Bidenomics

62,992 Views | 803 Replies | Last: 16 days ago by bear2034
dajo9
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DiabloWags said:

dajo9 said:

DiabloWags said:

dajo9 said:

DiabloWags said:

In Q1, Americans earned $3.7 Trillion from interest and dividends at a seasonally annually adjusted rate, which is up roughly $770 Billion from fours years ago.

Thank You Jerome Powell.



President Biden has normalized interest rates. In 2017 the idea of this was called Trumpflation and it was considered a good thing (and due to Trump). Now it's either a bad thing or due to the Fed.

It's really difficult to believe that you actually have an MBA.
The President has nothing to do with "normalizing" interest rates, let alone monetary policy.





I just know Trump was given credit for something that didn't happen in 2017. Now that it is happening I guess the current President deserves the same credit.

That's some of the most IGNORANT "whataboutism" that's ever been posted here.

For an MBA to actually claim that President Biden has normalized interest rates . . . is not just embarrassing, it's comical.

Why Normalize? | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

What Is Monetary Policy Normalization? | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)






Too bad you don't get it
bear2034
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136 Days Til No Joe said:




This is putting a strain on American middle-income households, with "67% reporting that their income is lagging behind the cost of living, according to Primerica."

bear2034
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It should be noted that the Saudis move off the petrodollar last week after many years occurred under Biden's watch. What are the implications?
Cal88
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bear2034 said:


It should be noted that the Saudis move off the petrodollar last week after many years occurred under Biden's watch. What are the implications?

Massive, but very gradual, although the global political instability could trigger a faster onset. Good interview here, though a bit on the alarmist side:

DiabloWags
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Cool story.
It's the other way around.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
bearister
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Trump vs. Biden records on running up debt


https://www.axios.com/2024/06/24/trump-biden-debt-deficits-election

"Former President Trump ran up the national debt by about twice as much as President Biden, according to a new analysis of their fiscal track records.

For Trump, the biggest non-COVID drivers of higher public debt were his signature tax cuts enacted in 2017 (causing $1.9 trillion in additional borrowing) and bipartisan spending packages (which added $2.1 trillion)."

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
tequila4kapp
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bearister said:

Trump vs. Biden records on running up debt


https://www.axios.com/2024/06/24/trump-biden-debt-deficits-election

"Former President Trump ran up the national debt by about twice as much as President Biden, according to a new analysis of their fiscal track records.

For Trump, the biggest non-COVID drivers of higher public debt were his signature tax cuts enacted in 2017 (causing $1.9 trillion in additional borrowing) and bipartisan spending packages (which added $2.1 trillion)."
This goes very much to my ongoing rant / point / position - what does it even mean to be a Republican anymore? Certainly not fiscal responsibility.
AunBear89
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Since the days of Reagan, being Republican has never meant being fiscally responsible. They have only paid lip service to the concept.


And that is the first big lie the GOP rank and file morons gobbled up and continue to regurgitate as if it were fact.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
oski003
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tequila4kapp said:

bearister said:

Trump vs. Biden records on running up debt


https://www.axios.com/2024/06/24/trump-biden-debt-deficits-election

"Former President Trump ran up the national debt by about twice as much as President Biden, according to a new analysis of their fiscal track records.

For Trump, the biggest non-COVID drivers of higher public debt were his signature tax cuts enacted in 2017 (causing $1.9 trillion in additional borrowing) and bipartisan spending packages (which added $2.1 trillion)."
This goes very much to my ongoing rant / point / position - what does it even mean to be a Republican anymore? Certainly not fiscal responsibility.


This is a good argument why Biden > Trump.
bearister
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AunBear89 said:

Since the days of Reagan, being Republican has never meant being fiscally responsible. They have only paid lip service to the concept.


And that is the first big lie the GOP rank and file morons gobbled up and continue to regurgitate as if it were fact.


Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
bear2034
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I thought the very wealthy welcomed Trump's tax cuts?
AunBear89
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It's cute that anyone believes any of this. Of course they won't support him publicly - can't afford to piss off over half your customers.

But Citizens United made sure that they can support him as much as they want and no one needs to know.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
bear2034
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So you say things publicly and behave differently privately due to fear of other cult members? I agree.
As for their customers, two-thirds of the country is MAGA.
AunBear89
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Huge reading comprehension fail, mixed with absurd false equivalency, capped with an outright fabrication (two thirds).

Morons gonna moron.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
bear2034
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Cults don't end well, they really don't.
dajo9
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PCE inflation was 0.0% in the month of May and 2.6% year over year. And wages?


