Trump won in 2016 in part by running up huge numbers in the "middle suburbs," which are more working class, whiter, and more GOP-leaning than inner suburbs.

Biden shaved down Trump's margins in those regions in 2020. This time Dems shaved them even more:https://t.co/sfbjXYcQwM pic.twitter.com/YC32yO09iu

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 16, 2022

A lot of folks are pointing out that Shapiro ran better than Fetterman. It's true that Shapiro ran a few points better in these particular Trumpy counties as well. Shapiro is a rising star who ran a terrific campaign. I just think he faced a borderline nonexistent opponent.

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 16, 2022

Now that Trump is running again, it's even more significant that Democrats made big strides in 2022 toward rebuilding the Blue Wall. A big part of this is continuing to shave down those GOP margins in working class suburbs and small town and rural areas:https://t.co/sfbjXYcQwM pic.twitter.com/R3Dx1vWeaE

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 16, 2022

This is part of the Trump dilemma for Rs. Trumps America 1st agenda is what developed the inroads with African Americans, Hispanics and white working class. That trifecta is a knee capper to Ds. It's also contradictory to establishment Rs who get on their knees for corporate money (aka open immigration). Other Rs lack credibility re working class populism.

tequila4kapp said:

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This is part of the Trump dilemma for Rs. Trumps America 1st agenda is what developed the inroads with African Americans, Hispanics and white working class. That trifecta is a knee capper to Ds. It's also contradictory to establishment Rs who get on their knees for corporate money (aka open immigration). Other Rs lack credibility re working class populism.

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Sorry, but parts of this are just false. According to Brookings, Biden won 92% of African Americans, vs Hillary's 91%. This is consistent with the average since 2000, so Trump has made no inroads there.

White people made up a slightly smaller percentage of the population in 2020 vs 2016 but it was pretty marginal (72% vs 74%).

You can't look at this chart and tell me that the GOP doesn't have a problem with non-white Americans.

Unit2Sucks said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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This is part of the Trump dilemma for Rs. Trumps America 1st agenda is what developed the inroads with African Americans, Hispanics and white working class. That trifecta is a knee capper to Ds. It's also contradictory to establishment Rs who get on their knees for corporate money (aka open immigration). Other Rs lack credibility re working class populism.

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Sorry, but parts of this are just false. According to Brookings, Biden won 92% of African Americans, vs Hillary's 91%. This is consistent with the average since 2000, so Trump has made no inroads there.

White people made up a slightly smaller percentage of the population in 2020 vs 2016 but it was pretty marginal (72% vs 74%).

You can't look at this chart and tell me that the GOP doesn't have a problem with non-white Americans.

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The GOP has made some gains with non-white voters over the last couple of cycles, but you could also say this is just clawing back the margins they lost with those groups under Obama and the first Trump election. They're still not back to what they had under Bush.

And in the meantime they have lost more suburban and college-educated voters. I think this midterm shows why you don't want to lose them. Those voters always show up to vote.

Numerous sources at the time had Trump up @10 points among AA's. When I Google it now I see, for example, BBC reports which rely on exit polls. Later reports are consistent with what you shared.

Los Angeles is fortunate to have someone like Rick Caruso running for mayor. He’s awesome.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 3, 2022

Big: After trailing for months, Rick Caruso has closed within the margin of error with Karen Bass to become L.A. mayor, according to a new Berkeley/L.A. Times poll. https://t.co/wrOSUibLgP

— Matt Pearce 🦅 (@mattdpearce) November 4, 2022

ICYMI — he’s not Gov. Trainor.

