey:
- A record high of 68% said they were personally doing ok or living comfortably, financially speaking
- Adults who could afford a $400 emergency was at a record high of 68%, beating the previous high of 50% in 2013.
- 15% reported a job change in 2021, most of whom said it was an improvement

From the Federal Reserve's annual report on households:

"self-reported financial well-being reached its highest level" since 2013.

"In the fourth quarter of 2021, 78 percent of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially." https://t.co/VChSwhUGBR

— Arthur Delaney 🇺🇸 (@ArthurDelaneyHP) May 23, 2022

---

1.) Household surveys of wealth and confidence (for obvious reasons) are lagging indicators.

2.) It should go without saying that the Fed could not have started any kind of rate hikes in Q4 (let alone QT) unless they had already pulled the plug on their $120 Billion per month bond buying. They never seemed to have a Plan B, just in case they were wrong about inflation being transient. As a defensive measure, they could have (at the very least) started tapering their bond buying last Fall so that they could have been in the position to act more aggressively (with rate hikes) should they have underestimated inflationary pressures.

---

Diablo, we may have underestimated the flexibility of the Fed. Maybe they can raise rates while expanding their balance sheet at the same time. We'll see.

Regional Banks getting crushed.
PacWest down 53% and First Republic down 76%

Schwab still getting pounded.
- $10 to $49

Biggest decline in yields since 1987

10 year yield at 3.44

Was trading 4.0% last week!

Feels like 1994 all over again.

6 rate hikes by the FED and The OC Files for BK.
1 more hike after that and then (as I recall) the FED went on an easing cycle.

The FANGS have had quite the run this year so far.
Looks like the month of October may have been yet another Bear Killer!

NFP at +339,000 and the unemployment rate at 3.7%

The NDX trades as high as 14,595 earlier this morning and has had quite a run since the beginning of the year. Interestingly enough, the markets have recently fed off of the Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal given his article of this past Wednesday claiming that the Fed will "pause" rate hikes at their next meeting in mid-June.

The Fed Funds Futures seem to agree.

They've gone from a 66% probability of looking for a rate increase as of last Friday to a 73% chance of the Fed Funds Rate remaining the same at 5.00 - 5.25%



The Reporter Who Knows What Jerome Powell Is Thinking (nymag.com)

The Nasdaq just had its best FIRST HALF in 40 years .... +32%

TSLA at $278
Up from $105.

But no one here cares.
Shocker.

I'm crossing my fingers that the next half won't be its worst due to some awful event like bank collapse, an escalation of conflict in Ukraine, or a new virus from one of Fauci's labs.