Quote:

Despite some signs of cooling in the labor market, solid wage growth continues to power consumer spending. Wages and salaries rose 0.7%. On an inflation-adjusted basis, real disposable income jumped 0.5%, the most since January 2023
This is a booming economy. Thank you President Biden.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/fed-s-favored-price-gauge-rises-at-slowest-pace-in-six-months?srnd=homepage-americas
bear2034
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dajo9 said:


This is a booming economy. Thank you President Biden.

Should Joe Biden start learning how to code or will AI make software engineering jobs obsolete in the next ten years?
dajo9
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In case you missed it, the S&P 500 is currently 47% higher than the highest point of Traitor Trump's Presidency. All this while reducing the deficit (unlike Trump) and a booming jobs market and booming wages.

Fiscal policy matters (manufacturing legislation, energy tax credits). Presidential action matters (student loan debt relief, anti-trust). President Joe Biden is the best President with the best results of our lifetime.
118 Days Til No Joe
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dajo9 said:

In case you missed it, the S&P 500 is currently 47% higher than the highest point of Traitor Trump's Presidency. All this while reducing the deficit (unlike Trump) and a booming jobs market and booming wages.

Fiscal policy matters (manufacturing legislation, energy tax credits). Presidential action matters (student loan debt relief, anti-trust). President Joe Biden is the best President with the best results of our lifetime.


Fake Tapper looks incredulous at the Biden Campaign claiming Biden has more stamina than George Clooney



Also LOL

DiabloWags
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JUNE CPI comes in at 3.0% vs 3.3% in May

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dajo9
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President Biden's unprecedented soft landing is nailing the landing as 2nd qtr GDP came in at 2.8% vs. an expected 2.1%.

Thank you President Biden and the Federal Reserve
dajo9
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PCE inflation up only 2.5% year over year. President Biden's return to normalcy is complete.
bear2034
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Unemployment rises. Slow job growth stokes recession fears.
DiabloWags
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bear2034 said:

Unemployment rises. Slow job growth stokes recession fears.


Must be Biden's monetary policy.
The Fed has been too tight for too long.

Lmfao.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
bear2034
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DiabloWags said:

bear2034 said:

Unemployment rises. Slow job growth stokes recession fears.
Must be Biden's monetary policy.
The Fed has been too tight for too long.

Lmfao.

Kamalanomics is not the answer to Bidenomics.
calbear93
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bear2034 said:

DiabloWags said:

bear2034 said:

Unemployment rises. Slow job growth stokes recession fears.
Must be Biden's monetary policy.
The Fed has been too tight for too long.

Lmfao.

Kamalanomics is not the answer to Bidenomics.
The problem with tribalists with zero leadership and business experience who claim that the president deserves credit when things are going well is that the president will also be blamed when things are going poorly.

People with actual skin in the game are seeing the lowered revenues and lowered guidance for short-cycle companies. They also have been seeing the PMI below 50 for most of the time. These are the canary in the coal mine. People with no actual insight or ability to read indicators following old data and claiming that soft landing has been achieved only reveal their zero expertise and constantly making the wrong call.

Companies are still burning through inventory and are reducing demand for B2B products that do not have long lead time. Government and military are cutting back on their budget. We still need to see if this is a reflection of pushing orders back or actual reduction in future demand. But with any uncertainty, whether secular trends and tax rates, etc., CFOs will cut back on headcount (which are high, fixed expenses) to try to protect as much operating margin as possible in a lower demand environment.

Too much of consumer demand had been paid for with expensive debt. We are reaching a cap where people are now cutting back on spending and consumer companies that thought that they could raise prices are finding unwilling consumers.

With wealth and financial comfort decreasing right before election, the last thing people actually want to hear is more government intrusion because, for most people, the government keep borrowing, taxing, and spending will not be viewed as a net positive for themselves. They like their entitlements, but when they hear government spending, they will hear how the government is spending their money on entitlement for others.

That is the key path to victory for Trump. Of course, Trump is not very disciplined and may get back into name calling, racial attacks, and personal grievance. Of course, the liberals have also failed to be disciplined in the past and have delved into failed progressive and woke policies (why the hell Harris ever supported defund the police talk when she had been the top prosecutor is still baffling). But all things being equal, the public generally have trusted Republicans more on economics (whether justified or not). That is not a good sign for Harris. Unfortunately.
tequila4kapp
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calbear93 said:

bear2034 said:

DiabloWags said:

bear2034 said:

Unemployment rises. Slow job growth stokes recession fears.
Must be Biden's monetary policy.
The Fed has been too tight for too long.

Lmfao.

Kamalanomics is not the answer to Bidenomics.
The problem with tribalists with zero leadership and business experience who claim that the president deserves credit when things are going well is that the president will also be blamed when things are going poorly.
You have not been paying attention to this board.