Unlike most California and national Democrats, ⁦@GavinNewsom⁩ is not all about that Bass. And it’s raising some questions in LA and beyond https://t.co/boiLdWdPB9

— Jeremy B. White (@JeremyBWhite) November 3, 2022

“Rick Caruso has blanketed the airwaves in one of the most expensive media markets in the U.S. – spending more than $81 million compared to $11 million by Karen Bass.” https://t.co/OjxK8q1K4h

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 24, 2022

katy perry smiling like a firework while losing most her fanbase over supporting Rick Caruso, before he loses being mayor (2022, colorized) pic.twitter.com/WSu10FcL2F

— elijah daniel (@elijahdaniel) November 17, 2022

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos urges LA to vote for Rick Caruso for mayor in digital ad https://t.co/G8wueYUfGS

— TheWrap (@TheWrap) November 6, 2022

the list of Rick Caruso supporters is genuinely funny

Snoop Dogg, Cenk Uyghur, Chris Pratt, Elon Musk, Gwyneth Paltrow, and the Kardashians pic.twitter.com/NzeBWiPEP7

— Sharon Kuruvilla (@Sharon_Kuruvila) November 16, 2022

If current splits in the mayor's race (51-49 Bass VBM; 55-45 Caruso in-person) were to hold, Bass would need ~62% turnout to win. I would bet the final turnout is more like 52-56%.

That means: Unless E-day VBMs break more decisively for Bass, Caruso would very narrowly win.

— Scott Frazier (@safrazie) November 10, 2022

los angeles, let me put it in a way u can understand:

celebs endorsing karen bass:
kerry washington
natalie portman
john legend
jane fonda
america ferrera
aloe blacc

celebs endorsing rick caruso:
the kardashians
gwyneth paltrow
katy perry
elon musk
chris pratt
scooter braun

— Deanna McDonald (@deannagmcdonald) November 8, 2022

Something that I think gets lost in the discussion of Rick Caruso is that Olivia Jade was aboard his yacht when the college admissions scandal broke

— Julia Moser (@juliamoserrrr) November 9, 2022

Rick Caruso wouldn't be the worst mayor ever. I imagine he'd be somewhat like Riordan.

However, if his blah developments all over LA give some insight into his vision for the future of the city then I'll pass.

Hilarious to sad

Gwennie looks like she just got too big of a whiff of one of her, er, ah, how you say, special scented candles.

For those who don't know: Tom Petty would only let Dems use his songs.

Kari Lake posted a two-minute video featuring Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" to demonstrate her refusal to concede the Arizona race. https://t.co/Ge1iS59Kog

— TheWrap (@TheWrap) November 18, 2022

okaydo said:

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For those who don't know: Tom Petty would only let Dems use his songs.

Kari Lake posted a two-minute video featuring Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" to demonstrate her refusal to concede the Arizona race. https://t.co/Ge1iS59Kog

— TheWrap (@TheWrap) November 18, 2022

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Zombie Zoo is a better fit.

Cant believe that Boepert's opponent conceded as they were tied at 50%/50% and a differential of 511 votes.

Must have been RIGGED!

Sheng Thao: Has a BA from Cal-Berkeley

Loren Taylor: Has a masters from Cal-Berkeley.

By a hair, Sheng Thao pulls ahead over Loren Taylor and if this is indeed the last batch of ballots pre-audit (as @Oaklandside reporters believe and ACVote has implied) then Thao is the next mayor of Oakland. pic.twitter.com/8tXCSyWn4M

— Darrell Owens (@IDoTheThinking) November 19, 2022

tequila4kapp said:

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This is part of the Trump dilemma for Rs. Trumps America 1st agenda is what developed the inroads with African Americans, Hispanics and white working class. That trifecta is a knee capper to Ds. It's also contradictory to establishment Rs who get on their knees for corporate money (aka open immigration). Other Rs lack credibility re working class populism.

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Yup. MAGA vs Country Club GOPe / UniParty / Wall Street Globalists. President Trump also popular w Latinos.

Unit2Sucks said:

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AunBear89 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Not trying to dogpile but I ran some numbers on black voters because statistics are funny things. Yes, the results went from 91% - 6% to 92% - 8%, reducing the differential from 85pp to 84pp in Trump's favor.

