Cal88's version or "realism" is blamelessly accepting that bullies around the world can do whatever they want but that the US is irredeemably flawed and incapable of influencing anything. His realism never extends to accepting that the US has strength due to market power, military might and as the most desirable place for people the world over. Rather he would note that the US should consider itself overmatched by Russia, China, Syria and who knows where else.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:sycasey said:
Taiwan is part of China? I think Taiwan might disagree.
You have zero understanding of Chinese history. It's that kind of naive arrogance and ignorance that might end up bringing WW3 about.
There is no official entity called Taiwan, not even on that island itself. That island is the home to the Republic of China, while the mainland is the People's Republic of China. Both governments claim the other party as theirs.
The US and the rest of the international community have also acknowledged the One China policy, and almost all recognize the PRC as "China", because it represents 98.6% of Chinese population and 99.4% of Chinese territory, rather than the 1.4% who live on the small island near the mainland and represent the other political entity.
Whether out of shortsightedness, ignorance or shear exceptionalist arrogance, politicians like Pelosi as well as Rep. chickenhawks in the McCain/Cheney mold have been pushing the ROC to officially relinquish its status and become an independent republic of Taiwan. This is going to automatically trigger the invasion of this island by the PRC, a war where the US will have to be involved more directly than in Ukraine, in a conflict that could easily spiral into WW3.
It's also a war that the PRC has been preparing for for the last several decades, and a war that they will absolutely win, regardless of what it might cost them in human life or economic loss, or how many American aircraft carriers they will have to sink in the process.
So once again,idiotspeople are leading Taiwan down the primrose path, which would result in them being wrecked. The parallels with Ukraine are striking...
To the extent that anyone can "win" a war between the US and China it wouldn't be China that comes out ahead. Even the Chinese would admit that.
How many wars has China fought lately? I think they will find themselves woefully unprepared compared to the US which has been fighting wars across the globe for the better part of last century and all of this century.
Obviously if there is a "war" between China and Taiwan, China will have its way. And historically China has run wild over its population with reckless disregard and fairly little pushback but a lot has changed in the last few decades. The rise of the Chinese middle class has been incredible and made it harder for the CCP to have its way without worrying about blowback. To be clear, the CCP needs to worry about what Chinese people think about before invading and destroying Taiwan and the US can influence that state of affairs if it should so choose.
This is a good article discussing how things really are.
Quote:
Most in Washington believe that to the extent that Chinese citizens have independent views, they would not dare to share them because of the dangers of doing so.
This simplistic view of Chinese public opinion is off base. People in China have diverse and well-formed views on a wide range of public policy issues. Not all citizens are supportive of current government policies, nor do all their views reflect state propaganda. And, despite the risks, they are willing to share their opinions.
…
By contrast, Pan and Xu's research shows that, on average, wealthier and more educated Chinese are more, not less likely, to hold politically liberal, pro-market, and non-nationalistic views. This is particularly significant at a time when the government is taking an increasingly illiberal, statist, and nationalistic turn. While not a sign that China is on its way to democratization, the data indicate that the party-state must contend with well-formed ideological views among its citizens that diverge with its own and is pursuing policies that face substantial, even if quiet, public opposition.
…
Pan and Xu argue that plenty of Chinese are very patriotic but very few are supportive of war in pursuit of those goals. This is especially true for wealthier, more educated respondents. This finding echoes the results of a survey from two decades ago, which showed that China's emerging middle class was far more internationalist and opposed to militarism than other social groups.
Also, his history of Taiwan is somewhat laughable. My Taiwanese friends certainly don't subscribe to his views.