If statistics show that things are good - regardless of what people actually experience in their actual lives - Biden is the greatest President that ever was.

If anything happens that indicates things are not going good with the economy then the President's policies have NO impact WHATSOEVER on the economy.

Also, anything bad happening at any point in time during Biden's administration is still Trump's fault.
dajo9
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Trump has called it so it must be real. "The Great Depression of 2024" (and probably WWIII).

https://www.threads.net/@gbmusicmaster/post/C-StRebu58q/?xmt=AQGzl1Z_eUKf8gl--vMPunIYBSllQVaRLeLWwDvgj99Edw
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:



If statistics show that things are good - regardless of what people actually experience in their actual lives - Biden is the greatest President that ever was.

If anything happens that indicates things are not going good with the economy then the President's policies have NO impact WHATSOEVER on the economy.

Also, anything bad happening at any point in time during Biden's administration is still Trump's fault.

The problem with this board (and thread) is that 95% of the people posting here have zero economic and monetary policy background. Even people with MBA's like Dajo have this bizarre knowledge base that claims that Biden is in charge of monetary policy at the FED and that's why the stock market has been so spectacular.

And then there are the Trumpanzees who can't grasp that we are currently pumping record amounts of domestic crude oil at 13.0 million barrels per day and more than any other country in the world.

Make no mistake, when it comes to the economy and the financial markets the FED Chairman is the most powerful person in this country.

Not the President, not Congress, and certainly not the "stable genius" who doesn't have an f-ing clue.

Note: Today's market sell-off was care of the most crowded trade ever.... the yen carry trade.

That is all.





"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dajo9
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DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:



If statistics show that things are good - regardless of what people actually experience in their actual lives - Biden is the greatest President that ever was.

If anything happens that indicates things are not going good with the economy then the President's policies have NO impact WHATSOEVER on the economy.

Also, anything bad happening at any point in time during Biden's administration is still Trump's fault.

The problem with this board (and thread) is that 95% of the people posting here have zero economic and monetary policy background. Even people with MBA's like Dajo have this bizarre knowledge base that claims that Biden is in charge of monetary policy at the FED and that's why the stock market has been so spectacular.

And then there are the Trumpanzees who can't grasp that we are currently pumping record amounts of domestic crude oil at 13.0 million barrels per day and more than any other country in the world.

Make no mistake, when it comes to the economy and the financial markets the FED Chairman is the most powerful person in this country.

Not the President, not Congress, and certainly not the "stable genius" who doesn't have an f-ing clue.

Note: Today's market sell-off was care of the most crowded trade ever.... the yen carry trade.

That is all.






Provide a link
DiabloWags
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Borrow at ZERO interest rates in Japanese Yen to fund your positions of the "Magnificent Seven" in the U.S.
And when the BoJ raises rates interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% (the largest rate hike since 2007) you get forced out of your U.S. equity positions because the Yen rose relative to the USD and increased your break-even financing costs to the extreme.

Last week, the Yen surged nearly 5% against the greenback.
Today, it was up another 2.2%

This is basic Econ 101.
Perhaps they never taught this at dajo's MBA school.



How the Little Known Carry Trade Is Destroying the Market Today (aol.com)

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off? (aol.com)

Why Japan's "Carry Trade" Is Causing a Global Stock Meltdown - 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com)

Yen Carry Trade Unwind Is Sending Shockwaves Through the Stock Market - Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

This May Be 1987-Type Slide, Ed Yardeni Says, Seeing Policy Shifts (yahoo.com)

JPY MXN: Global Carry Trade Unwind Extends as Peso Sinks, Yen Surges - Bloomberg





"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dajo9
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DiabloWags said:

Borrow at ZERO interest rates in Japanese Yen to fund your positions of the "Magnificent Seven" in the U.S.
And when the BoJ raises rates interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% (the largest rate hike since 2007) you get forced out of your U.S. equity positions because the Yen rose relative to the USD and increased your break-even financing costs to the extreme.

Last week, the Yen surged nearly 5% against the greenback.
Today, it was up another 2.2%

This is basic Econ 101.
Perhaps they never taught this at dajo's MBA school.



How the Little Known Carry Trade Is Destroying the Market Today (aol.com)

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off? (aol.com)

Why Japan's "Carry Trade" Is Causing a Global Stock Meltdown - 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com)

Yen Carry Trade Unwind Is Sending Shockwaves Through the Stock Market - Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

This May Be 1987-Type Slide, Ed Yardeni Says, Seeing Policy Shifts (yahoo.com)

JPY MXN: Global Carry Trade Unwind Extends as Peso Sinks, Yen Surges - Bloomberg






Not a link for the carry trade, silly. For what you think I said. So I can explain the economics of it to you.
DiabloWags
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dajo9 said:




Not a link for the carry trade, silly. For what you think I said. So I can explain the economics of it to you.