But, black voter turnout increased from 16.4M voters to 18.9M voters. That means while Trump's black vote increased from 1.0M to 1.5M voters, the Democratic vote increased from 14.9M to 17.4M voters. Below is the margin of black voters by which the Democrat beat Trump in each election.

2016 - 13.9M black voters
2020 - 15.9M black voters

People hate Trump.

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Thanks - I couldn't find turnout at that level. My sense was that he could have had a higher percentage and that it could have hurt him even more due to a "mix shift." This analysis would support that and, of course, it also supports that for the GOP to win they just need fewer women and people of color voting because those water down the white male vote which is the only demographic that the GOP have an advantage with.

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This is all great information, guys! Sadly, we know well that MAGAts and other RWNJs won't/can't do this type of deep analysis of the data. They'll just pretend that minority voters are stampeding to the polls to vote for Trump and the GQP and leaving the Dems behind.

Liars, hypocrites, and morons.

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You don't need deep analysis to know that the tweet below is what the GOP really needs to become a majority party.

BREAKING: Republicans introduce bill raising voting age to white

— Inspirational Templates (@mynamehear) November 16, 2022

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So typical. Latinos have seen the $6 a gallon gas produced by Democrats, the whacky extreme policies, and are fleeing to the GOP and President Trump.

Edit.

movielover said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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AunBear89 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Not trying to dogpile but I ran some numbers on black voters because statistics are funny things. Yes, the results went from 91% - 6% to 92% - 8%, reducing the differential from 85pp to 84pp in Trump's favor.

But, black voter turnout increased from 16.4M voters to 18.9M voters. That means while Trump's black vote increased from 1.0M to 1.5M voters, the Democratic vote increased from 14.9M to 17.4M voters. Below is the margin of black voters by which the Democrat beat Trump in each election.

2016 - 13.9M black voters
2020 - 15.9M black voters

People hate Trump.

---

Thanks - I couldn't find turnout at that level. My sense was that he could have had a higher percentage and that it could have hurt him even more due to a "mix shift." This analysis would support that and, of course, it also supports that for the GOP to win they just need fewer women and people of color voting because those water down the white male vote which is the only demographic that the GOP have an advantage with.

---

This is all great information, guys! Sadly, we know well that MAGAts and other RWNJs won't/can't do this type of deep analysis of the data. They'll just pretend that minority voters are stampeding to the polls to vote for Trump and the GQP and leaving the Dems behind.

Liars, hypocrites, and morons.

---

You don't need deep analysis to know that the tweet below is what the GOP really needs to become a majority party.

BREAKING: Republicans introduce bill raising voting age to white

— Inspirational Templates (@mynamehear) November 16, 2022

---

So typical. Latinos have seen the $6 a gallon gas produced by Democrats, the whacky extreme policies, and are fleeing to the GOP and President Trump.

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I hope you and the other MAGAts are successful in helping Trump win the GOP primary. He's had the GOP underperforming for 3 elections in a row and you think he's winning people over. He would lose to a ham sandwich in 2024 and will ensure the GOP is wiped out.

By the way, if you want to really understand voting trends, read some articles about what happened in the election. The youth vote came out in force and very much against the GOP and Trump. Latinos comprised 1/5 young voters and they went heavily for the Democrats (40% margin). That trend will only continue.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/midterm-exit-polls-show-that-young-voters-drove-democratic-resistance-to-the-red-wave/

sycasey said:

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movielover said:

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President Trump also popular w Latinos.

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Getting 32% of the vote = "popular."

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

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"President Trump increased his percentage of the Black vote by over 10% last time (going from 8% to 9%), leaving pundits to discuss why it might be that he's suddenly so popular with Black people. Let's listen to our assembled panel of experts as they try and get to the root of this phenomenon... "



(quotation marks made up... but maybe somebody ran this story... pretty sure I heard it multiple times)