Sadly, you're just not very bright.
You and your MBA are a total waste of time.
You're in the same category as Oski and that Bearscat clown.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/global-carry-trade-unwind-extends-as-peso-sinks-yen-surges?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyMjkxMDYxMywiZXhwIjoxNzIzNTE1NDEzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSFBYSk1UMVVNMFcwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTE0NjgyRTVEQjI0RDgyOEVGOTIxMzA1M0U4NzhDMiJ9.lOQt48Cfx9fm7eB_xGVlGOqa89Lg-7itqomW3UPyrdg

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

dajo9 said:




Not a link for the carry trade, silly. For what you think I said. So I can explain the economics of it to you.

Sadly, you're just not very bright.
You and your MBA are a total waste of time.
You're in the same category as Oski and that Bearscat clown.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/global-carry-trade-unwind-extends-as-peso-sinks-yen-surges?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyMjkxMDYxMywiZXhwIjoxNzIzNTE1NDEzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSFBYSk1UMVVNMFcwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTE0NjgyRTVEQjI0RDgyOEVGOTIxMzA1M0U4NzhDMiJ9.lOQt48Cfx9fm7eB_xGVlGOqa89Lg-7itqomW3UPyrdg




Why the need to insult me here? Is it because you pooped your diaper again and insulting folks makes you feel better?
dajo9
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People love to attack me with straw men. Even more fun when they then run away and say things like, I'm not worth it. Really? Because it wasn't me that called you out by name from nowhere. That was you who called me out with a false statement and then ran away because you couldn't defend it.
Here is something I never said:

Quote:

Biden is in charge of monetary policy at the FED and that's why the stock market has been so spectacular.
But most finance professionals I have come across only have a superficial understanding of economics so I can understand why a finance professional might think I said that. They typically think understanding finance means understanding economics. They typically think saying thing like, taxes just take money out of people's pockets, is a profound economic statement rather than just a profit maximizing dogma for themselves.

So let me explain a few things about interest rates. There are a ton of them. The Fed controls the overnight rate banks charge each other (Fed Funds Rate). The finance world is obsessed with the Fed (more so than is deserved even with the very strong effect the Fed has on the finance world). Partly a phenomenon of 24 hour news and partly a phenomenon of needing somebody to blame for the myriad things out of their control in their, admittedly, difficult job. So some finance professionals think the Fed controls all interest rates (influence is not control). Go ahead ask some of them around you. You'll hear a lot of crazy stuff.

When I say something like, Biden has normalized rates, I am talking about the economics based theoretical neutral rate. This is the theoretical rate which supports full employment and is not inflationary. But finance people are Fed obsessed and sometimes think any mention of interest rates is a commentary on rates controlled by the Fed (some finance people have the crazy notion that the Fed controls all rates). In reality the Fed isn't so much setting a Feds Funds Rate (that sounds easy) - they are setting a Fed Funds Rate relative to the theoretical neutral rate that will deliver the desired result they are looking for. In other words, they are adjusting to a target they can't see because it is an economic theory.

So what drives the theoretical neutral rate (R*)? Below is a link from the CFA Institute (I'm pretty sure I have mentioned I used to be a CFA. But I stopped paying dues, so no more).

Quote:

R* is widely believed to be determined by real forces that structurally affect the balance between savings and investment in an economy. This includes potential economic growth, demographics, risk aversion, and fiscal policy, among others.
Fiscal policy? You don't say. Let's say the Fed sets their rate at 2% in 2012 - that is contractionary because the neutral rate is way below 2%. Let's say the Fed sets their rate at 2% in 2022 - that is expansionary because the neutral rate is way above 2%. In both cases the neutral rate was abnormal so the Fed, in order to get the result they desire, had to respond to reality with abnormal rates. That is what I mean when I say the Fed is the tail, not the dog. The neutral rate is the rate that Biden has normalized (if the Fed doesn't mess it up by leaving their rate too high for too long).

Here is a hypothetical. Let's say the economy is fine. GDP is 2%, inflation is 2%, unemployment is 2%, the Fed Funds rate is 2%, and the theoretical neutral rate is 2%. The Feds monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary. The Fed says, don't touch a thing. The President disagrees and convinces Congress that now is the time for across the board 80% tax rates. The economy crashes. The Fed says, I told you not to touch a thing, this is your problem, I'm not changing anything and leaves their rate at 2%. The Fed hasn't done anything but their policy has gone from neutral to contractionary. What changed? Fiscal policy and the economics based theoretical neutral rate of interest.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/07/10/in-search-of-the-elusive-neutral-interest-rate/
 
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